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the government has no mercy in that department. let them hope for years.
frankly they had some hope when there was more pending litigation... before lawsuits were lost.
certainly possible. spspa conversion could wipe them that low when maximizing the gov't interest.
nope, it is back to the en banc appeals court which is the only court that ruled favorably for us. it originally ruled that APA law makes the NWS illegal.
The damages model going to trial is a joke. The collins case is more interesting. But admin reform is even more interesting
I do not
You will learn the difference between 15 years of no change and 1 year of change
Not sure how that relates
fhfa is a political appointee. the president could fire whomever is in there and replace them with someone who would.
fhfa is not an independent agency according to scotus.
which makes the whole spspa a related party transaction frankly.
weird finance.
Does not matter. Can be extended. You must be a common shareholder to be asking questions that dont matter. Should be asking anout spspa conversion which effectively wipes your interests not completely but nearly as much. Good luck learning about this. The warrants may be 7b shares of dilution. The spspa would be like 430b shares. Maybe less. Maybe more. Turns the lights out on common shares.
Ive been saying for a long time commons have no security. People who own them when they can make 20x in jps just are not paying attention and are too busy doing who knows what
Mostly so far a relief rally from 6 months of largest stakeholder dumpage
Jps are gold. Common is a gamble without more upside. A fools bet if you will
You betcha. I know things
Well for your common shares it is most likely never.
Bernstein. It is going to happen well before your orange man
the chance for them to actually make some money will always be sell their commons and buy preferred --- until preferred goes up too much. commons have no security.
Jared seems like he does not understand capital structure or restructuring
None of them at present. They are still at a steep discount. But you are confusing price and value. Right now you can pay a low price for them and secure good value — face value
This concept might be lost on you if you cannot tell the difference. Also, if you own common shares you might not be able to learn the difference in time. Selection bias.
Smarter folks own jps
Good start. Jps are worth face. Commons are a guess and have zero security
— Fanniegate Hero (@DoNotLose) June 13, 2023
— Fanniegate Hero (@DoNotLose) June 13, 2023
Worth $300k when this is over.
If you don’t understand capital structure or retained earnings you are going to have a bad time. Getting late.
Yep. Looks good
Bad ratio. Worth $350k when this ends
Poor math
Lots of good insights in here. Lots of wrong conclusions. Lots of wrong understandings.
The govt stopped stealing from the companies in 2019 but the way they did it and continued in 2021 kind of drowns common shareholders aspirations for having any material value come out of this.
Given that I have tried my best to explain how this unfolds to you for years — you are free to choose your own, now informed, adventure.
Considering my understanding that you cut back on your commons significantly and found luck elsewhere instead, I recommend against buying more commons and instead recommend 20:1 preferreds. Good luck with whatever you do. It would be nice to see you rich.
Yes. The companies are armed and ready and chomping at the bit to be able to exit conservatorship. Dont forget that their leadership team can get paid more outside of conservatorship. Incentives are aligned. Fhfa has been working hard since 2019 to prepare them to exit conservatorship. So that is 3+years of preparing them and getting them ready.
But spspa liq pref plus warrants prevent existing common shares from participating in any upside because the spspa will have to take a haircut. Commons have no dilution protection which is relevant in a restructuring and so they are technically worthless.
Jps — now that is security outside of receivership those rights get made whole by doing nothing.
It is pretty clear commons get screwed at this point in my view and would be a surprise if they didnt. A pleasant surprise
I dont believe your soliloquy is true. Soon to be sad man
Bernstein senate confirmed mon/tues. Enjoy
Maybe not zero but their intrinsic value is $0 since the spspa will not see face value when it is restructured— subpar spspa means commons are worthless from a restructuring standpoint. Buyer beware
jared bernstein to get senate confirmed mon/tues
then admin reform is on. spspa conversion wipes common. good night boys.
"The key, then, is to a) put private capital in a “first loss” position ahead of the government, and b) set a price for the government insurance that accurately reflects and offsets the expected taxpayer costs of the backstop" - Bernstein $FNMA #FANNIEGATE https://t.co/4IKdyPGHec pic.twitter.com/dJqgdIuFPL
— Fanniegate Hero (@DoNotLose) June 9, 2023
Ackman has preferred in case common get disproportionately nothing. Plus this position is a rounding error of his portfolio so he is position sizing it like it doesnt matter that he is wrong. Pity the fool. Should buy more prefs. Thats where the money is. Goood year 2023
Baller status
bravo!