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dd:The revenge of geography
Mar 13th 2003
From The Economist print edition
It was naive to imagine that the global reach of the internet would make geography irrelevant. Wireline and wireless technologies have bound the virtual and physical worlds closer than ever
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=1620794
ot: talk about a great imho tag line...
Paul Masson will sell no wine b4 its time, lol
cloude8" I will not sell b4 mature"...roflol
HOLD EM TIGHT BABY!!!!And scrape dem technicals off da wall cuz the party is about to begin...jmho....
http://news.newstimeslive.com/story.php?id=71392&category=Local
sure woogs
I think we will approach a 1.80ish base range give or take a few nickels....jmho...eot
Way ot: sorry, here are the links to previous post fwiw:
Jute Seeds:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Technology/Mobile-rings-changes-for-worlds-poor/2005/04/21/1114028473872....
Xros old dd:http://www.nortel.com/corporate/news/newsreleases/2000a/03_14_0000157_ouzo.html
dd: Phone as Platform: Lessons from ITP
Good Sunday Evening Listen....For all... and especially for JP upon his return from the Coral Reef Adventure south of the US border:
As the power and flexibility of the mobile phone platform grows, developers have the opportunity to create new, creative applications which take advantage of the mobile phone’s unique features. Applications can combine GPS, voice, and the use of in-built cameras to add a new dimension to gaming and social networking software, among others.
Writer and consultant Clay Shirky discusses his experience of teaching at NYU's graduate Interactive Telecommunications Program over the past three years, and the lessons he's learned from a number of his student's own projects.
Clay describes the technology behind several of these projects, details what faculty and students have learned about design and deployment of applications that rely on phones, and speculates on future developments both on the phones themselves, and on ways of integrating the phone network with internet-hosted infrastructure.
http://www.itconversations.com/shows/detail465.html
ot: joedimaggio6
I am not just agreeing with you because you have about 14 times the amount of shares that my family has (lol, I got to get off this you have this I have that we are this and we are that because heck, some of us may someday end up working for this company or in the industries that will be spawned as a result of this next stage in the evolution of "THE TRANSISTOR"....jmho...and money and shares won't matter, the principal of the matter will and imho the "principal based approach" will best be correlated to help out man and womankind connect to their own ubiquitous wavelength whether its the Dominos delivery dude/dudette trying to get a straight path to a location to deliver a pizza, or a militaty unit trying to gain better situational awareness or a average "joe schmo" like me who needs to figure out how to fiz a flat on the road with the rental car he is in, or even like a farmer is Bangladesh who will ensure he gets the best price for his seasonal jute seeds...)...But I agree, for example how do you value a google in the making or a microsoft back in the 80'sxros back in 2000???? old dd: (Nortel Networks (NT:NYSE - news) said Tuesday that it would buy Xros for stock valued at $3.25 billion, as Nortel comes closer to throwing the switch on an all-optical network.
Shares of Nortel rose 2 1/16, or 2%, to close at 123 3/4.
Xros, a privately owned business based in Sunnyvale, Calif., makes switches that use tiny mirrors to reflect beams of light that carry data along network lines. The benefit is that these switches allow a greater capacity of data to flow through the switches without causing bottlenecks.
The life span of a new independent company in the optical equipment business is a matter of months. Only last November, Xros chief executive Greg Reznick rounded up $20 million in venture funding for his optical networking start-up. Primary backers of the company Menlo Ventures, New Enterprise Associations and Greylock, identified early on that the market would be lucrative.)
Or a Google or yahoo when If I went to my P&G profit center managers at the time back in mid 90's and mentioned a yahoo or google, they'd have me fired for dreaming about better solution fits while on the clock...lol...in any event, I hope we are all correct in our assumptions here, so many dots that can be conected yet so far from any substantial meat/news but the anticipateion of it all is intoxicatingly robust...and good luck to all....over and out,
SOG
****************************
Bonus DD:
****************************
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Technology/Mobile-rings-changes-for-worlds-poor/2005/04/21/1114028473872....
Ot Sunday Mind Dump: Figured I'd say thanks to all for posting their comments and dd here (especially the changewave teaser alert updates, lol), It is so beneficial for neom junkies like myself to have a "corner bar" so to speak to come into and take the edge off the day with some good reads here....I, like others are betting a good chunk of change (78,000 shares now fwiw) to help me achieve a certain level of financial independence and insulation from the uncertain job markets, social security fiasco and general uncertainty the "war on terror" will bring the markets probably at least for the next 10 years of so while major cells (pardon the pun) are weeded out hopefully.....
In any event, I am sure we all can get on each others nerves at times, but think about the unique melting pot of talent that is here and contributing and not bashful to question certain posters...truly a gift and I have been involved with another stock like this and feel dejaveu all over again, seeing similar posters and similar emotions, but one thing is, we are basing quite nicely and the anticipation of events about to unfold is incredible.... my wife even read me the USA today article from Fri./Sat/Sun edition and said "sonofgodzilla did you read this, allot of what you have been mentioning about this so called mobile phenom is in this article"...to which I replied, Yep" Mothra, it sure would be nice if our hunch is correct and our lil gem neomedia delivers a small but significant contribution to this new cell hone/mobile phenom/paradigm shift..." (of course I also had to disclose the amount of shares we own the good hubby I am and so far she seems ok with it, although she really doesn't understand how many we have I think, lol).
I know one thing, investing is fun and will be even better if we can approach that "10 bagger" from here…
Bonus DD for Sunday afternoon dreamers and holders of Neomedia: http://biz.yahoo.com/weekend/rich_1.html http://www.forbes.com/lifestyle/2005/05/05/cx_sc_0506homeslide.html?partner=yahoo
ot, plus, by the time everyone keeps mentioning it, there are 50 gazillion more ot posts, lol....evolution at its best...."...One can't force evolution, one can only help shape it..."
zcnb asjajsfoiqw[qw[poqw]qw
dd: The Profits in the Attic
How an old technology has turned Ampex into America's hottest stock.
By Daniel Gross
http://slate.msn.com/id/2115920/
(ps lesnshawn, let's hope we're right on this one)
way ot: Looking to the future
Mission: Impossible 3 to Shoot in China
Source: CRI May 10, 2005
Paramount Pictures is set to film part of Tom Cruise's Mission: Impossible 3 in China. The third installment will be directed by Alias and Lost creator J.J. Abrams.
According to CRI, Cruise will drive a motorcycle loaded with guns on the streets of Beijing and Shanghai. The filming is expected to take place in the country this July.
"M:I-3" is expected to hit theaters in the summer of 2006.
Weekend DD With Wodz: Steve Wozniak Part 1
co-founder, Apple Computer
http://www.itconversations.com/shows/detail214.html
dd: (circa 1995)Excerpts from an Oral History Interview with Steve Jobs
Founder, NeXT Computer.
http://americanhistory.si.edu/collections/comphist/sj1.html
ot Quote OF The Day: "...Because of their technological innocence, I would say. When we first went to talk to these record companies -- you know, it was a while ago. It took us 18 months. And at first we said: None of this technology that you're talking about's gonna work. We have Ph.D.'s here, that know the stuff cold, and we don't believe it's possible to protect digital content..."
dd for mgt: Steve Jobs: The Rolling Stone Interview
He changed the computer industry. Now he's after the music business
By Jeff Goodell
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/_/id/5939600?rnd=1116035298265&has-player=true&versio...
dd: Best Mobile Application Awards
http://www.mobile-weblog.com/archives/best_mobile_applications_awards.html
dd: Enter whole new world with your phone
By Jefferson Graham, USA TODAY
LOS ANGELES — Ferney Zantello uses his cell phone for a lot more than just talking. With his tiny Sanyo SCP-7300 he can surf the Internet, take pictures of his wife and kids, zap them wirelessly back to the family and pick up quick text messages from his wife through the day.
"Most people my age I know only use phones for conversations," says Zantello, 33, a staff sergeant with the Marines stationed in Oceanside, Calif. "But it's just a matter of time before everyone will use their phones this way. Once they experience it, they won't be able to turn back."
How the plans compare
:How much it will cost to go multimedia on your phone:
Verizon Wireless. $39.99 for entry-level voice 450-minute plan, plus $15 for Internet access and vCast — Verizon's assortment of TV and movie clips from channels including CNN, NBC News, VH1 and short "webisodes" based on Fox series such as 24 . You'll pay extra to watch snippets of The Simple Life and sporting games, from 49 to 99 cents a clip. TV-capable phones start at about $149.99 with a two-year contract.
Sprint PCS. $35 for entry-level service plan with 300 minutes, plus unlimited usage of text and picture messaging, and Internet access, which includes Sprint TV - clips from NBC News, ABC News and Discovery Channel and live TV from Fox News Channel. Sprint also offers MobiTV news feeds of channels such as MSNBC and ABC News for $20 a month, after discounts. Multimedia-capable phones start at $169 with a contract.
Cingular. $29.99 for entry-level voice plan of 200 minutes, with an extra $24.99 for unlimited text and picture messaging, Internet access and MobiTV's live channel feeds. The multimedia-capable Motorola V180 is free with a 2-year plan, but the picture will be jerky. For better video, Cingular offers the Nokia 6620 at $249.99 with a contract.
T-Mobile. Currently, no entertainment offering.
Zantello's sentiments are exactly what the wireless industry is banking on. After selling more than 1.6 billion cell phones worldwide over the past few years and convincing nearly everyone who would ever want one to sign up for basic cell service, cell phone companies need new services to keep growth going.
So now they're blanketing offers for entertainment oriented add-ons that would have been unfathomable just a year or two ago:
• Want to watch TV on your phone? Verizon, Sprint and Cingular offer clip highlights and feeds from networks including NBC, ABC and Discovery. Verizon even has one-minute takeoffs of hit TV shows 24 and The Simple Life.
• How about checking your e-mail or surfing the Web on the phone? That's easy. For an additional fee of $5 to $15, add Internet access to your monthly phone bill, and you'll always be connected. Extra fees apply to get access to corporate e-mail. Watching TV on the phone will cost extra: around $15 to $25 monthly.
• Care to ditch the iPod and use your phone for music? It's not easy to do yet, but it can be done. Plus, the carriers are looking to music as a new growth area, and envision operating music download stores, like Apple's iTunes Music Store, that would enable users to pluck songs from a cell-estial jukebox in the sky anywhere they are.
The transition of the phone into a mini-PC came about due to a confluence of events, says Paul Palmieri, executive director of business development for No. 2 wireless carrier Verizon Wireless.
He cites increased processing power in new phones, faster, rebuilt wireless networks and the success of selling ringtones: those personalized sound clips that go for about $2.99 each.
"We're beyond early adopters now," he says. "The market for wireless data is now mainstream."
"Data" is industryspeak for non-voice use, like Internet access, game play and text messaging (instant messaging on the phone).
Ask folks who use their cell phones as mini-computers, and they'll admit the shortcomings. There's a huge difference between surfing the Net with a full-size qwerty keyboard and big screen and a tiny device with a 2-inch screen and traditional phonepad. But it can be done. Check in with the millions of people who type in text messages each week to Fox's American Idol, where viewers vote for contestants by calling and sending in text messages. This year alone, Cingular, the nation's largest wireless carrier says its 50 million subscribers sent 4.4 billion text messages in the first quarter.
Making the wireless Internet experience better now than before is the faster speed on some of the cellular networks. Verizon has spent $5 billion since 2004 upgrading its system for faster data delivery. Sprint and Cingular say they are in the process of upgrades and will introduce next-generation networks later this year.
"This is like when people switched from dial-up to broadband," says Peter Rojas, editor of the Engadget Web site, which chronicles gizmos and gadgets. "Having unlimited access to data while on the go is just incredible. You can be anywhere, check a phone number, look up a map, read a restaurant review, and it changes the way you think about the Internet."
Recent University of Michigan graduate Adam Herscher spends $90 a month for a complete suite of services from T-Mobile, including Internet access.
That's a good deal more than his fellow Michigan students, he admits. "At first, when people see what I do with the phone, they say, 'Why would anyone want to do that?' Then as they're around me more often, their attitude changes, and it's, 'I need to do that too. That's cool.' "
He not only looks up maps, restaurant or movie reviews, he also transfers episodes of South Park and The West Wing that he recorded on his PC to his phone and watches them on the bus.
When Google co-founder Larry Page visited Michigan to speak to students, Herscher recorded the entire speech to his phone, then posted it on his blog.
