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Sent: Wednesday, July 09, 2014 7:26 PM
Subject: [FANews] Why American Airlines Could Gain 40%
Here’s Why American Airlines Could Gain 40%
By Ben Levisohn
How much higher can American Airlines (AAL)? After today’s June-results announcement, Imperial Capital’s Bob McAdoo and Scott Buck think American Airlines could gain more than 40%. They explain why:
We are increasing our 2Q14 and CY2014 EPS estimates to reflect updated management guidance. Prior to the market open on 7/9/14, American Airlines released updated guidance for 2Q14 and full year 2014. Second quarter unit revenues (PRASM) growth is expected to be between 5.5% and 6.5%. This is tightening of management’s previously issued PRASM guidance range, on 6/9/14, which indicated PRASM growth of 5.0% to 7.0% vs. 2Q13. Cargo and Other revenues are also expected to be modestly better than our previous 2Q14 estimate. Pre-tax margin during the quarter is expected to be between 12.0% and 13.0%. This is above our previous expectation for pre-tax margins of 11.4%. As a result of the updated 2Q14 guidance, we are increasing our 2Q14 EPS estimate to $1.94 from $1.73. We are also increasing our full year 2014 EPS estimate to $6.14 from $5.75
American Airlines remains one of our top picks in the sector. We are maintaining our Outperform rating and raising our one-year price target to $58 from $55. We expect the new management team to continue to make structural changes to legacy AMR operations, which should extend earnings upside beyond the benefits of traditional merger synergies, in our view. These trends appear to be evident in the company’s most recent investor update on 7/9/14 that highlighted improving unit revenues and expanding pre-tax margins. With operational efficiencies approaching that of Delta Air Lines (DAL), we believe shares warrant a similar multiple. Our price target represents about 44% potential upside from the recent share price.
American Airlines trades at 6.7 times forward earnings, according to Yahoo! Finance, while Delta Air Lines trades at 10.2 times.
Shares of American Airlines have gained 3.1% to $41.50 at 10:58 a.m. today, while Delta Air Lines has risen 1.2% to $36.90. Even after today’s rise, American Airlines would still have to gain 40% to hit McAdoo and Buck’s $58 target.
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2014/07/09/heres-why-american-airlines-could-gain-40/
AGAIN? they raise the target, somebody puts a strong buy, good news all around, market is going great, and our price tanks, WTH? i just don't get it. i can only take so many buying opportunities, hahahahaha ok i am taking the rest of my savings out, transferring to stock acct, to buy more, which will take 3 days, which will obviously cause the PPS to jump in 2. hahhaaha
its not that i don't appreciate a slow steady climb, but i could really enjoy a good spike, like a $2.24 per share jump in one day
translation? does that mean shareholders are not getting anything? or not getting anything yet?
hedge fund question, assuming they are suppose to not invest in fresh outta BK companies for one year, what is the date they can start buying in? Dec. 8th? file date plus a year? emerge plus a year? looking for a day to mark my calendar, thanks
now we are really in a great buying zone,, wasn't buying more, but this is too good to pass by, keeping core, gotta get some "play" shares
there it is, not sure if this is outta the same pot, but as employee (union) just got a bonus stock award of 343.68. taxed in advance 128.88 for a payout of214.80. i know its very little but considering wasn't expecting it. will gladly take it. they gonna need to come up with more money, though, for my retiree medical that they have been paying into for nearly 30 years and decided to strip us of. suppose to get the premiums paid in, or the coverage back. maybe some time before the courts decide that one
i did notice this on my payroll books, it appears there may be another distributions,
this is an uncommon entry..
Payment Date Type Net Amount Note
07/03/2014 Stock Exercise Summary -
the last time we got a stock distribution it was coded as stock exercise summary,
it appeared with no dollar amount,, then a couple of days later, $$
interesting good omen
PS i am a IDF international Purser flight attendant
for AA for 28 years
i assume AAMRQ, but just wanna make sure i wasn't dreaming, cause it feels like it
2.52 per share would be a dream, shhhh i would have been pleased (mildly) :) with .52 cents a share, i am used to them coming up with some administration/legal/its a full moon on a tuesday fee, that drains it to nothing. so i am not rushing out to spend it just yet. but just like this ride started it sure is nice to dream, and in the case of the distributions, dreams do come true. and to all those "professional" investment firms that screamed, OMG SELL!!!! your going to loose everything, (and not just here and there, a bunch of different times) HA! lemmee just say that again, cause there is nothing bigger than caps, HA!
