That is what Estimators do. When they don't have drawings. Ask one...

well then you know it is representative of the kind of rate for a certain kind of person and can be used as a Benchmark. The people minding that machine maybe don't cost $160 like in an Engineering shop, but my figure of $100 has always been realistic.

do you know what a Blended Rate is?

a professional Estimator (I am not) could come up with an estimate based on those photos with +- 30% accuracy. the processor is a primary piece of equipment. With that, you have:
- several vessels
- lots of piping
- etc..

full cost for build-out, including all labor, and commissioning easily $1-2M.

I work with labor cost daily. The Blended rate we use where I am now is somewhere between $100 and $200/hour. It is an engineering shop.

From what I read, the DEC got sick and tired of all the phone calls and was being sarcastic. I believe the truth is everybody else realized it made no economic sense before spending $25M dollars and not getting any sales.

No one said it was the final Milestone in the Project Plan, that is just the way JBI marketed it and everybody on this board believed it.

actually looks like JBI is in for a bit of a fall Brig. Check out the chart:



The A/D line looks to be leveling out and the good old Trusty MFI is indicating it is headed South.

Look Out Below!!!

those facts are "weak". they lost $25 M.

- permits should not even be recognized as an accomplishment.
= political endorsement smells of a scam. Helpful but materially useless.
- every company gets sales.
- more processors?? it is about time.

all in all..... <yawn>.

anybody who has even shared lunch with an Estimator would know that the 200k Cost figure for that machine is a joke. I have seen pictures of it, and btw often Estimators work from pictures, not even drawings.

The Catalyst is a SECRET... ooooohhhh... and therefore impossible to properly evaluate.

and I never said they would not pass a stack test, get a permit, or even make any fuel... i just doubt they will ever make money.

you have about summed it up. The fact of the matter is Mike, my experience (or anyone else's for that matter) is about the best DD there is. For example, I work on a daily basis with Cost. I Forecast Cost. I know how much people Cost. I also know roughly how much that machine Costs. I could care less what JBI says.

Some of what I am saying is conjecture, such as my comment about the catalyst. What I have seen cannot be taken seriously. Likewise on the Margins.

And I have worked on projects with Permits. Lots of them. I know how they fit in. They are a given. The fact that this has become some kind of media event (Senators and all) is a joke. And every project I have ever done in industry is with the goal of Mass Production in mind. that is the final Milestone in the Plan... not a Permit... LOLOL>>

you are corrrect. I posted all the way from 1.05 all the way up to 7.00, beyond... and then all the way down... and then I stopped posting because of other interests. now it is back up..

At the end of the day this stock is very erratic and risky. I was right and wrong at various points along the way... it does not really matter what time frame you pick.

All that matters is the long Run. We shall see.

actually, I have missed a 50% loss, because I started posting here in earnest when it was at 7.00. I am sure many here are still under water.

good post... but...

I like this statement:

"
The first category are companies producing a revolutionary product that has no current market and they generally need to spend significant money on marketing. This is a very risky endeavor because the product may not catch on due to lack of interest or insufficient/poor marketing"

probably a great example was OS2 vs Microsoft Windows. I never played that much with OS2, but anybody I talked to said it was the superior O/S. It is all about Marketing and winning the channel. They don't call them Microslop for nothing.

Anyway, I disagree and am at the very best skeptical about your investment thesis. Frankly, if it were true we would have seen better evidence of it by now.

This about sums it up:

"JBII fits into neither of these categories as they are producing a valuable commodity product that nobody else can produce with these kind of margins. They have virtually unlimited free feedstock to enable them to create fuel with massive margins. Their marketing costs for fuel are very low relative to most startups. "

- that no one else can produce?? Hardly. I highly doubt that. I think this catalyst is very run of the mill, no matter what IsleChem says. Any large company could kick their butt on economics.
- the margins have never been proven. we will wait and see.
- "Free" feedstock? doubt that too. what about logistics and handling costs... ??
- the machines are inexpensive?? that is poppycock as well. They costs I have seen are a gross underestimation.
- lastly, what you call a hurdle should be a given (permits?.. give me a break, initial sales?.. come on try harder... mass production?... please.. )

why is it that people think I am concerned about being on camera? And why would people spend time trying to identify people on camera? Just wondering... what exactly are you into anyway?

