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very well said Johnny.....
We are on the same page mostly..........I'd just rather enjoy my friends getting in at these prices instead at 3 pennies where they can only buy one third the amount from the market maker,,,,,,,,,,,,,,i see this as an opportunity not as a hindrance since we all pretty much agree that we want to eventually sell our shares at double digit prices..............more awareness might bring this stock to .025 and closer to a comparative fair price...........nowhere near the speculation we expect if and when a deal goes thru.
I also want to recant something....I made a ten year estimate like yourself and called it at 3 or 4 dollars instead of nine..... I want to revise that estimate between 1 dollar and 2.50...................the true comparative is a malampaya comparative plus 20% more.......its 3.4 tcf.......with potential of 20 tcf and people are already counting it as 20 tcf guaranteed..............thats why i say overly optimistic........I could imagine that if a deal went through and things progressed within 3 years we could reach .50 cents based on succesful drilling and equity..... if 20 tcf was RECOVERABLE i would revise those estimates to a ten year plan with a stock price around six or seven bucks.
I do want to thank the MODERATORS of this board for revising all that info on the profile page.........I didnt notice it was updated and full of estimates and information til 2 days ago......that is a very good place to refer someone new to get basic info from and make their own assumptions for the future prices.
good luck to all
galoc evaluation e-mailed to me.....valuation is done by independent co. Concorde for Nido but is revealing and supportive of galoc output which fep/l benefits 2.27% of field.....enough to make a difference to the bottom line
Energy - Oil and Gas, Exploration and Production
Unlocking Galoc
Investment Perspective
Nido Petroleum (ASX: NDO) is a Philippines oil producer about to enjoy
a +150% increase in oil output when the Galoc Phase II project is
commissioned late November. We have revised our DCF based
valuation from $0.10 to $0.073/share as the exploration component is
reduced. However, the DCF for Galoc has increased to $0.069/share
which strengthens the core value of the company. With the stock trading
on P/CF of only 1.7x in 2014, we reiterate our positive view on NDO,
recommending a Buy.
Investment Highlights
? The September quarter’s oil liftings increased 10% to 97,315bbl,
even though average daily production from Galoc declined 23% to
3,511bopd (803bopd net) due to a 10 day scheduled shut-down.
Galoc production at the end of the period was 4,550bopd, which is
in line with the June quarter average, so natural decline from the
reservoir remains modest.
? Galoc Phase II flow testing has been very encouraging, with the 5H
well alone showing productive capacity of 8-12,000bopd and 6H
capable of 4-6,000bopd. This implies that the planned increase in
production from the current Phase I production level of around
4,500bopd to 12,000bopd combined, should be easily achieved.
Start-up is anticipated late November.
? Indonesian 3 well drilling program is set to commence in
November, and a farm-out of SC63 is being sought ahead of
drilling planned for the 200mmbbbl Baragatan oil prospect in 2014.
Valuation
Although we have reduced the exploration value of NDO, this does not
mean the company lacks exploration upside. The Baragatan oil prospect
could be worth $0.12/share in the success case but we risk this at 10%
or $0.012/share of the risked TP of $0.073/share.
johnny...
as far as your extreme optimism, when you say you think there is a good chance for a test well the first part of next year.......your practically saying within the next 6 months........and the climate is still stalemate despite the claims that " we still talk to cnooc".....
Pangilinan himself has stated that the "u.n. challenge has put this project in a freeze mode until its decision".....
Believe you me I wish and hope you are right but I cant make that assumption with the data available to me pointing to a contrary outcome/situation...
keep in mind there are only short windows when they can actually drill there............like 6 months out of the year if i remember correctly because of typhoons like the one that could have crushed us all last week.
I just got finished trying to convince my brazilian coworker to invest a lousy 2 grand on this stock............so when you say "cheerlead" the stock......I am doing that in the workplace but not on this site as all the info is already there on the profile........I dont think it would be useful to just look like we are pumping this stock on this website,,,,it would dilute recent and more relevant news like galoc expanding and any updates with the u.n. or china/phil hopefully making a deal.
good luck
fair question chicken
I am definitely a buyer here myself at below a penny but not at 2 pennies........if i buy just a lousy 2 grand worth of stock its already doubled with the market makers spreads of 100%......
Most of these guys are fully invested and probably disproportinately so when a speculitive stock like this should represent less than 10% of your portfolio...........I wouldnt be suprised if more than half this board has invested way beyond that high risk stake in their portfolio.
Past history has shown that there is no immediate return in this investment......not likely to swing trade it with such a thin float.........investors were better off buying Tesla motors at 30 bucks just 6 months ago.
