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Closed at slight loss and waiting. Decided not to add but wait for better positioning.
~d
Long /es. Will add on any decline down to 2960.
This is only a one, at most two days, trade.
~d
Maybe a gap up to 304/305 and run? or a gap down then run to 310?
~d
Those genius nerds who can use the Greeks to trade are like gods on Olympus to me.
That's it for the day, back to bed.
have a good evening, all.
H
One of the things I learned for myself over the years was to follow breadth more than price (some people follow price and price only, or the Greeks only, etc). For me, using breadth and $TICK charts to determine trend was more successful.
I also will lay indicators over breadth and also, $TICK charts and use ATR charts of same for clarification.
You can learn some surprising things that way. No one seems to talk about it though, so maybe it's just very strange...
Good, thanks. It's just easier that way, not trying to be the secret service. Do you have ToS?
~d
Nasaraavi, do you have PM abilities?~d eom
I actually have either a gap up or rally on my radar for tomorrow, so could be support for a while.
~d
Wow. Several of those look just terrible.
Not feeling too well today folks. Popped in to say I have a confirmed change in trend today (down) on my charts.
Later...
I'll post the chart after the close, Nasaravi. The fractal indicator was the most useful here, and I'll explain why when I post the chart. As I stated I'd be happy to share it publically again.
If I don't feel well enough to do it later, I'll definitely post it in the next two days. Please remind me if I forget.
~d
Hello there, so nice to see you. I am actually showing buying coming in now. A lot of res at 305-306 area on my ATR chart. I love ATR charts, they can clear up a lot of confusion when deciding to go long or short.
~d
Be very careful of going long and keep tight stops, folks.
~d
Closed 70% of puts accumulated from 309 to 314. However, I have a confirmed trend change down into the July Hurst low, with backing and filling, of course.
The clue for me was a 30 day ATR chart with a 30/90/30 MACD, which displayed major resistance in the 314-315 area. I also have a fractal indicator which showed a top in that area, which I'd be happy to share again with ToS users.
Not feeling well and I won't be posting much this week and possibly the next. I will be posting some Hurst projections later this week. Even without checking, I'd think 287 would be one of them.
Best regards to the board.
~d
There have been three Hindenburgs on both the Naz and the NYSE since June 11th; the last one was on Friday. Will be shorting all the way up to 318 if we get there and hedging with futures s/t.
~d
I love baseball. Did you make it to the big leagues?~d eom
If you sold a few credit spreads at slightly above/below 4 and 8 hour chart resistance you would be taking advantage of theta and be punting singles every week.
They add up over time.
I made $60 today barely looking at the trade. If /es had reached my short call I would have rolled it up a few points higher and still have done well. I often will use momentum indicators with deviation bands (and one other thing, I forgot, lol) to gauge how likely the short call/put spread will be touched or not.
One of the greatest traders I ever saw - he used to post all his trades on Tos - almost exclusively worked uneven butterflies and credit spreads and then tweaked them during the week. He used to own a company that sold trading books.
~d
Sold another 3120/3130 /es credit spread when SPY touched 311 and change. Received a .60 credit ($30) for both.
Expired worthless at 4 pm.
~d
From Tom McClellan. Please note, it was written in 2019.
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/qqq_volume_showing_us_sign_of_a_top/
Long one 1/3/2 uneven fly expiry Friday, 318/319/321 @ .35 credit.~d
Still short and looking to add, if I get a chance.~d eom
Sold a 3120/3130 /es call spread at SPY 310.50 equivalent.~d eom
Kudos to your call, by the way.~d eom
I have no idea. This one as based on a hunch that the big price bar on the 30 mihute minute needs re-testing.
The weekly Hurst low was this Friday/today (bullish), but that also makes it the 13-14 day high. So we'll see.
Obviously at this point I'm wrong. I also tend to be too early.
~d
May be no follow through till tomorrow or later in the week.~d eom
Adding.~d eom
Short since 309.50...
I have two Hurst projections, 298 and with an alternate phasing, 287.
Nothing under that yet, and sentiment is very bearish on all forums including Twitter, which may be a tell that we may not get to 287 or under.
