Empire Building 101
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He sold StarBud dispensaries and all his interests to SHWZ and currently a huge part of management. IMO, he would be very comfortable doing the same here. I believe it was/has been in the works. If it happens is $60K question. With that said if it walks like a duck, talks like a duck, it probably is a duck. Yes I believe it will be tied in with SHWZ very soon plus a couple more small dispensaries. Probably cash and more preferred stock at a price higher than the $1.20 would be my guess possible $2.40-$2.50
Excellent post that will hugely impact internal growth. This is why I believe the manufacturing and Purplebee's is going to blow the numbers out of the water and strongly believe that numbers have been intentionally low-balled. The proverbial under-estimate over deliver truly applies here.
Also do not forget that Purplebee's growth was 300% Y/y for Q1. They are currently at a $30 Mil run-rate. Now add in 17 labs and management is coming in with $115 Mil. Absolutely way low by any yardstick or metric used.
IMO, Purplebee's growth is going to continue at hyper-growth for the foreseeable future. Also this alone could be the biggest brick in the wall for all of our fancy PPS forecasts as Purplebee's could easily become a buyout. As I have said and will continue to say Purplebee's is the golden ticket here along with a star-studded chain of dispensaries that is growing nicely with more coming very soon.
Even with the diluted share structure including preferred shares we will be at a little over 1 for P/S for next year.
Plus over $20 Mil cash on hand.
$10 next week is a given IMO.
Steven, I didnt take your statement to mean ALL acquisitions were going to be called off until the stock price was of fair value
Exactly if I sounded like that not at all what I meant. IMO, we will get news from the one already Dye(management) eluded to. After that I believe we will see multiple smaller ones and then year end a much larger one that we get to the $5-$6 PPS. Your thoughts indeed match my thinking. Hopefully just dotting some i's and crossing the t's to complete the one Dye mentioned due soon.
My apologies Drugdoctor as I did remember the statement and my interpretation but thought it was Dye. However, they are both on the same page. Regardless, still holding very strong and adding when possible.
Why the cynical remarks? This is a message board with everyone's input. If you remember correctly Dye does not want to do deals at this opps as he feels we are severely undervalued. Thus the road shows etc. My only point was consolidation is happening and like any business the question is do the potential acquisitions wait until the pps is and terms are satisfactory or take another offer via stock or cash. Your snide remarks obviously curtail any open discussions.
Yes they have but the changes and consolidation are happening so fast. Money talks and obviously the pickings are good now. We need to strike when the irons are hot.
I believe Dye is going to have to close on deals despite the pressure at a much lower PPS than they planned on. To much pressure by the major MSO's who are paying premium $ to complete acquisitions. IMO
PS although the $20 Mil cash on hand can help!
Yes it could be a little longer but the fact that someone is accumulating in a big way even with low volume is telling. I am holding very strong as this is a story that I believe is going to be a zip code changer. GLTA Hold tight and hold long and strong.
I believe we are on the verge of a breakout very soon. Accumulation has been very obvious as anything under $2.50 is snapped up quickly. Someone is adding very quietly and consistent. The consolidation is about over.
These buyers are very smart and won't "run the stock", they are just quietly accumulating ahead of the next merger/acquisition NEWS, and likely are going to hold long term.
I totally believe big accumulation is taking place. By whom is anyone's guess.
Breakout is imminent IMO very soon. Accumulation is high.
Amazing strength with PPS lately. With higher volume certainly will lead to a breakout soon. Would love to see a 200k volume day which I believe would lead to the breakout. It appears very tight hands holding lately. Getting close to news as Dye said in a few weeks. I believe manufacturing comes 1st then retail, and last grower. The reason for grower last is Dye is very happy with growers and the relationship developed.
Forecast lowered from .13 to .o6 for this year. Next year remains at .26
The golden goose here is Purplebee's and remember every acquisition will just add more distribution. Sales were $2.5 Mil last year Q1 and up to $7.5 Mil this year. That is $30 Mil this year which is without the other 5 Star Buds as they were acquired end of March. However with the planned acquisition very possible they were also selling product in those stores. Already almost 30% of sales even though they are pr0-form at $115 Mil estimate. Now think if paid well over $100 Mil. for Star Buds look at what they actually paid for Purplebee's.
Under the terms of the agreement, which has been unanimously approved by the Medicine Man Technologies, Inc. Board of Directors, the purchase consideration for the merger is approximately $2.6 million in cash and approximately 2.6 million in shares of common stock, subject to certain holdback and adjustment provisions.