Market prices??? they wont be fairly represented until institutional investors jump in instead of just this raggedy bunch of 100 investors all in all.........with the majority of those investors being inactive for the long haul.
i dont get excited when its up 100% on paper and i dont get dissapointed when its down 50%.........they are not of substance with such low volume.......a single investor should not dictate the price of this stock for the day.........one investor doesnt make a market.
do your own math and when speculation dissipates the real market will come forth and hopefully the true value will be realized as well as reflected in stock price.............MY GUESS is in like 2 or even 3 more years......doesnt mean the stock wont climb before that in stages of progress...........good luck to all.
we just passed a very good test for ifrastructure stability under the pressure of the eye of the storm hitting that sc14/galoc field..............the largest typhoon in recorded history.......tacloban wiped out.........and just minor damage to the rig.....very impressive indeed and bodes well for a long term reed project being stable despite the worst storms once every so often.
Damage to sc14 really had me worried because its the only revenue they have coming in...........and without that they would be selling pieces of the company for current loans as well as future loans.......they retain their equity worth....excellent news <long Term> ,,,,,,,,,,,being located at such a high target area with the worst of storms is NOT so good news but they have shown/proved to be more than prepared for the challenge.
galoc update
By E-Lodgement
TYPHOON HAIYAN - GALOC PRODUCTION RE-START
Highlights:
? Typhoon Haiyan passes directly through Galoc field.
? All personnel unharmed and no damage to infrastructure.
? Production resumed following full system inspection.
Otto Energy Limited (“Otto”) (ASX:OEL), as operator of the
producing Galoc oilfield joint venture offshore the Philippines,
provides the following update on Galoc operations in SC14C.
Super Typhoon Haiyan passed directly through the Galoc field
area through the night of 8th November and early hours of 9th
November. Sea states and wind speeds were the most severe
experienced at the Galoc field. All personnel are safe and
unharmed. A thorough inspection of both the FPSO and the
subsea infrastructure confirmed that only minor damage has
been sustained. Production from the field was suspended as a
precautionary measure on 8th November. Final system checks
have been performed this morning and production has
subsequently re-commenced.
All support vessels and crew were evacuated from the field
ahead of Typhoon Haiyan and were re-mobilised to the field
progressively through 10th November. Equipment installation
for the final stages of the Galoc Phase II project has recommenced.
Otto Energy Chief Executive Officer Gregor McNab said:
“The ferocity of Super Typhoon Haiyan has caused widespread devastation to many communities across the
Philippines. Our thoughts are with those who have lost so much and we are working with our community
partners to ensure Otto Energy provides much needed support.”
“I am particularly proud of our team who have worked through the exceptional challenges presented by
Super Typhoon Haiyan and the critical role played by our operations team from both Otto Energy and
Rubicon Offshore. The professionalism of these people combined with the integrity of the equipment has
allowed us to endure this major typhoon with no harm to our people or environment and minimal impact to
production. This underscores the value of our investment to upgrade the Rubicon Intrepid in early 2012.”
haiyan tracking
http://www.cyclocane.com/haiyan-storm-tracker/
images show this damn storm and pretty much they eye of this hurricane/typhoon went right over our investments.....
hopefully all is well.....I am anxious to hear from the companies with a comforting update.........I'm sure at least Nido will inform us of its galoc holding ...if i get an e-mail i'll post it here
maybe the phrase "unbearable" was a bit much.....
but you gotta admit that the timeline going on this thing.........is like twice as long or even longer than we ever expected before the chinese got this dispute/harassment going.
So what i meant to say is that the hurdles that keep popping up out of nowhere for fecof are getting extremely frustrating.......I have shown great tolerance in holding this stock.......i want to be proven right and rewarded handsomely for my patience.
after the gold Bust I was hoping for redemption in sc72 only to see it postponed indefinitely....
I can relate to your zero or heo outcome...........but it doesnt have to be a full risk to zero if they play their cards right........galoc could give us a floor and give us a fundamental play here at 1 penny besides the high reward speculation play we all got in at.
the shares that i want to buy are none of the shareholders from the board, ive repeatedly told people to hold or buy with me at 1 penny....I want to buy the marketmakers shares and he still has a ton of them...............the less he has as i chip away at them at reasonable prices<.01>, the faster this will shoot up if there ever is a compromise agreement on sc72 or even better the rare shot of china walking away from this dispute.
its a market makers job to sell more shares at a higher price and when he dumps his load it drop back down like a sack of ...... 2 thousand dollars worth of buying yesterday did not justify the market maker to make a spread between bid and ask with a 100% difference and having 200 shares hit 2 pennies??......
a conspiracy is hidden in secret.....this market maker simply does it in plain sight, simply because he can.......i'd rather you buy 3 times the amount at 1 penny than buy some at 3 cents....but by all means please do what makes you happy.... Yes the balance looks better today in my account too, but i know I cant cash it out with the price its at without it collapsing on me so I know it unreal for now...............one day though there will be enough interest in this stock where we can all cash out at good profits without the stock crashing on us before the execution is filled
I'll be looking at this weather aftermath in the morning...I want to see if Nido got affected too.....hopefully they will have clear skies ahead.