I could care less about the security cameras.

I am sure that JB would be happy to talk to me..

not really... why not? it would be interestng to see if there has been any changes (or any activity, or at least a barbecue going on). Unfortunately, I am working right now... it would have to be after-hours. I wonder if they are burning the midnight.... er.. Fuel.

it is difficult, but actually JBI is just down the road. Heck, I may do another visit to do some fact-finding. I wonder if they cleaned up that porch?

I will respond to your post because you responded to my new information and... because I think your nickname is kind of cool. Like betting on football pools because of the cool jersey colors.

Your first statements are correct. That is why startup companies like JBI are a bad investment. I have watched several. That is why you have to let them hit the beach or otherwise crash and burn, then see if there is something left to salvage.

You comment about the existing contracts accounting for full production is interesting. I have found that most analysis performed by outside investors, including my own, is flawed or otherwise unrealistic. Even if what you are saying is true, that the contracts will occupy all of their existing production capacity, that does not account for much and doe snot mean they will be profitable.

Frankly, it is a joke that they have that huge facility with only 1 assembled machine.

several. I am working on a couple right now, $1,2 Billion and $150M. What I find really interesting is that the place where I worked that had projects from $1M to $50M had better Project management. Cost really has nothing to do with it once you are over $1M.
Actually, I might find a new job...

actually, i give you credit. You have summed it up quite well and are being quite objective. I look at high-technology companies all of the time. They are always close to success... it is mostly an illusion. To pick real winners like RIM is quite difficult. You will wait years while they are "almost profitable".

That is why the share price is not justified. I don't know how it happened, it calls into question the market efficiency of the OTC.

I just know from observation that it cannot possibly stay up here... and I almost never invest in companies that are not close to breaking even. JBI is nowhere near that and the fact that they JUST got permitted after a year of promises is nothing to do backflips about.

you happen to have picked a low point for the stock.... what about from January last year to now... or mid-February? That like a year and several months...

try


-50%. LOLOLOL ROFLMAO LOLOLOL ROFLMAO

give it time...

Basically, as an investment, this stock is a load of crap. What did they lose last year, $25M? That is the budget of one of the projects I manage, for a profit!!! I just don't lose that kind of money. The fact that they just got their permits after a year of saying they were imminent is proof in itself. They have very few contracts.. it is all Marketing/ PR. Every company needs contracts in order to survive? How do investors know that these contracts are enough to make them profitable?

It is only a matter of time and some event, like financials being released... to make this house of cards collapse.

LOOK OUT BELOW!!!!!!!!!!

well i must say I am glad that JBI got a permit. where I have worked for the last 5 years, this would be a given. No big news... just part of the plan... it does make me take them a bit more seriously.

But, the current share price is way OVERINFLATED. there is no way they can maintain this share price.

LOOK OUT BELOW!!!!
it will maintain this price... w-p-f!!!!!!!!!!

well I guess that it just it... it is all about Long-Term impetus. JBII has none. I am not sure why the stock has recovered. I just think the timing is kind of funny, seeing that earlier this year when the stock was in the tank it seemed as if JB did nto even WANT to have a shareholder meeting. I don't blame him. The security force he would have had to have hired would be worth mentioning in the financial statements, it would have cost so much!!! Suddenly the stock is up, so let;s have an AGM. Based on what? WHere are the sales...??

THere is nothing to hold this stock up there, so I predict it will crash again. It is just gravity. Oh there may be some other reason come up.. he may delay financials again, but the simple fact is that he HAD to get the stock price up in order to even have a meeting in the first place.

