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Maybe we will hit .25 when we get into the unicorn industry.
I know it's controversial but if the government would just remove the red tape we could corner the market!
And institutional buys which have picked up... Went from 0% of shares in 2014 to 20% owned by institutions in 2015...
Exactly... Hoping for a PR today!
Finally got a chance to read it all and it truly is a restatement of their January 26th press release. 571% growth in wells from EOY 14 to EOY 15. 4th depot is open as anticipated.
Revenues up from 14 as a result of well count growth, but not as significant as we would like because a lot of work was done at cost or for free to obtain the customers(thus the increases in sales and marketing costs).
Interesting note to me is that we have 3 large institutional investors (2 with 5% position and 1 with a 10% position). That is a good sign of large institutions are putting their money in this.
This is a typical "limited information" filing from these guys. They have never given information until things were firm.
Still growing, still investing in the future, but infrastructure is in place for profitability now. 4 depots puts them in position to service 4000 wells, and we only need to be at 600 for profitability based on costs of roughly 3m a year right now. We know we are higher than 235 as of now and if they could pull off anything close to the 571% growth in 2016 that we saw in 2015 we will all be sitting on boatloads of cash.
The depots are being built because they have customers wanting the service. These are smart guys. Deals are coming in or are already done.
I just wish they would give us a glimpse of the current and projected well counts.
Hoping for a press release before end of week!
No, it's a restatement of the same information we got in January. 235 as of 12/31/15. Hoping for a press release updating us with a more current number or we may have to wait until the Q1 report...
A press release would be nice is know well count and any future sales forecasts...
4th depot is open, so that's a good sign!
No doubt... It is a matter of time at this point... If not this report, then q1 or q2...
Profitability has to be coming soon...
Patience is key, but if they hit the 8 depots Lavance talked about last year at enercom by the fall of this year then this thing will be well on its way to 5 bucks.
We just have to wait, but this stock is a rare opportunity. Valuation is only difficult because profit isn't occurring, but as soon as it does this stock is easily worth 50+ cents. Continued growth could have us between 5 and 10 bucks within 2 years...
I don't think there is a possibility of a not good report. The risk is a report that gives us no updated information and then we have to wait for the Q1 report...
I guess a bad report would be something like a depot closing or the loss of a customer which I just don't see happening...
I wonder the same thing... Also wondering if they have already filed and the SEC hasn't published yet?
Nah... My first shares were actually at .022 also. It won't matter soon enough!
How's L2 now?
Ask, not bid...
.0234 bid ain't budging...
Time is running out to get in before the news! It ain't getting any cheaper...
.022 bid... Moving on up!
64k til .08 guys!!!!
Not many people know details about penny stocks. They trade on charts and only look for short term profits. That's why this thing is moving slowly. News will change that. The ask is .024 now... Still a good buy for someone, but they just cannot get the volume to get a good position. Shareholders are not willing to sell large lots for cheap. So investors are forced to get small lots a little at a time!
Take what you can get at this point...
I'm excited... Not sure why someone sold so low right at end of day... Oh well... High asks should hold through tomorrow... Maybe we will pull through .03 tomorrow!
Yup, L2 remains very thin, which will allow for a significant bounce on good news!
So they have 2 days then?
Anyone know when this report is coming out? Are we going to have to wait until Friday?
So market is closed on Good Friday...
Anyone know if this effects SEC filings as well? Will we have to wait until Monday for the report?
Also, do these reports typically come out at a certain time of the day?
Feeling the same way... I just do not see a way this thing does not explode in the long run. Their product/regiment is patent protected so we have our own niche carved out for ourselves that is a win/win for all involved!
But 2 cents is nice to see... Moving on up...
In would not count on it that quickly either, but I am counting on good news in the very near future!
We just need to see confirmation that sales are looking good and that profitability is imminent or already occurring.
A nice report would do the trick! The sky is the limit if the report gives us any additional insight into growing revenues...
To me it is not a matter of if, but when... It was be nice if it is this report, but either way, we are close!
Wow so less than 100k shares available below 5.8 cents... Extremely thin...
Looks like opportunities have already been missed..
Time to hang on tight and pray for good news for those that are already in!
Gary, what does L2 look like?
People are running out of time to get in ahead of the report.
Would not be surprised to see this thing move up a bit towards the eod of the day as the report nears...
Trying to save a few tenths of penny now may cause you to miss out...
All depends on the trader's mentality... Many people watch charts and try to time small gains based on technicals. They don't trade for long term positions in penny stocks.
In the short term the charts are risky for these investors because they want to get their short term 20-50% and move on to do it again with another stock.
I am not that kind of trader... I solely do mutual funds with the exception of this stock because of my confidence in Lavance and the product.
Just look at how the L2 side has looked for some time now... Even trades that took price lower were small trades. No investors that are currently in with large positions want to give up their shares cheap. The asks have sat at just a few hundred thousand shares that would take it to 6 cents.
Yesterday somebody sold 500k at .0176... They will likely regret that... But kudos to the guy that got them...
Most people sitting in this stock are displaying the optimism and confidence that something good is coming soon! It would be the wrong time to jump out... Good luck if you want in at a low cost with a decent number of shares....
It would not surprise me if it takes another quarter, but I would not be willing to miss the opportunity if I was sitting on the sidelines right now.
The volume is sporadic with this stock. I took advantage of some of the volatile days 2 weeks or so ago to accumulate close to 900k shares.
If the news comes in soft, I will definitely add to my position prior to the Q1 report!
