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Oscaro:
I think that you did an absolutely outstanding job of illustrating the complexity of the PrintRite software and equally importantly the lives that are dependent upon it operating flawlessly time after time. I know that we have some folks on the board who have done software development and I'd like to ask how many of you have ever developed a piece of software that operated flawlessly (even after extensive testing and debugging) in the end-users environment the first time and on into the future. I know that I have not and I have developed a good deal of software over the years. The complexity of what SGLB is developing is absolutely mind-boggling. It's not acceptable that the PrintRite software operate correctly 99.999% of the time. That simply won't cut it and SGLB will be vigorously attempting to get it to fail. Once they are satisfied that it is completely bug free and they turn an "operational version" over to GE or any other major customer the software is going to be put through another round of extensive testing before GE starts manufacturing nozzels with it. There is simply too much liability risk riding on this software for GE to take any other path. Because the software has so many modules performing dependent functions an error in one module affects the entire package and causes a ripple effect of corrections to be made making testing and debugging all the more difficult.
It's because of the recognition of how complex this undertaking is, the need for it to be perfect without a shadow of a doubt, before it is put into an operational environment, and the lives that are dependent upon it working flawlessly that I believe we are many months away from significant contrcat awards.
Silver:
Certainly another way of looking at the future and the more we do this hopefully the better we will get.. We are all guessing to a great extent at this point (just like our outlook on when sales will actually materialize). In my humble opinion the margins you are expecting are extremely high. My best estimate would be something less than half what you are projecting. You are also assuming a full roleout and acceptance of Printrite by multiple customers. I also would be surprised at this event as well. I do believe it is worth going through the exercise of projecting as things become more and more certain (or at least the clouds part more than they have to date). Nice work.
Duck:
Have to disagree with you on this one. $72,000 is way under market for someone with Mark's skill set and responsibilities. I think he has accepted the below market salary because he believes in the project, he knows they are cash strapped, and he believes he will reap his reward in a couple more years in stock and bonuses. In my opinion they are lucky to keep him at this salary and I'm hoping that he earns and receives many more bonuses in the future.
"In the same breath, we are holding well above the levels that many also predicted." We are all hanging around waiting for the fat lady to sing in terms of major contract announcements and revenue projections. I certainly would not put a great deal of faith that this is the bottom in terms of share price. It very much depends upon how far off that announcement turns out to be.
If there was ever a short……...
I told you my arithmetic was notoriously poor. Just correcting my previous post if SGLB booked a profit of 1/2 cent per share and the stock price were to increase to 2.20 per share (20 X current prices) the PE would be 440/1. (At least I( think so)
Silver:
I'm having a hard time getting my head around your prediction that SGLB could be at a few dollars in a hurry. Let's assume that PrintRite is everything that we all hope it to be and that contracts and profitability start being announced.
My arithmetic is notoriously bad and I'm certain someone will correct my numbers if they are way off base but let's say that SGLB announces a six million dollar contract with GE or Honeywell. That would certainly be a big deal and would make the stock jump. Putting that in perspective however a contract is not profit and we (at least I) do not have any idea what Printrite will sell for or how much of the revenue will actually flow to SGLB and how much will flow to their partners. Once again, just for fun let's assume that 50% (which would be incredibly high) of the sale flows to the bottom line as profit for SGLB. That would create a profit of 1/2 cent per share, and a PE ratio of 240/1 if the stock were to jump to 20 times it's current price or $2.20 per share. I think we would all be in agreement that this is not going to happen. I'm curious what target profit or solid contract announcements would increase the share price by twenty fold over current prices. What time frame would your best guess be that this might occur. My thinking is that this is not months but years away. I'm often dead wrong. What's your thinking?
Once again this is not MARKETING it's business development. It has nothing to do with promotion, advertising, sales support, etc. It has to do with identifying new markets for your product and developing on-going relationships with potential customers. For those of you who think that this sort of activity can wait until the last moment, I respectfully suggest that you have no appreciation for how long this process takes or the potential rewards that it will generate.
Johnie:
I think your comments are spot on. The Business Development Manager (big difference from marketing) should have been on board a year ago and not just being recruited. This position is going to be key to growing the business and why they waited so long to bring someone on is a mystery to me.
