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No.
UBS is the financial services firm, UBSS is their 'handle' or whatever its called for listing their orders.
They are retail.
A MM uses UBSS, but UBSS is not the MM.
I almost go squeezed Friday.
Saw the same .119 as the other day near mid afternoon, I knew the price was about to drop. Got two sells in at .1185 and .1175.
Saw it get to towards .115 but was waiting for .113, we never got there.
The price rose to .118 (pretty stable) and I go my .117 buy back in for The exact same position size: didn't lose anything, but Etrade made $19.99 off me.
Bummed but not upset.
Thursday evening.
It's alot of positive news.
Not entirely fluff, but little substance.
Some good 'soft' guidance, but will only attract positive attention, it won't impact quarterly guidance/expectations.
The information makes me optimistic and enthusiastic, but I have nothing to calculate expected market share or earnings that would help my forecasts and valuation.
News like this primes the engine, but we still have to wait for the annual report to get the green light and take off.
.20-.30 after Annual report?
Somebody is bidding this up: bid ask so close yet so little movement? Artificial.
I honestly don't care about people's predictions of dilution: they may or may not be diluting, we'll learn eventually. In the meantime there are profits to be had day in and day out.
I have been turning my profits into portfolio growth: I sold this afternoon looking to get back in when I see fit: I'm up over 13% from my first buyin, and some are doubled and tripled. I'm happy with my growth.... And that gives me alot of room to break even. Each sell/rebuy I make gives me more and more room to break even.
In the meantime, ill have a positive outlook and know that the subsidiaries are kicking ass and revenue is growing: that will drive enthusiasm and the PE will rise on fundamentals ( revenue and earnings) and it'll grow more on audit/uplist by attracting more investors and that will drive the P/E ratio.
Why are we .10-.12? Look at the PE range, 12 to 16... That's where a stable company resides, and until we're audited we won't break a 16 PE without insane/crazy levels of enthusiasm driven by extremely beneficial news.
I completely exhaled at .1185 and .1175, I'm looking to rest a moment, stop coughing, then take a bigger hit somewhere below .116.
.119 was the peak the other day and there was a huge selloff two days in a row, when I saw .119 I wasn't able to get my order in until .1185 then only sold about 1/5th of my position and sold the rest at .1175.
I'm willing to take a small squeeze to get back in, I started this with only $5200 and have been growing my position ever since, and I can afford to take a small loss in position before we blow up.
Ill waste one of my 5 posts:
That interview was great: I wish MJNA would send out a PR for each closed distribution agreement.
I wasnt aware we were already in AZ and finishing up setting up shop in a few other states.
My previous estimations on PPS are based on current news/available numbers, and with news like that I'm surprised we're under .15 right now: a whole 2nd state (AZ) is up and operational? That's great!
I can't wait to read the annual, I hope it contains some strategic info (most big company annuals do, if you know how to read between the lines).
Next 60 days should be interesting: new products doesn't necessarily mean a huge increase in revenues (substitution), but new markets absolutely does!
Doc, you embarrass me, I really thought you understood the stock structure difference between these two companies.
13M vs 598M shares outstanding
Minuscule float versus HUGE float
Low volume might be a good sign, but there are no buyers either.
It's not a bad sign, its just very latent: sideways. News will only cause a flutter : prices will jump around a bit, but all the analysis I've posted suggests .10-.12 very stable, and the midway of that is .11.
So we're dead in the water until audit/uplist/annual report, or the White House stops caring about guns and the congress fixes the budget such that they'll maybe consider taking up this subject.
Otherwise, whatever court of appeals that had the reschedule challenge may go in the favor of MJ for medical purposes, and that should have a strong impact on our P/E.
Unless those unlikely events happen, audit/uplist/annual report are the only thing that will have a sustaining impact on MJNA PPS.
Whoever thinks $1 is delusional at best, they have zero understanding of the market and securities.
To break $1 to get to NASDAQ or any non-OTC market we'll need a buy back. Even if we were valued at $1 with current stock structure, its too close and risky to fall below and get de-listed, we'd need $2 or more to make than transition.
A buy back would be nice, but they could also reverse split when the time comes.
