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Andy R.
I cannot begin to tell you how objectionable your post was. Not because of anti-Bush content, but because of what can be fairly termed as sounding like something coming out of 1930's and 40's Germany and its National Socialist party.
Not gonna write a treatise on why I think AAPL could go to mid 70's.
Just look at the 24 month chart, think about this quarter, and propose your own reasons.
Then tell us at what level you will buy additional shares. I won't till the 70's, unless something big happens. I have done well buying mid-year or later and selling in January, and will probably persist in that till it slaps me in face. Will probably do a back to school quarter trade also. The difference this year (as compared to 2006) is that I will stubbornly hold on to a core position no matter what happens.
vPod generic for any iPod that can play videos. I think only fools would buy the current ones. I think sane consumers would wait for one with a screen size equal to the one demo'd on the iPhone. Apple will deliver one, I predict, but it won't save this quarter.
We'll have to wait and see what the product introductions are, but for the most part I predict those will not have much of an impact on revs, earnings or estimates until the quarter after this one. Same goes for the much discussed impact of CS3 on the sales of Mac Pro Towers.
Part of why share in 70's.
While something is printing here
How many video capable iPods will be bought before a vPod with a screen similar to the iPhone's is released?
Answer, fewer than would have been sold before the iPhone was demo'd.
Question 2: Will availability and sales of AppleTV replace the revenue lost via deferred vPod purchases?
Answer - I dunno.
Was on a jury yesterday
Heading to work in a few
stay tuned tonight.
Bootz: I'm not much given to monolithic conspiracy theories myself but AAPL is behaving "oddly" no matter how you slice it.
Bootz, go look at a one year chart and longer out. Apple is behaving pretty normally as far as I can tell.
I think Apple will soar, but it is a matter of when. I am down to a reasonable amount of core shares and will hold those. I would not be surprised if there were buying opps in the low to mid 70's.
I'll tell ya why later.
Shakeups in US Attorneys
Read a Krugman piece in the NY Times yesterday that suggested the multiple shake-ups may have to do with early work being done on the behavior of Bush appointees. Krugman speculated that we may be in for a two-year rolling constitutional crises
Got stopped out of most of AAPL yesterday.
Going to the courthouse for jury duty this morning.
Gold acting ok
IPhone: The mediocre phone that will change the world
More than a week after Steve Jobs’ blockbuster iPhone announcement, longtime industry observers and analysts are still furiously debating iPhone’s impact. And the first issue the analysts are wrestling with is: Just what the heck is an iPhone, anyway?
Before commenting on its potential success, four analysts I spoke with first struggled to define exactly what an iPhone is.
More at:
http://www.macworld.com/news/2007/01/19/iphonemediocre/index.php
Yofal,
I don't do much video stuff. Don't own a HD TV, don't even own a DVD player with the exception of what comes with the 20" iMac. Don't hardly ever use the VCR to record anything. Video Luddite here, I guess.
I did buy an episode of NCIS this year, the season premiere. Kathy was in the air when it showed and I neglected to record it for her. Buying it from iTunes was easy, watching it on the iMac was acceptable.
When the prices for HD TVs come down a bit, I am going to buy one and get a Apple TV. I don't know how much success it will have, I suspect it will have a great deal of success. Apple needs more movie content and deals for new video search capabilities (youtube). It is certainly more immediate than the iPhone.
Wonder when news will leak out of the East on the Apple TV build rate.
I need to get me
One of those little shuffles for to listen to a couple of podcasts a week. Probably could find more. I am kind of partial to listening to Jim Puplava's Saturday Finacial Sense show.
What do ya'll think of this article?
http://www.macobserver.com/columns/hiddendimensions/2007/01/18.1.shtml
Good iPhone article
I think. Tell me what you think.
http://tinyurl.com/2lca6t
One more buy this morning at 88.96 and I think I am done for now. eom.
Someone's avatar from a discussion board
Please lose your political signature photo. Thanks. Ron. eom
What was I waiting for
Well, I have no confidence in being able to predict bottoms or tops, so I just try to make a little money along the way. I guess I thought I might be able to make a little by buying some here and selling it at some future point. The ones I bought this morning are not part of what I am now calling my core position
Was unable to prevent buying :), added small amount at 90.07. EOM.
AAPL in the 80's.
(Note to self) Keep that finger off the buy buttons for now
I think it was Gene Munster who made that "worth of Jobs" estimate - believe I read that somewhere today.
