Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Sizeable Insider Buying In Bank Of America
June 13, 2012
Shane Blackmon
"After the close today, Charles Gifford, a BAC director announced he has bought 482,794 shares at $7.36. This $3.5M purchase is significant for Charles, considering he had owned fewer than 100,000 shares."
Hmm... he beat me by 16 cents cheaper! C'est la vie.
Valuable and timely technical info. Thank you.
Today's (06/12/12) interplay of the 5-10-20 day emas:
5-day ema ($7.40) is above both the 10-day ema ($7.30) and the 20-day ema ($7.38).
The current ST UPTREND is continuing. Good luck
ATTENTION
The 5-10-20 day ema interaction BAC chart on this website above is WRONG! Please do your own due diligence work in this respect to check it for yourself. Good luck
Today's interplay of 5-10-20 day emas as follows:
5-day($7.36) is still above 10-day($7.31)
5-day($7.36) is almost parallel with 20-day($7.37)
Should tomorrow's bac pps close above today's, we still maintain the 2 STAGES positive... with a chance of the likely continuation of the current chance of the likely start of an uptrend.
However, if the 5-day ema crosses under the 20-ema ($7.37) decisively, and then proceeds also to cross under the 10-day ema (now $7.31), then the current attempt would be aborted.
This may sound a bit like chasing details. But if it's taken as the detail it is in the larger plan/scheme and timframe one has... it may help one to measure progress, or the lack of it.
Good luck
Interesting day today.
1. I had a limit order for today at $7.28 changing my previous plan of buying at $7.25 and under. Strange enough, about one min. before the close of the market, my order was executed.
2. As I updated my LMP Indicator I noticed something that was quite unexpected because the Dow was down by about 143 points.
But behind the smoke and mirrors... TODAY the Dow Industrial, and the Wilshire Index BOTH (as indicated by stockcharts.com) had P&F Pattern Double Top BREAKOUTS! The former is a psychological barometer (often misleading) and the latter, imo a better representative of the overall markets. What's happening here?
We shall see.
Good luck
Hmm... the Dow goes down 143 points but what happens behind the smoke and mirrors?
The Dow Industrial, and the Wilshire 5000 Index have BOTH have P&F PATTERN Double Top BREAKOUTS? Ah am surprised! The former is a psychological barometer (often misleading), and the latter, imo, a better representative of the overall markets.
As some informed advisors think we are already in a bear market... all I can say is we shall see.
Good luck!
Flexibility and Price Levels
The new circumstances in the markets require flexibility and using a price levels' set up to trade and not length of time, imo.
For example, for BAC, I will be a buyer tomorrow (06/11/2012) should price go down to $7.25 pps or under... and a seller at $8.65 and above. $8.65 is about 15% profit on my shares a minimum goal, at least.
I let the market help me make the decision. Those are my parameters at this time. Of course, flexibility also requires change depending on what is unfolding. Thinking/dreaming of doubling my money often often backfires imo in this new reality of the market.
It does not make too much sense imo, to think LT like it was before. Yes, there may be exceptions depending on the potential of a given company based on some specific situation(s). But then you have a reason and a plan, hopefully. But for most of the stocks, length of time may not necessarily be positive. Good skills in trading with a cool, calm and collected approach... avoiding greed.
Since the 2008 financial and mortgage crisis/debacle, I think trading psychology changed a lot... given increased volatility and sizeable ups and downs in the market and stocks.
For one thing, cycles are shortened given the new computerized speedier trading and new systems of trading taking advantage of market circumstances.
The new ways of trading by the Big Boyz seems to be in response to the changed conditions and circumstances and the new economic realities and environment that a new world economic system will require many years to evolve. The likelihood of the process will go from one crisis to another causing high volatility. Not much can be done to solve the latter. It's due to the complexity of the challenge, the differences of the economies, human nature of disliking change, etc. It will take time and such a project requres time, patience, and understanding of the enormity of the task.
Hence, a bird in the hand... is worth two in the bush in this type of environment. And, imo, investing for the LT is no guaranty for being successful.... as we have experienced in the last decade. One has to become more of a skilled trader far from being a permabear or permabull. Flexibility and skills in money management are key. Dreamers beware!
Good luck
Any change in BAC trend can be first observed by the interplay of the 5-10-20 day emas as shown at the top of this screen page. Positive echnical activity just in the last 3 market sessions are encouraging. Here's what that chart shows:
STAGE 1: the 5-day ema crossing over the 10-day ema.
STAGE 2: 5-day ema then proceeds to cross over the 20-day.