anyways , thanks for the kind words...............I enjoy being on this board with you all.............and i do know I sound BI Polar at times , its just the way i try to balance things out.........saftey <risk management> and optimism <long term payout only>
glta
being tested
I swear sometimes i feel like my will power and tolerance is being tested..........like my beliefe in an investment is trying to get the hell knocked out of me by the devil himself..............Ive been forced out of my confidence in a stock before and missed its run from 50 cents to 20 dollars....
now i find myself invested heavily in a stock thats almost seen a pan-asian war or even the brink of world war 3......and now its having the largest typhoon in recorded history go through it......what the hell
I hope our steadfastness in holding onto these shares will be greatly rewarded because the stress in owning this crap is almost unbearable.
fecof got 50 cents, BUT FEP.L got Shafted and we got less ownership.....you have selective memory
when fep.l got diluted we got less % of fep.l...we lost about 3% ownership in that stock so I DO THINK YOU WOULD MIND...
I hope it doesnt happen but we will know in three weeks how they handle this.......preferably a loan for that 15 mil would be better but theyve diluted just 2 years ago so I'm just putting it out there so nobody is too suprised if it does happen.
I'd like to see what that ship on the new york times article looks like after this storm.......those guys are in the most risk of them all.
glta
eom....it was fecof's shares at 50 cents each.....and i'm pretty sure that was a one shot deal........for 2 million dollar infusion into the company.....
I'm talking about fep.l getting diluted.TWO DIFFERENT THINGS.......we use to have more than 25%( i think it was 27%) ownership of fep.l.............but the more they get diluted.,.......the fewer % in fep.l we own.....we shouldnt be in denial of something thats already happened before.........
if we only had 18% of fep.l and fecof was trading at a penny would i still buy it?? Yes i would but i would HATE to see the huge reward i'm waiting for get smaller and smaller.....
by fep.l's own account they will pretty much have to give away 75% or more of the revenues to a" major" to get this project done.......after all they put the project cost at 5 billion........................if they drill the first succesful hole themselves they might be able to bargain for a better deal.
I always mention that lots can go wrong with these type of investments and i hope nobody blames me for the typhoon about to hit all our service areas including our revenue producing Galoc..........My prayers go out to these people and secondly to my investment which may suffer greatly with this very real risk of galoc being smashed...........not negative press since the damage should be evaluated within just a day or two<a week tops>.......hopefully we dodge a bullet.
johnny.......
why do you think I bought this for my nephews account.......hes only 5 years old..I dont have any kids yet..............I'd love to see where fecof is in 10 years and would love to see the little guy benefit from it.
I think your overly optimistic and piced it too high........and yet I would say it could be worth 3 to 4 dollars possibly if all goes right......
So why not buy a stock as upto as high as 5 cents if its going to 4 dollars in 10 years right??probably one of the best returns you'll ever see in the record books actually.
too amy hurdles right now and we might never get there if we dont ever drill sc72.....
with galoc we could be legitimately worth 3 pennies on real valuations in just a few years.....and hopefully another well unlike the dry one they hit in febuary can get us there sooner..... so buy at a penny to at least see some return is my strategy......even without sc72................
more dry wells will make this a going concern and it can go bust before they ever get to drill sc72..........unlikely for now but still a possibility............once again.thats why its at a penny................pxp has been crashing from its highs and nobody dares to make those comparison valuations anymore............Simply play it safe and buy fecof because its the Safer Bet on low valuations with a low stock price.
yes johnny its old news and thats why i posted the date on it....
I didnt know sc40 was a bust or about that big write down they had til i saw it yesterday...so to me its important because there financial situation simply isnt as good as i hoped for.......galoc will really help going forward but now they have to dig out of a hole again because of sc40 and they need to renegotiate the loan..........in less than 3 weeks......if you think this is not relevant you forget the last time we had our shares diluted....
Do i need more than 2.2 mil shares...no.......will i buy more under a penny........yes........will i be chasing this higher? you wish.....i was stupid enough to buy some at 4 cents on the last false runup and i wont do that ever again........if i would have waited for where it is today i would have had more than twice as many shares.
this old news that happened this year and will be seen on our financial statements for THIS YEAR..........so excuse me for sharing this when i dont remember anyone reposting this here.
theres tons of this info on forumenergyplc.com's own website...thats where i saw it when i was wondering how much cash this company has left......
and lastly, I will make a gentlemans bet that this will be under a penny again because i understand the nature of this stock.......funny thing is I was the one who caused it to double yesterday with the big help of the shifty market maker...........if you want to prove me wrong than put your money where your mouth is and buy some more....that will keep it above a penny..........nobody is doing that.
