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Hitting Resistance on the NDX 60min.
I guess we'll see what happens once the report comes out at 10AM.
Agree, probably down Short-term.
$NAMO has been positive and looks to be at a near-term top with the close on friday at 40.95. VXO looks like it wants to bounce off 20. NDX, hitting major rez at the 50ma. It looks tough and most likely won't crack it on the 1st try. But if it goes above the 50ma it looks like the inverse H+S pattern may play out to 2100.
SPX Line in the sand is also on the 50ma at 1495.
Foot, are you using LBR's measured moves? When you do the A to B and C to D? She uses measured moves a lot. I think she's on vacation for the past week or so. She hasn't posted anything new.
Gleno, I was telling foot the other day that this could be the making of an inverse H+S on the NDX/QQQQ. Especially for the NDX if you look at the 60min chart with the target at about 2100. But I'd rather be safe than sorry and take 1/2 out now before my road trip out to Seattle next Monday night or Tuesday morning. Haven't decided yet. (Haven't packed either for the movers.)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22304916
$NDX looks like it's hitting major rez at the 50ma. $SPX has more room to run at 1495. INDU major rez at 13475. $VXO getting close to 20. Selling 1/2 of my mutual funds at the close.
$VXO in a down trend, next stop 20. Fear is subsiding; I guess everyone thinks the fed's going to bail everyone out on 9/18.
Volume is important, but also price. Price uber alles.
Yeah, I think you're right Oman. I'm still thinking we need to close that gap at NDX 1910 on 8/22. But the market action after the close of the gap will be very important in telling the direction.
If we bounce off 1910, the gap, and head up then I'm staying long. If we end up closing below the gap it's time to sell those long 401K mutual funds that I bought last Thursday before the close because we'll probably go further down in order to test the recent lows and fill the 1850 gap on 8/17.
Foot what do you think about that gap up on 8/17. It partially filled. Is that good enough for gov. work? I'm waiting on the gap fill at NDX 1910 to see whether or not to stick my neck out on more longs.
Foot, the $NDX 60min chart looks like it's about to roll over and fill the gap of 8/21. But if it bounces up from filling that gap then we could have an inverse H+S to NDX 2100.
Low at 1800, Neckline at 1950, Right Shoulder at 1900 after filling the gap and a reversal to 2100.
Heh... Foot I'd love to see a run to 1519 by Friday. I put some 401K funds to work last Thursday and would love to close out before I take my road trip out to Seattle. (I was hoping to hold those funds til after labor day when I actually got to my sister's place so that I can greet her and jump on her computer!)
Geez... Just got home and am looking at charts right now. LOL Big bucks? I wish! If I had the big bucks I can sit at home like all you rich guys and day trade.
Too bad I can't sit and watch this. I'd like to scale in on a short term qid trade because of the R3s, and current NDX rez; but, I have to drive from Baltimore down to Herndon today. (1 1/2 hours 1 way)
I guess I'll just sit on my hands today and stay in cash. The only good thing so far about getting a new job is that the past 2 weeks I've been able to day trade and watch the markets more. (Because of delegating lots of work to other people.)
Yeah, according to Scam. But there was a DJIA R3 yesterday too! 5:1. So I am being cautious and sold my longs into the gap this morning.
Sold DDM during the openning gap. Out at $1.25. Still holding on to the 401K longs though. May scale in on the 401K longs interim term if this R3 goes into affect.
There's an R3 on the Dow. Almost 5:1. Anyhow, futures are up which means there could be a possible gap and crap. I still think we go up for the interim term though til about Labor Day. I like your ABC scenario. I may sell into the open today. Picked up some DDM yesterday.
S&P 500 +10.10 1460.40 8/22 7:31am S&P 500 FUTURES
Fair Value 1448.86 8/21 6:56pm
Difference* +11.54
NASDAQ +7.00 1926.75 8/22 7:23am NASDAQ FUTURES
Fair Value 1916.41 8/21 6:56pm
Difference* +10.34
Dow Jones +73.00 13190.00 8/22 7:27am
DJIA Contracts
Man... That Inverted Yield curve chart looks scary! Up for the next 1-2 weeks, end of month, up into labor day and then down.
When is Big Ben suppose to announce/speak?
Cool chart. I'll have to steal that. Hehe...
Yeah... It looks like the MACD on the VXO/VIX is about to cross down on the daily. $NAHGH are at only 2 this morning.
Gleno...
The Nasdaq New Highs is showing an almost positive macd. I tend to take a look at the number of new highs everyday and the VXO. When it was a 9 last Thursday it looked like a time to go long. I'm still debating on an exit strategy. I guess we'll have to see how things develop in the next few days.
Foot, I figure you'd be able to substantiate how many loans are Alt-a/Subprime. I think CNBC said it was less than 10% of total loans. Some guy on another board posted this chart of the BKX. It has a positive macd, but is still under the 50/200. I don't know if I'd buy any banking or the bkx index unless we went above the 200ma. Do you really see a big contagion/over blown situation/snowball effect or financial crisis?
I agree Denmo, looks bullish with the postive macd divergence. Are you getting into the banking index or stocks? or do you think the subprime woes is too risky? From listening to the people on CNBC they say the subprime/alt-A is less than 10% of all home loans out.
I'd feel more comfortable if we can get past the 200ma
Yeah... Actually I just looked at the dates and you're right. Although he just posted those charts today. Anyhow, the down trend lines still look like good points to either get out of longs or to start shorting.
Foot,
I was looking at another guy's chart out on Clearstation. From his downtrend channel, it looks like NT back up to:
13500 DJIA?, 2560 COMPQ?, 1465 SPX?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22190123
LBR think's there's a little more room to go up on the summation tick.