At that point... one could see a promise of the likely start of a new uptrend in BAC pps.
Last week's attempt failed soon after the STAGE 1 crossover on Wednesday May 30. The move was aborted on Thursday May 31, by the 5-day ema crossing back DOWN the 10-day ema.
This week's story was DIFFERENT and could be interesting.
On Wednesday June 6, the 5-day ema crossed over the 10-day ema. On Friday June 8, the 5-day ema CONTINUED and successfully crossed over the 20-day ema. Both STAGES are now complete.
That was a promising technical development.
Let's hope it will not be negatively impacted by negative news. Apparently a bailout of Spanish banks already was agreed upon... in the Brussel meeting today... ($100 Billion?). This can have a positive impact on the markets and specially the banking sector. We shall see on Monday.
Good luck.
It could be a bear rally. But we shall see. The bear phase of the current market apparently started recently... since the bottom in March 2009. Good luck.
A lot depends on one's time horizon.
Even at $7.64 the pps of BAC is closer to the bottom than the top in the larger scheme of things and a timeframe of about 2-3 years.
It depends on one's style of investing/trading, risk tolerance, (informed) patience... exercisizing discipline, and skilled in money management besides being aware of the limits of greed and fear. I know that may be too much to expect from the average investor. Making money in the stock market is a tough challenge requiring no less.
Excerpts from Richard Russell:
"A primary bear market has been signaled according to Dow Theory. On May 1 the Dow Industrials rose to a high of 13,279.32. The Transports failed by a wide margin to confirm. The two Averages then turned down and broke below their April lows. Under Dow Theory, this was confirmation that a primary bear market is in progress.
As so often happens, the bear signal arrived at a time when the stock market was acutely oversold. Most bear markets wipe out a half to two-thirds of the preceding bull market. As a rule, the more froth the bull market generates, the nastier the bear market that follows.
Major bear market declines can be extended and even tedious, while the rallies or counter-moves can come unexpectedly and are often rapid and violent (the violence is usually a result of frantic short-covering by traders who are trapped by the rally).
I want to reiterate that bear markets tend to be deceptive and not usually given to logical analysis. One reason for this is that bear markets operate within a background of naked fear. Two emotions rule the market -- Fear and greed. Of the two, fear is the stronger of the two -- because the specter behind the fear is LOSS. Greed is also a strong emotion, but fear of loss trumps the desire for gain.”"
Let me explain.
As I try to catch early signals of a possible likely emerging message, after a downmove of 3 weeks, on May 29 FOUR breakouts happened (out of 17). The market seemed to be giving a message of change.. but as I know better now, we were already in the bear phase. I assumed that MORE breakouts could follow as it is in a bull phase most of the time. This is now a clue instead that in a bear phase, it is different unlike in a bull phase. Bear phase rallies as the signals tend to be fickle and not relieable. A quick misleading message that one could easily misinterpret.
However, hardly within 3 days/sessions- May 31, June 1, and today June 4 - there were 12 NEW breakdowns in addition to 3 breakdowns. This change came fast and furious... as the breakdowns total now 15 out of the 17! This tells a different story than had the market been in a bull phase... as the article today in MarketWatch illustrated by Dr. Elder and Louvvorn on the Dow. This is clear now looking back on all major market indices.
No it wasn't a joke. It shouldn't be taken lightly and I don't. But, I have a feeling that the market is quite jittery and on edge... from my perspective based on the data I observe.
Good luck
On the left side of the top tool bar. Sorry
When you get page
Click on marketwatch on top towards the right on the toolbar. When you get the page, Select "Elder and Lovvorn"s Get Ready for Dow 11000 article.
Having done more checks myself, it's quite clear that we are in a BEAR PHASE of the current cycle.
Good luck
That is likely to happen given that we have now entered the bear phase of the current cycle of the market that started in March 2009. It seems we already hit the bull phase top recently in early May, 2012. Accordingly, I will be waiting to buy when bac pps is lower.
I have respect for Dr. Alex Elders T/A that now confirms what I said I was concerned about... that the bull phase had been quite long and it may be that we could be heading to an end. The article below makes sense given the timing of the cycle. This correction could be deeper than the ones we had since this cycle started in March 2009.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-dow-11000-2012-0
Re: LMP Indicator Update (05/29/2012 29-May-12 04:57 pm
As of the close of the markets today, the message from market internals is that the larger market correction is over at this time. The trend is up now.
Be aware that most stocks will be participoating in this positive change in market direction.