JBII's story has NOT improved dramatically at all. He is still in the test laboratory uncommercialized stage. There has been NO expansion anywhere. He has ONE contract.. Whoop de doo. he has his family involved in it and that blending station...

He should be making money hand over fist by now. He should be doing that by selling to refineries like he said he would.

Can't imagine why it is up where it is. Must be that the markets are imperfect. Makes me want to stay away from the OTC altogether.

As an investment, unless there was some "event" that I could predict with accuracy that would affect the stock price, I tend to look for Long-Term trends and stable charts. This chart is not stable.

THe only way i would invest in the OTC is if i KNEW something was going to happen... like a restaurant opening... by the founder of a huge high-tech company... had it happen to me..

no such event here... JBI has not changed much in the last year.

With JBI where it is now... it is down 50% from when I started posting... over one year ago. And I don't need to pull up a post in order to prove that. I am sure you can figure that one out...

actually... the previous crash was because he did not file his financial statements. It had nothing to do with the AGM. All I am saying is that he had to do something to get the price up or he would not have had the guts to stand up in front of investors and try to tell them the stock was worth anything. For one thing, the armor he would have had to wear would have been too heavy!!

I knew that JBI would have to get the stock price up somehow before they had a shareholders meeting. Look for it to crash after!!! Like last time...

so how much fuel have they sold and where is the news of the sales? it has been OVER a year since this was promised and it should have happened by now. But then again.. fuel sales do not have anything to do wioth expansion... WHAT SALES??

I am saying a year because that is how long it is goign to take to:

- find a partner through SSMC.. or whatever...
- negotiate a deal
- build the plant
- startup and commission the plant


oh i forgot.. find a customer.. hope they don't run out of MONEY first.

seems much simpler to just SELL SOME FUEL.

I have no idea how to wash a hog. Sounds messy. I am not going to look up the Consent Order again, but it allows sales for a period of time, is contingent upon JBI gettign fully permitted, and is clearly an attempt by this government agency to bend over backwards (not doing backflips mind you, just plain bending over...) to allow these guys to get going in business. An opportunity which seems to have been wasted by JBI.

JBI said it COULD sell to refineries at 700% profit, so it SHOULD.

I am not a shareholder, but I would rather hear of a single fuel sale than of complicated and contingent deals that result in no immediate revenue, make them reliant on someone else, and require time(no less than 1 year) to come to fruition. I am guessing a year to do a deal and get a plant up and running.

In the meantime I am going to go and wash off that pink pig of mine (I think hog is just another name for a pig isn't it?)). It needs new wings anyway...

Permitting is necessessary for JBI to be taken seriously. Endless JVs are just a promise of success, not success itself.

Yes they most certainly do, except that everything is much easier if they are on their customer/ partners sites. They can piggyback off of the site permit. All they have to do is to modify (with the partner's help)the existing permit. These dirty belching sites may appear to be pollutive to the uninitiated observer, but in reality they are tightly regulated and extremely careful.

I should know, I was at a mine site today and drove right by the tailings pond. What a mess!! However, I do know that this mine has a complicated system for ensuring that wastewater emanating from this site meets stringent pollution standards in parts per billion. I worked at the consulting firm that dis the design for it.

Anyway, that illuminated this latest news as a bit of a ruse. Yes it seems like a great deal for JBII, but the fact is, nothing is on the table. Like all great smokescreens, no money will change hands until there is a paying customer. Everything else is contingent. But wait a minute... what about the cost of the JBII plant!!! Not quite true... well I guess that is JBII's cost. Lots of if's as well. Contingency all over the place. Having the jBI machine on company premises will cost the customer money, but will save them money in avoiding tipping fees. It is hard to say what the economics are without more details, but it seems like the way JBII should have gone a long time ago. I worked for a company in the industrial gasses business that located their equipment on customer premise as their normal way of doing business. it makes sense.