"It sure showed a lot of people what was capable with new phones," he says.
Smart phones
The caveat is that Herscher used a "smart phone," which is slightly larger than the traditional cell phone — and more expensive. Smart phones, like the PalmOne Treo or Siemens SX66, are combination PDAs/phones that can hold calendar/address book functions, often have tiny qwerty keyboards, memory slots for storing pictures and music and a more enhanced Internet browsing experience.
Entry-level phones given away for free by the carriers mostly have what are called WAP browsers—a tool to surf the Net on mobile phones. Internet access is primarily limited to the sites the carriers want you to go to — or, if you can make your way around the Net, it's a mobile-lite version that tends to only show text.
Not so with smart phones.
Mark Carl, 43, of Lewiston, N.Y., says his Nokia 6620 smart phone is a "lifeline." A registered nurse, he uses it daily in the ICU for instant access to medical information. His family text messages him for updates on home life. And he plays games on the phone to relax.
Carl spends $70 a month on his cell bill and marvels at how advanced wireless technology has become. "The idea of having TV on the phone a year ago would have seemed so far in the future, but it's here now, and that's just amazing."
Verizon comes out on top
So you want to watch TV on your cellphone?
You'll be viewing a screen bigger than a postage stamp, smaller than a CD cover and about on par with a digital camera LCD preview monitor. As a way to alleviate boredom in a doctor's office, commuting on public transportation or standing in line for a movie, it's not bad at all. As a replacement for the living room set — forget about it.
We tested TV services with the three major carriers and found Verizon's vCast to be vastly superior to the competition. It displayed surprisingly colorful and clear picture quality, at 15 frames a second (as opposed to regular TV's 30 frames).
The flickering images on Sprint and Cingular's MobiTV services range from one to five frames a second, depending on the phone used, and can best be described as akin to watching a badly dubbed 1950s Japanese horror film. The words fly by on the soundtrack, but the lips rarely move. Sprint says its SprintTV collection of clips can play at up to 15 frames a second but doesn't look it. While better than MobiTV, the video is jerky and the lips don't match the words.
Long load times preclude the clips or feeds from starting up, and don't even think about using the cursor on the handset to replicate a remote control. That is, unless you don't mind minutes elapsing between channel stops
David Linsalata, an analyst with market tracker IDC, thinks the carriers have a greater shot making money by selling mobile songs to consumers than TV clips — but he believes they will do a strong business with clips.
"When you're bored, waiting on a line or traveling, people use their mobile phone now to entertain them," he says. "You won't be watching movies, but the idea of catching highlights, or even a rerun of sitcom you missed makes sense."
cell phones and wireless activity in Europe and Asia is even more advanced than here, taking advantage of faster networks and consumers who spend more time on public transportation. Their willingness to pay for add-on services convinces the wireless industry that it can happen here, too.
A mobile world
So far, it doesn't look like the carriers are dreaming.
Amid much consolidation in the industry (Cingular acquired AT&T Wireless, Sprint is gobbling up Nextel) the big three carriers all added subscribers in the first quarter and increased sales, with Cingular reaping $8.2 billion, Verizon $7.4 billion and Sprint $3.8 billion.
Cingular Vice President Jim Ryan is convinced that based upon how consumers abroad now use their phones, "You're looking at most of us being always connected here within two years."
The bottom line: You'll be spending more on your phone bill.
"In other parts of the world, the amount people pay in Japan and Europe has gone up," Ryan says.
Ryan and Palmieri speak of music as a natural extension, even though Cingular and Verizon don't currently offer music. Sprint does: Two streaming radio services are available for an additional $5.99 a month on top of the $24.99 monthly subscription to PCS Vision, which is Sprint's name for its ultimate multimedia offerings.
"There's a natural intersection between music and mobility," Ryan says. "People want to carry their music around with them, and we're moving toward making that happen."
But a stalemate between the wireless carriers and record labels may be slowing the move to music downloads on the phone.
The carriers want to charge $3 to $4 per song for wireless downloads, compared with the 99 cents that's standard at most legitimate Internet music sites, says Rojas and others who follow the industry. "They're living in a fantasy world. It's not going to happen. People won't spend the extra money," he says.
For now, consumers can put music directly into their phones without waiting for the industry to catch up, by choosing a pricey phone with a memory card slot.
Models at Cingular, Verizon and Sprint's range from $249 to $469. A 1-gigabyte SD card to store the music costs $75 to $100.
Nokia is working on a smart phone with a hefty 4-gigabyte hard drive, with room for over 1,000 songs in the MP3 format. Nokia says its $500 N91 phone could be in stores by Christmas, and the company is absolutely giddy over the possibilities.
"The beauty is that with so much memory, you can take all the pictures you want and keep as much music as you'd like, and never have to worry about using up the memory," says Nokia Executive Vice President Anssi Vanjoki.
He sees a time in the not-so-distant future when owners of a phone like Nokia's N91 will, upon entering a bar, hear music they like on the jukebox, hold the phone up to record a sample and have the wireless network automatically find the song in its database, along with an offer to purchase. "This kind of spontaneous information is going to happen," he predicts.
People might even start talking about it on their phones.
Contributing: Leslie Cauley in New
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/telecom/2005-05-12-cell-phones_x.htm#
dd:Phone Makers Tout Music Devices, But Who's Listening?
BY MIKE ANGELL
(sorry, should have its own "seperate billing" a good dd...jmho
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
The cell phone industry has taken over the digital camera field, with camera phones outselling stand-alone digital cameras.
Now phone makers hope to do the same thing with digital music.
Some 60 million music players are expected to sell this year. That's less than a tenth of the number of cell phones sold. But it's a big enough market to attract the interest of the phone industry.
Cell phone makers plan to release a range of new products for playing music. The industry is targeting Apple Computer, (AAPL) which has a thriving business selling iPod music players. Phones are coming closer to matching iPods in terms of storage and audio quality.
But the cell phone industry still needs a business model for offering music, analysts say. And it needs a download service that matches Apple's iTunes.
"The technology is there to play music on phones," said Strategy Analytics researcher Eddie Tapiero. "But the business model isn't, and that's what carriers need before this is a mass market."
Nokia, (NOK) Motorola (MOT) and Samsung already sell several models of phones capable of playing music.
Many more are on the way. Nokia and Motorola say half of the new models they release this year will play music.
The phones vary — ranging from inexpensive, basic devices to "music-optimized" models:
• Samsung has a phone with a small hard drive capable of storing 1,000 songs.
• Sony Ericsson's Walkman Phone can hold 250 songs.
• Motorola is planning a joint effort with Apple — a phone capable of playing iTunes songs.
• Nokia just released a phone capable of storing 3,000 songs.
Such phones can cost $300 or more. They have lots of memory, music-playing software and stereo outputs for headsets.
Whether any of them will match Apple's success with the iPod is unclear.
The iPod has excelled in part thanks to a cheap, easy-to-use music download service: iTunes. In fact, iTunes doesn't make much money for Apple. The company mainly uses it to sell more iPods.
And other music services are getting more aggressive on price. Yahoo (YHOO) this week launched a subscription service with a rate of $7 a month.
Unlike Apple, carriers want a profitable music service. They need something that gets people to use their cellular service more — and rack up more charges.
"Carriers will only be interested in selling a product which supports their service," said Muzib Khan, a vice president at Samsung.
One business model under consideration is the idea of renting music. South Korea's SK Telecom (SKM) launched a service along those lines for $5 a month. Since it began last November, 1.2 million customers have signed up.
Customers download as many songs as they want for the flat fee. But they don't own the song. If they stop paying the fee, built-in software stops the song from playing. The service also limits copying of songs to other devices.
U.S. carriers may have a similar plan in mind for their cellular services, Tapiero says.
A successful service would also need a good Web portal so that users could buy songs on their home computers.
A number of small companies have lined up to make such sites for carriers. The services would let users purchase music and transfer it from their desktop computers to their cell phones.
Nokia and Microsoft (MSFT) joined forces with a small company called Loudeye. (LOUD) Loudeye makes Web sites that let carriers offer digital music via Microsoft's music format. Carriers can brand the service as their own and limit where songs can be played.
"Carriers know there's a value in offering online music," said Nokia spokesman Keith Nowak.
New Standards
The industry also is looking for new digital music formats. The most widely used standard today is the MP3. But the MP3 format is old and clunky. And there's no way to keep people from copying and sharing MP3 files.
Cellular music likely will use a format called AAC-Plus. It provides better audio quality than MP3 and offers copyright protection. It also shrinks music files to a quarter of the size of MP3 files, so more songs can fit on a phone. Apple uses an earlier AAC format for its iTunes service.
SK Telecom and Vodafone Germany use AAC-Plus for their download services. AAC-Plus-compatible phones aren't widely available yet in the U.S., but Qualcomm is selling phone chips to support the format. More songs also will need to be formatted in AAC-Plus.
The AAC-Plus standard would help make downloading songs over the air easier, since the files would be smaller.
Most users of cellular music services will likely download songs from their desktop computers — just as they do with iPods. But being able to download a song directly over the air would be a clear advantage for cellular music, Tapiero says.
"It would be much more of an impulse buy to get it sent directly to your handset, rather than just to order it, go to your PC to download it and then play it," Tapiero said.
Ring tones can already be downloaded over the air, and that's helped turn them into a multibillion-dollar business. But MP3 can be up to a hundred times larger than ring tone files.
Need For Speed
Until AAC-Plus becomes more common, most carriers won't have over-the-air download services. Even then, carriers will have to adopt the kind of next-generation mobile networks that are common in Asia and Europe.
These networks — called third-generation, or 3G — carry data at nearly the same speeds as home broadband connections. But 3G is not a mass market service.
"Over the air is better suited for 3G service," said Alberto Moriondo, who heads Motorola's cellular music efforts.
A mass-market 3G service will take time to develop. But the business models, Web portals and new formats are coming fast.
Many expect cellular music service to be the big theme for Christmas 2005.
"The upcoming holiday season should see a wealth of new devices and services," Moriondo said.
http://www.investors.com/editorial/tech.asp?v=5/11
Intel's Otellini Says Desktop Death Brings New Sales (Update1)
April 27 (Bloomberg) -- In a windowless conference room on the fifth floor of Intel Corp.'s Santa Clara, California, headquarters, Paul Otellini points to a poster dominated by a picture of a silicon wafer and a single word: Growth.
Otellini, who is set to take over as chief executive officer in May, has little doubt about his priority.
``We damned well better be a high-tech, high-growth company,'' says Craig Barrett, who is retiring as CEO at Intel's mandatory age of 65 and who commissioned the poster, which is pinned up in 181 Intel buildings in 11 countries.
Living up to Barrett's directive will be Otellini's toughest challenge. Founded by a pair of former Fairchild Semiconductor International Inc. executives in 1968, Intel blossomed into the world's biggest computer-chip maker, giving rise to the region's Silicon Valley moniker.
During the Internet bubble, Intel strayed from its roots, staffing buildings jammed with servers to run Web sites and making digital music recorders and microscopes connected to computers. When those businesses flopped, Intel returned its focus to processor chips, only to find demand for personal computers was slowing.
Now, like information technology icons Hewlett-Packard Co. and Microsoft Corp., Intel is busy writing a next act beyond the desktop PC. For Otellini, 54, that means hunting for sales growth in chips for mobile phones, home entertainment and even computers that store data in doctors' offices. He dubs the strategy ``Intel 3.0.''
`Can't Stand Still'
``They can't stand still,'' says Ian Link, head of information technology investing at Deutsche Bank AG's New York- based Deutsche Asset Management unit, which is Intel's sixth- largest investor, with 110 million shares. ``They are done riding a wave, and they'd better set themselves up for the next wave, or they will be dead in the water.''
Intel's sales growth will decline to 10 percent this year, making revenue about $37.7 billion, and may shrink to 7 percent in 2006 from a high of 50 percent in 1993, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial forecast. Analysts estimate net income will rise 8 percent to about $8.1 billion this year and 12 percent in 2006.
``For the large-cap tech names like Intel, there's a lot more focus on the balance sheet,'' says Ken Carey, who helps manage $105 billion, including about 20 million Intel shares, at Charles Schwab Corp.'s U.S. Trust unit in New York. ``If they're not going to grow the top line, how are we going to be compensated to own these stocks?''