I think that those expecting good news in the upcoming quarterly report are going to be disappointed once again. Remember if a significant event occurs during the quarter the company is required to announce it at that time. They may book some of the revenue they have previously announced as expecting this fiscal year, but other than that I don't expect much in the way of positive news. I don't think it is reasonable to expect any sort of significant revenue stream until sometime next fiscal year and that depends upon wrapping up their onging development efforts and having shippable product ready to distribute. I don't see any of this as really negative, just a more drawn out time frame for significant results that will positively affect the stock price than many here are hoping for. The stock will be dead money for the near term and some will be content with that, others will move on. High Tech startups have so many moving parts that getting them all lined up and making money always takes longer than would like.
Actually, it's not that I expect SGLB to have revenues yet (in my opinion, that is sometime off) and I know they don't have the infrastructure to ramp up quickly. What I object to is the constant barrage of suppositions, assumptions and leaps of faith about the future that are posted here daily. It's one thing to believe in the future of a company and quite another to put together strings of suppositions (largely in an information vacuum) that are accepted and enlarged upon by other posters until they take on some semblence of credibility. Startups progress in fits and starts and almost always take longer than anyone expected (if ever) to become profitable. It's fine to dream. Just keep in mind that this is what you are doing.
How refreshing to read Duck's and Herringaids posts. No hype, no wishful thinking, no unsupported projections. no leaps of faith, just some tough questions. Renews my faith that common sense has not disappeared completely.
Well……so much for the EOS Model 290, and all the chatter about new revenue sources. A week ago SGLB was at .11 prior to the announcement and the share price closed at .11 today. Some seem assured that it will hold .11. I would not count on it. The overall trend for the past six weeks (with the seemingly temporary impact of the 290 announcement to bolster the share price) has been decidedly downward. My belief continues to be that without major contractual/revenue announcements that trend will continue. I don't have any better idea than anyone else where it will bottom. But my bet is that it is not at .11.
It's almost certainly leased. Very rare to purchase outright. There is no hardware modification.
Driftin:
I can't argue with your timelines, my estimates would be similar. I do have some problem with your statement (and that of others) that the stock price is being "manipulated". To me the price is simply a reflection of the uncertainties about when meaningful revenues and/or contractual agreements will be announced. Some folks (many on his Board) are willing to wait. Others may not be so patient. With the overall market continuing to advance and SGLB continuing to show price weakness I believe you are going to see others abandoning the stock for more immediate opportunities. Hard to argue whether they are right or wrong. I guess time will tell. If we go through July with no significant contractual announcements I believe we may very well be back in the .08's. Let's check back then and see where we are.
From the announcement : "The timeline for the machine deployment aligns well with our planned launch of PrintRite3D® INSPECT™ and PrintRite3D® DEFORM™ over the next 6 to 9 months, respectively." I guess you can parse this any way you choose. To me it says the printer will be ready to do meaningful work in six to nine months. You can put any spin you choose to on what deployment means. To me it means that is the point at which the printer becomes productive.
My problem is not with what the company is doing it is with the unrealistic expectations of shareholders for results that often take years to come to fruition in a high-tech startup. I have been part of a team on software and hardware startups that succeeded and those that did not as well. It is not a smooth path and it is often not predictable. I don't know whether this recent purchase was a good idea or not. I'm not competent to make that judgement. I do know that there are a slew of factors ( some within SGLB's control, many outside) that must come together to be successful. These are smart guys and I wish them well but it isn't going to happen in the time frame that many here are counting on.
Just for fun let's take Monkeybuilt's estimate for the cost of a Model 290 3D printer of approximately $850,000. I've searched the web and am unable to find any sort of cost data, perhaps someone else can. The printer has been purchased according to the announcement, but not yet installed. My understanding is that the installation of the printer and SGLB's Printrite3d INSPECT and DEFORM will take place over the next six to nine months. That means that the earliest that SGLB would be able to begin doing any custom contract manufacturing is December of this year (and perhaps March of next year). Long before then I would hope that orders would materialize from GE/ Honeywell, etc. (if they don't SGLB will be in real trouble). If we assume that the $850,000 cost of the printer is in the ballpark and we add costs for customizing SGLB's software over the 6-9 month period to operate on the printer we have a very sizeable investment in a single printer that is only capable of producing a single customized 3D printing job at a time. While I fully appreciate the value of having an inhouse capability to demonstrate the power and benefits of SGLB's software to potential clients I believe the board is placing way too much importance on the impact this investment will have on future revenue. I'm going to predict that after the real significance of this investment sinks in that the stock price is going to resume it's slide until significant revenue announcements are forthcoming.
Just to keep things interesting here my plan is to start accumulating SGLB when it drops another 20% +/- by the end of July assuming no major revenue news. If revenue news occurs prior to then I wish you all the very best of luck and may all your dreams come true.
