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Bobwill sorry to be so late but was out all day trying to earn $'s
Usually I use short term charts especially for stocks. For the major market I look at Inv Bus Daily charts. There we see tripple top at 9250 area and a double at 8500 area.Stocastics are over sold so timing looks to me like we could have run back and test either area.
A service I subscribe to had a long term chart matching the dow back in the 1929-34 era with the current dow from Oct 07 over it. Shows a mirror pattern which indicates we should get a test run back up then a much larger drop. Time is a guess. Then we also just had the 20 month drop below the 40 month. In the past this lead to 25-30plus % drop so we go to 5000 area.After seeing charts from today I fear we may not test the 8500 and if we get a pop its back to 7500 area. Just my first line but need more data.
Now the real scare is after a test from 5000 and at race back to 5000 if this falls we get to see 2500 or even 1500. I have seen calls for a full revert to the mean which began in 1974. This calls for the starting point of 775 area. That requires the bear to last into 2014 the full 40 year cycle of the bottom beginning of the bull to the return bottom of this bear.
If we get that there may very well be 1920-30's gang war. Then we had no booz so Mafia etc fought for control and bribed government. Today its drug lords and yes we do see what the politicans are doing. If they don't pay taxes and sell senate seats how deep does that run. Mexico has cities now under drug gang control.What is not being reported in our country?
bobwill what about a kinko's or mailboxes etc maybe your insurance agent or bank will take one for you.
bobwill if you get me a fax # I'll fax a chart. It may be in a day or 2. The color just went out of our printer.
Dane you must be reading some of the same long term charts and confirming reports as I. However over blown stochastics indicate we should get a pop up Dow any day now. How ever the ides of march can blow winds either way. At any rate we should see 8500 maybe 9250, I doubt we get much more then that by late spring early summer then 6000 will be taken out big time. JMO However if news on ERHE is real major market action will have little if any effect on us. Big money always gets part of the action.
So Pathfinderis available this fall. Contracting doesn't necessarily mean drill next week. There are suport products which also must be brought into place.Looks like the right time frame to me. 2nd 1/2 09
emdyal
does NS stan forNova Scotta?
Degenerate with the likkly hood of 12 wells to be drill in 12 months why not stay in the game. This is the oil game it over until the bit stops.What the heck at afew more months. The SP will be up if you need $'s you can take a few. Oh BTW what about the EEZ game 2 why fold now
Dane we traded at .24 yesterday so we are within the pevious days range hence no gap.
No gap. but a spike formation. Hystograms turned up into plus area. 8 day crossed 21 day MA yesterday. So whats it mean, buy the dips until 50 crosses 100 then buy buy buy.
I would like to thank those who sold me those shares at .155 over the last few days
But Dane at the time they were reducing the vol. not increaseing it.
Dane That is what I noticed yesterday. Volume would be up then they would take it down. Now I have 258,600
reheddle What I was saying is that we had 246512 shares traded then they removed trades and went to 226,812. Now we had 2,000 trade and 228812 vol..
What happened? Vol was 246512 last .151 now 226812 still .151 large spread on B/A
majicathome no gap as.165 was within the previous days trading range. Doesn't matter where it closed. Gaps are trades outside the previous days trading range.
Yes we are above the 50DMA which is a plus. The RS however must get above 50. The Stochastics are near a bottom, but does not rule out a little more down side and then sideways action for some time to come. A strong open Monday could be what is necessary to turn it back positive. I use an 8-21 chart which often gives early signals. so my histograms are still dropping. It is a fairly long time until first bit hits the H2O so there will be a couple moves up and down JMO
tryoty just looking at reality. I did buy a lot of shares in 3 buys at the area I had previously seen as support. We need to move back up fast. However the close Friday is not what I was looking for.
If we don't rally off this drop the chance for a drop back to .125 is very good. Long chart now has a broken cup handle, Looks like it may not pay to catch falling knives. Good thing I didn't expend all dry powder
What happened to VOl was 398,589 last trade .16 now 382489 last .155 bid .165-.17
Dane I placed a GTC at .155 on the 18th, now added more at .16
Alwright I have seen reports that in the short term oil will out perform PM's So far it isn't happening. However stochastics are over blown on metals and over sold oil, that is on the futures.
Wedget appears to be breaking out on the down side. Histograms still falling. Vol very light so buyers see this action. IMO we will be at .15 area very fast. That area may hold, if not its .125
If you have items to sell do you tell the public the market is soft? Why would the largest off shore driller make a statement at all. Ans. to stabilize or increase business. It was not PR it wasa free advertisement.
