This should scare the hell out of anyone long

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$VXN,uu[m,a]waclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUp14,3,3!La12...

and Bliss...there will be no bounce tomorrow in my opinion. We have violated an uptrend line that goes back to last October. Typically, if a day's range (from low to high of day) increases from one day to the next, the move continues in that direction the following day.
By the way...has that disagreement we had about an ascending triangle (Bullish-your view) or corrective channel (bear flag-my view)changed your view on market direction yet?

good commentary

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/bernie_observations.aspx?click=home&cat=soc&pag...

Hi Aire

January may be the ultimate low, but my read is that the bulk of the drop will be in one sharp sell-off, then up and down chop near the bottom. Weekly stochs still have a LONG way to go to oversold

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$INDU,uu[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUp14,3,3!La12,26...

Combine that with low volatility ($VXN record low), equity put/call ratios nuetral, seasonal weakness, natural gas spike, gasoline spike, hurricane damage, and a second rejection (lower high) forming a perfect "rounded top" on the Dow and an Elliot wave pattern screaming for a wave 3 down, and it doesn't get much better than this in terms of set-ups for the bears. My first target is 9700 (the low of last October and right around the 200WMA)

and thanks for the welcome back...I was reading the posts anyway, so what the heck... :)

I'd advise against trying to pick a bottom here...this has gap down, and down, and down, written all over it. Be careful trading!

Dow 9700 first target.

waterfall has begun....batten down the hatches!

Natural gas with the same setup.

Check this out on oil...when large specs have this few contracts it signals a substantial rise about to happen.

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?click=home&ID=14281

Oh, I can't help myself...you bulls are killing me. I had a correction target of DOW 10590 (futures), where I added shorts. I expect this move today to be a headfake and a waterfall down. Straight shot to 9700.

Think all the economists have this factored in for the winter?

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NG/A5

happy trading

you have a point...I'll let you all enjoy the Airedale, Mr Cash board. Don't want to upset the apple-cart. Good luck trading. This is my last post.

As a successful trader for over 7 years, I find that when you become overly reliant on one way of interpreting the market, to the exclusion of all else, you become blind to certain common sense conclusions. I incorporate elliot waves, stochs, rate of change, sentiment indicators, etc. I make my decisions based on the assimilation of all these factors when placing a trade. If Hurst cycle analysis were infallible, every single trader would employ those methods.

More than one way to skin a cat, so try to be a little less condescending in providing me with your enlightenment, kinda reminds me of a "born again christian".

Daily stochs are declining from extrememely overbought and the rate of change in the fall is consistent with an impulsive move down. What signals to you that a low is in the offing. I just don't see it.

A GAP UP is the last thing Bulls want to see here. 1220 S&P by Friday expiration...then ugliness.

ok...you win

Beg to differ...we ARE in a downtrend.

Wave 1 of 3 down

and it IS a BEAR FLAG.

At least that's my take.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$INDU,uu[m,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUp14,3,3!La12,26....

Draw the channel lines...first for the Bull flag in q 4 04...then draw the channel lines for the Bear flag (corrective) since April

And I'm not trying to convince you...just letting you know what I see. It's your $$$, play as you wish!

actually it's a bear flag. Upward sloping corrective channel. Breakouts usually occur to the downside, as opposed to the bullflag which was a downsloping corrective channel that broke out to the upside q4, 2004.


btw...Oil up $2 today

although the cavalry usually comes in to prop the market at 2:30pm if it looks weak. Miracle rallies out of nowhere at 2:30pm

There is a nice gap around 10500 that needs to be filled on the Dow...Today perhaps?

Bliss...It doesn't concern me at all when other traders have opposing opinions, that's what makes a market...gotta be a buyer for what yer sellin'. Instead of "Melt up time" over and over again, how 'bout some price targets and projections based on your analysis?

The Bull party is over!

Last post...

The main reason for my extreme bearishness is that there are no new stimuli to provide the life jacket that housing was for Greenspan. No way...in my opinion, the market gets through this area of resistance from "The Bubble" and breaks out. To the contrary, you should be looking for exits...and quick!

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/DW/M

Boy...that's an ugly rejection on the candlesticks

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SPX,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUp14,3,3!La12,26,....


Same candle pattern as top in 1st week of August. Big difference is that this is a failure to make a new high. A rejection like this could start the fireworks.

We'll see...long $62.90 as of today at support with daily,hourly stochs all bottomed and decline easing forming the first basing pattern I've been willing to commit $$$ to this correction.

Stops in $62.70

By the way, I expect the trip to 9700 Dow to be wave 1 of wave 3 down. Bounce from there, then the waterfall.

I'm looking primarily at the chart...however, Chinese consumption is NOT abating, and Russian production has slowed dramatically. Gulf production should be down significantly as numerous platforms that were expected to be operational this year will not be online until 2006 due to damage from Hurricane Dennis/Katrina...

No Bull market just falls off a cliff without testing the high at least once.

Isn't every decision you make in trading SPECULATION?

Head & Shoulders in Dow weekly as clear as can be...failure to make new highs...added to short today...target 9700 before a bounce

Long oil at $62.90...looking for at minimum a test of the high.

You don't have to look any further than oil prices to see what is in store for equities. Price up this mornin'...equities tank....prices drop $2...equities spike.

Unfortunately for the equities markets, the correction in oil should be over. Target $76

Just kidding..looks like it's time to learn some hurst cycles to complement elliot waves...nice call buying the dip yesterday mrusa...

Still short my long term DJ position...and staying there until December

Oil $28/barrel by close

Dow 15550 by the close

This commentary illustrates my point about premium sellers

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/bernie_observations.aspx?click=home&cat=soc&pag...

BB...that award for brilliance and bravery wouldn't have a monetary component, would it?

Didn't think so...I'll take it anyway! :)

The market is trading TICK for TICK with oil prices. I believe the correction in oil has finished as of this morning and we go back to test the highs again. I expect this to be the cause of the precipitous decline I see in the coming weeks.

"The market simply does not appear prone to such volatility at this time"

Precisely why we are due for a shake up in volatility....the herd is selling option premium as if there is no risk that could hurt them. When you see premium sellers jumping in to sell every little spike in volatility, there will be a time (soon) when that trade goes bad.

If you look at the Dow in 1998-2002, we had violent swings of 2000 points 6 times.

We're due!

full stochs at 95 on the S&P daily...failed to make new highs on this move...

I believe the top is in.

Wave 3 of 3 on DJ weekly about to begin...Maximum high projection was 10660 for this wave 2...

Target 9000 within 4-8 weeks.

It won't be long until the markets realize that for the Katrina disaster to be the "net positive to the economy" that everyone is blabbing about, they are ignoring energy costs related to the reconstruction effort. It will require enormous amounts of energy for the labor intensive, gas/diesel drinking job of reconstruction. How do prices come down in that environment?

Can't help myself...short 10590!

I'm watchin it close...it should have exploded upwards on that last surge, but it just petered out...we'll see

stopped out

I had 10570 as my top (as I posted Friday)...If it continues higher, this is impulsive and should run to 10660. So far 10570 was high in DJ futures, I expect wave 1 of 3 down to start immediately.

DJ futures...good luck all!