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I hope they rip this run up for next few weeks china goes offline for there new year early feb. Could be a good few weeks of bullish action. Id prefer that over chop.
Transfer of wealth for the peons to the rich.
All good points. Thats why i like putting my ideas out here. I have time to adjust whether or not to take itm atm, or otm theta that far out wont kill the cons on otm so fast. The one Huge difference from last years case of ltp and this time is an actual sell signal. Not a hunch its going to happen its confirmed least for iwm at this point.
I dream about buying a monster-box. Not there though. I buy 20's when i can. Congrats though must feel like christmas when that arrives.
There you go using tread lines n stuff again. :p
Yessir its a slow and steady LT position. I wouldn't be interested in this on a hunch, but just as riskon has been mentioning about SPY 20Y historically you get a sell signal on that its not easily reversed, doesn't happen overnight or over months but its fate is in the book. Small caps are done... Im sure more indexes to follow.
The variable of QE could possible derail or delay the plan. But ill take TA lead over macro economics/ financial engineering and see how it plays out. i agree nothing is straight down, thats why i would start taking ITM/ATM position to avoid theta decay, day trade scalp SPY use the proceeds to accumulate those pricey cons on rallies.
By the time it plays out can be a nest egg.
The path of least resistance is the way institutions will play with there easy borrowed money imo.
hey Imiloa,
back in 08 SPY and R2K gave back 100% from from there 2003 lows. Think spy went little further actually. IWM would be easier target for me to Go LTP with no worry cause at the moment its technically the only index showing sell.
My plan is to buy PUTS going out to 2017 starting a small position and accumulate more on POPS.
And to keep things interesting Daytrade SPY on the daily. SPY still has very long term buy in place, but its sagging. IWM didnt catch a good bid all oct it lagged offering little upside on calls. So SPY still has pops left in the tank IMO.
Yes china it would be helpful to know when your going to depeg from usd.. gl laggard!
Fwiw 20 year iwm /R2k is the only index with longterm sell sig this month first of its kind since 08. Yup not even 2011. As small caps go......
Going LT puts on the next trip to OB on weekly prob legin OB on daily. cause it will test the ema's that just crossed bearish on the 20Y
IMF's Lagarde says markets need clarity on China currency
Print | A A A
BY REUTERS| ASIA-PACIFIC , CHINA | 5:34 AM ET 01/23/2016
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Financial markets need more clarity on how the Chinese authorities are managing their currency, particularly the relationship of the yuan to the U.S. dollar, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said on Saturday.
Asked at a panel discussion in Davos whether she would back capital controls by China for a period, she avoided a direct reply but said: "Certainly a massive use of reserves would not be a particularly good idea ... Some of it was already used."
She said that the market needed "clarity and certainty" about China's exchange rate basket "in particular with reference to the dollar, which has always been the reference".
"That would be the right move to make," she added.
Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda said his personal view was that capital controls would be an appropriate way for China to reconcile its need to keep domestic monetary policy loose while stabilising its currency. (Reporting by Noah Barkin and Paul Taylor)
https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/markets_sectors/news/global_story.jhtml?storyid=201601230534RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_B4N0ZH01S_1&provider=RTRSNEWS&product=COMBINED&category=AsiaPacific%2CCN&searchTopic=allcountries
Thats not a bad looking trade, I never looked at options on slv they have a .43 delta for only .20c a con? or is my option chain misreading quote?
How does it feel knowing foreign bank owns your 401K?
If Karuda doesnt budge next thursday look out below. If he moves and Yen tanks might get a V shape rally. But i dont think it will last with China our other owner has its own interest in mind, depeg Kaboom
http://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-japan-gov-kuroda-bears-high-stakes-for-stimulus-1453358112
Cool. I was looking at those if you time it perfect get a limit fill and sell market your golden. The ITM prems are insane on those calls. Thats potential life changer
horrible spread though.
82.41 gap fill target on fxy/Y imo it overshoots a little 82.19 spy 191 ish
You just have to counter that with fed like bid on spy to spoof the bots.
Nice trade. If we close as is you can prob bank on gap up in the morning. But id be weary of holding beyond that if the market gives us that imo
Better diversify yo bonds ni****
russells 2k only off .95%
agreed. Unless its a surprise V shape rally we still have chop to deal with before next trend either follow through or reversal, and that is one of my new years resolution dont trade the chop!
Crazy to see that long wick on daily and still be off $4
The shorter term Ema's are overpowering the oscillators on the 1y and 2Y. to much weight for a significant bounce imo. Yeah oversold but trend down is strong. Just like the ema's held up the price in oct...
Not sure man. but spy has 10 days to get its Ass back into the bolli on 20 year. Last time it was remotely close to where it is now was 2008. She's rollin
agreed when weeks go by with no momo then there will be some real bailing out on BTFD mentality, thats when we should consider going long.
*Watch BOJ next friday for policy decisions. If they go negative interest rates which is in there hand to play now since there in a bear market. the yen will tank causing our markets to have a RYFO rally.
not sure but this is probably better for bulls then seeing a gap up vanish like the last few times. I dont think any long term buy signal will be put in yet.
The market will bounce after inflicting heavy losses to longs' side imo
Oil at 28 a barrel! i filled 93 premium from empty the other day same as that.
Good read. I like the "rip your face off rally" term. wasn't that oct lol?
Ive thought the same thing about everyone in bear camp now and the major oversold condition might be setting up for another oct type rally perhaps.
He covered TA to a T and that was juicy good stuff. but left out one thing, The Rate increase and how that effects currency carry trade all over the world. that can bring on Stealth orderly selling we have been seeing, and a long period in OS conditions exact opposite of oct.
Our fed yeah i have no clue wtf there doing.
i was watching there fed aka BOJ for more qe to surprise us. Last two times they said no more hence pushing there currency higher. This time maybe they will? nobody is expecting it and ppl are long that pair its crowded if it tumbles it will quick. thats my bull case anyway for eqd markets might be the markets last hope.
Today ehh as far as eod possibly, im terrible with intra day calls man, your the master at that shizzle.
looking like doji day possibly, that should give some inspiration?
for the bot buying attention today?
Yes i believe so, as always what we talked about few post ago the inverse relationship is scarily spot on. can that be manipulated? yes it can it can also fill that gap up today (check fxy) that can bring on some spy buying.
Note BOJ has meeting Jan. 28 (Thurs.), 29 (Fri.) im watching this very close when it comes up. Cause if they launch another more massive qe that surprises the markets that would cause JPY to drop turning on the bots for a furious V shape rally. Got some time before now and then though.
understood i follow the same theory, about smaller sma,ema and such being resistance/support and propellers and killers of momo all revolving around D50 magnet.
I havent posted about it. Looking at it now yeah, need this hours candle to close as is. then prob see climb
when does D50 become a magnet again?
IMO short term i think we flush here or monday then we get a real decent relief rally. Ill grab puts on shorter term chart when occilators get pegged in overbought. Not seeing that happen on daily chart though.
good point its all relative to scale. .25 compounding billions is massive. as we both know our JPY/USD pair is top contender of the year to screw every Americans 401K holding.
Its amazing, im so glad to be witnessing a time like this in the market. And a chance to make life changing money...
I don't think they can overide basic TA
well put. Bunch of joker clowns, Hope they pull the .25 out of there asses when HFT goes rouge and still tanks the markets.
all for a lousy .25 interest rate hike jeez talk about house of cards. Starting to think QE will be brought back thats why they hastily took it away so they actually have something to calm markets.