Empire Building 101
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The deal encompasses two varieties of Kantai’s patented cactus cigarettes the low nicotine cactus cigarette contains a small amount of tobacco among its blend of cactus, honeysuckle and ginkgo biloba leaves. This cactus-derived cigarette lowers tar and nicotine content by 70%. Whereas the zero nicotine cigarette is made without any tobacco, according to Kangtai Biotech It offers ‘taste and enjoyment’ that is equivalent to regular cigarettes.
China Kangtai CEO Jinjiang Wang commented on the potential market for the cactus cigarette market, while emphasising the deals ability to ‘fast track’ their products development;
The last line here talks about fast tracking their product developement. IMO, appears we've got more happening that has NOT been PR'ed or even talked about. Very interesting,,,comments welcome.
GEOInvesting adds to position. I;ve followed GEOInvesting very seldom do they add to a position. Have they been sandbagging and acccumulating before an update? CKGT is the only GEO alert recently where the update says GEO team adds to position.
http://www.geoinvesting.com/companies/ckgt_china_kangtai_cactus_bio/alerts
http://geoinvesting.com/activity/geoalerts.aspx
CKGT/ Cig Naysayers
China Kangtai CEO Jinjiang Wang said, "China has about 390 million smokers, accounting for 30% of global smokers. Our cactus health-preserving cigarette market represents a huge growth opportunity in China. Our strategic alliance with a cooperative cigarette manufacturer enables us to fill orders quickly with short production runs and to reduce requirements for fixed asset investment."
China Kangtai CEO Jinjiang Wang said, "The cactus cigarette market shows huge potential for growth in China. China has about 390 million smokers, accounting for 30% of global smokers. Our revolutionary product can not only capture a significant portion of smokers, but also promote consumer consumption in our other health products such as nutraceuticals, nutritious food, health and energy drinks, beer, wine and liquor. We expect the launch of our cactus health-preserving cigarettes also will improve the brand name and reputation of our company."
Jinjiang Wang, Chief Executive Officer of China Kangtai Cactus Biotech commented, "Cactus-based products are well-received by the market in China and show huge growth potential. China Kangtai will continue to develop new products to meet the demand of the consumers, while penetrating the markets with its existing products."
http://www.tobaccoasia.com/industry-spotlight/150-prickly-smoke
The second quote talks about not only getting a significant portion of smokers but talking about brand recognition and reputation. This certainly doesn't sound like a wait and see product to me. Especially noting what all has been accomplished in the last 3 years. This came out with the launch announcement in Sept/ 09
Agree 100% with you pennyman. For the record they did .12 q4 last year. From CSykes:
I don't really believe CKGT will achieve a $.40 EPS for 2009. I can't see $.13 EPS in last quarter. I also think CKGT will miss that guidance and since the company is trading well above book it will cause a short term sell off which will need to recover.
CSykes, While I respect your opinion on CKGT.OB you have totally put blinders on. You have assumed everything is going right for SIAF and nothing for CKGT. The points you make have all been addressed on growth which managment has pegged at 30% without cigs. What you are saying is earnings will be negative on a q4 comparables. I believe if you took the time and done the extensive research on CKGT you would change your tune. CSykes we will have to agree to disagree on CKGT. Again, why do think think they will have a negative comparable when Q4 is the strongest Q for the last 3 years. Please enlighten myself and the board as obviously we/I am missing something. Thanks for all the DD on SIAF.
That puts SIAF at around a 5 P/E moving forward and currently a 7.5 P/E for 2009 guidance.. whereas CKGT is trading a 10 P/E currently.
I don't understand how you have CKGT with a forward PE of 10 with earnings of .40 for 09. Please explain. I do have 5k of SIAF as you have made me a believer but CKGT is much safer IMO and starting to gain traction. Revenues are growing very nice.
If there is only 2.5 mil in the float this is wrapped tighter than tree bark! With that flost it should rocket after the Jan. CC. AS long as management doesn't pull the same move as another small CMC where management owned over 50% and offered 1/3 and going private. Hopefully management at SIAF take away any uncertainies from PK;s.
Agree but CKGT.OB is tied into the largest brewery in China and growing the alcohol business very nicel.I currently own 5k of SIAF. On a further note what is the o/s with SIAF.PK I think that managemnt owns a huge amount so I am alittle skeptical abiut the share structure and the amount traded with the amount purportedly owned by people on this board alone. Thanks for all the DD you provide.