Silversmith:
I think that you have presented a very balanced and fair account of where the SGLB stock price stands at the moment. The "elephant in the room" however that you did not mention is the performance of the stock price over the past 30 days or so. The trend is clearly down and it seems apparent that the only thing that will reverse the slide is a major revenue generating announcement. I think we all believe this to be close at hand, but we simply don't know. If it were to occur in the next few weeks the stock price would rapidly recover and almost certainly reach new highs. However if revenue remains uncertain well into Q-3 I believe the stock price is going to continue to suffer and will almost certainly sink into single digits (when/if it levels out while we wait for revenue news is anybodys guess but it seems clear that in the short term the price trend is clear). The risk/reward is becoming more balanced in my opinion and unlike yourself I would have to say that I am neutral on the next couple months price performance. This is a decided improvement on my previous outlook which was for further price deterioration. I have yet to take a position but I'm paying close attentiion to what the next few weeks might bring in terms of the price performance.
Good find George!! I hope that SGLB will elaborate soon on exactly what this sentence means. "(SGLB) , today announced that it has entered into a contract with Adurant Technologies, LLC, a Cloudera® and Oracle® Gold Partner, to assist Sigma Labs(SGLB) in formulating, designing and deploying a unified 'Big Data' methodology to support the integration of Sigma Labs'(SGLB) PrintRite3D® systems with both existing and legacy manufacturing and production infrastructure systems." It seems clear that SGLB has contracted with Adurant to provide technical assistance to widen the application window for PrintRite3D. I'd like to know exactly what "Big Data" means. I don't have a clue at the moment. I'm also unclear as to the meaning of "existing and legacy manufacturing and production infrastructure systems". It would be really nice to get a plain English translation of the announcement. It does seem clear that SGLB believes this widens their market for PrintRite3D and that is certainly a positive. On the other hand this is a further drain on SGLB's limited resources short-term and makes a revenue generating contract announcement all the more important.
"You assume, I assume, We assume. Everyone assumes." Exactly. Until some clarity emerges there is going to continue to be presure on the stock price. Unfortunately, SGLB is dependent upon decisions/actions to be taken and announced by GE, Materialise, etc. making SGLB vulnerable until a clear path to an ongoing revenue stream is announced. We can all speculate on who, when, how, this is all going to unfold amd that makes the board interesting, but unfortunately it has little effect on the stock price.
I believe that there is almost no chance at all that SGLB will be acquired. Their most significant asset is their relationship with Los Alamos Labs. There is simply no way that the Lab would provide Honeywell, GE, or Materialise with the access to their applied research that they are currently providing to SGLB. It is one thing to provide a small R & D facility of former colleagues with access to government research that might be commercialized, and quite another to provide a competitive advantage to a large corporation at government expense. It simply is not going to happen.
True enough. However, you could also look at these numbers from the viewpoint that 99.8% of the SGLB investors don't have sufficient confidence in the stock to step in and purchase additional shares at these depressed prices. The fact that the price continues to erode on low volume tells me that overall confidence/interest is weak. That will almost certainly change in a heartbeat on positive news, but for now I believe you are going to see further price erosion.
My assumption was that earnings would be negative as well. That is why I was puzzled about the seeming anticipation of the report. At this point I'm very sorry I asked the question.
I gather then that I am not one of "the chosen ones" who agrees 100% with your rosy outlook for SGLB and therefore not worthy of sharing your outlook on earnings. This is supposed to be an open discussion board where all opinions are welcomed and views contrary to your own are tolerated (if not accepted) with civility.
I take it you have no idea then. Is that correct?
I asked a simple question and received a smart ass answer. The question could not have been more sincere Dad!!
Earnings
There is a lot of anticipation looking forward to the quarterly report. I've seen a couple of comments to the effect that if one has done their DD they would know that SGLB is going to report excellent earnings. Perhaps I am the only one in the dark but what exactly are the expectations for earnings for Q-1? Are they expected to exceed expenses? What are some estimates for earnings per share? Thanks.
"Other than this do you think there is anyother fundamental reason with the company or stock that you feel will make it lose another 20% in coming weeks?
Also what do you feel is a fair price for the stock right now and why?"