21 day MA now at .181 and that was the low of the day. Wedge getting tight, won't be long and she should move one way or the other.
Thiis one could be right around the ides of March
Dane Thanks for help with posting those charts. BTW you must be a geologist as they are the only ones I have even known who think the past is the key to the present. Of course there is some exception that being unless over turned. Now Historians believe those who don't know history are doombed to repeat its past mistakes. At this time in history it appears we are repeating the mistakes of 1920/30's USA /Germany also Japan 1990's. Hope to get to meet you someday when this Big Dog howles and barks tree. Thats from coon hunters.
MTkump I don't know where that chart went.It was at the start a few paragraphs below the picture of the AA now I don't see that page area.
mtkaump take a look at the candelstick chart on this homepage.
Appears to be forming a wedge, however the histograms have been going negative.Mac was bending down, now has a slight apearence of going flat.Vol has backed off a little. There is a naked candledown to .15 That could be about to fill if the wedge breaks down. Candles don.t have to fill but just as gaps they often do. The 21 day MA is now 18. If .18 is taken out then we could see .155 and a very slim chance at .125.
From the postings we now see more possiitive posts then negative posts. Draw your own conclusion from those.
tryoty that makes sense Not sure the $5 will be the number. Numbers will depend upon proven, but you know that. Your formula is right IMO
Red what company would pay a price equal to its own current value to double its value in only one of its holdings?
Ok guys and gals all the hype aside what is the market telling us? It is not sure. black long candle. appears buyers were not willing to jump in. Sellers weren't ready to accept just any bid. Time frame is uncertain but if it is late 09 early 10 there is lots of time for those who did tax loss to get back in. Depending where they sold some may be north of .40's. We should still be in the .17-.22 range. Given the alternative choice of investment I don't see any urgent move to buy nor to sell. Its now the time value of money vs the alternative short term investment op for the traders. Traders are the motivators IMO. If I'm wrong how many longs are commiting $10,000 or more at a time. check the vol buys.
What happened I saw a trade at .192 with total vol at 44598 now it is last trade .195 42398
Midter If I remember isn't Cvx waiting for a hole in block 2 before they will drill again in 1? That is one long wait.
Is anyone beginning to conect the dots with military air craft & oil in the africa and middle east, gang and drug wars in Mexico who is dropping oil production to the economic down turn around the world. What does this begin to smell like?Also trouble between N and S Korea heating up.Oil in short supply. Hum could be about to see major price rise in oil as countries who may expect war need oil all ships planes tanks run on oil. Economic troubles in the past did result in major wars. Transportation of Biofules is not ready for the fuel of military equipment. Does anyone have any idea of the time frame it took to get ready for desert storm? The fuel supply officer was given 30 days to be ready. What would it take today?Where is the supply if needed? . Hamas has already broken the truce and begun importing weapons via the tunnels. Will the USa support Isreal on this next attack? If so where are the oil fuels to suppport the troops? The curren administration is tied down in which pork to place in the stimulus package. 825 only dropped to 819 and it is still loaded with items that don't increase the economy or employmet. OK 12% does, big deal
Farell excelent observation of XOM.They do have the cash to buy existing production for less then they would have spent exploring. That is why they are on top in the oil patch. Good managment with excellent research people.
appears to beginning to trade at the top of the pull back number I posted yesterday.Will we move down to Dane's low end or experience a full retracement to begining of the breakout .125-.13.Could be some last chance buys in the next few days.
Farrell there is a saying in the investment world If it is evident then it is not the answer. Also keep an open mid and investigate both sides.
I only said, the Big players may not be in a hurry to drill as they intend to be players in the EEZ. If there is no recent discovery they have a better bargaining position. The San TOme by making the anouncement in Brazil are firing a shot saying look guys we have a new player. Yet is Brazil actually abil to also go in. They canceled a rig order, are a national company in a country with its own oil to bring to market, and have financial problems. What looks most obvious to you.
Gee and why do you think there has been no rush by the big boys to drill sooner? Won't they be the most likly players in the EEZ too.
BigFish if also reply I do my own TA on paper so not able to show here. Prior to yesterdays run my pull back numbers were probably .155 with a possible .125. Looking at candles now without a close yet today I will likly raise my probable to 17 area, with a extream down to .125
cuye kidsTamtam