CSWG-Warren Buffet is very clear. If you can't explain the business within 2 minutes stay away. The same way with financials... this looks complicated and probably a lot of unknowns and thus the word avoid comes to mind.
It is starting to look like it. I posted on the Yahoo board and 20K went through within 10 minutes. I thought we would see $3 this week but obviously not. Now which is better CKGT or SIAF in the next 12 months? This is not an easy answer as they appear to both have a risk/reward that is no less than outstanding...Steven
It would be nice if Glen would do a write-up on CKGT.OB as it was only casually mentioned in a previous article. Everything has changed to such an extreme and other than a little banter going back and forth here and Yahoo. This is my #1 holding with only a few shares in CSGH.OB and SIAF.PK thanks to this board. In all reality what does the people on the board think an uplist to CKGT.OB would do? They have better results than BSPM.OB with less dilution yet really get no respect. They are much more diversified with many product releases coming. I do not understand...any comments welcome...Steven
Congrats KIK...I'm happy when I finish in the top 10 and to think you won twice. Great job!
This article is from Rodman& Renshaw in Sept. Does not give launch date but same details as Hawk update. Not sure if I read or heard someone talk about Q1 release.
http://www.hawkassociates.com/images/sce/09_12_14_CKGT.pdf
This article speaks of the $4.4 Mil in feed for 2010. Will do some more digging later and post.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Kangtai-Cactus-Biotech-bw-2309101773.html?x=0&.v=1
Yes you did. I brought that up awhile back and mentioned it. I believe $4.4 Mil is the forcast for 2010. You are probably correct as far as 2011 when revenues reach their projected 24 Mil on feed. Although I think they will do much better than their public projections. CPQQ.OB & BSPM.OB diluted much more than the 2.1 mil shares CKGT.OB did yet we get NO respect. The old cliche "Under estimate and over deliver" certainly comes to mind.
http://www.hawkassociates.com/images/sce/09_09_04_CKGT.pdf
Rodman & Renshaw
CKGT.OB update is nothing but a rehash of Rodman and Renshaw in Sept. other than mentioning land purchase. Reiterated afew PR's from cigs and hog feed. There is no revenue projection for Q4 other than the previous forecast for hogfeed and cigs. I like the fact that they complied newer PR's into a single research with all DD. But to infer this is an update is totally false...Steven P.S. Nothing new from what I see!
tnzalu where are you coming up with $21 Mil for 09? WE've already done 18Mil for the first 9 months. Q4 of 08 was $6.3Mil. With a 30% growth rate that comes to $8.2 Mil +330k for hog feed +220k for cigs. for $8.8 MIl I believe 9.0Mil will be much closer. 18+9=27Mil.
http://www.geoinvesting.com/companies/ckgt_china_kangtai_cactus_bio/alerts
Certainly nice to know that GEOInvesting is adding...cheers...Steven
http://www.geoinvesting.com/companies/ckgt_china_kangtai_cactus_bio/alerts
WE will probably get an update soon. I like the fact that they are buying at these prices. Very encouraging...cheers...Steven
Technically we should consolidate in the $2.40's to $2.50's after a 30% run from $2.00 However, this is looking less likely as IMO we see $3 very soon possiblythis week as volume is very strong and interest is growing rapidly. This remains the cheapest of all AMIGOS bar none. There is some serious accumulation going on here. With this increased interest the 150k being offered every 2 weeks will NOT be a problem. If my DD is correct this moves much quicker and faster than many here anticipate. Cig news will blow the cork here and many of our regulars on the Chinese microcap board will be left behind settling for pennies. Surely we will hear from the chartist again very soon.CKGT.OB will be battling BSPM.OB and CPQQ.OB price wise soon...Steven
Right, Wrong, or Indifferent added more today. Something is obviously up and it's good. Tape tells it all and that's how I see it. Any views or comments welcome...Steven
Today should be very intersting especially the open. Without news we onsolidate in the $2.20's -2.30's. With news we could blow through $3 in a heartbeat. With news $2.80 close. Without $2.30 comments welcome.
