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There sure were a lot more press releases when DOC was around, the change is rather striking. The lack of good news, or really much transparency at all for the last 5 months, has not helped.
Obviously... the point was that there is no reason to wait until 1/18. There may be a tax reason to wait until 1/1, but there is nothing magical about 1/18 if they already have the shares to exercise against.
Why would they wait to exercise? Might as well just exercise now.
Relatively heavy volume, for sure.
I don't think any of this is relevant in light of the new rules that may be coming at the FDA, it would almost certainly change the calculus.
Here's a more direct statement from the FDA:
https://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/ucm587127.htm
I agree, this suddenly makes accelerated approval of AXAL in the USA a real possibility. The already completed trials and the trials underway seem to fit this description precisely.
Starting to look like the typical daily peak shortly after 11:00AM EST.
So you think there is nothing in the agreement that would grant Amgen access to the technology if Advaxis doesn't meet certain development and calendar milestones? What company in their right mind would agree to pay up front money, pay all development costs, and pay additional milestone payments without some kind of guarantee that it all happens in a certain time frame? At least anything that is in their control.
We don't know the details of the agreement, AMGN may get the whole thing if certain milestones are not met.
I agree 100%. Lombardo has been on the job as CEO for nearly 5 months, not a really long time but not exactly just a drop in the bucket. There could have been a lot more evidence of a real change in strategy, better fiscal management, etc.. I don't dismiss that this could all be happening behind the scenes, but it's a real leap of faith at this point.
But if they have no cash in 6-9 months it doesn't matter that they have no debt, then it's bankruptcy time. It's unlikely they can issue enough new shares to make a difference based on the stock price, or new debt, if they don't have enough income to service that debt.
I'm becoming less of a believer that it went down so shorts can get out of the way, it went down because many don't trust the story any more, and it seems that something bad happened shortly before Dan's departure. The latest financial report was just the icing on the cake, and here we are with a huge risk of dilution or flat out bankruptcy if they can't raise the needed funds. Not saying it will happen, but I do believe there is some risk of bankruptcy on top of the dilution risk.
I think if it was something like that, it would have to be disclosed. I also don't believe the taking a vote theory, seems much more likely some deal went so bad that it could not be salvaged, Dan was let go, and here we are looking for a new way to stay afloat.
Unfortunately Dan was probably let go because that deal blew up, and now they have to figure out a new one. The takedown was more likely a result of the deal gone bad, and a lot of people wanted out.
Do you assume the agreement covers all the way through phase III trials?
Here's something I wonder about - we have heard very little about the details of milestone payments for NEO. Not sure why they believe this needs to be kept secret, but I would have to think that there should be a substantial payment for dosing the first patient. It could be that there is enough money coming in next year for NEO milestones that add a quarter or two of runway, and maybe that's why there is less concern at the company about the cash situation. It seems the accountants or someone is not letting them count on any milestone payments in terms of predicting the future cash balance.
I can believe that, although seems like that must be a huge hammer hanging over their heads. I'm afraid there is something else not yet understood, but it could just be that (dilution) risk, plus the risk inherent in all of their early stage products, and even the later stage products that are yet to have any approval.
I agree, but why does the market think otherwise (other than the short cabal, which I still have my doubts about)? If everyone and their brother agreed this is extremely undervalued, there should be no way to keep it down.
I don't disagree with your numbers, it's certainly possible. But if you claim $1B in sales is possible, I would claim that it's equally possible the sales could be a lot less than that, and $300M is not outrageous as some suggest. In reality I think the real number could easily be 3X or X/3 any reasonable guess.
Exactly, and that's why I think you will probably get 10% of the afflicted people worldwide, and worldwide it may very well be difficult to get more than $10K average per total treatment per person, which curiously ends up close to fbg's $300M per year.
I assume you meant $100K per person treatment. That sounds like a huge number for a year of treatments, I think it could easily end up only commanding 1/10th of that, which would mean $120M in revenue, and then apply any other factors. You certainly can't assume $100K per person treatment worldwide.
Let's hope so, because another significant delay could be a complete catastrophe for this company.
But clearly not much good news (or good enough) in the last 12 months, which is why it has really gotten taken to the cleaners.
Isn't this complete speculation about DOC? The reality is the company has said nothing, so there could be any number of reasons why DOC was fired. I certainly believe he was fired based on the way it happened, but any guess about the reason(s) is just a guess. It's not obvious to me that there has been any major change in strategy, at least nothing obvious yet. I kind of wonder if some company may have walked away from a possible agreement based on negotiations with DOC, and it was then unrecoverable, so DOC was let go. Otherwise I might have expected him to be let go and then some deal announced relatively quickly, if it was simply a matter of the board wanting to accept the deal. So I would speculate a deal went bad, DOC was let go, and now they are looking for a new deal.
Looking not so good heading into the final hour.
Agreed, just really painful in the meantime.
This dribbling down on a daily basis is really getting old.
Sure did.
This is just extremely painful, up 1 day and down 2 days, or more.
Right, that's what I meant and I agree, no news is effectively bad news to the market. With any luck things will turn around.
I just meant it couldn't get past 3.26-27, not meaning to imply a huge drop. A little bit interesting that a few times it would sit at 3.24-25, then make a quick move to 3.26-27, then get pushed back down to more like 3.23. But then it fell off of that at the end of the day.
Every time it gets near 3.27 today it gets slammed down.
Volume is quite low today.
Isn't that the scary part, that is was so easy for them to crash the PPS? That's what concerns me, that there's something else going on here, but it's certainly possible they are just taking advantage of a less than ideal situation for the last couple of years.
Have to say I'm surprised (pleasantly) to see this recover this afternoon. It's so unusual, maybe it will hold up.
You called it, not looking so good this afternoon, in fact kind of a typical slog down since the morning run up, so far.
I was trying to state/imply that HOT could be used before NEO in this message (https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=135938432).
Not really, recently almost everything has gotten pushed out at least a little bit. They should figure out how to have aggressive internal schedules but convey conservative external ones that are guaranteed to be met. Continually pushing out schedules is not interpreted as a good sign. I'm hoping that's what they did with the 1H2018 time frame for NEO dosing, it might mean there is a chance it will happen in 1Q but more or less guaranteed to happen in 2Q.
I agree with most of this, but unfortunately it's not only about the trials and the science. There is a very real risk of running out of money before we find out the answer.