So now we have over $30 Mil revenues on Purplebee's purchase this year plus 4 dispensaries which are becoming Star Bud's. IMO, Purplebee's will do in excess of $35 Mil. this year (acquired for chump change) and believe that at 10x P/S Purplebee's alone is already worth more than current price without Star Buds. Also IMO, they could easily get this if they ever put it on the block which obviously they would not. These are facts not some farfetched pipe dream.
Make no mistake this is severely undervalued and anyone with vision and patience will see this unfold. Management may appear much slower than we want but once you open all the doors it is so obvious where this ends.
Volume picking up nicely. Something good is coming no doubt. Maybe just a good E.R.
Agree if not soon later for sure. An MSO will definitely buy this IMO. Agree they will be bought out soon.
IMO, this is probably the most telling snap shot of SHWZ for 2021. Lot of great info and smaller snippets but this captivates everything condensed for this year in one paragraph as is.
New guidance as follows:
Projected revenue of approximately $110 million to $125 million; and
Projected adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure, of approximately $30 million to $36
million.
The Company remains optimistic regarding the full year based upon reported results to date,
the completion of the Star Bud acquisition and the integration of the Mesa Organics and Star
Bud dispensaries which is proceeding above expectations.
Adjusted EBITDA represents income (loss) from operations, as reported, before tax,
adjusted to exclude non-recurring items, other non-cash items, including stock-based
compensation expense, depreciation and amortization, and further adjusted to remove
acquisition related costs, and other one-time expenses, such as severance. The Company
uses adjusted EBITDA as it believes it better explains the results of its core business. The
Company has not reconciled guidance for adjusted EBITDA to the corresponding GAAP
financial measure because it cannot provide guidance for the various reconciling items. The
Company is unable to provide guidance for these reconciling items because it cannot
determine their probable significance, as certain items are outside of its control and cannot
be reasonably predicted. Accordingly, a reconciliation to the corresponding GAAP financial
measure is not available without unreasonable effort.
I believe Joe Gnomes forecast was an expectation of the final acquisition of Star Bud's done earlier plus excluded certain costs that were one time in nature.
Me too. Hope to buy more very soon. Goal 100k. 75% there. GLTA
After taking the time to really look at the 10Q a few observations.
1) to many add-ons etc. to make a real call on earnings. Derivatives can really have a play on earnings making them good/bad.
2)Professional fees will probably remain high with more acquisitions coming.
3)stock based costs will probably remain high.
4) with the last StarBuds acquisition end of March interest will g up significant next Q.
However, despite this the positives are superior to these costs which will impact the overall bottom line health of SHWZ.
1) Star Buds revenue increased almost 20% this year.
2) Purple Bee's up 300% vrs Y/Y comps.
3)Margins up 8% points.
4)Mesa dispensaries are now SHWZ and expect much higher revenues.
5)EBIDTA forecast to $36 Mil
6)No one can overlook the mention of acquisitions will add much more revenues this year providing they are closed quickly which will greatly increase EBIDTA than forecasted
Would have been a much clearer picture had the CFO included both GAAP and Non GAAP earnings. They are much better than the $3.6 Mil loss.
PS Can't believe the name was a topic of conversation with all the positivity. Waste of ink IMO and absolutely nothing to do with where Dye takes this co. Naming the other labs SCHWAZZ is very telling.
Overall very good I like the fact that we are overall cash flow positve. Plus income per dispensary is up nicely. It will take some time but truly going to be a real winner. Purplebee's is doing incredible. $7 Mil for the Q vrs $2,5 Mil y.y. Definitely really nothing but good happening.
About what I expected although the net loss at $3.6 Mil was more than I expected. No surprises over all.
You have a business and every decision falls back to you. Same here my friend everything revolves around Dye specifically SHWZ related. Where he is smarter than the average bear IMO is he surrounds himself with experts. Many do not do this because of egos whereas he does it solely for results and does not let his ego interfere with the dream.
Yes the market is tanking and we are seeing some very positive trading. Hang on THCM as you may become much wealthier than you already are!
Volume picking up nicely. Hope it is a positive leak but probably not. This team is very close lipped IMO.
So much agree with you and without a doubt better times are coming. Very excited to be here before the boom time and will wait patiently as the story unfolds. Good times coming IMO! Appreciate your thoughts.
To the moon old buddy. The old saying you ain't seen nothing yet!