Coreguy, guidance
Yep, my trading shares were all gone this morning. Sometimes it almost seems as sure as the sun rising, this January AAPL dance. Exact steps and timing is unsure, but if you get on the dance floor soon enough and then get off it early enough - you can go home feeling good about your date .
Fin <Apple didn't stomp on fantasy numbers that the analysts generated gratuitously.>
They stomped all over analyst estimates. Clobbered them. Hit them outta the park.
Apple beat the average revenue estimate by over 600 million dollars (7.1 billion v. 6.47 billion) They beat the average EPS estimates by 46% ($0.36).
Hell, Apple clobber the highest estimates among the universe of 21 or so analysts reported on Yahoo.
Apple guidance was low. It always is. AAPL investors who have been doing AAPL for awhile have various ways of dealing with that.
If analyst estimates for the rest of the FY do not change, it seems like price targets will need to be adjusted by .36 (1.14-.78) times whatever PE one wants to assign - I am assuming somewhere between 30 and 40 or upward movement of somewhere between 10 and 15 bucks per share.
Does that sound right?
Nothing left but the waiting
and predicting
Revenues - 7.6 billion
Earnings - .92
strictly SWAG
baldrick, long and what??
I am a lot less long than I was a couple of days after the keynote. Down to what I am calling a core position now....you know, the kind that if Apple blows out earnings and runs I have enough to feel good about that, but if Apple drops post-earnings, I won't feel too bad about it.
Oh, and dumped that INTC starter position first thing this morning. Amazing how cutting losses as quickly as possible can improve annual performance . Have been adding some gold miners - up to 15% stake there now.
There are indicators that it could be a blow-out quarter. Hope we're reading the tea leaves right
Bootz: <Got three trading blocks that I've actually got to trade at some point and tomorrow or Thursday seems as good a time as any, if not better than most.>
You make any moves yet?
Apple TV is currently listed as the top seller at the Apple online store. Airport Extreme Base Station is number 7, if I counted correctly.
Maybe we'll hear something about the number of orders this afternoon. If I had a high-def TV, I would order one, but I don't have one and will not buy one yet - more price dippage is needed to entice me .
Sold what AAPL I intend to sell
at 96.52 and 96.22. Makes for a more relaxing day off (second and probably last snow day)
Weather will allow me to be around for the earnings extravaganza tomorrow. The college I work at will be closed again tomorrow.
Wonder what tomorrow will bring - if the market day brings another $2-3 bucks to AAPL, I will likely sell some. Making money is fun. 2006 was lots of fun.
Anyone gonna be paying close attention to Intel for any AAPL clues?
Disclosure, opened a small INTC position this morning.
Well Bootz-person-san
I doubled my AAPL shares this am at 95.88. May be a fool's game, but those shares are mostly for an earnings play. Still gotta a a lot of cash - but tentative plans are to sell those AAPL shares and to be ready to rotate into precious metals within 2-4 weeks.
Oil seems like it will probably be a buy in sometime before too long - I'm thinking the mid-40's or so for an initial step back into that sector.
OT: if the USA really wants to
screw Iran and Venezuela, it would be a good time to release a flood of oil from the SPR .
look dilly, I just posted something from their website. If you wanna get a hard-on about something, get it for their website, got it .
I don't give a crap and won't buy it anyway. You will and you'll dick around with it for a couple of years insisting that Apple's product is over-priced and piece of crap, and then - just like the Airport you finally bought, you'll be a convert all over again.
That's my prediction
Dilly, from the link posted here
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=16228039
From the weblink:
* Microsoft® Windows® XP
* Minimum Intel® Pentium® 500 MHz processor, 128 MB memory, and 20 MB free disk space on at least one PC
* 2.4GHz wireless adapter or Ethernet adapter with cable for a least one computer
* Broadband Internet service (recommended)
Requires Windows according to specs. Rules it out for me. eom.
New to Mac stats
No need to survey every buyer - think sampling techniques and surveys of samples of Mac buyers
Market for high end phones ~ 5%...
And growing, I have read over the past week.
Here is the thing about the iPhone
I hate fingerprints and smudges on screens. I have a co-worker who often puts his finger(s) on my computer monitor to point something out. I automatically give him a pointing device (pencil or something) whenever he comes over to my desk.
Watching the keynote, there were some close-ups of Steve's finger grease on the screen of the iPhone he was using. I hate that *grin*
There, that is my only objection to date.