Stock Drop
After reaching a record of $75.81 in August 2000, Intel's shares closed at $23.51 today. Last year alone, the stock tumbled 27 percent after demand dwindled and Intel was left with a record $3.22 billion in surplus chips in the second quarter. Customers weren't buying, and Otellini and Barrett held back or canceled at least five products, including a delayed next version of the flagship Pentium processor.
The delays almost cost Intel an exclusive contract with its biggest customer, Dell Inc., based in Round Rock, Texas. For the first time, the world's biggest personal computer maker considered buying processors from Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Dell CEO Kevin Rollins said in February at the Goldman Sachs Technology Investment Symposium in Phoenix.
``Whenever one of our partners slips on either the economics or technology, that causes us great concern,'' Rollins said.
Texas Instruments' Lead
While Dell pondered -- and then rejected -- switching, Dallas- based Texas Instruments Inc., whose semiconductors run more than half of the mobile phones sold last year, solidified its lead in the handset market.
Intel's baseband chips, the main processors in cell phones, aren't used in a single phone that's on shelves now. Computers -- which are still responsible for more than 80 percent of the revenue Intel gets from its chips -- have yet to find their way into living rooms in meaningful numbers.
Tokyo-based Sony Corp. is hogging space alongside the TV with the best-selling PlayStation 2 game console, which doesn't use Intel chips. The next version of Sony's nearest console competitor, Microsoft's Xbox, will be powered by a chip from International Business Machines Corp.
Otellini has moved swiftly since November, when Intel's board named the 30-year company veteran to take over from Barrett. In January, the CEO-to-be announced the biggest-ever shakeup in Intel's corporate structure. He broke Intel's two divisions, the profitable computer microprocessor business and the money-losing communications chip business, into five units.
`Outward-Facing'
The new setup reflects where the products go: enterprise, or corporations; digital home, which includes entertainment; mobility, or laptops and cell phones; digital health, which includes devices to store medical records; and channel products, or sales that are tailored for specific regions of the world.
``For the first time in our history, the product development organization is outward-facing,'' Otellini says.
In February, Otellini proclaimed another break with the past. He stood onstage at California's Anaheim Convention Center before more than 3,000 employees gathered for Intel's annual sales conference. As a picture of a beige desktop computer beamed from a screen, Otellini asked, ``Is the desktop dead?''
His answer: Yes, at least the way most consumers think about their computers. Otellini wants to move the PC beyond the desk. He predicts Intel will enjoy the same impact in consumer electronics that it has had in computing.
Setting Industry Standards
Intel's strength is that it can set technical standards that a whole industry adopts, which Sony and other companies can't do, Otellini says. Every computer that runs Microsoft Windows also uses hardware specifications set by Intel.
While looking outward for new markets, Otellini also wants to expand Intel's reach among its biggest customers: computer makers. Intel is reviewing data gathered by Dell and other PC companies and then sending engineers back to the drawing board to design chips with the features consumers want.
``The amount of interest and dialogue that Intel has shown around our customer behavior, requirements and needs has increased,'' says Michael Farello, head of Dell's consumer division.
One example of a design that incorporated the insights of customers who buy from Dell and other PC makers came in June 2004. Intel unveiled what it billed as its most important product announcement of the year: Grantsdale, which is a package of chips, rather than a single processor, for desktop machines. The Grantsdale chips, named for a town in Montana, work with the basic components of a PC to produce movie-theater-style sound and graphics, an application Intel previously avoided.
`The Product Guy'
Defining new roles for the PC is one way Otellini intends to exploit his inheritance from his predecessor. The first non- engineer to become Intel's CEO, Otellini has a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of San Francisco and an MBA from the University of California, Berkeley. Barrett earned his Ph.D. in materials science at Stanford University in Stanford, California, and then taught physics there.
At Intel, Otellini started in finance, ran sales and marketing and then headed the microprocessor division. He led the introduction of the Pentium chip, Intel's biggest seller.
``Each of the leaders of the company had a different set of skills that really benefited the company at the time,'' Otellini says. ``I think of myself as the product guy.''
Barrett's Tenure
Barrett was the manufacturing guy. During his seven years as CEO, he spent $33.1 billion on plants and equipment -- more than any other semiconductor maker. He also dished out more than $9 billion to buy Xircom Inc. and other communications chip companies. The purchases will let Intel continue to improve the features it enables PC makers to build into their machines, from wireless networking connections to better graphics for video games, Otellini says.
Otellini's task is to figure out how Intel can secure its place in new devices, keep Barrett's factories full and make a profit from acquisitions, such as the $1.2 billion purchase of cell phone chip maker DSP Communications Inc., that haven't delivered to the bottom line.
In the past three years, Intel's communications unit had a combined operating loss of $2.4 billion. Last year, the unit's loss narrowed to $791 million as its sales rose by 28 percent to $1.09 billion.
Scrapping Clock Speed
Highlighting his emphasis on products, Otellini has scrapped Intel's strategy of designing and marketing chips around clock speed, the measure of how fast a processor performs instructions. Clock speed -- which is expressed in megahertz and gigahertz, or millions and billions of cycles a second -- was a perennial selling point in PC ads.
Instead of pushing pure performance, Otellini is hawking packages of semiconductors such as Grantsdale. He and Barrett point to Centrino, a chip set designed for notebook computers, as the model. Since 2003, Intel has sold $5 billion of Centrino chips, which boost battery life and let notebook computers connect to the Internet through so-called WiFi hot spots.
In the first quarter, sales of Centrinos helped lift Intel's sales 17 percent to $9.4 billion, a record for any first quarter. ``Centrino is a good high bar for us to enter new markets with, and it's one we want to keep squarely in our mind going forward,'' Otellini says.
Otellini pitched his vision to potential chip customers in a January speech at the 2004 International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Standing on the stage of the Las Vegas Hilton's theater, Otellini said most electronics makers took several years to design products and then sold them in stores for five or more years.
`Desktrino'
By contrast, he said, Intel's Centrino-like ``platform'' for living rooms will help them design, produce and market new wares in times typical in the computer world, where fresh models can roll out once a year.
Otellini is creating a new brand for his chip, which people inside Intel are dubbing ``Desktrino.'' His goal is to persuade consumers that whether they buy from Dell, Sony or any other company, they should insist that the device has Intel chips inside. While Intel has had success selling the Intel brand with companies such as Dell, moving into consumer electronics is uncharted territory.
In March, Don MacDonald, head of Intel's new digital home division, showed off examples of what the company is betting will win its processors a place next to the TV. At the chipmaker's semiannual Intel Developers Forum, he demonstrated a prototype PC that fit in the palm of his hand and was the length of the remote control that operated it.
Miniature PC
Such a miniature PC might replace digital video recorders, cable television set-top boxes and audio amplifiers by rolling all of those functions into one device. By 2008, about 25 percent of U.S. homes will contain such devices, according to a 2004 report from New York-based investment bank Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
Intel will have to slug it out en route to the living room. ``With players from the hardware, software, consumer electronics and cable industries all pushing different solutions, competition to supply devices to the digital home is already becoming extremely aggressive,'' Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote in the report.
``The outstanding question is, `Which device will become the central box?''' says U.S. Trust's Carey.
Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., the world's largest consumer electronics maker; Royal Philips Electronics NV, Europe's biggest consumer electronics maker; and Sony all have machines that run living room electronics without using a PC. ``This is a market Intel is trying to help create, and they are in early,'' Carey says. ``There's no front-runner yet.''
`Management Genius'
Otellini arrived at Intel in 1974, six years after the company's founding and a decade before the first PCs began to catch on. One of his jobs was technical assistant to then Chief Operating Officer Andy Grove, 68, who was one of Intel's first employees after founders Gordon Moore and Robert Noyce. Otellini calls Grove a ``management genius.''
Intel designed the technical assistant program to equip up- and-coming managers for the rigors of becoming senior executives, says Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing Anand Chandrasekher, 41, who was technical assistant to Barrett. ``It prepares you for the pressure cooker,'' he says.
In his new role, Otellini says, he's borrowing from his mentor's approach to managing change. Grove used to publicly announce a shift in corporate direction to force employees into following him, Otellini says.
`Strategy by Speech'
``He had a great phrase, which was called `strategy by speech,''' Otellini says. ``He would give a speech externally, which would say where the company is going and everyone inside would say, `Holy smoke, he's serious.'''
Under Grove, who holds a Ph.D. in chemical engineering, Intel made its biggest breakthrough in 1978. Its 8088 processor, a precursor to the Pentium, won a spot in IBM's personal computer, the first mass-produced PC to run on Microsoft's operating system software.
In 1991, Intel scrapped its anonymous numbering system, started naming its chips and paid PC makers to include the ``Intel Inside'' label on their boxes and in advertising.
While few people have seen the postage-stamp-size processor that runs a desktop machine, Intel and its stable of chips rank as the world's fifth-most-valuable brand, behind General Electric Co., IBM, Microsoft and Coca-Cola Co., according to London-based consulting firm Interbrand.
Math Mistakes
Last year's hiccups at Intel aren't without precedent. In 1994, Intel offered replacement chips to owners of Pentium-powered PCs after a professor of mathematics named Thomas Nicely at Lynchburg College in Lynchburg, Virginia, discovered that the processor was making mistakes when doing long-division calculations in limited situations.
Six years later, Intel recalled some Pentium III processors because they forced PCs to shut down when running certain programs. In his book ``Only the Paranoid Survive'' (Random House, 1996), Grove said the 1994 flaw brought home to him how much more consumers expected from Intel after the company had done its best to place itself in the forefront of their thinking about computers.
These days, Advanced Micro Devices, 2 miles away from Intel in Sunnyvale, California, is never far from Otellini's mind. A cupboard in his cubicle is decorated with memorabilia including an inflatable hammer bearing Advanced Micro's logo -- with a meat cleaver through it.
Advanced Micro Rivalry
Advanced Micro has beaten its larger rival to market twice in the past two years. In 2003, Advanced Micro began selling a server chip that processes information in both 32- and 64-bit chunks. Intel, which had argued there wasn't enough software available to support such a chip, relented a year later and updated a version of its Xeon processor to handle 64 bits. A 64-bit chip helps to process data faster and perform complicated tasks such as mining databases.
Advanced Micro also was first with a so-called dual-core chip, which puts two processors on a single piece of silicon, for server computers. On April 15 Intel announced a dual-core chip for desktops, clawing its way back in that market. In October 2004, Intel said it had canceled the next iteration of the Pentium in favor of designing a new, dual-core version.
Advanced Micro's victories may be short-lived as Otellini prepares to swing the meat cleaver again, says Daniel Morgan, who helps manage $6.5 billion, including Intel shares, at St. Petersburg, Florida-based Synovus Investment Advisors. ``AMD gets a narrow window, and they just don't quite deliver,'' Morgan says. ``This isn't a new phenomenon. It's been going on forever.''
`Copy Exactly'
Otellini's weapons include four factories that are able to make semiconductors on 300-millimeter (11.8-inch) wafers. That means Intel produces chips in larger quantities and at least 30 percent more cheaply than those Advanced Micro makes on older, 200- millimeter wafers. Advanced Micro isn't scheduled to begin mass production of 300-millimeter wafers until 2006.
Inside its plants, Intel distances itself from almost every chipmaker, says Mark Edelstone, a semiconductor industry analyst at Morgan Stanley in San Francisco. He rates Intel shares ``equal weight,'' the equivalent of ``hold,'' and says he doesn't own them.
Intel relies on a ``copy exactly'' formula that dictates every detail of a plant's organization. Copy exactly means that the length of hose coming out of air cooling machines below the factory floor, how that hose is coiled and the side of the machine on which it's hung are the same in each of Intel's 13 plants, says Bruce Sohn, manager of Intel's largest factory, Fab 11x in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, 16 miles north of Albuquerque.
Return on Investments
Barrett's insistence on copy exactly means Otellini doesn't have to worry about factory quality or capacity, Chief Financial Officer Andy Bryant, 55, says.
``Paul has an appreciation of manufacturing, but he'll be more focused on, `Now, how do we get a return on these investments?''' Bryant says.
Investors increasingly judge Intel and its competitors on gross margin, the percentage of sales left after subtracting manufacturing costs. Last July, when Intel said it would miss its gross-margin forecast of 62 percent in that quarter, the company's shares tumbled 11 percent, knocking $18 billion off its market value in a single day.