ps, is that the number of AMRQ shares, the total number of AAL shares, or just that few shares we got in DEC (initial payout)?
has there been news on june 30th (or after) possible extra distribution? i have been watching but haven't heard any good rumors or press releases. this will definitely be a "cherry on top", above and beyond, very much looking forward to it AND 50.00 bucks a share
not looking to OD on lollipops, but i really would like to see a new 52 week high tomorrow. and just think we could find out about bonus pops in 10 days
hey guys, i have heard y'all talking "options" as opposed to just buying shares, is there a place/book/such you would recommend so i can figure out a basic understanding if i can do this, if i should do this, ect. always looking to maximize my earnings
next goal? simple, the largest and best airline in the world, needs the best and largest stock price. whats UAL? 44-45, so we need to go above that. anyone else up there
anyone know about the date when folks starting buying AAMRQ in a substantial volume? the reason i ask, is we are approaching the one year mark for "long stocks" as far as tax savings. of course they sold ridiculous amounts when they first filed, but i was trying to project the upcoming sales of those who have held on but are simply waiting for the "long" status. is that clear? or am i just muddling the waters
American Airlines Group Stock News (NASDAQ:AAL)
38.19 -0.65 (-1.67%)
After Hours: 38.38 +0.19 (0.50%)
Several analysts have recently commented on the stock.
Analysts at Stifel Nicolaus initiated coverage on shares of American Airlines Group in a research note on Monday, May 5th.
They set a “buy” rating and a $45.00 price target on the stock. Separately, analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. reiterated an “overweight” rating on shares of American Airlines Group in a research note on Thursday, May 1st.
They now have a $55.00 price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at Bank of America reiterated a “neutral” rating on shares of American Airlines Group in a research note on Monday, April 28th.
They now have a $42.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $40.00.
Three research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and ten have assigned a buy rating to the company.
The stock presently has an average rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $44.12.
WKRB News and Analysis
American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) was the recipient of a significant drop in short interest in April.
As of April 30th, there was short interest totalling 14,949,434 shares, a drop of 23.8% from the April 15th total of 19,628,953 shares, Analyst Ratings.Net reports.
Based on an average daily volume of 11,537,262 shares, the days-to-cover ratio is presently 1.3 days. Currently, 3.2% of the shares of the stock are sold short.
Posted by Nolan Pearson on May 14th, 2014-Analyst Report
Jim Cramer’s Mad Money Stock Pick for Tuesday May 13 2014, American Airlines (AAL).
Cramer said the airlines are still trading at a deep discount compared to the overall market. TheStreet
Hedge-fund manager, Daniel Loeb's of Third Point LLC recently purchased 2.7 million shares of American Airlines.
Institutional Trading Activity Report for American Airlines Group (AAL) -- A total of 24 block trades were executed today, typically at least 10,000 shares or more represent a single block unit.
Block trades help investors understand the sentiment of large financial institutions.
Further trading analysis reveals that 239,673 shares were bought and 145,645 shares were sold. The bought/sold ratio for shares of American Airlines Group is 1.65, representing a positive net cash flow of $3,626,997 into the stock.
On the options side, a total of total of 20,618 call and 5,520 put contracts were traded yielding a 0.27 put/call ratio.
Within the last month, shares of AAL have gained 11.96% of their value. The trading volume of 6.28M is above the average volume of 4.02M shares.
they can't, your "long" date IS the date you purchased. forget about conversion dates, distribution dates, ect, ect. you will go long one year from date of your purchase. in the next few months you will see more and more, about this as the folks who bought in on ground floor of AAMRQ, go "long" don't be in too big a hurry, this stock, is definitely one to watch for the next 12-24 months, as all these plans come to fruition. 50-60 dollars a share is not unrealistic. i plan on, putting half in to retirement this fall, and rest in to retirement next fall. its been a life changer good luk
uuugghhh, someone make it stop, ready for power hour,
congrats to all, who stuck it out, thanks for encouragement, those leaving-enjoy, i am not leaving yet, but XMAS 2014 will be exceptional, as will my retirement in 10 years. this was a life changer and was glad to be a part of it. and what a wonderful experience this group was, with so many passive-aggresive, sometimes down right mean, nasty, crazy, full of BS groups, this was a respectful, informative group
My TD Ameritrade just posted this minute
final (employee) equity payment is in the computer, yeeeaa, smaller than expected, but welcome funds, none the less. now waiting for my personal common shares to jump
nothing in TD Ameritrade, yet. excited. its not the end. its the beginning, no more waiting, just watching, watching it grow, watching it ALL grow. please post when you SEE in your acct
anyone know for sure the april formula dates and distribution dates
its time to get that "second bite" from the apple. everyone knows where this is going, buy on the dips, hold on the highs, this fortitude hs got us here, and will carry us thru. the numbers are still in our favor. the boys are still saying buy buy buy
since i am not selling, this is a buying opportunity, FINALLY
its cause many are in disbelief, that a Bankrupt stock can turn out this way, a game changer, no more "hot potato hot potato"
44.22 is my next goal (cause i like round numbers, in my totals) then i want to earn for uncle sam till sept. happy camper here. thank you deterring for helping me hold on. couldn't be there for toast this time i was working FC, DFW- GRU, but you can bet i will be sitting in first class from now on. thanks
so, conversion week, is 3/4/5/6/7, with payout on or after 9th?
