I am updating my staus.
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CNAM - Well as a long so I do hope so - I was thinking that their receivables is around 90 days. Lets say it's Q4 they do $100M revenue - then they are going to need muchos cash. I was thinking that $10M could be low - Lets hope they pay their suppliers after their clients have paid.
rich
SKBI - given the margins of vaccines are second only to popcorn it looks like management are being cautious on this matter.
I think vaccines will help their margin and make the cash flow - it seems to be cash neutral at the moment as the cash the company generates is being used to stock more inventory etc as company grows.
rich
CNAM, Trader - yeah if they take their time this is a cash machine. I was wondering, aloud, that if the ramp up was swift and given the low margin of the goods that they might need even more cash? Just a thought.
rich
CNAM - the big order has most impact on Q4 - when apparently it's up to full capacity. Q1 will have almost none of the big order Q2 & Q3 steps up a bit.
I suspect everyone is stepping away until they can see the ramp up.
Possible Upsides:
1) Margin increase
2) Futher orders or ramp up earlier than the big order
3) Wanting to build 2nd processor - which would also suggest that ramp up occurring
Possible Downside
1) Might need more working capital for this low margin business - though this imples ramp up
rich
CELM - +9% currently 1.5x avg vol.
Goes to show that the stock of a growing business with clean balance sheet, receivables (I think) of 1 month, Just in time inventory, and in engineering sector can be in demand with forward P/E of 10.
Surely, this stock must be the definition of overbought? Any TA comment? Must look like a cliff face?
rich
LLEN - RedChip Conference Summary
- Ignoring the repeated stuff.
- Yunnan Good location c.f. Coal NE mines are older ("Ching Dynasty Mines" up to 100 years old), Yunnan younger (10 - 15 years), shallower and so safer.
- Selecting Younger mines to develop and increase capacity
- Using rail spurs allows them to operate cheaper than trucks
HSC Coking Sale
- They considered Zone lin was more efficient and give better return on $ for management time
Q/A
Q - When will shares from oct/ Nov be registered
A - Unrestricted early May to Early June and filed S1 - aiming early July
[ ED might be dip in summer?]
Q Will they make earnings after recent sale
A Yes [Ed they are well ahead of last years estimates so difficult to say No] Wanted to do larger higher margin and more acquisition and wanted to know what the return on the $ was. HSC was making profit but not as much as they wanted and took more time than others. Opportunity was better to be
- Acquisition "relatively soon" - similar time frame as last year [ED last year July to Oct acquisitions] - aiming to complete by the fall
Q Dispose any more businesses
A No intention. Unless great offer. If they can have better use of capital they would.
Q Margins on coking last quarter not as good
A Implied might have well some of the reason why they sold the HSC business.
Q Are you going to be bought out
A We don't want to we want to grow and consolidate the business
rich
LLEN - RedChip Conference Summary
- Ignoring the repeated stuff.
- Yunnan Good location c.f. Coal NE mines are older ("Ching Dynasty Mines" up to 100 years old), Yunnan younger (10 - 15 years), shallower and so safer.
- Selecting Younger mines to develop and increase capacity
- Using rail spurs allows them to operate cheaper than trucks
HSC Coking Sale
- They considered Zone lin was more efficient and give better return on $ for management time
Q/A
Q - When will shares from oct/ Nov be registered
A - Unrestricted early May to Early June and filed S1 - aiming early July
[ ED might be dip in summer?]
Q Will they make earnings after recent sale
A Yes [Ed they are well ahead of last years estimates so difficult to say No] Wanted to do larger higher margin and more acquisition and wanted to know what the return on the $ was. HSC was making profit but not as much as they wanted and took more time than others. Opportunity was better to be
- Acquisition "relatively soon" - similar time frame as last year [ED last year July to Oct acquisitions] - aiming to complete by the fall
Q Dispose any more businesses
A No intention. Unless great offer. If they can have better use of capital they would.
Q Margins on coking last quarter not as good
A Implied might have well some of the reason why they sold the HSC business.
Q Are you going to be bought out
A We don't want to we want to grow and consolidate the business
rich
China Stimulus Plan Report Is Doubted by Economists
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amy3JSzhu1Kw&pos=5
They have spent the first 4 months tightening money supply and getting banks prepared for loan losses. They might redistribute money to certain sectors - agricultural and Western Provinces?
I don't see why they would want to put more money into the system now?
rich
surprise! they have 4 more tanks at their new plant
See, if you had trusted us you'd have know that already
rich
Why did you think the margins will be better, 10% I think you said, for local sourced scrap metal? I like the idea that they should be higher margin, I would, but has management said anything along those lines? Or is this intuition?
rich
LPIH @ red chipvirtual conference now- hopefully. I say hopefully as I can hear Crane saying words to the effect of "Hey I can't the video going etc"
rich
CNYD - It's a great long term hold. But investors only really take note in the next 6 months not projects coming on line in 2012. That said they have projects coming open this year and tourism is going to grow strongly for the foreceable future.
rich
SSE Closed -2% (2,908)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^SSEC
rich
CD: Realty sector cooling off
Hall's viewpoint was echoed by Michael Wu, a director in Fitch's Asia-Pacific corporate team.