Gross margin was 57.7 percent in 2004. After reporting a 25 percent increase in first-quarter net income on April 19, Intel boosted its forecast for 2005 gross margin to 59 percent, plus or minus a couple of points, from a previous forecast of 58 percent.
Wider Margins
Net income rose to $2.15 billion, or 34 cents a share, from $1.73 billion, or 26 cents, a year earlier. During the past 10 years, Intel's gross margin has averaged 55.4 percent. Advanced Micro's gross margin was 39.4 percent last year, slightly above its 10-year average of 39.2 percent.
Intel's wider margins stem from investments in manufacturing that help drive costs down as well as its dominance of the computer chip business. New products may not deliver similar margins, even if Intel can win orders. That's because customers don't want their own profits eroded by relying on Intel for most of their parts, says Brian Halla, 58, CEO of Intel neighbor National Semiconductor Corp. Intel, thanks to its more than 80 percent market share, has been free to force high prices on PC makers, he says.
``No one wants to get Inteled again,'' says Halla, who worked at Intel for 14 years beginning in 1975. During the 1990s, Halla tried unsuccessfully to compete with Intel in the PC microprocessor business. National Semiconductor now focuses solely on analog chips that manage power and run sound and lighting in electronics.
`Mr. Inside'
To persuade customers to buy, Otellini may have to shift from being ``Mr. Inside,'' the label Barrett came up with when he named Otellini president in 2002. When Otellini headed sales and marketing, he focused on customers.
Under Barrett, Otellini has stuck closer to home, diving into the nuts and bolts of Intel's business while Barrett lived up to his ``Mr. Outside'' nickname by visiting more than 30 countries last year. Otellini's tenure as Mr. Inside made him pragmatic, rounding out the experience required for the CEO job, Bryant says.
In one display of pragmatism, Otellini killed Intel's chip for large-screen televisions last October, nine months after touting it at the International Consumer Electronics Show.
``Intel did what it does best: It took a risk on technology,'' Otellini says, explaining that he canceled the chip because Intel couldn't make it effectively in high volumes. ``It just wasn't scalable in a cost-effective fashion.''
`Ph.D.-ness'
Barrett, in contrast, tended to let engineers win him over based on a project's technical merits, Bryant says. ``Some people were able to appeal to Craig's Ph.D.-ness. That won't happen with Paul.''
Barrett will be promoted to chairman, and Grove will become chairman emeritus. Barrett will continue trotting the globe to tout Intel's technology while the official Mr. Outside duties fall to Otellini.
He's already taken up the mantle. In April, Otellini visited South America. And he appeared beside Cisco Systems Inc. CEO John Chambers, Google Inc. CEO Eric Schmidt and Yahoo! Inc. CEO Terry Semel on the Charlie Rose talk show on U.S. public television stations to discuss the future of the Internet.
Last year, Intel got more than 70 percent of its $34.2 billion in sales from overseas, with 45 percent of that amount from Asia. The U.S. accounted for 32 percent of sales in 2002 and 23 percent last year. Some 12,000 distributors in 110 countries sell Intel products.
Dealers in Iraq
``We have authorized dealers in Iraq,'' Otellini says. ``That was illegal a year ago.''
Developing products to lure customers in emerging markets fits Otellini's vision for Intel 3.0. Last year Intel introduced a machine code named Christea for Internet cafes in Asia, where rows of as many as 1,000 PCs are lined up for Web surfers to tap away on, paying on a per-minute basis.
Technology Intel created for Christea lets a cafe's manager add or remove programs such as video games via a central desktop machine based on a user's requests. The manager can also keep tabs on security to prevent theft of keyboards and computer mice via alerts that come in when someone attempts to remove a component.
``There will be a class of devices that we haven't even seen yet,'' Otellini says. ``The next 2 billion people, as they come into computing, may not have the same disposable income.''
`Not a Nerd'
Pushing into places such as Internet cafes, which didn't exist a decade ago, requires a CEO like Otellini, Deutsche Asset Management's Link says.
``This guy is not a nerd laboratory engineer and is more of a marketing and sales guy,'' Link says. ``The next stage for this company is to move into a broader product set, and that requires someone like Otellini.''
Intel's most obvious failure has been its inability to make headway in the $22.4 billion market for mobile-phone processors. Texas Instruments leads that market, selling more than half of all baseband processors, according to Tempe, Arizona-based research firm Forward Concepts Co. In the total market for cell-phone chips, Texas Instruments beats Intel with a 15 percent share to Intel's 1 percent.
Intel's new baseband processor, named Hermon, is due in the second half of 2005. The transition to phones known as third generation, or 3G, gives Intel an opportunity to break into the market. The new phones let users surf the Internet, shoot short videos and listen to MP3 audio files.
`Call to Urgency'
``We have a year to 18 months to establish ourselves in that business,'' says Sean Maloney, 48, who ran the money-losing communications business. In the reorganization, Otellini folded much of communications into the mobility business, which Maloney now heads.
Otellini says he'll stick with phone chips even while saying they've fallen short of his expectations. After reading reports about new handsets at this year's International Consumer Electronics Show in January, he wrote to employees on his Web log:
``This show was a call to urgency for us to move faster in this arena. This playing field is being defined without our participation at this time. We need to step up and do what we need to do to win in this exciting new arena.''
Otellini is counting on Maloney to persuade the world's biggest cell phone makers, Espoo, Finland-based Nokia Oyj and Schaumburg, Illinois-based Motorola Inc., not only to use Intel chips to run software but to choose the Hermon as well.
Marketing Push
Otellini is also looking to new marketing chief Eric Kim for insights into handsets. In November 2004, Intel hired Kim, 50, from Samsung Electronics Co., the world's third-biggest mobile phone maker. Kim had worked for five years as Samsung's vice president of global marketing and traded a corner office overlooking the North Gate at the end of Seoul's main thoroughfare for a cubicle in Santa Clara four desks away from Otellini.
Samsung stands as the world's second-biggest television maker, behind Sony, making Kim a key ally in understanding the digital home as well. ``Intel hasn't really had to market before because it just rode the wave of PCs,'' Kim says, standing amid poker and blackjack tables at an Intel party during the developer conference.
Tim Allen, who helps manage $5.5 billion, including Intel shares, at Seattle-based Wentworth, Hauser & Violich, questions whether Intel is wasting its time pursuing markets it didn't invent. ``They have a core business that's awesome,'' Allen says. ``It doesn't grow like it used to, but it still brings phenomenal returns.''
`Pulled Muscles'
Intel shouldn't spend its $17.1 billion in cash on research and development or acquisitions unrelated to the microprocessor business unless it can demonstrate a better record in its return on investments, Allen says. Intel has no history of proving it can get returns greater than its shareholders might earn by investing elsewhere, he says.
``Part of being 45 years old is recognizing that you are not 25,'' Allen says. ``If you continue to act like you're 25, you're going to have a lot of pulled muscles.''
Carl Everett, who was general manager of Intel's microprocessor division during his 18 years at the company, says Otellini is correct to look beyond the desktop PC.
``The companies that have it going on today are the companies that have leadership in complete products and technologies,'' says Everett, who went on to head Dell's PC unit before retiring in 2001. He cites the turnaround at Apple Computer Inc. led by CEO Steve Jobs as an example. Otellini's management shuffle is a good first step, Everett says.
Otellini says he has more to do. There's no doubt how he'll be judged. ``The markets expect us to grow, our shareholders expect us to grow and I guarantee you our board expects us to grow,'' he says.
To achieve his mandate, Otellini will have to lead Intel into the escalating battles for the living room and mobile communications, where the world's biggest consumer-electronics and cell-phone companies have already staked their claims.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=nifea&&sid=awa8J_EVMzO8
To contact the reporters on this story:
Ian King in San Francisco at ianking@bloomberg.net
Jason Kelly in Atlanta at jkelly14@Bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 27, 2005 16:06 EDT
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BONUS DD:
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Phone Makers Tout Music Devices, But Who's Listening?
BY MIKE ANGELL
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
The cell phone industry has taken over the digital camera field, with camera phones outselling stand-alone digital cameras.
Now phone makers hope to do the same thing with digital music.
Some 60 million music players are expected to sell this year. That's less than a tenth of the number of cell phones sold. But it's a big enough market to attract the interest of the phone industry.
http://www.investors.com/editorial/tech.asp?v=5/11
dd: Sprint, Intel Team on Mobile WiMax
http://www.pcworld.com/resource/printable/article/0,aid,120771,00.asp
Companies will work together to support the high-speed wireless technology.
Stephen Lawson, IDG News Service
Tuesday, May 10, 2005
Sprint has agreed to work with Intel to help get a mobile form of WiMax off the ground, signaling the mobile operator's interest in the technology for potential high-speed wireless services.
dd: MVNO related White Paper:
http://www.atkearney.com/shared_res/pdf/MVNO_Position_Paper_S.pdf
dd: Beyond 3G: Customer in Full Control
Raghav Sahgal, 6-May-2005
With 3G mobile services rolling out in cities across Asia, operators are poised to deliver on the long-awaited promise of richer content, faster speeds and a wider array of mobile services.
Despite delays in commercial rollouts in Asia and beyond, industry observers believe that 3G subscriber growth is gaining critical mass. Research firm IDC predicts that 3G subscribers across the Asia-Pacific (excluding 3G pioneers Japan and Korea, which collectively boast about 56 million 3G users) will grow from 10.5 million in 2004 to 15.5 million this year.
Behind Japan and Korea, experts have their eyes on China as the next frontier for 3G growth, with projections that 30% of the country’s estimated 500 million mobile subscribers will be using 3G services by 2007.
With the prolonged hype about 3G and subscriber growth projections just beginning to materialise, it is difficult to address the question, “what’s next?”
From CSG’s standpoint, the answer is clear. Operators need only look at the way in which 3G and its even faster SIP and IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS)-based network architectures will radically increase the availability and diversity of always-on content to see a paradigm shift in customer expectations looming on the horizon.
Faster networks also bring increased opportunity. Operators will have the ability to know more about their customers’ preferences, pushing personalised content and up-sell opportunities directly to users’ handsets. In order to do this, one must consider the important role that billing and customer care plays in the management of such rich data and the customer’s overall experience.
Complexities in store
With a vast array of services at lightning-fast speeds, consumer behaviour and demands in a next generation mobile environment dramatically change.
Subscribers not only expect operators to know their preferences for all of the services they use, but also to play the role of financial manager, flawlessly managing all of their prepaid, postpaid and “now paid” accounts concurrently and in real-time.
Let’s use the example of Jane and Jack, two siblings addicted to playing interactive 3G games on their mobile phones. Their operator has stored their game preferences—even their favourite characters —and authenticates Jane and Jack as users and quickly authorising play.
The siblings’ father, Harry, has enforced a monthly limit of US$24 for Jack’s games and Jane’s voice calls. For all other services, he’s established an overall limit of US$36 each month to ensure his teenage children don’t exceed the monthly budget.
With every transaction—from the games they play to voice calls they make—the operator is managing their father’s “financial control plan” by authenticating the user, along with the type and amount of usage against his or her defined thresholds.
This scenario underscores the importance of two key billing and customer capabilities for operators: customer profile management and convergent authorisation.
New type of Profiling
Faster networks require a more holistic view of customer accounts and services. To achieve this, providers must tap into a wider variety of data than before, encompassing CRM, billing, content managers, ERP and possibly many other enterprise applications.
Extracting this information from each system gives the provider a snapshot of the customer, but these snapshots are one-dimensional and disjointed, reflecting how each application was designed and configured, not by how customers see themselves.
Providers must see past internal applications, processes and viewpoints. They must see how customers see their services structured, accounts arranged, invoices organised—in their own terms and their own hierarchies.
This unified approach, “Customer Profile Management” (CPM), goes far beyond traditional customer self-care by empowering customers to browse their details, organise their complex accounts and set up personalised services. CPM enables customers to manage their relationship with the carrier on their own terms, taking the wealth and diversity of enterprise information and converting it into an intuitive and manageable profile.
With this higher level of self-management, customers can go beyond the basic functions of checking bill status and updating addresses to populating their profile with information on how and when they use services.
Looking inwards, customer profiles act as the “single source of truth” of customer data for other applications and users; allowing the enterprise to view customers holistically, enabling true customer focus.
The result: a subscriber’s profile is a composite of subscriber, billing, service and device characteristics that define the subscriber and the sessions they initiate. In other words, the service provider knows down to the individual customer level how customers use their services.