A) not going to happen just yet: they made a statement to the effect that their lawyer recommended avoiding any stock changes until after audit
B) they really don't have the $ to make a significant dent. $1M is only approx 10M shares and only a drop in the bucket against 598M S/O. As well, MJNA is in an expansion period, they need their cash/LOC.
C) if the LOC was secured with 200M shares authorized, using that money to buy back shares outstanding would be a very poor use of debt. 200M shares * .11 = $22M which is more than $15M loc : 15M / .11 = 136M shares, and if we defaulted, that increase in S/O of 66M shares flooding the market after the buyback would devalue our stock even more than the news of default alone.
Using the LOC for non-revenue generating purposes is effectively increasing the risk of default by increasing debt that must be paid back and risking those 200M shares transitioning to shares outstanding. The 15M LOC is not debt, its reserve capital for expenses that doesn't become debt unless they spend it. So its best to keep it until necessary for revenue generating opportunities.
Besides the fact that they have 90 days to report audits, and 90 days for annual report, neither need to be reported next month as per SEC rules. No excuses needed.
Usually, when there is heavy shorting action.
But today's gap up wasnt very significant. If it were to gap with higher volume, then I'd look for it to fall/bounce in the opening hours. (Higher volume being that which feeds opening shorts)
Today's gap was .002 with very little volume: anybody who shorted is getting squeezed and won't make any real money today... Unless they are still holding and hoping for a drop.
This low volume is a nightmare for shorts.
I almost called the top, I called .1195 earlier. When I saw the low volume and sustained .1185 for 20 minutes or so, when it hit .1189 I cancelled my .1195 sell order!!! That low volume and stability was telling me if it drops, it won't drop far (during opening hours).
From this point on in the day I have no prediction.. Could go either way.
I am taking notes that technicals will see later: a few days of decent growth then a small growth (.1165 to .117) is a top indication... Of course we could go higher today and that prediction get tossed in the garbage.
If we close below .118 we might see an opportunity to sell tomorrow and buy back, increasing our positions a few %.
This rise might just be enthusiasm being allowed to run: the shorts are looking for volume, but with lower volume and investor enthusiasm / confidence we're seeing the price rise.
If the price rises far enough, we'll trigger trading news and more people will get involved, volume will increase and the shorts will have more opportunity.
If I could login to that link I could answer my following question:
When was that reschedule announced?
Could this be the 'imminent' news?
Given their history, I don't expect any substantial news from MJNA until audit submitted/uplist/Q4 & Annual.
A PR announcing the audit has commenced would be nice, but that's not their style to comment on anything ongoing.
6300 shares? I don't know.
The hearing is at 9:45 PST (12:45EST) and if there is a plea bargain or they're dropping charges, it'll take 15 minutes and case closed, if not, it's going to take awhile.
So don't expect news on that subject until 2nd half of the trading day.
"Immininent" could just be sometime later this week, but could that be the source of our unexpected rise in PPS?
Are insiders buying up or are MM's just driving the price up so they can short this morning?
I'm tempted to place an sell at .1195, but this 'imminent' has me curious.
Worst case scenario, I sell and get pinched as news drives the price into mid .12s.
Alternate WCS I don't sell and price drops because of MM shenanigans, in which case I missed out on a great opportunity to harvest more shares on the rebuy, but that's not a bad thing, just a 'doh!'
In my case its called 'expected return', taking multiple scenarios into account and normalizing them for probabilities of occurrence.
It's allows to create a range of values similar to a cone of confidence weather analysts use to predict hurricane paths.
You realize MJNA does not grow or sell raw marijuana plants?
You have the enthusiasm, but do you understand the market and what niches MJNA serves?
$10pps = approximately $6B market valuation.
That won't happen in the next 10 years, if ever, with the current business plan that's in place: but things can change.
You really don't understand supply/demand curves nor stock structures do you?
At first I was nice, breaking down the differences and explaining why that won't happen with MJNA, but now I'm just saddened and unwilling.
Maybe if you pay for a months membership for me ill send you a private message breaking down the finer points of Medbox vs MJNA.