I still have my long term views of a multibagger here,,,,,,,,,,but this 15 mil loan due on november 24th might cause them to dilute again......I would love to hear from db7 and others who have watched this even longer than I and offer an opinion.
anyways, good luck
november 24th?? important date
<<< i hope we dont see more dilution after renegotiating on november 24>>> any thoughts??
Going Concern
On 15 February 2010, the company was awarded the Service Contract over the SC72 licence area. The first sub-phase Work Programme was
completed in March 2011. The second sub-phase Work Programme originally required a minimum spend commitment of US$6 million by 15 August
2013. On 9 January 2013, a two year extension was approved by the Philippines Department of Energy. All of this expenditure remains outstanding
as at 31 December 2012.
Pursuant to the Compromise Agreement reached between the company and Basic Energy Corporation (“Basic Energy”) on 21 June 2012, the company
is required to make payments totalling US$2 million to Basic Energy during 2013, of which US$1 million was outstanding as at 31 December 2012.
In addition to the above, the US$15 million three year loan facility agreement entered into between the group and Philex Mining Corporation
(the “Philex Loan Facility”) is due for repayment on 24 November 2013.
Existing cash resources and revenue generated from the Galoc oil field are expected to be sufficient to allow the group to meet the requirements
of these commitments and overheads until repayment of the Philex Loan Facility falls due on 24 November 2013. At this point, further funds will be
required to cover minimum spend requirements and overheads for the remainder of the 12 month going concern period.
Based on preliminary discussions with Philex Mining Corporation, and in view of the two year extension granted for the second sub-phase by the
Philippine Department of Energy, the Board anticipates that the terms of the Philex Loan Facility can be renegotiated which will provide sufficient
funds for a period of at least 12 months.
There can be no guarantee over the outcome of these negotiations and, as a consequence, there is a material uncertainty over the group’s ability
to raise additional finance, which casts doubt on the group’s ability to continue as a going concern. Further, the group may be unable to realise
its assets and discharge its liabilities in the normal course of business.
However, the Directors have a reasonable expectation that the company and the group as a whole have adequate resources to continue in operational
existence for the foreseeable future. For this reason, they continue to adopt the going concern basis in preparing the financial statements. The financial
statements do not include the adjustments that would result if the company was unable to continue as a going concern.
what about sc40??
by Rappler.com
Posted on 02/21/2013 3:34 PM | Updated 02/22/2013 9:01 AM
MANILA, Philippines - Forum Energy, a British oil and gas company controlled by Manuel V. Pangilinan-led Philex Petroleum Corp., booked a net loss in 2012 after it wrote down the value of one of its gas assets.
Forum Energy said it had a net loss of US$26.4 million in 2012, reversing its net profit of $3.42 million the previous year due to an impairment charge related to Service Contract (SC) 40, which covers the Libertad and Maya gas fields.
The company said estimated cash flows from SC40 declined markedly after a third-party assessment experienced a dry hole while drilling, which “significantly reduced the likelihood of a commercially viable hydrocarbon deposit in this region.”
“Whilst our net loss this year was significant, this predominantly related to our recognition of the need to revalue our non-core assets at SC40, following receipt of a new independent report on resource estimates," said Robin Nicholson, Forum Energy's Executive Chairman.
“We remain focused on our key asset, SC72, and on our goal of establishing the commerciality of the potential hydrocarbon resources within the SC72 concession,” he added.
Forum Energy has a 70% interest in SC72, which covers oil and gas-rich Reed Bank off Palawan in the South China Sea (also West Philippine Sea).
In 2012, tensions between the Philippines and China over the territory hampered the company’s drilling program. Due to its inability to deploy vessels to the area, the Department of Energy allowed the company to extend its second sub-phase work obligations estimated to cost over $50 million. – Rappler.com
johnny.........
it wont be I or anyone on this board who will get that price up to 5 cents and higher where you want it.......
I havent contradicted myself.......I am a buyer at a penny.......but not higher until progessive events justify it....
I actually waited 3 days for what is a rather small purchase, to be filled and so i notched it a bit higher....
I dont see others adding every month or so..........everyone seems maxxed out......so whos gonna keep it coming?
It will be a new enthusiastic whale of an investor who will bring us higher if china and the philipines make an agreement and the news flashes that day for that whale to pull the trigger for his large order.
I believe some people here will be selling at 5 cents that day but i will be holding for higher than 30 cents before i sell any....depends on the catalyst/news of the movement.
someone else bought shares today at .014.......so that means it was only 200 shares bought at 2 cents.......that shifty market maker is manipulating the price....its too weak to hold and will drop quickly maybe even before the week is over<2 days>.
i do find it interesting though that the majority of people / investors find it more justifyable to add to their position when a stock is trading 100% higher in a single day like they dont want to miss the boat before some skyrocket event........but 95% of investors lose $$ so they should be thinking off adding to their position when the stock price is closer to their revenues or some more justifyable benchmark reflecting a bargain or a floor.