I believe in the old Buffet..."Put all your eggs in one basket and watch it closely." Currently over 90% in trading account. Unfortunately, work 401K is very limited. Good luck to all and once again thanks Pappy as I lost a fortune once and it appears I;ve another one in the making. Currently up 1400% this year. GLTA...Steven
I;m not sure about the 1.75 although we will probably drift. IMO, more likely to be arounf 1.90 Our problem isn;t the selling pressure but the lack of buying. Nobody wants to part with shares as the sky is the limit. This has been and will continue to be my #1 holding. I still believe $3 will be very soon as this is one of the very few chinese micros with a proven growth model and a history. It's not contingent upon any event happening such as new product releases as they will grow 30% without any new products with minimal debt. With new product releases I expect $6+ within a year. With decent acceptance of the cigs I think $10+ within 18 months. IMO, the risk/reward is much better than BSPM.OB CPQQ.OB, CSR and NEP. We should do 75 cents a share minimum next year with a possible listing. Show me a better stock fundamentally at $2 with this potential. TA weakening is the only negative along with being news sensitive...Steven
I've sent 3 e-mails each coming back stating the mail box was full. This was about 2 weeks ago. My last e-mail went through exactly one week ago. I'm no longer convinced we get a PR. That don't do fluff PR's. They already announced expected revenues from hog and cigs. I've never seen thenm PR the other products released but the original release.
I wsn't happy about this but then again many times we get the PR for earnings and then some people want to wait for tne 10Q for clarification. They clarified and it was all good. IMO, we will see a PR this week and hopefully today. It should be very good! What we don't need is production delays.
The reason I asked is because I sent 3 e-mails that came back as undelivered because mail box was full. However I sent one Wednesday and that did not come back. Can you share the questions you asked and the reply. Also did you call or e-mail...TIA
Good grab CSP. I bought 2,500 at $2.10 today. With todays volume it appeared the break-out was today. Looks like we are having some very good consolidating. Once this is over we could go up quickly especially if the purported PR is positive. At first I didn't think the investment group getting these shares were selling. I believe they are selling which can almost be an expectation from this group as their history indicates. With that said this is probably a huge mistake as I feel this goes north of $5 next year and with a 13% discount they could easily make 200% plus. within a year. Has anyone asked management about spending some monies and start marketing this company. Rodman & Renshaw while doing a very good job wasn't enough. If they were to do this without a doubt they would get a higher price for the 2.1 Mil shares which would ultimately give them more money for the expansion.
CSP,The good thing is we will not see the tax loss selling we normally see from about Oct to yearend. IMO, we will see a rebalancing of portfolios. You are probably correct as investors re-shuffle some of the big gainers into the low PE stocks. Also would expect many of the stocks mentioned here such as BSPM.OB CKGT.OB CPQQ.OB to name a few who have had nice run but the growth is expected to accelerate with earnings growing proportionately. Thanks for all your input...Steven
Anybody received a reply from Susan at hawk Associates?
Sure hope so! I bought 2k more after selling alittle NEP.
I do know ckgt gapped up from $1.75 when they released their excellant 3rd qtr numbers. To my knowledge none of this crap was even posted until after that time.
You can well guess what I think was the reason for all these allegations without merit at this time.
Agreed Pappy and I too, have not posted my thoughts regarding this issue and the real culprit!
Remember those feed sales do NOT include cigs, new product launches for 2010, not to mention they are now involved with the largest brewery in China. IMO, obviously somebody really has an axe to grind. There very well could be an investigation because of a bitter competitor or disgruntled ex-employee. Remember we have had 3 more patents since June 30, 2009 approved. You don't go on a roadshow and then get a credited investor to buy $3 Mil worth of stock for the roll-out and a MAJOR expansion. Q4 is going to blow everybody away with HUGE numbers.
Furthermore I suggest everyone to reread Rodman & Reshaw slide show of CKGT.OB for Sept. 02, 2009 It was as of this date from June 30, 2009 we had a large increase of employees. My guess is we are looking at an additional 40 more by yearend. Look particularly at slide #18/30 at feed and additives. The total market share is $2.4 Billion projected for 2010. Out of this CKGT.OB expects 1% which equals to $24,000.000 I'm not really sure if this includes the chicken feed to be launched or not. This includes nothing else. Unlike other posts this can be substantiated by going to the web-site and be certain who they are talking about. It can not be copied so therefore I'd suggest go there. My understanding it is not going to be there much longer. Before you get spooked remember this PR:
"The Company has also entered into a long term cooperation agreement related to the research and development of animal feed with The State Ministry of Agriculture Feed Industry Center. This cooperation combines science and technology, full range equipment, and will allow the Company's scientific research personnel to collaborate with the information resources of The State Ministry of Agriculture Feed Industry Center."
