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No posts. Hmmmmm. Smells like a bunch of quiet sellers.
LIWA--Really underperforming. Any thoughts as to why? It almost feels like there's a perpetual seller pressuring the price. R59--Do you still have a position?
CCCL--It seems the capacity utilization is gradually trending higher so don't see another charge there. I guess there could be a partial reversal, but I don't think such a non cash accounting charge will effect the stock price much. I'm more concerned about receivables which have been growing faster than revenues (and I think also aging). In the particularly low margin environment in which they're currently operating, a large bad receivables charge could wipe out profit for an entire quarter or more--and it's real cash they're losing. I'm concerned the dividend cut (which was preceded by heavy selling so somebody knew)is a precursor to a big receivables charge (there has been heavy selling again lately--does somebody know something?). On the other hand, they could be conserving cash for a major acquisition an announcement of which would boost the share price.
CCCL--Cancelled earnings call. New lows. Hopefully the fumbling around isn't a sign of something worse.
CCCL--Bottomed out?
HIHO--Do those of you who trade on technicals think this is entry point? Seems beaten down.
WH--Finally my position at $2.42 average cost is green. These buyouts are so tortured, but it seems like they intend to get this done. It's good to see that some others think so based upon today's action.
CCCL--Another falling knife. Big loser for me.
UVE--Bought August $10 puts back and closed position at .40 which I sold Feb 3rd for 1.30--not a big trade but a good one.
CCCL--Ugh. Reminds me of the expression: "Just because you're not paranoid doesn't mean something isn't out to get you."
CCCL--Seems like dumping from a big seller as price under pressure when others are hot. Hope dumper doesn't know something. Biggest risk I see is possible bad receivables.
CCCL--Wow, re Prescott filing. I wonder what their average price is--whether they drove the last spike or have been accumulating on recent weakness? They join Clear Harbor Asset Management which also holds 5%+ stake. Hopefully, this will draw interest from other small cap investors.
CCCL--Don't know about proppant but please spread the hype as CCCL is one of my larger holdings and underwater. Their Q4 guidance wasn't great but still think it's pretty undervalued so long as they maintain dividend.
The biggest risk I see is their growing receivables. Any impairment write off could ruin a quarter and, if bad enough, cause them to lower dividend. I'm wondering whether this recent sell off to a dividend yield of over 9% is related to this concern.
Until today the volume has been terrible since late January probably because of Chinese New Year. Hopefully higher volume will continue and pick the share price back up again. Last year there weren't any PRs or filings until mid April when they filed their Annual Report so there may not be any near term catalyst for the stock to run.
Despite above concerns, I think it's cheap in the low 2's and should have a good run up past 3 in the coming months. In the meantime, the .10 semiannual dividend adds to any stock appreciation.
LLEN--Don't know if massive fraud. However, their PRs were so sloppy and overly promotional I have to believe their underlying books and records are a mess. Once the SEC starts digging I'm guessing at a minimum they'll have to restate their numbers.
UVE--I sold the August 10 puts at $1.30 which would get me in at $8.70 if put. Even if a bad hurricane season that would seem like a good entry point. Doubt it gets put.
HWEB-According to a rep at etrade it's an ATT issue for those who use ATT as internet provider. Do you use ATT by chance?
still haven't been able to log onto etrade although nonfinancial websites seem to be working normally. Probably the flood of people following last week's decline tinkering with their portfolios.
Can't get to etrade login screen. Never happened before.
While a correction after this long bull market should be expected, I don't see what triggered today's sell off. A very slight contraction in Chinese manufacturing for a few weeks in January? Much more material negative data points were glossed over regularly during this bull run. And there was positive housing data released today which seems much more relevant to US stocks. Just seems like a disconnect.
CCCL--Being pumped some place? Volume is exploding. That director news is old.
CCCL--Probably too boring for you KONE investors but seems to have broken through some resistance after I cleared out a seller at $2.44.
WH--Guess I got in too early. Now the spread vs. 3.20 almost 50%. Not much confidence in the deal I guess.
I bought three mortgage reits NLY, TWO and JMI which seem to have stabilized at very high dividends (even after some dividend cuts). I also bought some LEAPS for NLY and TWO on the theory that over the next 12-24 months investors will bid down those yields. Although increasing long term rates cause their existing portfolios to decline in value prompting recent write downs, it also increases the spread between the new mortgages they buy and short term rates. Unless long term rates spike up again quickly, I think these mreits should trade up over the coming year.
WH--Took a position at $2.42 where somebody is dumping. Nice premium if it goes through at $3.20 and could be higher. Also, while these buyouts take a long time, this one has dragged on for a while so could be closer to the finish line. We'll see.
It's interesting to me that the Shanghai index was down about 8% for 2013 so no apparent correlation there.
APWC--Just reported .13 for Q3 which is much improved. They only report 9 month numbers so you need to go back and extrapolate Q3 by looking at their 6 month numbers.
CCCL--Nice pop and great volume today. Still very cheap at $2.40 IMO for longer hold with dividend yield over 8% or for swing trade.
GV--I bought a chunk more today at $1.93 in multiple trades to bring my average cost just below $2. Now my 4th largest position. Hopefully, the motivated seller will go away, and they'll have some good news before earnings in late March.
CCCL--Popping early. Big seller might be done?
LIWA--Has bucked the downward market trend the past week with good volume and price rise. If real investors actually start to believe their numbers including over $6 in cash it could take off. I'm long.
CCCL--Dividend now yielding 9% with plenty of cash and cash flow to pay it. Should be a great entry point with great yield and appreciation potential. Although they haven't raised this as an issue, there may be some risk of bad receivables which have risen recently.
LIWA really bouncing back last few days.
APWC--Bought some from 2.95 up to 3.08. Very volatile today. Maybe a combination of tax loss selling/dumping/capitulation and the political situation in Thailand where they have significant operations. Interestingly, their publicly traded affiliate there (CTW on Bangkok exchange) has had a stable share price in recent trading days.
APWC--Why did it stop then resume trading?
TRIT--Surging on volume. Thought about it yesterday but didn't pull the trigger.
DRAD--
From that same negative article. While there's some institutional selling, there are also some pretty sophisticated buyers:
In addition to Red Oak other institutional/hedge fund sellers include: Perkins Capital Management Inc, Thomson Horstman & Bryant, Inc, Dafna Capital Management, WHV Investment Management, Northern Trust Investments, N.A., Vanguard Group, Renaissance Technologies Corp and UBS Securities LLC.
There are also notable buyers: Mellon Cap DL Market Completion Fund, BlackRock Fund Advisors, Somerset Capital Advisers LLC, Medical Mutual Of Ohio, Ancora Advisors LLC, Croft Leominster Inc, Essex Investment Management Company, LLC, Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC, Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc., Manufacturers Life Insurance Co, Merrill Lynch & Co Inc.
CHC--Looks that something's up. Maybe news on buyout is forthcoming?
LIWA--Has been in steady decline. Any views on what price may offer technical support?
HIHO--I'm selling 1/3 of my sister's shares. I'm more disciplined about taking profits for her than I am for myself. I sold half her CCCL at $3.90 and held all of mine for the roundtrip back to $2.50.
CCCL tanking. Hit piece? Don't see anything.