Precise authorisation
With next-generation mobile services, billing requirements also dramatically become more complex. Almost every interaction a customer has with their provider is a transaction.
No longer can the operator simply rely on managing multiple balances for a single user—that is a given. This new real-time world requires the ability to handle multiple, concurrent transactions from one or a group of users simultaneously.
With this new dynamic, transactions take on different characteristics, too. Transactions must be recognised at a very granular level, authorised, have credit limits checked, priced (both pre-and post-event), rated on a variety of dimensions, and debited from a prepaid account or billed.
Taking customer profile management into account, each transaction—whether it be for a consumer or a business—has unique characteristics, thresholds and preferences. Therefore, the operator must have technology to let the consumer control in event time who buys what, when, and how much on multiple levels within the network itself. In other words, they must be able to support a convergent authorisation model.
No other systems in the back-office are better equipped to support convergent authorisation than next-generation billing platforms. By their nature, billing platforms capture the rich data inherently required for this model, feeding mission-critical information to the other systems that need it and rating events in real-time.
Supporting more traffic
With faster speeds naturally comes increased consumption. The International Telecommunications Union predicts that by 2010, operators could see traffic on mobile networks increase 40% per year, largely driven by next-generation mobile multimedia applications.
CSG believes that traffic will actually be much higher, given that an operator must also authenticate and authorise each transaction. Within CSG’s own customer base, operators are already projecting at least a 10-fold increase in the number of events they expect to process in a next generation mobile world.
The good news is that operators no longer need to throw costly, behemoth servers at the problem. To meet these needs, billing vendors like CSG have adopted innovative approaches that leverage a number of smaller, more cost-effective servers in a grid environment. Based on our studies, this approach can save an operator as much as 33% in infrastructure costs while preserving the ability to support spikes in traffic and subscribers.
Tools of the future
The telecommunications industry has invested considerably in ensuring that its systems can support the wave of new customer demands and expectations in an on-demand, next-generation mobile world.
With the right tools to support customer profile management and convergent authorisation requirements, operators will not only be ready to capture new revenue streams from subscribers, but build a loyal following through differentiated service and offers well beyond 3G.
Raghav Sahgal is senior vice-president and MD, CSG Systems, APAC.
http://www.asiatele.com/ViewArt.cfm?Magid=4&Artid=26790&Catid=5&subcat=105
ot: Snagged another block of 1000) eom
dd: Google Buys Into Ad-Supported Mobile Networking
By Pamela Parker
May 12, 2005www.clickz.com/news/article.php/3504516
Google has acquired mobile social networking firm dodgeball.com in a move that could help the search player deliver location-based advertising on cell phones. Terms of the transaction weren't disclosed.
New York City-based dodgeball.com uses SMS (define) and MMS (define) technology to allow consumers to connect with friends and friends-of-friends at nightspots in 22 U.S. cities. Because users text dodgeball to indicate their locations, the company can use that information to target ad messages to users within a specific geographic area who have opted-in. The company says it can also target by date and time, weather conditions, or by city.
In a June 2004 campaign, vodka marketer Absolut sent opt-in subscribers messages that said, "What a gorgeous day! Reply with @venuename telling us where u are. Dodgeball & Absolut will send the closest outdoor patio." When users responded, the company followed-up with information about the closest place where they could enjoy outdoor drinks.
Google declined to comment on the acquisition or on its future plans for the service.
In a message on the dodgeball Web site, founders Dennis Crowley and Alex Rainert characterized the sale as an opportunity for them to build more features.
"We have lots of ideas that we've wanted to work on for a long time, and we're excited that we will now have the time and resources to actually follow-through with them. There's some cool stuff in the works," the message reads. Crowley and Rainert have a history of work in the interactive world. Crowley previously managed mobile applications at Vindigo, and has worked at MTV Networks and ABC. He also served a stint at JupiterResearch. Rainert most recently worked at ECCO design on user interface projects, and he has also worked at agencies Razorfish and R/GA.
ot: At the time also P&G were also talking about buying soap opera production studios cuz in their humble opinion/thought process at the time, they could advertise all their brands or certain ones instead of paying so much ad time and also have a direct pipeline to the consumer and traditionally large female audience and a large part of ther demographic they market many many brands to, etc, blah blah blah.......so I guess I am trying to say, anything is possible with p&G, they also were just getting into Pharmaceuticals at the time too.....ok, enough babbling, one with the trading day...
SOG
ot: In this type of environment, theororetically, so many can be right and so many speculate here, in any event, I'll invite anyone at this point to take a 19.9 whatever stake, so we can have some NEWS!..Lol Btw, P&G Brand Manager for a high profile brand they had just acquired and that I was involved with at the time use to say there are "two types of out of stocks for our brands/products, one at retail and one in a customers cabinets...it was interesting and came to mind when I read that old P&G Article someone posted.....in any event, I think about 95% of population in US has at least one of the P&G brands in their "humble abode" I think, so imo P&G could comme up with so many uses for paperclick once they allocated a full time team of bodies to develop applications and manage the consumer and other type uses for Paperclick if in fact they ever took an interest as hypothesised here recently and a ways back.........but I wonder as they/P&G are always trying to "re-write" retail history focused more on the consumer side than that of retailer (from all the wharton and other books on CPG's and marketing/logistics, supply , demand and distribution, etc etc....and with all their business models and acronyms they are successful at duplicating across markets, etc....well, they could have fun with this type of Paper click tech and a consumers home where they could extrapolate so much info on a products life’s cycle IN A CONSUMERS HOME since the consumer would let them into their home, etc...OK, all this speculating is KILLING ME, I'm through and I, for the record, would also no mind to see Neom license to anyone interested out across their paper click "Platform" extended portfolio of tech/patents, etc,...
I had enough, bring on the NE#WS!!!! Have a good day,
SOG
dd: Report: Mobile Handset Sales Growth To Slow
By Keith Regan
E-Commerce Times
05/10/05 10:09 AM PT
While analysts predict sales of mobile handsets will slow, virtually all forecasts call for the services provided to them to continue to boom, forecasts that are not being scaled back. In fact, some say that one way to look at the recent surge in cell phone sales is as the foundation for a robust wireless services marketplace for years to come.
Customer service work done right, managed right, and priced right. InternationalStaff.net exports American corporate culture and quality standards in the voice programs, email support, and software projects that we manage overseas. Do what you do best. Let InternationalStaff.net do the rest.
Coming off its best year ever in terms of sales growth, the mobile handset industry is set to see slowing rates of expansion going forward as established markets become saturated with cell phone users, according to a new report.
Research firm IDC said mobile phone shipments grew 34 percent in 2004 to a record level of 692 million units, as buyers gobbled up handsets with color displays and those with additional features such as built-in digital cameras.
IDC predicts slowing growth starting this year and "increasingly complex market conditions" in coming years. Other firms have pegged this year's growth rate at 10 percent or even single-digit expansion.
3G Adoption
Longer-term, the widespread rollout of 3G or third generation networks in established markets could light a fire under sales of handsets once again.
However, even with only modest growth, the industry is still producing significant expansion of cell phone use, enough to ensure strong growth in the adoption and sales of wireless services and mobile commerce features such as streaming music, mobile downloads, ring tones and even streaming video.
"The underlying foundation of the mobile phone market is sound, but limited catalysts for 3G adoption will create complex market conditions over the next few years," said IDC research analyst David Linsalata. "The market will continue to expand through 2009, however, offering a significant opportunity for hardware, software and service vendors alike."
IDC says there currently are some 1.7 billion wireless subscribers worldwide and that by 2009, some parts of the world will reach near full market penetration, forcing the industry to make additional adjustments in order to continue to foster sales growth.
Shifting Sands
Amid the slowdown in growth, the handset industry is already roiling with change, with shipments of so-called smartphones rising more than 80 percent in the first quarter, according to one recent report. Those devices still make up a relatively small percentage of all mobile phones in use, but that is expected to change over time as more users adopt multi-function devices.
That evolution is being fostered by handset makers, who are focusing heavily on rolling out upscale smartphones that can send and receive e-mail and instant messages, take and send digital photographs and video, and download and stream digital music.
Those smartphones are seen providing important profit margin protection for wireless handset makers, who have been locked in a price and feature war for some time.
Independent telecom analyst Jeff Kagan told the E-Commerce Times that some companies might struggle with the slowing growth, especially since some handset makers, such as Sony (NYSE: SNE) Ericsson (Nasdaq: ERICY) , have struggled to grow profits and sales even amid the boom in the industry.
"The wireless industry may be growing like crazy in recent years, but that does not mean every company in the wireless space is doing well," he said. "We're already seeing handset makers position for dominance in the smartphone market."
At Your Service
While analysts predict sales of mobile handsets will slow, virtually all forecasts call for the services provided to them to continue to boom, forecasts that are not being scaled back. In fact, some say that one way to look at the recent surge in cell phone sales is as the foundation for a robust wireless services marketplace for years to come, with the coming slowdown a sign of market maturation or even saturation.
Kagan said that mobile carriers have already begun to look beyond providing basic voice service, now that fairly reliable service is a given among most consumers, and are finding willing audiences on a number of interesting fronts, from song snippet downloads that double as ringtones to interactive gaming. "Now that the wireless phone signal is becoming very good, the companies are looking for new reasons to stand out among competitors," Kagan said.
Figuring out what users want, however, and how to deliver it to them, will likely require a period of trial-and-error before that market truly takes off. There are cutting-edge versions of some available, such as mobile video service offered through Verizon Wireless, but few users will adopt such services early on and many will be unable to do so until networks are upgraded to deliver them efficiently.
"Wireless marketing is growing far beyond the quality of the phone call and going toward all the extras that the cell phone represents," Kagan added. "The cell phone is becoming the third screen along with the television and computer. The cell phone is going to become an amazing marketing tool in coming years."
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http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/ebiz/43005.html
dd:PDAs Keep Losing Ground to Smart Phones
Location: FRAMINGHAM, Mass.
Posted: May 11, 2005 4:23 PM EST
URL: http://www.wjla.com/news/stories/0505/227492.html
FRAMINGHAM, Mass. (AP) - Shipments of handheld computers declined for the fifth straight quarter amid growth of so-called smart phones and other devices combining organizer functions with cell phone capabilities, the research firm IDC said Wednesday. Worldwide shipments of personal digital assistants, or PDAs - which lack telephone capabilities - decreased to 1.9 million units in the January-March period. That's a 12.1 percent decline compared with last year's first quarter, and a 30.6 percent drop from last year's fourth quarter, Framingham-based IDC said.
In contrast, shipments of so-called converged mobile devices combining cell phone, organizer and other functions more than doubled year-over-year for the third straight quarter. Shipments of those devices rose nearly 135 percent in the first quarter compared with a year ago to 8.4 million units, despite a 3.6 percent decline compared with the fourth quarter.
"The handheld device market is facing stiff competition in saturated markets, while the converged mobile device market offers opportunities for new growth to handheld device and mobile phone vendors alike," said David Linsalata, an IDC analyst.
Handhelds were first popularized by the original PalmPilot in 1996. But major personal digitial assistant vendors such as Sony Corp. and Toshiba Corp. have recently exited the market because of the switch to converged devices.
In the first quarter, palmOne Inc. the top PDA seller, commanded nearly 33 percent of the handheld market, down from a nearly 38 percent share in the same quarter a year ago. The shrinking market caused palmOne's handheld sales to decline nearly 24 percent.
Hewlett-Packard Co. held the No. 2 slot last quarter with 26 percent, followed by Dell Inc. at 11.4 percent. Acer had 6.5 percent and Medion was at 4 percent.
The first-quarter leader in sales of converged devices was Nokia, with a nearly 65 percent share, up from 50 percent a year ago. The No. 2 vendor was Research in Motion, the maker of Blackberry devices, at 9.2 percent, followed by Fujitsu at 8.5 percent. PalmOne had 4.6 percent and Sony Ericsson had 2.5 percent.
dd: Coming Soon to a Tiny Screen Near You
Erika Brown, 05.23.05
Titans in entertainment and telecom and legions of upstarts are betting billions of dollars that you will want to use your cell phone for TV, music, gaming, gambling, navigation--even Lilliputian porn. Whatever happened to good old-fashioned chitchat?