I had pinned last weeks low as the 80 day trough from March 24th. If we go under that either the the low hasn't come in yet ( late equals bearish) or it has come in and we are going under it (also bearish).
David Hickson of Sentient Traders has two alternate phasings. One has the March trough as the 4.5 year low. This would be incredibly bullish. The 'normal' phasing still has it yet to come and it is due in late August.
I am thinking the 4.5 year low may actually come in October. If this occurs it would be the first time in over 10 years it would be late, not early and would be very bearish going forward.
~d
"better bearish or..."
Any you have in mind, for both bearish and bullish, that you'd care to share?
For the most part I like uneven flies better than strangles I use both implied and realized vol to assess the trade and also, res/supp. There's something about buying an option for a credit that warms my jaded trader's
heart.
LOL.
~d
It's unpatriotic for the market to go down.~d eom
I also wanted to say if some one like me who has an art and photography background and counts on their fingers can learn to trade, anyone can.
But they have to be willing, like me, to want it more than anything. To be willing to live, think, breathe, eat and dream trading 24/7. And to be willing to lose large amounts of money in the process, because believe me, they will.
If you're not like that I would. for now, subscribe to a good market timing service for trading and there are some I can highly recommend if anyone is interested.
But it's definitely possible if this is your dream.
~d
I PM'd the following privately to Robbin, but there may be a lot of other newbies out there who need to hear this, so here goes:
"Robbin,
I was thinking a lot about you last night and today.
Please, please, please, stop trying to trade like Netneutral. It takes years and a certain kind of skill to trade like him. It even takes years to learn to trade like boring traders like me, Jerry, Fitzwell, nowwhat, Technitrend, Sean and others here (my apologies if I haven't mentioned you), who 'just' time the market for highs and lows. both intra-day and swing.
If you have the Thinkorswim platform, go to the 'Analyse' tab and click on 'Probability Analysis' and that you will see what is a very basic, bottom of the barrel, free delta neutral tool. Looking at it, do you understand it even though it is so basic? Netneutral would understand it in a heartbeat. He is way beyond that level.
What is your level of trading? Do you use indicators and if so, what?
Please PM me.
Best regards,
~d"
Glen, I tweaked your chart by reversing price and adding a new indicator in the background.
Let me know what you think.
http://schrts.co/CIfPMnEX
Yikes, yes indeed. I think I'll go stick my head in the sand.~d eom
No, my pleasure. I wrote about them in this post (link at bottom of current post).
The website is hftalert.com.
I am warning you in advance, it's like boot camp for traders. They don't mess around and they're very strict. It helped me tremendously in my trading as I tend to be a very emotional trader, not very disciplined. I mention this because you might find it constraining.
What was also important was, for the first time in my life I really understood the concept of position sizing. I mean, this was after trading a very long time! BTW, young Robbin, NN is using position sizing too, although he doesn't mention it...
Everyone talks about how important is position sizing, but no one really explains how to do it in detail, especially with day trading. There, I watched some one (his name is Xavier) who used to own a hedge fund, trade in real time over a week and it was one of the best tutorials I ever had in that subject. Several times he turned a losing trade into a winning one with position management, and other losing trades he got a break even - and many others were wins from the get go.
Good luck to you whatever your decision.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=156405090
You misunderstood me, I am not requesting any info, Robbinhood. I trade in a news vacuum. That's what technical trading is all about and it's why I I am bearish for Monday. Well, maybe just Monday mornig, we'll see.
Good luck to you with your contact.
Remember, don't follow NN's trades, master his style instead and I would paper trade until I really understood what he was doing for a couple of months. It's a deceptively simple, delta neutral style of trading. You might want to look that up. And remember, he is also using charting that he created, that's proprietary. I'e, you don't have access to it 24/7.
In addition, keep on the back burner the subscription service I recommended, HFT alert. I don't get anything for recommending them.
Live long and prosper.
~d
This is really cool, too. I used to love ItchyMooky charts, maybe I'll give them another run.
~d
Yes, that's correct.~d eom
That's a really cool chart. You've been holding out on me.;)~d eom
My charts say further down for Monday with a possible brief spike up, or gap up - maybe. That's a small maybe.
~d
If it's out, we don't need it to be posted here?~eom