Really? Trying to compare MJNA to Medbox is like comparing apples and peanuts, IN EVERY WAY POSSIBLE! It's not even apples and oranges.
But I'll just write you off as just an enthusiastic pot smoker, not somebody who cares to learn about fundamental finance/markets.
What timeframe?
-Months end? .10-.12s : lots of fluctuation, no substance
-The week after audit/uplist and annual/Q4, mid 20s
-One year, upper 50s through $1, depending on reschedule, Fed strategy and how prepared MJNA is to pay for FDA testing (not cheap)
So many unanswered questions, I can give you a full mathematical breakdown based on expected earnings per quarter, but we have zero clue about the expansion plans, licensing fees for other states or regions, Phytosphere contracts, etc.
Because of that, we can't develop expectations, we can only analyze PPS based on previous quarters numbers.
But we do know the stock structure and $1 is a company valuation of $600M, and that's only likely to happen with a high PE ratio due to investor confidence, and while we like to hear about future ideas, we need #s and confidence is kept low because they aren't very expressive in their reports.
LOL! That's more like it. Some folks are just 'pro green' and very enthusiastic, just lacking in any understanding of finance.
Franchise or IP licensing royalties are not as lucrative as causal expansion.
Why did they go the licensing route? Less risk to individual state differences and intra-state commerce issues. Letting somebody else make the THC products and just collect a fee for the brand name and recipes removes federal liability.
With less risk comes less reward.
I would prefer they actually open manufacturing sites in each MMJ state and let distributors handle the marketing and instate expansion amongst the dispensaries. More risk, more reward.
It requires an audit and proper filing which is identical to SEC, so it pays dividends to report to the SEC even if they are not required.
Nor do they have to.
They want to start reporting in order to be taken seriously, but the SEC had no oversight of the OTC markets, and being on the OTC exchange means its not required of them.
If we assume our current price range is based on solid fundamentals, its is my opinion that if we double the earnings from one quarter to the next, we would triple the PPS.
It's easier for a company to double 1.19M to 2.4M than it is to double 11.9M to 24M.
If and only if we audit/uplist. Without audit we won't break the 12-16 PE range.
The doubling/outstanding performance would drive investor confidence and that would drive enthusiasm which can be measured by the PE ratio.
Q3 earnings was 1.19M, round up and double: Say Q4 2.4M, 598M SO, multiplying by the earnings by 4 to annualize: With a 12-16 PE
12: (9.6M * 12) = 19.2¢ PPS
16: 598M SO / (9.6M * 16) = 25.6¢ PPS
Now this outstanding quarter over quarter performance will increase enthusiasm and the PPS will be driven higher by at least 50%
PPS of 18: 28.89¢ (almost .30!)
PPS of 24: 38.5¢
That's still a small PE for a growth company with this potential, we could see higher, however federal risk dampens the enthusiasm and will keep it from sustaining higher values.
However, this requires double earnings in light of reinvestment expenses (reduced earnings) and reinvestment rarely has a quarter to quarter turnaround. We would need to see new sales from Phytosphere and/or large increase in sales from Dixie due to all of the press its gotten lately.
This is very possible, albeit slightly over enthusiastic.
Why Medbox excluded? They were trading over $2 when they had their unauthorized newsletter pump and dump.
Right now, we are the ONLY marijuana stock. If you take the caveat that the only thing 'marijuana' about MJNA is the one line of Dixie products.
CB__ is a research firm trying to prove, with re-producible / peer reviewable tests, the medical benefits of their marijuana based medicines on Cancer and AIDS, they have no commercial products and their objective is not Over The Counter meds but expensive, insurance covered prescription formularies, Hemp is hemp, paper, fabrics, etc, not marijuana. Medbox is a vending machine company: they could sell ANY prescription medication.
Blanket and limited statements like this really don't help anybody. If you can't quantify and cross reference, you should probably leave the prognostications to those who crunch numbers regularly.
Does anybody think Gluten Free bread would taste better if Phytosphere's oil was baked in?
I've had gluten free bread in my lunch yesterday and today, and I'm thankful I don't have Celiacs disease: I'm pro gluten!
But I'm wondering if MJNA's Phytosphere's raw hemp oil would help the flavor any!