That is the way I see it...
I keep targeting the 600 well mark, but this is very conservative.
Expenses are roughly 3m... Even at only 300 wells revenue could be 3.6 million annualized, assuming they are all fully paid wells (out of testing - and requiring about 500 gallons of excelyte at $2 per gallon a month).
Some of the stripper wells they have been servicing don't require as much product making them a less profitable venture, hence why I am being conservative with the 600 wells.
But if they were to issue a report that said we have crossed the threshold of profitability and are around 400 wells+, we would be around 45 to 50 cents based on PE OF 30.
If they add to that some great news of future customer commitments we could see something far greater...
I seen something that forecasted them to be around 400 a while back by this time, but the last actual press release the company issued had them at 235 as of 12/31/15...
If anyone else has any better information I would love to hear it!
They grew from 35 to 235 overall in 2015. But a large part of the slow growth was caused by testing and proving the product's effectiveness.
Results came back better than expected. Cost savings in the neighborhood of 5k-7k for the customer versus existing practices per well, per month. So a company like EP energy could save 80m per year if they gave us all 1100 wells they operate. They would be fools not to.
The benefits of our product are to name a few:
Lower cost
Higher production times for customer
Less well maintenance due to less corrosion in well
No need to recycle or pay for dumping hazardous water
Safer for employee health
It's a win/win!
600 overall, not per depot...
Margins are north of 80%, so the profitability is achieved at a very low well count...
A big piece of what is so exciting about this company. Most companies shave huge initial investments and it takes a long time to breakeven... This company has minimal expenses compared to most.
One of the reasons it has taken so long to reach profitability is that the old CEO had a strategy of leasing the machines and having the customer pay royalties for gallons produced.
Less than 3 years ago Lavance bought back all of the machines, focused only on oil and gas and began building depots to move to this model. The stock was north of 60 cents back then in anticipation of the old model achieving profitability.
As zzz eluded to, investors got sick of waiting when the company changed strategies. But this newer strategy has better margins and a better focus in oil and gas where the greatest growth potential exists as a result of fracking...
Probably someone that was sitting on a short term 30% based on recent buys... Cannot blame them, but I'd hate to miss out on what's to come ....
I think zzz hit on the reason for this yesterday... Investors expected this to move more quickly.
With that said, this is a legitimate company with a legitimate strategy, which is rare at prices levels that we are seeing.
The low prices presented a buying opportunity, and Casey Capital even filed as our first large institutional investor.
It's hard to say whether it was oversold or not because that is hard to measure when a company is not profitable.
I am basing my valuations on getting to a point of profitability which is a risk everyone here has to calculate for themselves .
Lavance makes me very comfortable that this company is in great hands. His track record in phenomenal. The product is superior to anything else out there with a lower cost and is greener.
More depots are opening and short term liquidity is fine. Revenues are coming in. We are past the toughest part in my opinion...
Been watching this company for a few years and the excitement is centered around that profitability is right around the corner and/or already occurring.
Expansion is occurring in terms of infrastructure. 4 depots opened means we can produce enough excelyte for up to 4K wells. EPA approvals for the product are done. Testing is showing significant cost savings for oil and natural gas producers. EP Energy has already committed wells to us and this was the reason for the uptick in revenue. We were at 235 wells by year end, but Infrastructure can handle way more.
Just with the 235 wells, majority of which were only revenue generating towards the end of the year the company turned a revenue in the neighborhood of 460k. Operating costs are about 3m per year, so costs are fairly easy to cover once we get to 600 wells. This is assuming 2 dollar per gallon cost with the average well needing about 12000 gallons per year to be treated. This would translate to an annual revenue of greater than 7m at just 600 wells. Revenue was so low in 2015 because it was done for free for a large part of the year to gain the testing results and customer base.
I am leaving a buffer in between the current 3m operating costs and the potential 7m revenue at 600 wells for further increase of operating costs as they expand. Further testing, employee growth, depot build outs, etc...
EP Energy alone has 1100 wells, so if we just got all of their wells, which seems likely given their satisfaction of the product we could be in the neighborhood of $1.50 per share.
The whole caveat is getting a financial statement that actually shows profitability so that the PE ratio is a positive figure to actually get a fair market valuation.
Hope this helps!
Shaping up nicely!
Thanks Gary!
500k bid at .0175... Big bids keep climbing...
How thin is L2 on the ask side?
About 600 wells is our best guess. Using the operating costs of roughly 3m and the 2 dollar per gallon of excelyte pricing the company presented at Enercom.
Last year they grew from only 40 wells being maintenanced to 235. Majority of the year was testing and not revenue generating. Revenue generation really took off in Q4.
More importantly they built 3 depots and a 4th this February that can each produce enough excelyte to service 1000 wells. So capacity is in place for 4000 wells and the CEO is on record saying he would like to have 8 depots opened by the fall of this year.
So the infrastructure is already in place for this thing to take off quickly. I feel this is imminent.
We could see something good in this annual, or we may have to wait for the quarterly. All depends what the company wants us to know right now. They do not usually pump exciting information like many other penny stocks. They stick to facts which means by time the good news comes out the best buying opportunity will have been missed...
I agree with everything you are saying. Where my price per share optimism comes in is that they have been so good at keeping costs down that the breakeven point is so low. Really at about 600 wells they become a profitable company....
So, I feel like we are just beginning... But even the starting point of profitability will give us huge gains from where we are.
I still feel comfortable with $1.50 by year end. I could honestly see this thing going way higher than that, but it will take time...