I shouldnt be showing my pocker hand but i am just that sure of where this stock will be before progressive news, and this board isnt strong enough to move it higher ..........i havent contradicted myself here...not telling anyone to sell so I can secretly buy more.............i will add a bit every 4 to 6 weeks in small amounts <at a penny or lower>.....whatever our different views I hope you realize im honest about my motives and discussions.
anyways.........good luck
todays huge upswing is nothing to get excited about.......
HOW DO I KNOW??
i bought 200,000 shares of that 214,000 volume day
I got tired of my open order not being executed at .0093 and went ahead with the .011 ask...........i filled 45,000 in my nephews account and 155,ooo was executed <partial execution> in my own account.............soon after the market maker started pricing it out wack...completely out of wack...........that 14,000 shares at 2 pennies was his own doing no doubt...........and thus you had a ridiculous spread of a hundred 100% from bid to ask.....as if i would keep chasing it or something.......
this is why ive always welcomed investors to average down at 1 penny or lower and not to chase it.......because the market maker will BURN YOU.........add 100 thousand shares at a time rather than to place a million shares all at once and have the market maker price you out or charge you twice the amount before your open order is filled.
anyway........i now own 2.2m shares.......i know this will be under a penny again soon with the lack of progressive news here........i will not chase this.
I swear it was just me who was buying and the market maker priced me out...although my account looks good on paper trading at twice the amount it was yesterday I know there is no way to unload these shares today or tomorrow<if i wanted to> at that price and therefore its a facade...its an illusion ,,,,,its false......i welcome the lower prices so strong hands can add twice as much as what it is today.
good luck to all
rationalizing
with all this information to sort through, one thing that specifically gives me hope in favor of fep'l's sc72 coming into fruition one day, is the fact that the chineese would allow cnooc to even meet with fep.l/ forum in the first place.
China claiming all of the reed bank and sc72 contradicts with its actions of honoring the contract awarded by the philipines to forum energy. If the chineese actually believe and intend to keep all of sc72 all for themselves then why havent they come out and said forums contract is invalid and awarded under false pretenses by the philipines.
its like playing poker, bluffing and showing your hand, accidentally or intentionally.
either way it bolds good for fep.l and fecof that all this rhetoric does not include trying to invalidate forum energy's part in all of this in chinas eyes.........otherwise we'd be trading at less than half a penny right now.
just food for thought, and just my opinion
nice find eom
good work on filtering and finding recent news/statements.
words are not actions, but lets stay optimistic for the possibilities.
good luck to all
galoc update via email updates i receive from nido being that I am nido shareholder.
here is a link to an update of galoc which fep.l owns 2.275% of or of which fecof owns more than half of one percent in.....
this half of one percent actually adds up nicely when compared to todays low market cap for fecof.
http://ndo.live.irmau.com/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/1916-89300721/GalocPhaseIIUpdate
I only wish fecof or fep.l was as informative to its shareholders as nido <stock : nidof> is
this article isnt meant to hype up the investment play, but it does make investors more knowledgable in the fact that there is a large find/gas field in them thar waters, specifically fep.l<sc72> reed bank.........
so if there ever is a compromise/agreement with the current talks among companies as well as govts., and if they do bring multinationals like shell which pangilinan advized a year ago......then people will be ready to pull the trigger and know which company stock to buy when there is less risk and a green light on drilling.
nobody expects the philipines to be a david vs. goliath in a war with china and win.................if anything the philipines have a bodyguard willing to fight for them for the right price of course........its all about diplomacy, politics, and a smear campaign which that article is effectively giving china the bad image it deserves.
hopefully these type of articles will also persuade china to back off their bullying and reach a deal because the bad publicity will cost them more money than what they are trying to steal from sc72..,,,
remember the boycott on french wine over the afghan and iraq wars...........that really hurt france in the pocket.......china could ultimately suffer a similar fate if they keep pressing the issue of sc72 and therefore those articles help the ultimate goal.... a fair deal for the philipines and fep.l/fecof
exposure
i noticed that ny times web article that was also linked here a few posts earlier is now making the rounds as the yahoo news featured news links...............
gotta say that article was lengthy but well done and entertaining video......not sure if investors will see this as an investment opportunity or be shied away from it...............but any exposure is eventually good..........if china concedes phil sovereignty specifically for sc72 then that will get this stock going better than any deal pxp/fep.l/pxmff/fecof could get going for us.................
dont know if that will be any day soon since its in the courts now but i'll keep my fingers crossed.