Hmm.. I did not expect to see a return to normal yet..
Gap up, short's driving the drop, shorts closing position and then recovery. The hard part is knowing when to make this play along with the shorts : this is where technicals come in.
With technicals we can get a feeling for a rise or a fall, with increasing volatility and volume, this 30/45 minute pattern is more likely.
If we see this Monday, expect it Tuesday: sell first thing and buy back in before 10/10:15 EST. just create a spreadsheet with your numbers so you can buy back very quickly to avoid any potential short squeeze which is possible at any moment, and very hard to predict minute to minute.
I thought about this yesterday: (long introspective post)
No news? Nah, just news we didn't expect to influence MJNA.
We expect this pink to operate as a normal stock, and for all intents and purposes, the OTC Pink is a real exchange.
The entire US market rose yesterday on Fiscal Cliff avoidance news. Obviously that was not a real fiscal cliff deal, but the market is satisfied: the weeks leading up to NYE brought all markets down because of Fiscal Cliff worries, now things are returning.
Perhaps some of our 'overbought' is because of 2012 tax sell offs getting back in. If that's the case, its not an indicator of a PPS drop. We were riding .11s after the return tier change to 'current', and going into the fiscal cliff the price declined.
.10 is bedrock and perhaps .11 is our comfortable place. .11 is a PE of 13.8'sh and I see us fluctuating between 12-16 based on investor confidence. And confidence is rising and sustainable for the near term.
We have to remember marijuana sector and MJNA news are not the only news that impact investor strategies.
Lets review a simple behavioral concept: the sheep follow the flock and the flock follows the shepherd. When the overall markets are going red, even VERY stable companies PPS decline, as well individual investors follow the institutional trend. Larger market forces can impact our small MJNA when no marijuana sector/MJNA specific news exists to counter act it.
As well, Dixie really got a lot of press this last month and many investors may have stayed out for tax reasons.
We may be seeing a small surge (within my PE expectations, neither over nor under priced), but I don't expect skyrockets or crashes. We're just floating with market forces that tend to know when a stock is underpriced and overpriced based on financial analysis, and that's where our support at .10 comes from.
Technicals can offer insight when all factors align, but they do not take into account news or history, and trend analysis is dangerous without understanding all the coefficients (news, history, executive leadership changes, company strategy changes, etc).
You can learn from history, and history can repeat itself, but you can't predict the future based on history.
Now I'm really going to speculate: lack of audit/pink is what is keeping the PE/trading multiple down. As well, this is indeed a growth stock with lots of enthusiasm behind it, but the very real and undefined risk of federal involvement is also dampening the PE.
Most of us realize the audit is the make or break factor. Some of us can't seem to grasp that and predict Medbox like results.
If we don't get an audited annual report, the prices will surely decline and many of us will lose money.
However, most of us are long because we have confidence that won't happen. Once that's unlocked, the floodgates to higher PE/Multiple/Investor confidence will open. The federal involvement risk is still there (to the market as a whole and as we discussed, we're subject to market forces in general), but with audit we will break out past the 16PE and if the company has entered more states (or agreements to) we'll see better revenues and have some projections to work with that will really drive our PPS.
Imagine for a moment: 1.5 earnings (good growth over Q3, but not much over Q2, not unrealistic, just not awesome): if they haven't diluted and we're still at 598M SO, with a PE range of 12-16 we're looking at a PPS of rock bottom support of .12 through .16. With audit we could easily see a PE of 20, and possibly much more. PE 20 = PPS of .20.
This is based off of a practical growth in earnings from 1.19 to 1.5 (remember Q2 was 1.4M before reinvestment began).
If course, we can speculate on what impact the increased Dixie exposure will have and any growth into new states... I wouldn't expect alot in Q4, I would expect it to start, but momentum won't be seen that soon.
If our earnings take a hit (q3 same or less) because of reinvestment, our revenues must grow some to show reinvestment is working.
We're all excited about this small company's growth expectations, but its not unrealistic to see delayed growth up to a year or two after reinvestment. Things take time: finding land, buying it, construction then production. Any contract negotiations and supplier agreements take time to work out before results (or material goods) are delivered.