The coming rallies will be sustainable... in response to Maria on cnbc just questioning it "If this rally is sustainable?".
YES, Maria. It is sustainable... until such time as I get another message FROM the MARKET telling me that it is no more!
Good luck
PS: Copied what I posted at another website, today.
Now I'm invested 13.6% of my current portfolio funds in BAC at an ave. cost of $7.5 per share. I'm also invested in C about 29.7% of my funds.
However, should BAC price approach lower $6 and below, I will buy more to bring it up to 20-25%. I'm plan to buy more if share price declines about $6 and under.
It's important to have a plan.
Good luck with your plan.
For your info, the utiliies have been on P&F Pattern Double Top Breakout since Dec. 22, 2011 and reconfirmed on March 12, 2012! Still going strong. As to individual utilities, just do your own dd work. Good luck.
As to the LMP, the current correction is still ongoing... nothwithstanding today's up market.
Good luck
Both the larger market and BAC are in downtrends at this time.
Btw, JP Morgan Losses are 4 Billions and not 2 Billions. I suspect this was known to those involved including Jamie Dimon... but most likely it was deliberately handled in this manner to soften its impact.
The update of my LMP (Larger Market Picture) Indicator shows that the internal strength of the market is badly eroding by todays several new BREAKDOWNS in its components. This comes on what I posted on May 8 saying that the Indicator had confirmed the preceding week's signal that the stock market was weakening.
Accordingly, this correction may likely be the worst one since the bottom in early March 2009 of the current cycle of the market.
We shall see as it unfolds. But at this point in time, things are not looking too optimistic. Yes, imo, BAC share price is heading lower given the present situation.
Sentiment : Sell
JP Morgan losses are more like 4 billions and not 2 billions as first reported.
I suspect this was known to those involved including Jamie Dimon... but most likely it was deliberately handled in this manner to soften its impact.
And, today's update of my (LMP) Indicator for the larger market shows that the internal strength of the market is eroding by several new BREAKDOWNS in its components. This correction may likely be the worst one since the bottom in early March 2009 of the current cycle of the market.
We shall see as it unfolds. But at this point in time, things are not looking too optimistic.
It is said that "only fools chase bottoms or tops". One advisor said do like what you do when you eat fish... cut the head (top) and tail (bottom) and savor what's in between.
If one is intent to watch it closely, I would choose to check the 5, 10, and 20 ema's and their interaction as any likely change that's going to happen will appear there that can be 'meaningful' in the technical front.
The most important feature of a moving average is its slope. At this time all 3 of these curves are sloping down. The trend is down.
Any change in trend will be seen (retroactively, of course) by keeping a check of the 5 ema when first it flattens and then turns upward. Crossing the 10 ema upward could probably hold a promise of the beginning of a bottom formation. In order that to happen, the share price has to move up for few days (somewhat consistently) by 3%-4% (18-25+ cents a day). But should these gains are soon given back... it's not a good sign, especially if they exceed above 50%.
A crossing up of the 5 ema with 10 ema and then both gradually turning upward in the direction of 20 ema could hold the promise of a likely trend reversal.
It's good to keep in mind that charts only track where price has been... and do not tell where the price will go. Only where it has been in just the recent past.
ST, IT, and LT the trend has been down... since March 26, 2012 Presently the larger market looks also weakening and a correction in progress. It has been about 38 months since the bottom in early March 2009 of this market cycle. My 2c.
Good luck
You do have the right approach with BAC- accumulation in steps by lowering your ave. cost, in times of prolonged downtrends with big company stocks such a BAC.
Ideally, the buying should be timed and done at prices gradually lower from your original purchase price... say beginning from 15% down (from original purchase), then 25% etc. and with increasing funds, if possible.
It takes patience and determination, besides funds of course.
Money management and patience is very important here. Knowledge of T/A to interpret support and resistance levels could also add to one's perspective.
Good luck
BAC is already in a downtrend in ST, IT, and LT trends, in case you were not aware of its trend status. Good luck.
My BAC shares ave. cost is $7.92
I intend to buy more around $7 or under.
Since the charts show ST, IT, and LT trend is down, the chances seem fair price may go even lower than $7. The larger market is now trending down as well. We shall see.
I just posted the following on another board
"My Indicator for the Larger Market gave a warning early last week. Since then things have gotten progressively more negative. Today, in addition to the warnings and few breakdowns, a P&F Pattern Triple Bottom Breakdown confirmed of what may be coming ahead: A CORRECTION of unknown magnitude as of this time."
Continued...