"The lending curb on second or additional residential property purchases will reduce demand from investors and speculators who may find it more difficult to finance their purchases. But demand from end-users will remain strong, particularly in second and third-tier cities, underpinned by China's continued urbanization and income growth," Wu said.
As property developers, especially those listed ones, remain awash with money from last year's sales boom, they are unlikely to cut prices in the short term," said Pan Shiyi, chairman of SOHO China. He estimated that around 70 percent of listed property developers have more than 10 billion yuan on hand, an amount that he said could allow these companies to operate for two to three years in a bearish market.
In a recent report, Fitch Ratings said the central government's recent real estate policies are expected to moderately cool market sentiment. However, the agency expects a limited impact on the existing rating levels of property developers, given their relatively strong balance sheets.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-04/27/content_9778831.htm
Hmmm.. People seeing underlying demand & Sounds like builders will weather the storm.
rich
BSPM / CSKI - had a banning and response from their company..
Short seller says banned...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/189692-government-wises-up-to-china-sky-one-places-ban-on-products
CSKI re-jigg advertising and keep selling as far as I can see...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Sky-One-Medical-prnews-3563220157.html?x=0&.v=93
rich
BSPM: new poster: yes he did
IR was the same as well. They didn't know about it either and were going to talk to Company.
They couldn't have said otherwise could they?
rich
Ah, well, I was just trying to come up with a worse case revenue / net income. So, It wasn't a suggested estimate for Q1. It's more a reaction to the market's treating this stock poorly - I'm looking at the minimum numbers and working from there.
So, taking your points
1) Embedded advertising - thank you I did not notice that previously, or rather, I read it but it didn't register with me. So, this is advertising products in the programming. Cool new revenue stream. I should add this into my minimum.
2) Rate Increase - I agree they most likely have revenue increase - I just wasn't factoring it in. Possibly I should put in 10%. Would seem strange not increment it given it's so cheap anyway.
3) Margin - That's good I will factor in when I see it though
4) Direct sales - sounds good again but will react to upcoming figures.
Thanks pbc, I'll be able to improve my low-ball estimates.
rich
Thanks, that's very clear. The O/S Was the best part of 33M and I was missing the Original Owners 2 Million.
Any disenters?
rich
Minimum Revenues: Assuming that Bus numbers is proportional to Revenues
Bus numbers from the 10-K
April 2010 21,500 [1]
Dec 2008 15,260
June 2009 16,000
Dec 2009 20,161
So, for Q1 and Q2 this year we have minimum of 34% more buses than last year. If I say income is going to be
2009 + Bus increase
Q1 + 30% = 9,691,500
Q2 + 34% = 11,096,540
Q3 + 20% = 13,996,800
Q4 + 07% = 15,622,000
Which take us to around $50M Net Income. Without any additional buses. The Starr agreement had clause that they would do $55M Net Income and I can see that they are close with the number of buses they have now.
rich
[1] http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-MediaExpress-Holdings-bw-1578197139.html?x=0&.v=1
Calculating outstanding....
I know Fernando and Adam are using 39.5 Million. Just seeing what I'm missing. I do appologise as I'm sure we've been here before - I just can't find the answer.
From 10-K in mid march they had 32M
Star Preferred converted to 3M
Warrants 1.5M
Earn Out bounus 1M
Total (so far) 37.5. Where the 2M I'm missing?
rich
Stimulus Plan 2: Economists React with doubt
April 26 (Bloomberg) -- China’s rebound makes it unlikely the government will duplicate the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus adopted during the crisis, economists said after a newspaper reported such a package may be enacted.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-26/china-stimulus-plan-report-is-doubted-by-economists-update1-.html
rich
Well I hope so, but as long as company gets the earnings in I'll be patient. Course I don't own 6 figure sum in it
rich
1/4 of the loans of listed China-banks property-related [1]
If Chanos is right about his 60% of the Chinese economy being construction I was expecting a high percentage of property loans - instead we have 24% ish. I would expect higher percentages of property loans in a developing country anyway.
Perhaps there are none-listed banks pouring money into construction? Pass, no idea. All I can say is I don't find these numbers concerning.
If anyone has input on the % of property loans banks give in other countries I'm all ears. Hmm... excepting this is from China Daily - which, I believe, is mouth piece of PRC.
rich
[1] http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-04/21/content_9758760.htm
Pollution: There was a posting, think justin, on China Growth stocks and he discussed pollution that he encountered. He described the "mist" as people called it.
During Olymics rather than China facing up to it and find ways of doing more filtering and zoneing heavy industry away from the cities they went for the illusion of shutting plants down for the duration and switching them back on again after the show - when the pollution came back to same levels seen previously.
Obviously, here we have the same plan swinging into action. Jim Rogers - China bull No1 lives in Singapore - enough said
Jo, or anyone, what's your take on the fuel VAT tax? I hadn't been thinking about it because they were threatening to move most of their operations to speciality chemicals anyway.
rich
Well, it can only be considered as a positive - I would have thought the distances involved made it a mild, if any, effect.