I believe it is fair to assume that the vast majority of SGLB shareholders don't follow the price movements, news releases, etc. with the attention that most readers of this board do. SGLB is simply one of several investments they hold and not the center of their attention. I also believe that most of these investors would see SGLB as speculative with potentially high rewards but also carrying considerable risk. SGLB would likely be one of several small speculative positions in their portfolio. If these investors sense a prolonged stagnation in the share price they are likely to sell and move on to something that they believe holds more immediate promise. More significantly, if we do have the misfortune to have a sharp market correction over the summer or fall months speculative issues will be the first to be jettisoned from many portfolios. Until SGLB is able to generate significant revenue and/or announce major contractual awards that will lead to revenue I believe the above factors will weigh on the share price.
I'm in a bit of a different position than most on this board. I've already made a significant profit on my earlier SGLB holdings and do not feel compelled to buy unless I sense a real bargain. There is a very real chance that no bargain will present itself, in which case I'll simply move on. Today I would be a buyer in the .08-.10 range. That target will change over time depending upon how I view the potential, but for now that's how I see it.
Porsche:
I keep repeating myself, but you don't seem to believe me. I am not short now, nor have I ever been.
I'm glad to hear that you didn't miss the run to .275. Did you sell at the peak? If so, you are certainly to be congratulated. For weeks members of this board have been clammoring for news about SGLB. With the recent Honeywell announcement there have now been four significant news events in the past two weeks. The fact that none of this has moved the stock at all tells me that the PPS is weak. You believe what you choose to and I'll believe what I choose to. I believe that the stock has not yet reached fair value for me to invest. When it does I'll buy and buy in quantity. After I've done so, you will be the first to know.
Agree that the PPS is range bound and that the trend is down. I don't see any collapse in the price but I do see continued weakness and the real possibility of losing another 15-20%. No one here wants to believe this is a possibility. I guess we will all soon find out.
Perception Is Important
Most here have come to the conclusion that SGLB's long term success is all but assured. Therefore the only key variables remaining are the timeframe in which success will be achieved and the degree of success to be achieved as measured by the resulting share price. Under this scenario it makes all the sense in the world to accumulate shares on any dips and to hold fast for the projected longer term rewards. Because of these convictions SGLB has come to represent a significant share of many's overall stock portfolio. Therefore there is a close tracking of news, events, and share price movements even on an hourly basis.
There is another class of SGLB shareholder out there who has a somewhat different perspective. These shareholders hold as many shares individually as many on this board but their holdings represent a miniscule portion of their overall portfolio. This class of shareholder has the majority of their portfolios invested in growth and income stocks and and are far more interested in whether Apple will pay a special dividend or how Coca Cola is faring in the soft drink wars than they are in the daily movements of SGLB. Their shares of SGLB, along with perhaps a half dozen other small cap speculative issues may represent less than 1% of their overall stock holdings. Few, if any, of this class of investor has any interest in the Investor Village discussion board. They don't follow Seeking Alpha reports and they may not even read the press releases the company offers. They view stocks like SGLB as lottery tickets that if they pay off will allow them to travel first class to Paris the next time they visit rather than business class. They bought SGLB because of the quality of the management, the companies relationship with the Lab, and the potential of their technology, just as followers of this forum did but they don't have the commitment to stay the course because percentage wise this is such a small investment for them. In my opinion, this class of shareholders represents are far more significant ownership in the stock than the close followers of this forum. Because they are not as knowledgeable of the stocks potential as many here they have little or no loyalty. If they sense a stagnation in share price over a prolonged period they are going to sell SGLB and move on to what they consider to be a more promising speculation. If we are unfortunate enough to have a sharp correction in the overall market stocks like SGLB are going to be the very first to be purged from their portfolios. I believe that this very large body of shareholders is what accounts for the pronounced indifference to the flurry of recent positive announcements.
Gary:
You aren't even fun to debate the merits of SGLB any longer. You obviously have your script for the short and medium term future in place, as do I. Let's just give it a rest and see how it plays out. I have absolutely nothing to lose. You on the other hand…….
Gary:
Suffice it to say you and I see things differently and the only thing that will count is what happens between now and when SGLB has sufficient revenue and future prospects to attract a broader range of investors and the price responds accordingly. I have repeated many times that I believe in SGLB's longer term potential and it's ability to eventually reward shareholders handsomely.
Let’s talk about your “facts” for a moment. When a stock loses almost 7% of it’s value in a single day in my book investors lose money. You may have bought shares at .03 but you also bought shares at .16 and commented about how positive you were in your decision to purchase at that level. You may say that you have not lost any money because you have not sold yet. Well, the jury is still out on that wouldn’t you agree, but as of yesterday were you to redeem your investment it would have been worth less than the day before.