Lawrence Morrisroe, 27, is obsessed with his new toy. It has a digital camera, video playback, Bluetooth wireless capability, a memory stick and a 3-inch screen. It's how he watches his favorite TV show, The Family Guy. It tells him when the freeway is tied up on his drive to work. He uses it to take pictures in his travels to Australia and Taiwan, zapping the photos to his Weblog so his friends and family can tag along. And his versatile little toy also lets him hear how much his wife misses him--when she calls to tell him so. It's his cell phone. "I can't picture myself without it," says Morrisroe, a Yahoo manager in San Jose, Calif. "I want to be connected 24/7 so I can document my life journey."
Always on and always with you, the cell phone is the most personal and ubiquitous gadget ever devised; 1.5 billion are in use worldwide, and last year 690 million were sold, six times the number of PCs and laptops. Suddenly this high-tech talisman is morphing into something even bigger--a futuristic entertainment system and the most exciting new tech platform since the Internet. Wireless carriers send ever larger chunks of data ever faster across the airwaves. Makers pump out phones with bigger screens, 3-D graphics chips and lush digital sound and video. Newly inspired entrepreneurs and entertainment titans alike are in a mad rush to develop songs, graphics, games and videos to light up millions of teensy screens.
By the Numbers
182 million U.S. wireless subscribers at the end of 2004.
63% Penetration rate of cellular subscribers.
40% Portion of 12- to 14-year-olds who own cell phones.
$4 billion Spent on data services last year.
4%Cellular revenue derived from data services.
2.5 billion Text messages sent each month.
$200,000 Average cost of developing a mobile game.
Sources: Yankee Group; In-Stat; IDC; ITFacts.biz; MobileYouth.
"The mobile phone is the most exciting software platform in history.It's connected to the Internet, it's truly global, and it's an essential part of everyone's lifestyle," says Mitchell Lasky, founder of Jamdat in Los Angeles. His mobile-content shop, which went public on Nasdaq last fall, brings in $40 million a year--and boasts a market cap ten times that sum--selling Lord of the Rings tones and games such as Jamdat Bowling. Cell phone games require no inventory and no shipping and have low development costs, says Lasky, a former videogame executive at Activision. In creating old console games, "I could spend a million dollars before I knew whether a game was fun," he says. "Here, I know after $10,000."
You can already do a wide array of things on your cell--though most of us don't do much yet--and new offerings are exploding. Bored by waiting in the dentist's office?You can race a Lotus in Asphalt: Urban GT or slash monsters in Prince of Persia, both from Paris-based mobile game maker GameLoft. Late for a meeting? MapQuest will beam driving directions to your phone for $4 a month. Smart Traffic by Pharos can tell you when an accident lies in your path. Looking for love? Match.com, which will hook you up for $5 a month, eschews lengthy profiles and cuts to the chase:"Flirt anytime, anywhere," the service advises. Then the two of you can pick a restaurant or movie from reviews from Vindigo for $25 a year. If things don't go well, you can always download nudie pix from Pocket Joy, a $10-a-month service from VTX of Las Vegas.
The hottest new gig is TV. Verizon Wireless in February launched V-Cast, offering dozens of channels with 60-second "mobisodes" of 24: Conspiracy and other farefor $15 a month. Moms can subdue screaming toddlers with miniature replays of Sesame Street. At least 10,000 subscribers have signed up so far, research firm IDC says. Some 300,000 people now get 24 channels of MobiTV from carriers Cingular and Sprint. The service, by Idetic, a Berkeley, Calif. outfit that translates TV signals into phone formats, debuted in late 2003. For $10 a month you can watch pundits joust on CNBC or check out the highlights of Fox Sports' The Best Damn Sports Show Period. The picture is jumpy, at half the frames per second of regular TV, but it's early.
Silicon Valley is gushy and giddy over this new era of "cellevision," a welcome respite from five years of financial rubble since the Net bubble burst. "It's a brave new world," says Dietrich Ulmer, chief executive of Siemens AG's mobile venture arm, which has seeded $26 million in a dozen mobile software outfits and plans to bet $100 million in total. "It feels like 1995 and the emergence of the Internet. We don't see any limitations to innovation."
This boom will be "ultimately more important and will likely offer a larger wave of investment opportunity than the personal computer," says L. John Doerr, the Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers venture capitalist who funded such phenoms as Amazon, Netscape and AtHome. Kleiner and other firms have put $22 million into Digital Chocolate, a mobile game publisher started by William(Trip) Hawkins, founder of gaming Goliath Electronic Arts.
But are U.S. consumers ready for this, and will they even be able to call it up?The wireless wave will be a washout unless the technology gets better and consumers get more comfy with it. Quality content is key: Is anyone really eager to watch former child star Gary Coleman of Diff'rent Strokes in an episode of Love Bytes, an alleged comedy created for the tiny screen?
Americans bought $4 billion in wireless data services last year, Yankee Group says. But 85% of that was for simple text messages--and only one-third of us have done even that. The remainder came from downloaded applications. And 60% of that sliver was for the easiest download of all:ring tones, according to Qpass, which helps carriers bill for data services. Wading through the digital muck to find what you want is poky and exhausting. Grabbing a bite from "Hate Me Now" by rappers P. Diddy and Nas can require six clicks with up to 45 seconds between each--all for a 20-second snippet.
Dropped calls are irritating enough; wait till you lose reception while watching news reports of a verdict in the Michael Jackson trial. Battery power is another problem. And if parents and grandparents use rival cell services, they can forget about sharing a video clip of Suzie's first birthday.
It's all a bit much, even for some stalwart geeks. "I always have the latest and greatest gadget," says Andy B. Arnold, an early employee of the bubble-era consulting firm Scient. He recently bought a Treo 600 and used it to send photos, browse the Net, fire off messages and play "tons of games," he says. "But I never used any of it after the first week." The reception "sucked," so he switched back to his four-year-old Motorola and uses it only for calls. "I'm much happier now that life has regressed to the simple times," he says.
"A lot of people focus on all the whiz-bang stuff, but we're three steps ahead of our customers," concedes James Ryan, a Cingular vice president.
But wait. The first PCs were pretty clunky and annoying, too. All-purpose cell phones are going to get better. The chips will get faster, somebody will figure out how to make the batteries last longer, and clever algorithms will fatten the bandwidth. Someday, the cell phone might be so good that you throw out your iPod, your laptop and your Blackberry. There will be winners in Silicon Valley when this happens, and a lot of losers, too.
Carriers are beginning to see the benefits of the superphone. At Sprint PCS, 8 million of its 26 million subscribers now use data services. Last year they swapped 300 million photos, spending an average of $6 per month--an extra 10% of their bill--on top of voice charges. Verizon's 16.6 million wireless data customers (of 43.8 million subscribers total at the end of 2004) spent $1.1 billion last year, more than double the level in 2003, to get 100 million picture messages and 100 million downloads. Research firm In-Stat says the major U.S. carriers will be spending almost $20 billion in two to three years upgrading to next-generation networks to support all these newfangled services. They have little other choice, given that prices on pure voice services keep going down.
Qualcomm is investing $800 million to build a mobile broadcast video network, which it will offer to consumers sometime next year. Crown Castle International, a cell tower operator, is working with Nokia on a similar video broadcasting service that will help deliver television to mobile phones.
Cell phones in use could rise 40% to more than 2 billion in three years, IDC forecasts. Some U.S. carriers already offer upwards of 350 unique mobile games, with revenue of $345 million last year, says IDC. Sales could soar to $1.5 billion in three years.
The waiting riches are luring the biggest incumbents and platoons of startups. Walt Disney Co. was among the first giants to make a foray into mobile content. Five years ago it started selling simple black-and-white Mickey Mouse screen savers in Japan; today Japan is its biggest mobile market, with annual revenue of $90 million. Disney now sells 6,000 items through 48 carriers in 27 countries, from "Zip-A-Dee-Doo-Dah" ring tones and Simba screen savers to games inspired by movies such as Pirates of the Caribbean. Grown-ups can get their fix of news, sports and soaps through Disney's ABC News, ESPN and SoapNet outlets on Verizon's V-Cast.
ESPN is becoming a "mobile virtual network operator." It will buy excess airwaves from Sprint and other carriers at wholesale rates, then resell the minutes, along with data services, to the public. Disney may launch a second network under the main brand name. "Whether it's a billion-dollar business or a $20 billion business, it's a great opportunity," says Laurence Shapiro, head of Disney's domestic mobile business, formed in 2001. While the Net bubble gave rise to businesses that built something first in the vain hope that customers and profits might come later, in the cellevision revolution, "It's build it, they're already here, and they are purchasing content," Shapiro says.
Disney also sees the cell phone as a marketing tool. To promote its Pixar animated film, The Incredibles, Disney offered downloadable ring tones, images and games. "Every download was another impression for the film. It's a new way to advertise," Shapiro says. Coming soon: movie posters with short codes printed on them so you can buy stuff by phone on the spot.
EMIMusic, likewise, has a new deal with Cingular to debut songs on the cell before an album is released. The first single from Coldplay's next album is called, fittingly, "Speed of Sound," and it now is available in a 30-second sampling for cell phones, two months before the album shows up in stores.
Time Warner's Turner unit makes money in mobile through its ownership of Nascar Interactive. Four million of Nascar's 75 million fans log on to its Web site each month. For three years they have downloaded all manner of graphics to their phones. Now they can follow every one of Nascar's 36 races per season--live. More or less: Turner doesn't have video rights to Nascar races, so cellular fans can watch miniature animated cars whiz around the track on their phones in real time and listen to their favorite driver talk to his coach during the race. Some 300,000 people have signed up. "No other sport lets you be a voyeur like this," says Drew Reifenberger, head of Turner Sports Interactive.
Korea's SKTelecom and EarthLink, the Internet access provider founded by Sky Dayton in the Net boom, are in a $440 million venture to offer cell phone services. Dayton, who runs SK-EarthLink, argues the new business can snag $2 billion in revenue over the next four years. "In Korea people do their banking, make purchases and watch soap operas on their phones," he says. "It's like having a crystal ball into what will happen here."
For a few years now folks in Asia and Europe have used their cells to zap text and video messages, listen to music and watch soccer matches. Wireless content services brought in almost $15 billion worldwide last year, out of a total $93 billion in wireless data revenue, says Yankee Group. Qualcomm says people around the world have downloaded 250 million applications based on Brew, its mobile software platform.
Despite the footsteps of the big boys, the cellevision revolution may be delivered more by pesky upstarts. In five years venture capitalists have put $10.5 billion into wireless-related startups. Enpocket, in Boston, runs mobile dating sites (Match.com Mobile in the U.S. and MyCupid in India) and sells mobile greeting cards. It raised $15 million from BlueRun Ventures, formerly Nokia Venture Partners, and other firms. London-based I-play, which publishes its own games and distributes Electronic Arts titles, landed $50 million from Apax Partners and Argo Global Capital. Sorrent, a gamemaker, hauled in $30 million from New Enterprise Associates, Sienna Ventures and others.
Sorrent, based in San Mateo, Calif. and founded in 2001 by two Electronic Arts executives, originates some titles but prefers to license from big studios. It recently devised a game based on the Robots flick from Fox and Blue Sky Studios. "Carriers gravitate to big brands," says Sorrent Chief Exec Gregory Ballard. He has worked in videogames, online music and digital VCRs but says none of these can rival the reach of cell phones. "We will know we have arrived," he says, "when someone in Thailand is tending his rice paddies and playing one of our games."
Sprint now gets a hundred pitches a week from people eager to sell their wares by cell, says John C. Burris, data services director. "We are not Hollywood executives, nor do we have 100 people checking out new games or music," he says. "We have maybe a dozen people for that. So we have to work very closely with partners that aggregate and bring us content."
Jamba acts as a wireless Wal-Mart for carriers. It rang up $180 million in sales in the second half of last year selling crazy frog tones and flaming-skull screen savers through carriers. Jamba has a library of 50,000 add-ons and handles over a million transactions a day. One game lets you steer an onscreen Ferrari by rotating the phone instead of struggling with a stubby joystick; software behind the camera lens tells the game where you're steering.
The firm, formed in 2000 and based in Berlin, popularized the download subscription model, selling three video ring tones for $6, or $2 a week for a new game each week. Customers type a short code into their phones and the charge shows up on their wireless bill. Carriers snag 25 to 40 cents of each dollar. Jamba, which landed $40 million from Summit Partners, got acquired last June by VeriSign for $273 million in cash and stock.