well, if we have a 35 dollar cap, we are looking good on getting the most we can get, on next conversion, so, (not to be greedy) but assuming 35$ cap for mar and april conversion, anyone know if there is any bonus, dividend, surplus or such that might be in the pipeline, above and beyond that cap? such as leftover $, or that, BK fund $ that might be leftover. would be nice. not selling till fall (if then) but, 44.23 is another hurdle for me. that i look forward to
anyone know if they are even still in business?
OOOPPPS, my bad, lollipops you-tube post was meant for us, i didn't know she passed away, sorry bad taste, my apologies, admin can delete posts please. condolences to an American ICON
got mine too, TD, yippee, now the wait for march and april, whew this is worse than christmas, the waiting the excitement, so with the 35 cap everyone has been talking about, we really don't have a lot of guess work, just hope for volume and never dropping below 35. ? i think 41 is gonna sneak up on us faster than we think. but i am happy if we stay above 35 and keep a slow steady climb
works for me
ok i will bite, what happens in 2 more christmas's. going from a short to a long is 12 months. so curious to learn something new. not selling till aug (when i am long) and then some.IMO this parade has a couple of years, left in it. (is that what your talking about?)
pre market 34.10. YEEEESSSS, can we all agree that this can just go ahead and hit 35.00 and just stay all week? hahhaha
whew this roller coaster makes me dizzy, loving it though, what day starts the 5 day avg? 31st/3/4/5/6?
Today we announced our fourth quarter and 2013 financial results. This is first time we are announcing earnings following our merger and because of this our results are more complicated than usual. You will see both Generally Accepted Accounting Principle (GAAP) numbers as well as some non-GAAP numbers, and the reasons for this are outlined below. Though the abundance of financial information this quarter may seem confusing, reporting results this way is typical following a merger (the earnings for Delta-Northwest and United-Continental were similar when they first merged, too).
Our earnings report this quarter includes what is known as “non-GAAP” financial statements for the new American. Using non-GAAP results summarizes what the financial statements for our combined company would have been had we been operating as a merged entity for the entire fourth quarter (instead of just the 23 days in December after the merger closed). Companies present financial information this way following a merger to help investors benchmark the new company’s results against what prior results would have been. In addition, there may be certain adjustments to highlight the true “earnings quality” of their results, such as removing “special items” related to bankruptcy and merger accounting.
In the fourth quarter our non-GAAP combined net profit excluding net special charges totaled $436 million, a $478 million improvement versus the fourth quarter 2012 net loss. For full year 2013, non-GAAP combined net profit excluding net special charges was $1.9 billion, a $1.5 billion improvement versus a full year 2012 net profit.
We will continue to report our results on a non-GAAP basis until 2015 when we have a true apples-to-apples comparison of our performance on a year-over-year basis.
We’re less than two months into the integration of our two airlines, and already we’ve hit a number of key integration milestones, including:
¦Launched the first phase of codesharing which offers customers improved access to the company’s global network by allowing them to book select flights on both airlines' networks
¦Provided reciprocal benefits for Club members and Elite members, including priority check-in, waiver of fees for checked bags, complimentary access to preferred seats, priority security, early boarding and priority baggage delivery
¦Allowed AAdvantage® and Dividend Miles members to earn and redeem miles when traveling across either airline's network
¦Trained more than 85,000 customer-facing employees
Thank you again for all you are doing to take care of our customers. We have a lot of integration work ahead for sure, and we are off to a great start.
Doug