no argument there.....cnooc is fecofs/philex's first choice, but without the govts blessings which include china conceding full philipine sovereignty on sc72 <royalties>,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,it simply wont happen.....and i havent heard either country budge.........yet..........i hope someone budges......cant imagine who will do so first.....and thats why we are still under a penny........
can they <fep.l/cnooc drill without govts o.k. to do so?? i think not
what other interested parties??
misleading statements.............if there was any credence he would or forum would/should release a statement on who those other interested parties or even one other party might be...................they actually Continue to hurt their reputation the way they did damage to their rep with the gold fiasco.................If there wasnt a near war over this gas field i would question its entire existence.
these idiots actually have bad p.r. instead of none at all.
furthermore if there is a good conclusion expected from "negotiations" then there wouldnt be a need to see other parties...it would be an agreement or "contract"......he either expects this to fail or all this TALK is hypothetical, with hypothetical outcomes but worded in a way where it simply misleads the public to the reality of it all.
i think the interest in forum lately is not represented by huge volume.....just takes 2 or 3 buyers really to get it moving higher.........Forum is simply a safer investment now financially speaking since even the g6h well was successful recently ontop of the g5 expansion.............the speculation on sc72 was always there, its not new in my opinion, they just try to keep the story fresh....
I could be wrong but a story by a columnist rehashing old news to make it relevant again with quotes by the energy secretary that "preliminary talks" still go on, is simply not a big enough story to have significance here.
an agreement on paper.......a partnership of sorts legally, even before the govts blessing, would move the stock higher though<short term>, before knowing if the govt blesses it or shoots it down due to political disagreements.
either way...........good luck
i'll try to convince my brother to buy some fecome for a longshot play........if thats what you mean about cheerleading then thats fine.........to do it on this board and hype this stock up would only diminish the stock boards worthiness as a source of real information.......would look more like a pump and dump site rather than the informative, factual sharing site its become.
small to micap stocks in this industry with extremely low p.e.'s
I just want to make my point why i think the cash flow coming into fep.l will be of huge importance, and the likely scenario that fep.l or its subsidiaries wont trade at high multiples of its cash flow either .....
please research vaalco energy<egy>.....they are an oil and gas company mainly exploring africa.....ive bought and sold this stock many times in the last 15 years...bought around 5 bucks and sold around 8 bucks..loves to trade around those price swings...
the thing is that since i can remember it trades at a low p.e.... its forward p.e. is 5 and if you minus its substantial cash holdings from its maketcap....it more like a 3.5 p.e. thats how its been with this 300 million market cap stock for as long as i can remember....... I dont think fep.l will or should be treated much differently when given p.e. valuations...... heres the link, please do your own research, and yes I would buy egy here as well for a low risk fundamental play that can profit 50% easily in just a few months......not really the high risk/reward fecof would be ,,,,,,,,,I still consider fecof high risk because when they drill they will be facing a possibility of what made nidof collapse from 18 cents to 2 cents a share when the well collapsed. Nidof is recovering though thanks to their big 22% holdings in galoc.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=EGY+Key+Statistics
the truth is already out there, nobody is hiding it.........but its still a spec play not only because drilling can go wrong but because of the unforseeable timeline as well.....
Personally i think it has a better than 50% chance it <sc 72>gets done but when it gets done i wont speculate.
if it makes you feel any better I told my philipino coworker to buy some today and he looked at me like I was nutso.................why should he invest in a penny stock? what makes me so smart about this being a huge upside investment and nobody else knows about it? If i can find stocks that will rise 1000% or more why arent I a millionaire yet?
these are all the looks and expressions i get from people when i advize them about this opportunity.
if you found someone very well off <millions> and told him to buy this........he wouldnt touch this stock simply because the volume is too thin........ imagine him buying or later selling a stock thats so thinly traded..........a rich guy can singlehandedly move this stock up 500% in one day just trying to buy into a position here.
furthermore......the wealthy would rather buy this stock after succesful drilling and around 25 cents and on its way to a dollar...........they dont like unneccessary risk.........
with stocks like tesla and netflix going thru the roof this year,,,,,,,,,why buy a risky penny stock when the peter lynch investment method is money in the bank the last 10 years and counting.
by the way.........peter lynch < who for me is the best advisor/investor ever to main streeet investors like us> spells it out in his book why small time investors have the upperhand in investing because we can get fully invested in a small cap or midcap stock before and on its way to a large cap company............multi millionaires and institutions simply dont have the same compelling feeling to chase a penny stock as we do.....