Mitch Lasky's Jamdat, since launching its mobile gaming service last year, has run 22 million multiplayer sessions. It has almost 200,000 registered users and hosts 30,000 events each week. One big hit is a puzzle game called Bejeweled; the ten top-rated players have each played an average of 23,600 times. (The saying "Get a life" comes to mind.) Jamdat also has landed a coveted license from NeoPets, an online community of 93 million people who design and play with imaginary pets. "The idea is to find something viral and exciting that fits into a five-minute burst," says Lasky. "Our ambition is to become the Electronic Arts of the mobile phone."
Trip Hawkins, the founder of Electronic Arts, hears that refrain a lot from would-be mobile-moguls. "It's ridiculous. EA is going to be the EA of mobile," he says. So he looks beyond videogames at his new outfit, Digital Chocolate in San Mateo. He hopes to create an entirely new genre of addictive phone games. One early effort:Babysitter, a game that lets your toddler push buttons to change images onscreen while listening to "Old MacDonald Had a Farm" and such. Push a digit and steam shoots out of a train or a camel becomes an elephant. Twinkling stars and leaping sheep will soothe the savage rug rat at bedtime.
This summer Hawkins will launch Mobile League Sports Network, a fantasy league letting baseball and football fans swap players and create their own teams. Another game, Message in a Garden, will challenge players to (virtually) plant vegetables and flowers despite bugs, drought and weeds. "I want our customers to be loyal to us, not to the carrier," says Hawkins. "When you make something viral, that's a huge tipping point."
More lucrative than kiddie content:adults-only content. In April the Web site Pokerroom.com began letting cell users play Texas Hold 'Em for real or play money, joining 3.5 million players. Many phones now can surf the Web to get a pornucopia of mini-smut from Unwired Sex, Gratis Ringtone and dozens of other upstarts. One British outfit offers the VibraExciter, putting the silent ring of the polite phone call recipient to imaginative new uses.
"We want to be able to offer customers the ability to get to the content they want to get to and not restrict them unduly," says Cingular's Ryan. "We just don't want it associated with our brand."
The mobile market is so powerful it can bring companies back from the dead. InfoSpace, a holdout from the dot-com daze, used to supply Web portals with horoscopes and weather reports; now it runs cellular carriers' portals, offers mobile content like ring tones and games and stages Tetris and PacMan tournaments. It also supplies tech for mobile content cards (akin to prepaid phone or gift cards) sold at BestBuy and Wal-Mart. In 2004 the company reported $93 million in mobile revenue, 40% of total sales and up sharply from $28 million in 2003. Its stock trades at $32 a share--far below its reverse-split-adjusted peak of $1,305 in March 2000 but well off a low of $4 in September 2002.
In the boom Vindigo raised $24 million in venture money and won wide notice for its city guide for PalmPilots. When the market crashed in mid-2000, founder Jason Devitt pulled back. He laid off 25 workers, half of the staff, and a skeleton crew slowly built up capabilities for Vindigo's flagship product, then added other applications such as MovieGoer, GuyStuff and Celebrity Now. Two years ago he switched focus away from the personal digital assistant market.
"The cell phone market is already bigger than the PDA market will ever be," Devitt says. He sold the company last August for $36.5 million to For-Side, a Japanese mobile media company; he still runs it and still hopes to strike it rich in mobile.
The cell phone offered salvation for Frank Chindamo, a Hollywood screenwriter and producer. In 1987he started shooting short comedy films as a student at Columbia University film school, using grants from HBO.One ten-minute effort, Shoe Shine, featured father-and-son team Jerry and Ben Stiller. Chindamo moved on to filming shorts for HBO, MTV and Comedy Central but in the mid-1990s jumped to the Web, figuring it was the future. He did 26 shorts for a Warner Bros. online site, www.warnerbros.com. He tried shooting for PalmPilots and other PDAs but learned that users didn't want to play.
Now he runs Fun Little Movies, which he started in March 2003 with less than $500,000 in startup capital from the founders and Velvet Steamroller, a film production company. His miniature miniseries, which debuted on Sprint PCS in January, use soap opera actors, struggling actresses and, um, Gary Coleman (in Love Bytes). One series, the aptly named Mini-Bikers, features midgets as crime fighters on micromotorcycles. "Mobile is the fourth screen," Chindamo says, after movies, TV and the PC. He argues that one day it will be every bit as legit. Production costs are $2,000 to $8,000 a minute compared with $1 million a minute for big-budget films. "We're on the verge of something very exciting," he says. "We're going to make a lot of money on this."
http://forbes.com/forbes/2005/0523/064_print.html
ot dd:Intel's Maloney Gets Mobile
Tuesday, 03 May 2005 Written by Alex Dunne
An impressive demonstration of WiMAX power and utility was presented by Sean Maloney of Intel this afternoon, during the third keynote of the day at Interop 2005. Showing live video feeds from four separate locations around Las Vegas over a newly-installed WiMAX network in the city of Las Vegas, Maloney talked with roaming Intel employees and showed what's possible when you combine mobile networking technology and powerful processors.
Before Sean Maloney even took the stage this evening for the third and final keynote of the day, there wasn’t any question what his presentation would focus on. He had a wide assortment of props displayed on the stage, and they were all small: mobile phones, PDAs, laptops, tablets. For Intel’s Executive Vice President and Mobility Group General Manager, mobility is the name of the game.
The keynote started with a video introduction from an Intel employee standing eight miles outside of Las Vegas in the Nevada desert (see photo, right), broadcasting his image over a newly installed WiMAX network that Intel had just deployed in Las Vegas. When Maloney took the stage, he explained that the network was being broadcast from atop the Stratosphere tower along the Vegas strip, and the demonstration was designed to show the reach that WiMAX signals are powerful enough to reach out to the city’s hinterlands.
Three more live video feeds, beamed over the WiMAX signal from around Las Vegas, followed: a woman on golf course with the Mandalay Bay towers clearly visible in the background, a man broadcasting live from an RV driving down the Vegas strip, and finally a live feed from the top of the Stratosphere where the WiMAX signal originates. According to Maloney, this was the first live WiMAX demo that had ever been done.
After the WiMAX demonstrations, Maloney discussed the impact that technology has had on U.S. labor productivity. Up until 1994, the gross domestic product in the United States had seen a relatively constant 1.4% growth per year. In 1994, however, it jumped to 2.4% per annum, which Maloney said was attributed to the growth in IT spending that occurred in the early ‘90s and its impact on worker productivity. That increase in productivity amounted to a $500 billion increase in the GDP. Is that growth over, or will we continue to see it jump? Maloney said he believes that worker mobility might be the next big driving factor in productivity gains.
Mobile workers are just the “road warriors” that most people usually associate with the technology. He said financial traders, retail workers, warehouse employees, and other field employees will benefit greatly from mobile networks. As networks become mobile and devices get smarter and smarter, there will be “great unforeseen consequences”. The implications of a world where people tote around incredibly powerful media processors was demonstrated when Maloney showed a crystal clear, jitter-free image from atop the Stratosphere, and compared it to a similar image that was displaying perhaps just 5-10 frames per second. The jittery image was being generated by a laptop. The jitter-free image, it turned out, was being generated by a cell phone equipped with the latest, most powerful mobile processor. There was an audible gasp from the audience.
The next demonstration showed how simple changes can make a big difference. Maloney showed a cell phone downloading images to a laptop with a single touch of a button, using a BlueTooth connection that was automatically established when the two devices came within range of each other.
Maloney discussed initiatives within Intel to keep laptops compelling. These included:
dual-core CPUs that offer substantial performance increases while drawing low power
technology to extend battery life. Maloney stated that their goal is to allow batteries to power laptop for a full day
better connectivity, via wi-fi, wideband CDMA and EDGE network support
thinner and lighter devices.
Maloney also said that Intel will be working to stabilize their load images, so that IT managers can more easily manage their devices.
Perhaps the most interesting statistic that Maloney related was that of mobile technology adoption by industry sector. Contrary to what many might assume, the laggard in this area are the telcos. Up front are the government and manufacturing. It makes you wonder what government agencies are leveraging it. Law enforcement? Homeland security? National Park Service? Gartner provided the data, for what it’s worth.
For those of us who live on Blackberries, cell phones and laptops, Maloney’s keynote was a very attractive peek into the future.
http://daily.interop.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=83&Itemid=30
BONUS DD FROM LIGTHREADING: Intel's WiMax AntiClimax
MAY 09, 2005
The network equipment used by Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC - message board) in its live demonstration of WiMax metropolitan area technology at the Interop 2005 show wasn't WiMax.
In fact, the "pre-WiMax" infrastructure products used for the demonstration actually contain 5GHz 802.11 radio chips from Atheros Communications Inc. (Nasdaq: ATHR - message board), Unstrung has learnt.
Intel used MPower Communications's broadband wireless network for its Vegas demo. This network uses Alvarion Ltd.'s (Nasdaq: ALVR - message board) pre-WiMax BreezeACCESS VL boxes to provide wireless connectivity.
Intel confirms that it "leveraged MPower's network" for the demonstration. "The products that were used were actually from Alvarion," a company spokeswoman says.
"The whole network was pre-WiMax, it wasn't actually using the Intel [WiMax] chip," the spokeswoman says. "It was a pre-WiMax demonstration of what WiMax can do."
A spokeswoman for Alvarion confirmed that the BreezeACCESS VL boxes were used "for Vegas and Speakeasy's [launch in Seattle] as well." (See Speakeasy Maxes in Seattle.)
But the VL box's radio chips run 5GHz 802.11. That standard -- like WiMax -- utilizes Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) modulation, which is what also makes the technology suitable for pre-WiMax applications.
"OFDM is the cornerstone of WiMax," says Carlton O'Neal, VP of marketing at Alvarion. He says that the VL product will have a lot in common with actual WiMax products when they hit the market.
OFDM, as you'll no doubt remember, works by splitting the radio signal into a bunch of smaller signals that are simultaneously sent at different frequencies to the receiver. Which, in layman's terms, makes for a faster wireless connection.
Alvarion says its product also has a proprietary ASIC on board that deals with media access control (MAC) layer functions.
"The [radio] processor happens to be 802.11," Alvarion's spokeswoman confirms. The firm used "off the shelf" WiFi chips as the radio to get the box to market more quickly, according to O'Neal.
O'Neal claims to have coined the term "pre-WiMax" and he defines it like this: "It's an OFDM product, but it will never be taken to the lab for certification."
"Pre-WiMax really lends itself to a whole set of wireless broadband products," the Alvarion spokeswoman explains.
Indeed, Alvarion president Amir Rosenzweig put it this way in a statement: "BreezeACCESS VL is now the product of choice for U.S. operators wanting to demonstrate and understand the benefits of WiMax capacity and services in anticipation of certified WiMax systems and spectrum being allocated."
Alvarion plans to introduce a 5GHz BreezeMAX product for the U.S market, O'Neal says. The company already has a "WiMax-Ready" 3.5GHz box for markets outside the U.S. "Guys like Speakeasy will just swop the radios out," he says.
Analyst Will Strauss of Forward Concepts Co. takes a jaundiced view of the entire concept of "pre-WiMax" but does note that it isn't only Alvarion and Intel playing the marketing game.
"Everybody is saying that," he sighs. "I can name you five companies that claim to have a 'pre-WiMax' product, which means they use OFDM modulation. Whether they conform to the 802.16a [wireless metropolitan area network] specification is another question. I don't know that there is even a central authority checking."
And, of course, 802.16a isn't actually the specification that WiMax is based on. Fixed-wireless WiMax is based on the later 802.16d specification, while mobile WiMax is based on the 802.16e specification.
Which all begs the question: Does "pre-WiMax" really mean anything anyway?
Alvarion's O'Neal agrees that the terminology can get a bit loose sometimes, but he looks to the bigger picture outside the world of broadband wireless.
"It puts us in a bit of a spin sometimes. But you have to look up a notch," he says. "To a vendor like Intel... it doesn't really matter."
— Dan Jones, Site Editor, Unstrung
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=73534&print=true
Bill Gates Keynote from the Microsoft Mobile & Embedded Developers Conference in Las Vegas
May 10, 2005 9:00–10:30 A.M. Pacific Time
At the Microsoft Mobile & Embedded Developers Conference in Las Vegas, Bill Gates' keynote will focus on the company’s long-term development strategies for mobile applications and embedded operating systems.