"The combined development teams will further study animal nutrition and immunology, which have been the basis for the development of cactus feed and cactus feed additives with different formulas. The success with animal studies led to the development of the products that the Company will market in short future. The parties will further study this area in order to develop additional products."
"I talked with the police guy yesterday again, it was a long conversation. In a nut shell, he doesn't know whether the company violating law(with exact the same name as CKGT) is CKGT. But he has a suspicion that it is. Also there are other company's using the CKGT's products in similar scams. He said he will know for sure in about 2 months and ask me to call back then."
You make no sense. First you have a quote from a friend that he has no idea. Then in the next sentence he has a suspicion that it is CKGT.
The friendly police officer thinks it is the same company and then you are of a different opinion. So you don't believe his suspicions either. This is sounding more and more like rotten eggs and not on CKGT's part. He has a suspicion and will get back in two months. What kind of crap is this? Furthermore, when an investigation is going on I hardly doubt the police department is going to tell anything. IMO, this is all crap and as another poster said why so many posts from a new poster who has about 50 posts in his 5+ years history and 40 of them on CKGT in the last month?
Anyone get a reply from Susan at Hawk?
ITEM 4. CONTROLS AND PROCEDURES
(a) Evaluation of Disclosure Controls and Procedures
We maintain disclosure controls and procedures that are designed to ensure that information required to be disclosed in our Securities Exchange Act reports is recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the time periods specified in the SEC's rules and forms, and that such information is accumulated and communicated to our management, including our Principal Executive Officer and Principal Financial Officer, as appropriate, to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosure. In designing and evaluating the disclosure controls and procedures, management recognized that any controls and procedures, no matter how well designed and operated, can provide only reasonable assurance of achieving the desired control objectives, as ours are designed to do, and management necessarily was required to apply its judgment in evaluating the cost-benefit relationship of possible controls and procedures.
As of March 31, 2009, we carried out an evaluation, under the supervision and with the participation of our management, including our Principal Executive Officer and Principal Financial Officer, of the effectiveness of the design and operation of our disclosure controls and procedures, as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Based upon that evaluation, our Principal Executive Officer and Principal Financial Officer concluded that our disclosure controls and procedures are not effective as of March 31, 2009. In course of making our assessment of effectiveness of internal controls over financial reporting, we identified some material weakness in our internal control over financial reporting. We lack sufficient personnel with appropriate level of knowledge, experience and training in the application of accounting operation of our company. This weakness causes us to not fully indentify and make all accounting adjustments in time.
Not only unaudited but warning bells and sirens going off. This is from their last filing in May! Again this is CDBT which is why I sold in the .60's This totally smelled unlike CKGT IMO. Yes, it would not be smart to bury my head but atleast read 10Q, K's and all filings. Obviously CKGT dumped the shady auditors and moved on. Until I hear from credible sources I remain unconvinced. stillstephen this is not directed to you so disregard and thanks for all your DD as it appears very credible.
17
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(b) Changes in Internal Controls
This will be my last post pertaining to any illegal activity purhaps perpetuated by CKGT.OB management. I read the whole 10Q from CKGT.OB's existance up to recently and find no impropiate behavior. All filings have been current and the expansion is intact. The financings have been well detailed throughout CKGT.OB's history. The last financing with the LLP has an investor who is locked into a minimum of $1.5 -3.0 Mil and they weren't smart enough to talk to the policemen on the street. Along with this the same accredited investor has made a small fortune in Chinese microcaps doing the same thing on less terms. While being open-minded can be a virtue it is not prudent with the facts and proof provided. This chapter is closed for me as we have listened to this poster talking about CXYI.PK which was pink and not reporting and then CDBT.PK which is also pink and not reporting. Last I knew CKGT.OB was filing timely albeit it with a restatement that revised prior earnings upward and increased its employee count by almost 50% in the last 5 months. If I'm not mistaken they are connected also which is obvious with 18/30 patents.
CSP you say they are bashing nobody but the fact remains they are bashing management and its integrity. Before you scream fire in the theatre you really should be correct. I;m just not convinced and then you have somebody who has never posted before on this board respond. I really am skeptical here based on the timing.
You remember correctly but they have not filed since May of this year. This by itself is indicative to what is going on internally!