Real revenues and eventual profits will justify a higher stock price moreso than any p.r. firm can do for us....<thats the warren buffet method>........if fecof can reach a 100 million dollar market cap, there will be more institutional investors <mutual funds> ALLOWED to finally buy a piece of us..... since we are considered a micro cap and have to reach 100 million before heavy hitters come in..........Lastly , a company that is majority owned by a single player is less attractive as the voting rights mean less.
all things said.......youve never heard me say sell......or maybe i said sell some when it was 6 cents and the china conflict was still in its prime............
my swing play 8? years ago for its gold mine has turned into one helluva long term hold for me..............and i refuse to sell now when i'm so much closer to its payoff than i was before.............I just strongly disagree that its as close <2 months away> as you think it is.
would love to be wrong.......til then i'll add those cheapies here and there as its less of a gamble now than it was the last 8 years ive bought it..........please add some too.......it makes our hand stronger.....takes more shares away from the market maker who plays with us on its price.
its fruitless to try to be a p.r. firm by yourself johnny..........
if youre so upset about the prices and have no cash left to add to your conviction,,,,,,,then write or call fep.l and demand a new p.r. firm.....to think you can do it yourself,... or if we all get our cousins involved as new shareholders like its a pyramid scheme, would be barking up the wrong tree.
johnny boy..... If i dont get any cheapies, you wont get any cheapies either........I agree with what youve written other than the fact that fecof is more of a holding company and rightfully should be trading at a discount like most mutual funds that trade at a 30% discount to there nav/holdings......
did you ever think that maybe fep.l should come down closer to fecofs price?? you see everything just one way..your chosen way............this isnt burger king.
if fecof should be worth 50 cents in years to come if successful drilling happens.............what difference does it make to you if it trades at 1 penny or 7 pennies right now? do you actually think you will use the power of wishing/willing to make an event happen before its time?
whats so wrong about wanting to dollar cost average down now when there is absolutely no progress on sc72 <for the time being> and a stock price giving us less risk on the downside? I invited you to add to your holdings didnt i? You sound like someone who has totally run out of patience and wants it to go to 5 cents tomorrow just to get out now............if thats the case I say to you hold on for something bigger although the wait will test my patience too.
in your picture you look like a stockbroker........maybe you should be cool like one too..............dont point me out......i'm on your side , just not the chearleading part of it that you want for short term satisfaction/gain......i wanna see it up huge next year when i have even more shares.....the more of us longterm holders continue to hoard up the stock.the faster it will rise when real news comes out, and will be less volatile as we hold for 20 cents and higher.........not 5 cents like you.
p.s. like it or not its not coming soon unless soon is in about 1.5 years...........galoc will have us trading higher by then though ....
when others have bought into the euphoria of every spike in this stock.paying 3 to 4 cents..........i argued against it so they can buy 4 times as much at a penny........was I wrong about the outcomes then? was I wrong to tell my fellow shareholders on the board to buy this at a penny instead of 4 pennies? please tell your friends with their 5 grand a piece to jump in and buy some........it wont get the stock to 6 pennies like you want though.......time, revenue, and profits will do that....and in stages so will sc72 hopefully......
.P.S. counting those barrels of oil reminds me of the parable about counting your chickens before they hatch.
fundamentals
for fep.l gotten right off the website of forumenergyplc.com
key standout is that forum was at a 8 p.e. in 2011 when revenues were at their best...we'll get there again and better just through galoc.
Fundamentals
MORE
Content provided by Morningstar
Key Fundamentals
31-Dec-12
31-Dec-11
31-Dec-10
31-Dec-09
31-Dec-08
Revenue (£ m)
2.78
8.19
3.88
1.11
0.48
Pre-Tax (£ m)
-16.26
2.20
-0.36
-1.54
-3.00
EPS
-45.46p
6.69p
-0.83p
-4.64p
-10.63p
PE
-1.87
7.92
-70.48
-11.53
-2.40
johnny,,,,,,you are just as smart as the rest of us,,,,,,,,,,,,,,last time i did the math i left out a zero..lol
the math means that fecof is a good buy anywhere from here to .02...........if the stock eventually goes to 20 cents then its a great buy all the way upto 19 cents when its hindsight.
there is simply smaller risk and greater potential under a penny and thats why i am against cheerleading it higher before any real progress happens..........
its gotta suck when you look at your equity in your portfolio and its down 50% in fecof.............but its an opportunity to add as little as 300 bucks a month and bring your dollar cost average lower now that its trading closer to its eventual earnings from galoc.
not too long ago fep.l actually had positive earnings....in a couple of quarters we will be there again very soon and this will be easier to equate.
you said to do the math and equate the sc72 speculation.
that cant really be done............in theory the stock market price is its real price....when its not reflective of its cash holdings or equity a corporate raider will jump in and set things right..at least set it right for himself....
dont throw all your money into this but be extremely patient..add a little at a time around a penny or hopefully less and we will be drinking louie the 15th at the shareholder meeting 5 years from now.
anyhow,,,theres 12000 barrels of oil a day from galoc 5 and eventually another 10 to 12 from galoc 6h ...this is the math for revenues from just galoc 5 , thats saying 12k barrels at 100 dollars a barrel 1.2 million dollars in a day, If so, 1.2 million x 365 days = 438 million dollars per year. 2% of which, is $8760000.00.
