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Rivet answered this question by saying that the deal with AbuDhabi (which is set to be approved by shareholders in Feb) is not contingent on dealing with the letter from Intel. So they are moving forward without regard to this issue for now. Maybe Duke knows what Intel's next legal step might be? An injunction or something?
AMD got a letter from their 'friends across the street' concerning x86 licensing issues. The letter is asking for a meeting concerning same. lol
you gotta love Tim Luke, he always has the most complicated and painful questions in the CCs. I think he's the analyst that always says 'congratulations on the great quarter guys', he didn't say this time.
I think mas' reply might be 'let them eat cake'. But wait, the natives may be getting restless:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_02/b4115044767289.htm?chan=globalbiz_europe+index+page_finance%2C+markets+%2Bamp%3B+investing
Those consequences will probably include closer scrutiny by the (sovereign wealth) funds' boards. Coupled with other troubles, such as steep drops in their domestic stock markets and potential bailouts of local companies, at least some of the funds have come under pressure to spend at home rather than abroad. Kuwait's government, for instance, has asked its fund to pump money into the local bourse, which has fallen sharply. With the global credit squeeze, "the average Kuwaiti or Abu Dhabian can't get a mortgage or a car loan," says one Mideast banker. "They wonder why [the funds] are bailing out the Citigroups of this world."
It's the new mantra: "Abu Dhabi will keep AMD alive on a break-even basis to serve its needs". Which replaces the old mantra: "They'll just sell more shares until the numbers match".
I would add that in addition to observing the option prices, I needed to actually 'buy to open' and then 'sell to close' on both a put and a call (buy and sell an option). And then likewise to 'sell to open' and 'buy to close' a position (sell and buy an option). Watching the price action while holding these positions has helped me understand these vehicles much better albeit at a slight cost (but not much).
re: I'm currently short the March $12 Puts.
Does that phrase mean you have written (sold those puts)? Shorting a put seems like a double negative to me, but I've only read enough about options to be dangerous (i.e. to loose money).
I have also written my first puts for INTC, following your suggestion (all disclaimers fully realized). Perhaps I should have said written my first put (no plural), since I am just dipping my toe in to get some practical experience of the price action of this vehicle.
lol, that sounds like the same rhetoric that was coming out of BoA and Citi back in September'08. 'Nothing to see here', 'everything is fine', 'were undervalued here'. Now look at them.
“We expect UNB’s funding mix and government support to help it withstand the effect of current crisis,” says the report.
Dubai Islamic Bank’s earnings growth could drop due to the credit crunch, slowing domestic economic growth and the company’s exposure to the slowing real estate sector through various subsidiaries, says ADCB.
It retains positive long-term outlook on DIB due to its strong fundamentals, large branch network, established expertise in the rapidly expanding Islamic banking sector and strong capitalisation. DIB’s high capital adequacy ratio of 12.3 per cent ensures it has substantial funds available for its aggressive expansion and diversification strategy.
While headwinds being faced by the company are dampening earnings growth, the report believes the current share price fails to capture the bank’s high growth potential in the long term. DIB has been recommended ‘Buy’ with fair value estimated at Dh6.68.
ADIB shares currently trade at a discount to estimated fair value and offer a share price upside potential of 50 per cent. It maintains ‘Buy’ rating on the stock. According to ADCB report, ADIB’s fair share price is Dh4.98.
The bank earns around 30 per cent of its operating income from outside the UAE and this is believed to increase further. However, ADIB has significant exposure to the real estate sector through its subsidiary Burooj Properties. Sharjah Islamic Bank is also rated ‘Buy’ and fair share value is projected at Dh2.61. SIB is likely to continue reporting moderate growth in profits due to its diversified revenue base and broad product portfolio.
And is that what you hope will happen? That the current shareholders of INTC never recover?
If you think the 'end of the age of excesses' doesn't apply to Dubai, think again.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/3489393/Dubais-Palm-Jumeirah-sees-prices-fall-as-crunch-moves-in.html
From the article, BTW this article was written in Nov'08, real estate prices have gotten worse since then:
Property prices on the Palm Jumeirah, the island in Dubai that has been dubbed the ‘eighth wonder of the world’, have plummeted by as much as 40pc since September amid fears that the global credit crisis is stalling the emirate’s economy.
Meanwhile buyers are struggling to get mortgage loans in the region. Dubai Islamic mortgage lender Amlak told Reuters today it had suspended new mortgage loans as Dubai’s real estate sector shows further signs of stress.
Correct, I am referring just to the deal that involves taxpayer and Abu money to build the new facilities in upstate NY. I believe that rational thought will prevail and that going forward with guns blazing into more capacity expansion is just insanity. The momentum behind this project started some time (years?) ago during what I am calling the 'age of excesses'. It is hard to turn the tide of momentum for these kinds of projects but I think the circumstances are in place to turn the tide on this one.