Unfortunately, none of this detracts from the basic fact that JBI promised investors to be able to sell fuel in a much simpler fashion, but just selling directly to refineries. And in order to do that, they need permitting. I am not sure where they are at, but permits are an important detail. Tney should not be the main focus, but without them they cannot operate.

Anyway, this is something I predicted a long time ago and a great way for JBI to do business if they can make it work. It also detracts nicely from the fact that they have no fuel sales, which is reliant on permitting. A lack of permitting means that they do not have business planning basics under control and may not be aware of the costs of doing business 9gettign permits means investing in the proper capital equipment). I am afraid it may merely continue to dangle the carrot for investors by promising a rich source of customers that may not materialize ever. Another thing I questioned is the small finder's fee (5%)?? Does not seem like much. I can't imagine what motivated that paltry overrider on the JBI business.

every company must get new deals to at least keep the pipeline full... in the LR getting a deal is, in the end, no BIG DEAL.

so I have not been reading the board much lately, but it seems to me as if people here are expecting some big news.

Question.... why?

Is there something I don't know?? ( I know there is an obvious answer that just popped into your head... don't bother)

Seriously... this stock has recently behaved as it always does. It goes up for no apparent reason, then abruptly crashes again on some meaningless news. The exact opposite of what one would expect.

There can only be one conclusion: the stock is being manipulated in the worst way. There is no "market" for this stock. I am not sure who or how, but it is definitely being done by people who EXPECT something to be happening (or who lead others to EXPECT something to happen). When it does happen (the news) it does not meet expectations.

This last press release was obviously an afterthought. Some news there, but nothing really concrete. just possibilities as usual.

Congrats to JBII for not totally collapsing after losing $25 Million dollars in one year (gasp!!) and for the interesting action over the last few weeks. Looks like it will find a new level around 1.60. Not sure why... but that is another topic.

Thoughts??

right,,,....

my oh my.. what a day. i think this is a very dangerous stock. I have never seen such price movement with no reason or news.... and such negative action when anything is revealed. Some people must have been disappointed and started a rout. obviously being speculated heavily and manipulated.. entirely unpredictable.

what is the expression?.. Caveat Emptor!!

nice little uplifting press release, but IMO not enough to boost the stock price any further. Itis a bit of an explanation for the current upswing. As already posted, I don't like little deals involving referrals and percentages. No substance.

and about the most negative disclaimer I have ever read...

don't liek the smell of this little tidbit. any time there is no actual commerce but someone wants a piece of the action, I smell trouble...

just sell some oil JB!!!

well, looks like the CFO has resigned. That is always a bad sign, usually indicative of financial practises that he can't abide by. That, coupled with this recent unexplainable price runup (most likely due to tacky promotion tactics) means that those shareholders who are finally above water should....

...

...

SELL NOW!!

GET OUT!!!

TAKE SOME PROFIT!!!

ah stocks do this. It is a temporary aberration and will go back down. What was the reason for this anyway? I can see no news or event that caused this upward spike? But, I have seen these things happen before.

IMO this fuel would power a car or a lawnmower just fine, the biggest unknown appears to be whether JBII can sell their fuel through what channel. I think that although a vehicle would run on it, I am not sure if anyone knows what the sales channel ius and whether or not JBII has all of their regulatory ducks in a row. I think their current polkan ios to sell to secondary markets (direct to business that use fuel for heating purposes, etc.) I am not sure what the margins or sales potential of those channels is.

basic economics implies that your argument is flawed. If they had only a miniscule amount of saleable fuel and could get $70/barrel or whatever the current WTF rate (is that right??) they would sell it and get their money. The fact that they are not implies that they are selling larger volume, exactly as yyou are saying. If that is the case and they are "negotiating" the only reason for the other side not to be buying immediately would be to get a lower price. Just common sense. So time passing is not a good thing...