SGLB trades today at just over 50% of it’s high less than six months ago. That’s a fact. You seem to believe that SGLB will buck the decline in all other 3D stocks and that the share price will climb out of it’s existing channel before significant sustainable revenues are announced. I think you are flat wrong, but we will just have to wait and see.
As to being too late to get in when there is a real business case for SGLB’s long term success I guess it all depends on how you view the potential here. If you see SGLB as a $5.00 stock five years down the road how much does it matter whether you entered at forty cents or four cents?
As I pointed out earlier in the week when you have three extremely significant news events for a stock in a week when prices were generally up and the stock does not respond positively, but slides back it should give investors pause. As I stated before it tells me that news and projections of future success are simply not going to cut the mustard any longer.
I’ve made my 6X profit on SGLB, taken those funds and increased them through a heavy focus on Canadian oil and gas stocks. If I’m wrong about my beliefs about how SGLB’s share price is going to behave in the short to mid term I really can’t complain and I wish those who invested otherwise every success.
You and I see the next six months quite differently. We’ll just have to see how it plays out.
Silversmith:
I take no pleasure at all in seeing investors lose their hard earned money. I have been there many times myself and know exactly how it feels. As we have discussed several times here I have exactly the same faith in the ultimate success of SGLB as everyone else on the Board. Where we differ is how the stock is going to react between now and then. I believe we are likely in for an overall down market this summer. I believe the bloom is off the rose for 3D stocks in general. I also believe that significant revenue, or the near term promise of significant revenue is the only thing that is going to drive this stock out of it's current channel. I also believe that if real sustainable revenue is more than a few months in the future (which I believe it to be) that you are going to see an on-going down trend in the stock price. I fully understand that this is not a popular opinion here, but it is my honest opinion and it is how I am structuring my investment funds.
Gotta chuckle. And by the way, I am not short, I simply have not entered again. Let's recap:
April 22: Materialise announcemt
April 28 Gary's Seeking Alpha article
May 1 Virtual Conference
Each one of these events by anyone's standards is a major event (in fact, probably the biggest and most significant news week that SGLB has had since it's inception). All here expected the stock price to respond accordingly and move up with the positive press (myself included, to a more modest degree). On April 22 the stock opened at .15 and closed today at .16. To me, the message is very clear. Projections, announcements, promotion, agreements, etc. don't count to any great degree anymore. We are down to the nitty gritty of "show me the money". We'll see how it plays out over the next several weeks, but that is my take.
Got to disagree. If you go back and look at the posts last summer/fall on this very board we had many who were predicting a dollar a share by the end of 2013 some even $5.00 a share. I attended the Board meeting and knew very well what the hoped for timelines would be. I continue to see posts that project enormous gains in the stock price based upon agreements that will take many months to show results to the bottom line. My belief is that we are in the "show me the money" phase with all 3D companies and that it's no longer sufficient to simply talk about how great the future is going to be. If you consider that a negative attitude that's perfectly OK with me. We each have a different outlook on the future and have to play our cards accordingly.
Not at all like June 2013. Anything 3D related went up. SGLB was new on the scene and no one had any idea how long it would take to bring a product to market. Many bought on the expectation that revenue would come much earlier than has proved the case. Now the shine is off of 3D stocks and still no hint of when sizeable revenues will occur. SGLB will remain in this channel until Mr. Market sees solid evidence of a sustainable revenue stream.
"With SGLB there's a story but it's only sexy to those that have done their DD and I doubt it's more than 200 folks".
Actually, I believe that the base of interest is much larger with investors who are fully aware of the potential. My own take is that when the stock first came to wide spread attention last summer there was little sense of exactly where the company stood in terms of development, distribution, future contracts etc. What the market saw was an incredibly smart group of scientists with stellar connections and an apparent breakthrough product. Many of us jumped aboard at that time without a full appreciation of how long it might take to realize solid contracts and revenue. For many of the reasons you point out in your post a great many of those early investors have stepped aside and while still interested are waiting for more solid evidence that SGLB is going to develop into a profitable going concern. The seminar engagements, MOU's, etc. don't sway these investors but when signed contracts, significant revenue streams are finally announced I believe you will see them return in large numbers. I'm personally aquainted with several investors who fit this profile and have significant funds to invest once they are convinced that success is assured. For those that say it will be too late at that point, I say nonsense. If the potentail is real, buying in at three times or six times the current price levels is a non-event.
"That's not historically accurate"…..That was then and this now.