I look for a real thrashing in the market this year and feel the safest bet is in this sector. I have a few others here but 75% is in SHWZ Currently in BLOZF as it is a company trying to get a patent on a THC breathalizer, HITI a fast growing Canadian firm, and FFNTF who has a lot of grow footage who I believe is a huge sleeper and takeover candidate and SLGWF who is a manufacturer of edibles and a plan to expand. Like I said I have 75% in SHWZ that is how much I believe in this co. Sure hope earnings and call go over well.
I am all in here my friend. Make no mistake this is the real McCoy. I have done probably as much or more DD here than most. This is not a team of peeps put together with trial and error but of seasoned veterans with decades of experience. I worked in a Fortune 100 company and as soon as they made an acquisition they would bring in our "team" and basically get rid of everyone. Not a clue at all and within a few years lost market share along with margins etc. Here we have experts in all areas with a huge vested interest.
You said you bought more today. Why would you do that if you feel they are investing(wasting funds) in the wrong direction. While we are investing in a new fast growing sector we are really investing in management.
I feel much better about todays news and I would bet JD has some surprises in store for us this week. Seed to sale has a lot in between and I think R&D has its place in what SHWZ can offer.
Glad to hear that as I believe a goldrush is coming. I questioned a lot of things including the preferred stock for $1.20 plus interest. There is no one here that was more cynical than me after a few moves that I felt were enriching insiders.
IMO, this is merely a game of chess for Dye and while many throughout history have made fortunes and become icons within their own right very few have been able to walk away and do it again. Very few. Egos are high but the 2nd go around the bar is much higher as apples and oranges are not the same.
Why do I think this time is different? Because grocery marts are basically marketing food and with a 100% of population participating you have quite a vast market and it obviously comes down to (1) thing and only one thing and that is marketing and nothing else. Well the kicker here is that while this is a fledgling market that has vast appeal with 68% of population wanting full legalization this is a market with vast opportunities. For me the similarities with what Dye did with Albertson's are strikingly the same. Thus the cookie cutter approach and rolling up Colorado. and then follow through with multi-state is so doable even Steveie Wonder can see it. They are now involved with all facets of the industry. Plus with the preferred's nobody can outvote management and steal the company.
Nitpicking at this stage with the "story" intact and being told by Dye at this stage is really nothing more than a laymen's opinion and virtually worthless. From my DD and others I am now committed knowing all bases are now covered as of today. Yes their will be speed bumps but that is because and only because this company is about to go full throttle forward. Make no mistakes and if you now question the motives of management sell here and go with the large multi state operators at 10-30 times the PPS. GLTA
Agree 100%. Dye did not put millions in to break even. I believe their is a grandiose plan and being 100% vertical from seed to sale this is not only essential but required to cover all aspects of marketing. Funny how everyone was a believer in everything while I questioned things and now I am 100% on board and certainly peeps are now questioning this move. This move is well thought out and plays into our billion dollar market cap coming soon!
This bodes well for the future. It may take longer and more patience but news like this does make the future look that much better.
So quiet here you can here a pin drop. IMO, we will be cash flow positive as stated but still a loss of $1 -$2 Mil. Remember cash flow positive means there is money to pay all the bills and no correlation with net income. Hope I am wrong and they have net income. If that were to happen look for new highs immediately. With a decent amount of cash flow positive we should still see $3 soon enough. Come on Dye we are dyeing to hear the story.
Going to bring even more attention here IMO quickly. The small mom and pop stores will get crushed even faster than they already have. Come on SHWZ let's get some announcements detailing these future acquisitions before someone steals them right under our nose.
Nothing new to our expectations. Just spelled out clearer and more precise
New Presentation. Nothing new $121Mil Pro-form for 21 and 250 Mil 22. They did include all the preferred stock in market cap which now gives us 3:1 price to sales.
https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_050d3eb22f9037b9912cb020a1d0c8cf/schwazze/db/341/2479/pdf/SCHWAZZE+INVESTOR+PRESENDATION+MAY.pdf
Anyway people can agree or disagree with me, that is their choice. I always look at things in a different perspective than many so my ideas may sound crazy to some. At least, you know where I stand now. I will be gone all day tomorrow so I won't be able to post anything further until I come back. Wishing all SHWZ shareholders much future fortune.[/b
Agree with many of your thoughts. My concern is with such high insider ownership institutions may not want to get involved as the float is so low for them to get a sizeable investment. Certain;y they don't get involved in a mania and over pay only to watch the stock drop hard after the mania is over INO, thi is a concern that even you have had to think about.
Probably once again failed to get this point across.
Really. Might have to take a road trip here in July and meet you personally. Dealing with a few issues currently. Glad your back in the states.