Should a serious correction hit the market, most stocks, including BAC, will be affected by it. Accordingly, be aware that such a likelihood exists at this time. My ave. cost for BAC is about mid $7's Should it go under it, I will be buying more for IT and LT. The important thing, imo, is to plan for that eventuality, should BAC price go lower. Or, those wanting to short may have a better chance for success. We shall find out in coming weeks/months. Good luck.
My Indicator for the Larger Market gave a warning early last week. Since then things have gotten progressively more negative. Today, in addition to the warnings and few breakdowns, a P&F Pattern Triple Bottom Breakdown confirmed of what may be coming ahead: A CORRECTION of unknown magnitude as of this time.
Consider that 38 months have elapsed since the bottom in early March 2009. The record shows in general that Bull markets last from 22 to 33 months. If this is one of those cycles, it may be that the bull phase could come to an end. Or it may be just a correction in a continuing (secular?) bull market should we establish new tops in the months ahead. Or could a bear phase is about to start is if the usual 4-5 year cycle is assumed?
If we assume the latter, the correction could be deeper than the corrections we have experienced so far in this cycle.
A correction of many stocks appears to have started already and it seems to me that the fast expansion of the breakdowns in the components of my Indicator since last week (9 out of 17 total) is indeed a fast pace. This is rather a fast expansion and unless we begin to head soon in the opposite direction... (which I doubt if we assume what I stated above), could escalate into a bear phase in the weeks/months ahead. We shall see.
Just wanted you to be aware of what my Indicator reading at this time. The market can do anything.
Good luck to all
Hmm... If that were true, you would be rich.
Each market is unique no matter what the stats say.
The market is a formidable challenge. Could you use the same logic forecasting the weather without doing dd every time?
BAC support level being tested at this time. Technically the chart looks very weak and I wouldn't be surprised if the support fails. I would be a buyer under $7.95 range for IT & LT.
JPM and WFC will report earnings on Friday April the 13th... and they may impact BAC price. BAC earnings report on Thursday April 19th. Interesting week ahead for the banks.
Massive support around level 8.12 and the trend is up
I bought it at $4.59 and hope to make some money after a long wait.
However, I made money the first round soon after the March 2009 market bottom when I bought at $2.75 and sold later a bit early at $3.5 Thus I am ahead.
But the second time around the wait has been a bit long. The reverse split was not good for investors as a higher number can fall a long way down. Had they kept share value before the reverse split, we would be in better shape.
However, BAC is a different story. It was great the first time as I more than doubled my investment... and now I'm ahead as well accumulating it $5.18 in Dec. 2011 & $9.20 a week ago. I will buy more should price go lower soon.
Good luck trading/investing
Another point is just the recent unsustainable almost vertical rise in the price of BAC shares. It will have to fall back to a sustainable level and pace of fluctuation. Otherwise, there won't be enough money to pay all the options speculators. It just doesn't work in this manner. Simply not realistic to expect price continue like even last week it happened. It was 22%!
Excellent charts above.
Reading the charts, I say this could rudely test one's patience. However, one has to distinguish between patience and obstinance.
I can afford to keep the 5000 shares as I'm doing pretty well with my BAC and C shares. Actually I'm adding on my BAC shares on weakness. My ave. is about $7 and at this time the price is trying to grasp $10.
However, uninformed (ignorant?) patience in the stock market can be hazardous to one's financial health. One has to strike a good balance between greed and fear. Yes, it does take time to learn that... and can only take place in one's experience. Reading books and taking high degrees may help... but they will never do the job!
Good trading/investing
Banks are part of the infrastructure of the financial system. They are an important part and as they are there in the process of an improving economy. Actually 40% of my portfolio is now in 3 banks- C, BAC and Irish banks.
True. I would buy more at $8.50 should it drop to that level.
I agree with what you said.
I made money already since the market bottom in 2009 and this is the second time around for me. My ave. cost this time is about $7 per share. Last time I bought right under $4 and sold at $9 after several months.
I will trade with part of my shares. For the rest I will keep it for an intermediate time frame depending also with the larger market condition for which I have an Indicator.
Good trading/investing.
Good to see you too, King.
Interesting and insightful article. Thanks.
Behind the current 'exhale'... it is indeed surprising to me to see signs that the underlying strength of the larger market is still getting stronger.
Good luck in your trading/investing. You must do what makes you feel comfortable and right.
WOW, what an accident! Sad... Unfortunaly no point in asking if the driver escaped alive from it.
Yes, I think we will have a correction... but it will of 'exhale' variety. The underlying internal strength of the market remains quite strong. Good luck.