I'm just being cautious, we might not see a result of reinvestment until Q2 or Q3. Once we know where they reinvested the money, we'll have a better understanding of what business cases to compare it with in order to develop practical expectations of return.
As well: this doesn't take into account any increased Phytosphere sales: the PR only said that there is increased production and opportunities: it said nothing of actual sales agreements. So this could be a huge impact or stay the same. This unknown could more than double our annualized earnings expectations ,effectively doubling the PPS and driving the PE much higher due to outstanding performance.
It's these growth opportunities that keep us long, but Reasonable is right , we will fluctuate to market forces regardless, and there is opportunity there to either increase our positions of just take some cash out for bills or whatever..
MJNA long, but not stupid!
Yeah, I just got short squeezed... Sold at .112. Damnit
I had an order in at .112 when i saw .108 hit. Then saw the price jump and moved it to .114. Tempted to get in a sell, I think .1129 was peak.
kre8ive:
I never said I would sell to cash out.. I'm long and understand there will be minute fluctuation day in and day out that I might be able to catch a +/- .005 to .008 swing on any day.
However most days I'm not paying close enough attention, not just yet: volume and volatility are too low, its too easy to get short-squeezed.
I upped my expectations to mid/high 11s. Without news I will sell in the 11s this week and next looking for that peak value to sell and rebuy as soon as it drops a few 10ths of a penny.
I don't blindly follow charts: there will be no explosion without news. As long as we're between PE 12-16 we're reasonably priced, but once we start pushing 14-16 PE, we'll see more swings (it will bring in the MMs and will also need higher volatility/volume to sustain the higher PE) and ill be looking to sell/rebuy to increase my position when my strategic markers line up.
Those posters who think we going below never said we'd stay below: only test the support.
As well, those users are chart/technicals only, they don't use fundamental or behavioral financial concepts to interpret their charts do they are wrong 95% of the time.
I'm going to dig back into my books to refresh all my behavioral financial concepts.
Fiscal cliff rebound and new year buy-back after tax sell offs?
This is not overpriced until high 11s.
This is not underpriced until low 9s.
Without news that would suggest increasing or decreasing revenues.
I won't sell unless we hit .11 on no news. With news ill ride.
Or if we start seeing regular movement again : open up, drop quickly bounce and slow recover throughout the day. This pattern was obvious around the election/Q3.
When I see that pattern for 2 days in a row, if the third day has a strong gap up at opening, ill look to sell and then rebuy on the drop/recovery. Of course, depending on the value of any news/PR. If its fluff ill sell at a lower rise in PPS (.005 gap up) than if its real news (.008 to .01 : gap up + opening surge)
It is my opinion (and commonly accepted fundamental finance) that a PE below 12 indicates a lack of investor confidence, that a PE of 12-16 is very stable and above 16 shows alot of investor confidence (hype, enthusiasm, etc).
If taking Q3 revenues and annualizing them by multiplying it by 4, and considering 598M S/O, .10 is a PE of very low 12.
While a perfect 12 would be .0955, I think behavioral finance is giving us the little extra support to stay at/above .10. We humans like round numbers like 5 and 10, they are very easy to quickly calculate with.
There has been no bad news since MJNA failed to report Q3 on time, and that caused concern and justified the PE falling below 12. When they finally reported and became current, the confidence returned and price resumed .10+
I think we have VERY STRONG support at .10, more than any of us fathomed. I think Technicals do not take into account news cycles nor fundamental finance and ignore historical facts.
Considering Technicals alone, without Fundamentals and historical facts is a huge mistake. That's why some people say chart analysis is a waste on pennies: because they are ignoring historical facts and finance fundamentals. Technicals are valuable, when interpreted in context and not by themselves.
Because of behavioral and fundamental finance: sell off for taxes, chasing the lowest price to get their positions back.
90 for Annual, 45 for Quarterly.
We should see Q4 in 45 but a full comprehensive annual in 90
I can go to a bar, not drink, get pulled over and not be accused of being drunk.
I cannot go to a weed club, not smoke, get pulled over and not be accused of being stoned because I smell to high heaven!