If someone knew the logistics / suppliers in the area we could get a more educated guess.
rich
NEP oil price is set using the cinta crude price on the Singapore exchange; a transparent capitalist solution - no underhand shinanigan price fixing going on here.
rich
So basically, the cash flow is rubbish, as per most companies dealing with Chinese hospitals. otherwise it's interesting..
rich
One potential issue lurking for me is the question of when the Chinese government may decide they'd like to own CKGT.
Absolutely no way. The affect of nationalisation or other grabbing methods leads to investor flight. It would destroy the stock market as assuredly as it did when Argentina got frisky or Venezualia got heavy handed. Nationalisation, in whatever manner, would be a catlcalismic event - their leaders are too savey to make that mistake.
The chinese are pro-business. Their main problem is they are not fair with multinationals and that will have to change sooner or later. They need strong companies that can punch their weight on an International stage. Most state funded companies are inefficently run relying on soft loans from banks. While that's great for employment they can't take on multinationals - China needs efficient non-state companies to take on the world.
Although there are some state-owned companies that do well (NEP comes to mind...)
NEP is not state owned perhaps you are thinking of CEO?
NEP is the first Chinese non-state-owned oil company trading on the NYSE Amex[1]
rich
[1] http://www.cnepetroleum.com/
Yup, no impact there's a provice between CCGY, in Fujian, and Shanghai - Zhegiang. Goes to show don't own any industrial firms around world events in China.
Course, they could try and clear up the environment? Nah, what was I thinking.
rich
Hmm... I was going to pick those sentences out but I didn't know how much steel becomes stainless steel?
In Europe and America, three-quarters of stainless steel is made from scrap
"Less than 20 percent of steel in China is currently made from scrap metal,
rich
Cronimet Group inaugurates steel recycling plant in Shanghai
Validates the space, in my book.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-04/24/content_9770637.htmd
rich
China stocks may rally 25% on tightening end, Goldman says
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-04/24/content_9771119.htm
rich
LLEN is on naked short list [1]
Neared $15 intraday and now it's $10 and change region. EPS up over 100% Y/Y and FY ending April should be in the $1.10 region with the real possiblity of new deals - I'm not sure how much the coking mine made towards earnings (could look at this today) but they seem confident about new deals at last presentation. They have north of $20 M in cash once mine purchase closes.
rich
[1] http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=regshothreshold
LLEN is on naked short list [1]
Neared $15 intraday and now it's $10 and change region. EPS up over 100% Y/Y and FY ending April should be in the $1.10 region with the real possiblity of new deals - I'm not sure how much the coking mine made towards earnings (could look at this today) but they seem confident about new deals at last presentation. They have north of $20 M in cash once mine purchase closes.
rich
[1] http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=regshothreshold
LLEN Yeah, but Winter was sooooooo cold for which I blame the lack of sunspots. At least LLEN is doing something about these cold winters and, umm, warm summers - stick another tonne in the boiler please!
rich
LLEN - Disposal makes sense to me.
LLEN original model was to develop new mines but then they figured out they could buy them easier. Then they figured out that what they need to do is find mines that need upgrading - offer them a token amount of money, $1M say, but promise to double / triple the capacity of the mine and do all the safety etc.
If you look at Hon Shen on the redchip link [1] you can see it's the only one that either wasn't or didn't need to be upgraded. They will make better returns from someone who has to upgrade and needs capital and help.
$6 M can be used to get a couple of mines and upgrade them. I'm assuming that they have targets. At the last presentation I saw, a month ago, they seemed confident about having a pipeline of targets.
LLEN is presenting today so they might have some additional colour[2].
rich
[1] http://www.redchip.com/visibility/investor.asp?symbol=LLEN
[2] http://www.redchip.com/visibility/conferencePages/newyorkmar2010/conferenceMain.asp?page=presenterlist
Uplisting can only take a week sometimes - other times in can take months. In the end we are on the outside of the negotiation and won't have a clue if it's quick or slow.
LLEN took months. SCOK took like a week. BSPM recently upgraded - it had it's paper work filled out months ago. The final criteria was neededing bid support above $4 which it got a couple of weeks ago and now it's uplisted.
I think sometimes they ask additional questions and LPIH will have to field them. So there can be some filing ping-pong.
It's fair to say the process is opaque - LPIH said at the last CC that they have their paperwork in. However, no time frame was given or is available to my knowledge. All we can say is that LPIH, on the face of it, passes the AMEX criteria.
Here's an article on the subject...
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10725448/1/how-an-uplisting-works.html
rich
Presentations sounds good idea - take 5
BFAR
http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=6851279
CCGY
http://www.chinacleanenergyinc.com/images/PDF/02-27-2009%20CCGY%20Corporate%20Presentation%20Final.ppt#295,1,Slide%201
CNYD
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1091325/000121390010000982/f8k031510ex99i_chinayida.htm
CHGY
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1335137/000114420410012626/v176914_ex99-1.htm
LLEN
http://www.lnlinternational.com/files/LL_PPT_february_2010.V3.ppt
rich
Yes, that's right no one can confirm. I suspect that May 15th is simply the last day they have - without an extention or threatening to delist.
rich