Live Webcast:
http://www.microsoft.com/events/executives/billgates.mspx
dd: Powerlunch Suggested Viewing for Neom Junkies:
Bill Gates Keynote from the Microsoft Mobile & Embedded Developers Conference in Las Vegas
May 10, 2005 9:00–10:30 A.M. Pacific Time
At the Microsoft Mobile & Embedded Developers Conference in Las Vegas, Bill Gates' keynote will focus on the company’s long-term development strategies for mobile applications and embedded operating systems.
Live Webcast:
http://www.microsoft.com/events/executives/billgates.mspx
Thanks, eom
ot: I am broke, you wanna loan me some cash???)..lol (kidding)
Anwyay, don't they typically release news occassionally around late morning on Tuesdays est??? I am really reaching to trying to think maybe today like cloud8, but then again, maybe next week, it will be when it will be, simple like that...1...ok, back to work here, have a good day,
SOG
ot: Tuesday Morning State Of A Poster Mind Address: All jmho and for coffee breakk purposes only...Morning cofee kicked in fwiw....By the way, "we're in the desert" as an old friend once told me, this at times is a good thing, healthy pullbacks (although more volitile than Mt St helens on a bad day)and lots of good dd to lead us to speculate ourselves to death while lending the intoxicating thought that we some how can make this pot of water boil before the laws of physics can allow it to...lol ,...btw, we can speculate to death, but for whatever reasons, if mgt cant or don't think it is proper time to release news, well then they can’t...lol, simple like that.......This is typical and again, like woogs said, even if one or two of the things he listed below come to fruition, well then, we are on our way to whatever it is you want to think we will be at this point and tailored to your individual investment styles, etc....iow, off to the races.......another thing is that I see many mention volume relative to price drops is not totally Kosher (ie a few mil shares and bamm, a 12-20 % drop then rise, hence we are dealing with MM's and yes, traders (don't get offended short term renters but a reality and please, I understand this is a melting pot and all kinds get attracted here).....and thru all this (false posters, predictions of the earth becoming flat and the sky falling if we don't set a stop loss, we remain above .50 which a month ago seemed a heck of a lot further away eh????..Then we went on our intoxication cruise to Cancun with all the new "how rich am I going to be" scenarios, lol...imagine if glassy could draw an investor hub neom emotions graph the past month)...In any event, some even frustrated to find we averaged up a lil and then it pulled back amongst all these so called "innocent and self proclaimed longs" comments....and imo, hasn't there been a lot of "accumulating" relative to selling the last 30 or so trading sessions...
So where does all this leave us??? Right here:as woogerbear (btw, where did he get that handle?)"...I don't think the shorties oversees are even aware that this is not a typical BB stock IE. Virgin Settlement, 20% Partner (possible Microsoft od Google),12SNAP, Interpublic Group, Martin Corpus, Intel and SAIC..."
Have a good day,
SOG
ot: btw, holding well avbove .50, nice base imo...anyway, once news hits we'll be fine...
Btw, imagine waking up tomorrow or a few weeks from now and we're mentioned as part of XXXX companies operating system for a new mobile platform or as integrated as a application/feature on some mobile sowtware preloaded package,etc...., whatever the alliances we are about to hopefully embark on....ok, have a good one...
SOG
dd: Microsoft aims to be cell phone 'Survivor'
Microsoft's approach to the mobile device market is a lot like the "Survivor" credo.
Ina Fried, May 09, 2005
http://www.zdnetindia.com/news/international/stories/121533.html.
Microsoft's approach to the mobile device market is a lot like the "Survivor" credo.
On the popular reality TV show, contestants are advised to "outwit," "outplay" and "outlast" their opponents. Microsoft is aiming to do all three, though it may well succeed if it only manages the last of those tasks.
The software maker is expected next week to introduce Windows Mobile 5, the next version of its operating system for cell phones and handhelds. The OS, code-named Magneto, is the latest in a string of software releases that highlight Microsoft's attempts to take on rivals including PalmSource and Nokia.
"The business is actually doing fine and has had remarkable growth, but we're still way way the underdog there," Windows chief Jim Allchin said.
In the past, Microsoft has created different versions of its mobile software, each designed to run on a particular class of device. There were smart phones and Pocket PCs and even Pocket PC phones, but within a given category, all of the devices bore a striking resemblance.
A key goal this time around was allowing for more design variety. In an April interview, Allchin said the result would be an array of new products, some of which he called "amazing."
When it comes to the mobile-device market, analysts credit Microsoft with showing staying power. Its first devices were significantly less popular than those from Palm. The operating system had its first hit with Compaq's iPaq and eventually garnered a significant chunk of the handheld market. Meanwhile, a longstanding effort to break into phones is starting to bear fruit after some noteworthy stumbles.
"Microsoft has always been committed (to) improving the Windows Mobile experience," IDC analyst Kevin Burden said. "With each new version, they find new things they want to make better."
The company has seen its growth pick up, as well, although the mobile unit is still a tiny part of Microsoft's overall business and the division continues to lose money. Last quarter, Microsoft saw mobile-unit revenue zoom up more than 30 percent from a year earlier, to $80 million. In particular, Microsoft saw its licenses of Windows Mobile for network-connected devices more than double from last year.
While not commenting specifically on the upcoming OS release, Burden noted that Microsoft has shown its commitment to building an operating system that can be used for all manner of mobile devices. He noted that Microsoft's move comes as some companies, such as Sony, have pulled out of the slow-growing handheld market.
Imagining Magneto
As for what's in Magneto, handheld enthusiast sites have offered some indications, including one review of a leaked version of the operating system.
The review describes a number of new features, including an improved one-handed navigation of the device, a more powerful version of the mobile Word program, a viewer for PowerPoint documents and the ability to add photos to contacts allowing for photo caller ID.
A Microsoft representative declined to comment on the features or the timing of Magneto's release beyond what executives have said.
In an interview last year, the man charged with improving Windows Mobile said one of his main priorities was improving the overall quality of Microsoft's mobile operating system.
"We spent a tremendous amount of engineering resources in the last few months to make quality and stability the highest priority," said Ya-Qin Zhang, the former head of Microsoft's China research lab who now serves as a vice president of the company's mobile device unit.
Another important feature is making sure Windows Mobile-powered devices can seamlessly move from one wireless network to another.
"The important thing is to make sure that there is seamless roaming and handover and a consistent experience," Zhang said. "That is a critical technology that we need to enable."
Although some have said Microsoft is trying to position itself as a BlackBerry killer, company Chairman Bill Gates doesn't seem to be aiming for a knockout blow.
"There'll always be tons of operating systems," Gates said in a recent interview with gizmo site Engadget. "We're trying to make the best software we can and we have no shortage of ideas where we can make that phone way better than it is today."
The company has also made a number of deals on the mobile side that seem to reflect that view. On the one hand, Microsoft has struck a deal with Research In Motion to allow the BlackBerry to run Microsoft's corporate instant-messaging technology.
At the same time, Microsoft is trying to compete with RIM both through devices running Windows Mobile and by licensing server technology to devices that run rival operating systems. Microsoft has licensed its ActiveSync technology to erstwhile OS rivals PalmOne and Symbian.
Another area analysts see as key to being taken seriously in the cell phone business is making sure the product is attractive to cell phone carriers such as Sprint PCS and Cingular Wireless. The operators of cell phone networks, more than the device makers, act as a gatekeeper to what makes it into the hands of businesses and consumers.
"It's really important for them to align their OS with the needs of carriers," said Ross Rubin, an analyst with The NPD Group. In particular, Rubin suggested Microsoft should support making changes to its operating system on the go, as well as establishing a platform for all manner of sales.
Microsoft seems to have realized this early on. The company has struggled to get many of the leading cell phone makers to embrace its operating system, but it has managed to get devices, often made by contract manufacturers, onto top-tier carriers' networks.
Analysts also point out that Microsoft doesn't have to get everything right this time around. Said IDC's Burden, "The next edition of Windows Mobile is certainly not going to be the last one."
dd: Yahoo!: Display Ads Trigger Online Search
by Gavin O'Malley, Monday, May 9, 2005 8:00 AM EST
ONLINE DISPLAY ADVERTISING APPEARS TO have a significant impact on consumer search behavior, according to a study Yahoo! plans to release today. For the report, Yahoo! conducted a three-week study of the search behavior of about two million consumers, half of whom were served Harrisdirect's display ads (standard rectangles and skyscrapers), and half of whom were not. Dynamic Logic collected the responses to display advertising, while the Yahoo! internal research team examined the search behavior.
The consumers who were served display ads conducted 61 percent more searches on keywords related to Harrisdirect--that is, those keywords purchased by Harrisdirect for search marketing purposes. Also, the group that was served the display ads clicked through on Harrisdirect-related terms at a rate 249 percent higher than consumers who were not exposed to the ads, and clicked on links leading to the Harrisdirect site at a rate 139 percent higher than those not served display ads.
Richard Kosinski, category development officer for financial services sales at Yahoo!, said the company plans to further study the relationship between search and display advertising. "Because the marketers we work with have so much riding on the investments they make, this study was the first of many we plan to conduct across different verticals to examine exactly what impact display and search advertising have on each other," said Kosinski.
A Yahoo! spokesman also said the company wasn't yet ready to draw any general conclusions about the relationship between consumer search behavior and display ads.
dd: Gates speech peppered with politics, predictions
By Brier Dudley
Seattle Times technology reporter
If you're a newspaper reader, you may want to save a copy as an historical artifact.
Within six to eight years, you'll probably be getting news from hand-held computer instead of a paper or a magazine, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates said yesterday at a conference of business journalists in Seattle.
"We believe that more and more of the things that you've read on paper you will read online because they'll be easier to find, they'll be more up to date, they'll be richer in terms of audio, interaction and things of that nature," he told the Society of American Business Editors and Writers.
In a speech peppered with predictions, politics and digs at Google and Apple Computer, Gates also said he wished that Microsoft had never used stock options to compensate employees.
"I actually regret that we ever used them," he said, adding that "the approach we're using now is just a better approach."
Options are now frowned upon by investors, but in the late 1990s they transformed the Seattle area, funneling up to $8 billion a year into the economy, raising real-estate prices and creating a new class of young and often philanthropic millionaires.
Microsoft dropped its options program in 2003 and now grants smaller packages of stock awards that are redeemable over time.
Gates was not available to elaborate, but his comments came after a weekend spent with his friend Warren Buffett, a longtime critic of stock options.
The revelation resonated in Seattle, where Microsoft options made the last economic boom and recession more extreme, said Roberta Pauer, the state's regional labor economist in Seattle. She agreed that it would have been better if they were never used.
"It might feel good at the time, but it is never good to have an overheated economy," she said. "It's like too much cotton candy at the fair."
Gates also reiterated his concerns about the U.S. education system and post-9/11 immigration policies that he said make it more difficult to attract foreign talent.
He urged the journalists to report on opportunities created by globalization and not just on job losses.
Discussing future technology, Gates said Microsoft will emphasize the high-definition capabilities of its new Xbox console, which is to be unveiled this month, but the era of widespread high-definition video is still approaching. High-def display volumes won't surge until prices fall in about four years, he said.
Microsoft is also working to make computers more portable and better tools for communication. He said its software will reduce the number of "communications identifiers" such as e-mail addresses and phone numbers that people use.
Phones in the future will display an image of the person you are trying to reach. The image will indicate whether the person is at home or work and other information about his or her "presence," so you can decide which mode of communication to use — phone, e-mail or instant messaging.
"You will just pick the verb, but you'll only have one noun for that person instead of the many that we have today," he said.
A highlight of the next version of Windows, code-named Longhorn, is a user identification system that could move toward this vision, but it remains to be seen whether users and companies will embrace Microsoft's system.
In a backhanded slap at Google, Gates said online search will continue to improve. "Instead of it being a treasure hunt it will actually give you answers," he said.
Gates also said that while Longhorn and Apple's new Tiger operating system have similarities, it's obvious to him which system he's using.
"You can always tell whether you're on a Mac or whether you're on a PC," he quipped. "Take your applications and stick them in there and see if they run."
Brier Dudley: 206-515-5687 or bdudley@seattletimes.com
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002260804_gates03.html
Bonus dd:
http://www.technewsworld.com/story/news/1230033YUBQ0.xhtml