LBR Summation Tick:
Tick Summation Index based on hourly readings. High readings indiacte overbought while low readings indicate oversold. Bottoms tend to be sharp V-type reversals while tops are more often formed on a loss of momentum or divergences.
OT - Thanks for the advice. Hehe... I promised my wife that if she didn't like it out in the PAC NW, in two years we'll be back in the D.C. area. I do like WY a lot. Just climbed out in the Tetons for 9 days in July. I would like to go to Montana and learn how to fly fish.
Thanks... I still think all new is bad news. Market Sentinment is just plain bad. Even if the feds cut the funds rate this up and coming meeting. People will perceive it negatively because of everything else going on.
I'm looking for a little up and then more down. Did you look at smooth's charts this weekend on the Clearstation board? I think we there is a bigger chance that we rally up to his trendlines and then more down.
13500 DJIA?, 2560 COMPQ?, 1465 SPX?
That's a big W. Normally when I see Ws I see bottoms. I remember when I started following your posts back in 2002-2003 after the crash and the big W. The question is will Uncle Ben be able to help?
OT Foot... I'll still be a Republican at heart (same with my wife) even though I know I'm going to the west coast with die hard liberals. My buddies told me I'll turn into a moss eater as well as a granola muncher. But, anyhow my wife is from South Georgia (Albany), it'll be a big change for her since she's never been there before. I go out to the Rockies and Pacific NW at least 1-2x a year to ski and climb been doing that for 7 years. I'm a rock climber/mountaineer and I figure I might as well get it out of my system before my wife tells me to hang up my shoes for good in about two years cause she wants to probably start up a family. (31 years old right now.)
Foot, I just closed my GE position and SSO position from a couple days ago. Only got out of GE for a +$1, and SSO for +$2.25. But, I was worried about holding through the weekend and plus... my stomach needs some beer after all this volatility. Also I think SPX 1450 is going to be tough resistance. In a way I'm happy that I'm quiting my job and moving on... In the last week I've been able to watch the markets a lot more get some $1 scalps which will pay for gas money since gas is still a bit expensive. But I still left a 1/3 of my money that I bought at the close of yesterday in 401K Mutual funds pretty soon I can roll them over so no more mutual funds. I'll see about holding those til after labor day since I have to drive from Wash DC to Seattle in about a week.
Foot,
Long term... Looks like an H+S in the making. Made it down to the 1365 area for the neckline. 1462 looks like the top for the right shoulder which should come soon and then bam! May be down for to 1172. (Top of Head 1556 - Neckline 1364 = 192. Take 1364 Neckline - 192 = 1172 target for the measured move below the neckline.) That would be scary! But you know how H+Ss are not that reliable.
Yeah I see the rez for both indices... backing off right now from 1450 like you said, and 1894. But, the question is... Is this a 1 day relief rally? or a multi-day rally back to NDX 1932 and SPX
1463.25 the 50% retrace from the Highs/Lows on the Daily?
Seasonality into Labor day. Down after. I sure miss www.vtoreport.com
Yeah... He posts on the SPY board on clearstation.com. I think he use to teach as a professor at Berkeley or Stanford.
He's one smart guy. If you have time this weekend I would recommend reading all his posts for the past 3-4 years. He has a lot of different trading philosophies that work well.
R3, rule of 4, Slimjim, as well as the fed day/after day pattern.
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/postlist?dir=p&point=16509&usernm=scamman
Coming off the 9 nasdaq highs of yesterday. MACD positive divergence.
Is the bottom in for now? I think we go up til Labor day and after Labor day more down.
Thanks, I just re-read scams posting from yesterday and this morning. That guy is really smart! I've learned a lot in the past few years from reading his posts. I think you're right on the 60mins SPX rez is at 1450, and NDX 1900.
Thanks for the reply. It now makes a lot of sense. I just hope the liquidity issue and the financial woes do not get as bad as everyone is predicting.
OT: Gleno... I think I remember you mentioning that you live in Portland, Oregon? I'm finally making the move up to the Pacific NW from the Washington DC/Maryland Area. Although I really wanted to find a job out in Portland. I have a couple of friends that live in Portland, been there a few times, skied at Mt. Hood. Plus, the housing is cheaper compared to Seattle with all those Microsoft, Starbucks, Boeing, Amazon, expedia rich folks off of stock options. Unfortunately there aren't many Network/Security Engineering jobs out in Portland. I tried looking for 6 months. Anyhow, I'll be in Seattle in about 3 weeks. This will be strange tracking the market from 6:30 AM - 1 PM PST. Do you trade much after hours/extended hours?
Geez... Talk about a rally... SP500/Nasdaq up 20-25 points Let's see if it holds or if this is a gap and crap.
S&P 500 +20.50 1445.00 8/17 8:27am S&P 500 FUTURES
Fair Value 1413.69 8/16 6:50pm
Difference* +31.31
NASDAQ +25.50 1882.00 8/17 8:26am NASDAQ FUTURES
Fair Value 1852.30 8/16 6:50pm
Difference* +29.70
Dow Jones -73.00 12871.00 8/17 7:59am
Gleno,
I don't get it... Why would the Feds cut the discount rate, money lent to the major bankers? Maybe I don't understand the entire process, but that really doesn't help the average people or poor folks on Alt-A/Subprime since it's not the federal funds rate that they are cutting.
It just gives the banks more liquidity because it allows them to borrow more money for less interest but I doubt the buck gets passed to the average person. May be I am wrong about the whole thing.
Gleno... I think the $VIX&VXO are getting close to the 40-50 level. 37.69 on the VXO is close enough for gov. work for me. Yesterday I already started scaling a 1/3 of my money into some long positions. I'll slowly start scaling in more in the next week or so and hold til possibly labor day.