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I expected a slow climb back up in pps but I thought it would be a little faster… especially since we've been having good news. I don't quite get it. Does the market not believe we'll get to 100M in revenues in 2015 (essentially the average estimate on yahoo finance)? I think we might get to 200M in 2016 (120M from Roche, 20M from Baxter). We should be moving higher soon.
Everything is taking longer than expected but I think it'll be a slow climb to $50 if we get to $250M in royalties (maybe by the end of 2016?). If by then it becomes clear that Frost was right when he said the market opportunity with the Pfizer collaborations is similar to Roche's, pps could be much higher. And if Peg and the other proprietary programs have value… My guess is that Kirk and Torley plan/hope to sell around then -- 2016/2017.
I think we are way undervalued here and the stock will drift higher, especially if mabthera sc is launched soon and we get another positive update from Roche regarding herceptin sc.
Unless their drugs become obsolete, a 50% share of the SC version in 2016 seems likely and would generate approximately $200 million in royalties from Roche and Baxter. Halo seems way undervalued here, even if you assign 0 value to their proprietary programs and their Pfizer collaborations.
And I'm hoping Roche will launch Mabthera SQ next week. It's taking longer than with Herceptin SQ. Can you think of any reasons for that? We could really use some good news!
I was just trying to understand why Fritz was so mad at Baxter. I don't see a conflict of interest between them, so I don't think Bax is trying to screw Halo.
I was surprised by Fritz's reaction. That's all.
Yes, that'sit. I've said it before and I'll say it again:
F#@K Baxter. Halo's ties with them of them, whatever is left, count as our rookie mistake. It was tuition for the school of hard knocks that will not have been wasted.
Good luck!
-Fritz
So, Halo's interests are aligned with Baxter's, right? Baxter should have no reason to slow things down on purpose.
Why do you think they are moving so slowly?
Is it just a misspelling?
David Roman - Goldman Sachs
And then the ramp in IG is that coming from the contribution from IQ or ramp up in production somewhere else?
Bob Hombach
It will primarily come from the IG business and the substitute business not from IQ, as we said the ramp up for this for IQ, ex-U.S. as well as U.S. will be minimal, but there will be some contribution, with respect to your question on Sanquin – Sanquin will not have an impact on the 2014 numbers.
David Roman - Goldman Sachs
Okay great. And…
"We launched in now 18 countries. We have some countries with shares up to around 30% to 40% already." sounds very impressive to me. Is there any chance Roche will get pressured into bringing it to the US?
In any case, since avg. estimate for 2015 is $115.14M in revenues on Yahoo, either Barclays is being outrageously conservative or it's a typo. I don't think the poster on IV fabricated it.
Why is Barclays modeling such low estimates? It's supposed to be a $2,9B ($145M in royalties) opportunity and they model $2,7 mn in 2015?! I was very surprised when I saw this. Shouldn't revenues ramp up much more quickly? Any thoughts?
Halozyme Therapeutics Inc.
SC MabThera Receives EU Approval
What’s New? Roche and Halozyme just announced that the subcutaneous (SC)
formulation of MabThera for the treatment of non-Hodgkin Lymphoma has been
approved in Europe. This is a positive for HALO and was largely expected following the
positive opinion and recommendation by the EU Committee for Medicinal Products for
Human Use (CHMP) in January.
SC MabThera significantly reduces administration time: This approval was based on
Phase III data from the SABRINA trial, which demonstrated equivalent efficacy and
safety between the previously-approved IV formulation of MabThera versus SC
MabThera. There were no issues with antibody titers. This SC formulation reduces the
administration time from approximately 2.5 hours with the IV formulation to only 5
minutes.
Royalties expected in a couple quarters: Roche will start launching SC MabThera in
different countries in Europe throughout 2014. We expect pricing for SC MabThera to
be comparable to MabThera (IV formulation) and estimate that HALO will receive a 5%
royalty from Roche. We believe meaningful royalties will take a couple quarters to kick
in as Roche works through pricing and reimbursement negotiations. We are currently
modeling $2.1mn in 2014 and $2.7mn in 2015.
What is the difference between research that is “closed to accrual” and research that is “terminated”?
“Closed to accrual” merely means that no additional subjects will be enrolled in the study. Study activity is ongoing and may include intervention or interaction with subjects, continued use of a drug or device, and/or data analysis. “Termination” means that ALL study activity has ceased – whether because the sponsor has decided that it may not continue, the investigator chooses not to continue the research, or the study activity and data analysis are complete.
http://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/institutional_review_board/guidelines_policies/guidelines/closed_accrual_termination.html
You're welcome. I have no idea how wealthy Greg Frost is but it seems pretty bullish to me that he spent $2,6M to buy XON stock $10 above IPO price. Or maybe not.
Actually, it was not $26M but $2,6M. It's still a significant purchase imo.
Thank you for elaborating. This all makes sense and your estimates seem realistic.
Congratulations to you and Fred for holding for 8 years! I've been long for 2.
Good luck to both of you!!!
ANAC
Does anybody own ANAC? I guess they are not in a "sexy" field but their stock has been performing very well. Upside may not be huge at this point.
Shouldn't royalties from Roche and Baxter be sufficient? Why have a financing now?
Can you elaborate on why you're so bullish about the insulin pipeline? I seem to remember you don't have high hopes for HTI-501, though Frost sounded pretty positive on the last couple of conference calls.
What do you make of aheadofcancer Ken Maudsley's stating he completed the trial on Oct. 4?
"Today was a big milestone in my treatment not only because I had another good looking MRI but also because I received the last shot of the ICT-107 vaccine. "
It seems to contradict the statement from the June 7 press release:
"The regimen is four induction doses after radiation and chemotherapy, and then maintenance doses until the patient relapses."
If Ken has not relapsed, why is he not getting more maintenance doses? Not sure if the maintenance doses were also supposed to be just a few.
On the other hand, if the trial completed on or around Oct. 4, results should be released in Jan/Feb, which matches the company estimates.
Is it unusual for data analysis to take 3 to 4 months? If not, can anybody provide some examples?
SNTA
Any comments on the PR from SNTA and the negative article from AF?