how much of that revenue will be profit?? after original expenses of course ......
not long ago forum had earnings of 1 penny a share....it might take 3 quarters to pay off the expenses of galoc as well as those seismics done last year and we will see earnings anywhere between 1 to 4 cents a share is my GUESS.
jonno you seem new to the board, welcome
pxmff has much more ownership by far in fep.l <60 something % i believe> among other diversified holdings.............but its market cap does not justify that it will rise anywhere near the percentage increase that fecof will rise on any anouncement dealing with sc72 or fep.l in general.......
in otherwords...... if philex gets news that sc72 is going forward and is worth 2 billion in equity to them.....then philex could triple...
but fecof which is worth only 4.5 mil in market captoday and will profit 25% of anything fep.l is generating......so if there is a 2 billion market worth in fep.l.....fecof will be worth 500 mil in theory.......far outpacing any percentage increase pxmff will do.
that 1 penny fecof stock could be a 1 dollar stock in many years to come. ten thousand percent return 10,000%
this is the same story released 3 months ago except coming out of the energy secretary's mouth,,,,,
just a writer rehashing old news and trying to keep it relevant
this link was released in june...nothings changed
they say "hello, any change from the govt yet?" every 3 months......thats my interpretation of it
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn%3AFEP.L&display=discussion&action=detail&id=10661619
johnny...
preliminary talks is far from a partnership.......
comparing our share of equity in fep.l is one way of doing it but it simply doesnt hold true....the AIM market is still a laughable market.....its worse than the over the counter or bulletin board market when it comes to exposure....
Maybe we should really hope that fep.l gets on the nasdaq instead of this limited mickey mouse AIM market so we can get real exposure............it might trade the same prices in nasdaq,,,,maybe more,,,,,,,or even lower,
Fecof is like a mutual fund and mutual funds trade at a discount to their NAV...to their holdings.........fep.l has its administrative expense and fecof has itsown too.....so thru fecof we are paying two administrative expenses for our ownership in sc72.
Lastly, years ago I bough Nidof <which is a great buy today due to their large holdings of Galoc> when Nidof was at 13 cents and about to anounce their outcome of their drilling of their exploratory well........a well that would have tripled their price overnight.........that well collapsed or had water seepage and the stock crushed me....dropped 80%.......
So just because you get the green light to drill an exploratory well doesnt mean that its not speculation anymore or that the risk is finally gone..........lots can go wrong....
this stock at most is worth .015 with all its speculation and risk in the future..........should you pay a premium for the potential upside and ignore the risk??
thats a personal decision,,,,,,,,,,,,,as we hit certain stages............like when those seismics came in...we went higher.
why was this company sold so cheap to philex to begin with?? didnt they have the same seismics? didnt they have two exploratory wells too? didnt they have gold fields too that were a sham? not much talk or comparison to that is there?
p.s. I agree with db7, we dont need cheerleaders.....they come across as pump and dumpsters....we need strong investors which i believe most of us are,... to hold and sit on these shares for a price that will skyrocket if sc72 ever gets done...real news/revenues and a strong hand will get us there, thats a guarantee.
if we get screwed it will be in the form of dilution because we are slowly running out of cash with the high burn rate.......we should be able to borrow though through our equity in fep.l being worth more everyday and with better cash flow coming into fep.l
to do a buyout under certain conditions<today> would raise a flag with canadian securities regulators.......... although .20 cents would look generous today.......if they later show that the purchase was done by withholding certain information of partnership deal anouncements and sizable wells.....shareholder lawsuits could recover damages.
when/if the deal is anounced it should be worldwide news because of the attention the conflict has gotten......
whenever they mention that fep.l is the owner of sc72 they usually mention that philex owns the majority of fep.l and through subsidiaries such as fecof....thats when we will get mentioned, when it counts and when there are many interested readers.
we might get screwed from dilution as the burn rate is vanishing our cash thru overcharged administrative and board member expenses,,,,,,,,this is my fear.....
I dont think they will try to screw us with an obvious buyout while they have inside information of the future exploratory wells etc.....
thanks for the reply,
not sure why you think we could get bought out at .20 or how that could all play out like that. I too distrust the philex board sitting in our fecof seats doing the right thing for us instead of themselves.
I am happy that this board has been very civil with eachother....has come a long way from the name calling we saw 3 years ago...........would love to see you all at a shareholders meeting one day if we become a malampaya type company.
Ive said enough on this board today and want to go on record that this will be below a penny again within a week or less.....maybe even by the end of today.....dollar cost down when its low, no reason to chase this "preliminary"............i'll chirp in about 2 weeks if i can stay away that long,,,,,,,,,
good luck