RE: AMD-Abu-NY deal, I want to be sure I go down on this board as stating that I firmly believe that this deal will not occur.
Of course these are only my opinions, this is a message board after all.
But I think your argument loses some credibility when you bring AMD into the equation. If Intel's stock price approaches book value it will have nothing to do with AMD but rather a fundamental collapse in the way ALL US companies are valued.
Yes I understand what book value is, my reference to the balance sheet was more about painting a picture of a company with enough cash to endure an extended downturn and a business model (IA) that is more valuable than book value even in the face of a succession of quarterly losses (which will not occur IMO).
No, I still contend that talking about book value IS ridiculous for a company with a balance sheet and a business model like Intel's. For the stock of this kind of company to trade at 'asset liquidation' levels seems preposterous to me. I (and probably no one else on this board) have lived through a real depression but I suppose these 'end of the world' scenarios are possible but I just don't see it. I will await your 'I told you so' should that level come into view.
Does the possibility exist that once the netbook market is established (and Atom's are the processor of choice by OEMs), that Intel can increase the value proposition by bringing more capabilities to the Atom core and dropping new higher performing Atom's at the top of the pricing stack? So similar to the notebook processor model, and try to pull consumer's up into a processor that has similar ASPs to Celeron but better margins (cheaper to validate and package). This is the model that I hope Intel has in view. Perhaps we have to drag along at the lower ASP's for a while in order to establish this platform.
OK, I have no arguments with an executive that provides 'a reasonable chance of survival' (def. of viable) receiving an executive salary (approx 1.2 million/year). But I would argue that the gifting of bonuses should be reserved for the executive that provides 'a guaranteed survival' and then only after-the-fact.
Why aren't AMD shareholders outraged at this kind of compensation for a money losing enterprise? It would seem that it would be easy to find an executive that could accomplish what Ruiz has accomplished (and perhaps more?) for a lot less money. My household has been bleeding cash for several consecutive quarters too and no one is knocking down the doors to give me any bonuses, mostly they are knocking because they want some of what I have left.
http://sanfrancisco.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/stories/2009/01/12/daily82.html?ana=yfcpc
However, Ruiz is slated to get a salary of $1.15 million as chairman also of the Foundry Co., a joint venture being incorporated in the Cayman Islands by AMD and ATIC, a company from the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. He will also be eligible, according to his employment agreement, for a bonus of up to 400 percent of his salary per year.
Ruiz is also eligible for a $3 million “transaction bonus payment” to be paid on the closing of the Foundry Co. deal.
I've never known Sarmad's posts to ever be disingenuous or dishonest. Why do you assume that? His posts are always an attempt to get at some underlying truths to assist in investment decisions. Why the hostile tone? If you don't care to engage in the discussion with him then just don't respond, no need to assume dishonesty, I don't get it.
Do we know whether these are Intel SSDs or could they be from any of the other manufacturers as well?
Agreed. No matter what you think about the Intel stock price you gotta be impressed with the confidence that these guys exude when they deliver their quarterly report.
Which was my original point. Averaging down at those levels (i.e. below 10) is not and will not be possible unless the world comes to end IMO. I think looking to enter at 13, 12 and 11 is more likely to actually result in owning some shares.
CNBC ticker and Yahoo real time ticker not in synch for INTC. CNBC shows INTC up in after hours trading while Yahoo ticker shows its down. What gives? Which one is correct?
I am not currently writing puts but am considering your suggestion to write puts and calls that straddle my short term stock price projections. I am still a bit shell shocked from last years options disaster that I engaged in wrt to Intel so I am moving cautiously when it comes to option buying or writing.
re: I will be a two fisted buyer if it does...Agreed, I have dry powder but will begin using it at levels higher than single digits. I have already been a buyer at 14.20 level (should have waited longer after the warning) and plan on averaging down. I won't place any limit orders until after the CC though.
You can still change it to 8, no? Or better yet, average down and buy a third at 9, a third at 8 and a third a 7.
If we are going to start evaluating the stock price of companies of the quality of Intel Corporation in terms of their book value and the possibility of these companies reaching that price per share then we are in real trouble. I just don't see it. Realizing that $7/share represents book value, I will stand by my opinion than INTC never sees single digits unless the world comes to an end.
A possibility certainly, but given Intel's cash position (i.e. they can afford not to cut with 12bill cash to 2bill debt) and their desire to keep a floor under the stock price, I don't believe they will. I think more likely that they increase the dividend ever so slightly (as they have in previous years. JMO of course.
Yeah but different balance sheets, look at the debt to equity ratios, Intel borrows almost nothing and can increase the dividend if they so desire:
GE Total Debt/Equity: 4.89
PFE Total Debt/Equity: 0.24
INTC Total Debt/Equity: 0.06
Sure fear is present in the markets but I don't believe yields are irrelevant. On the contrary, I believe they are more important than ever before for those re-entering the market and building a portfolio of stocks to hold for the next 5 years. If I were advising my brother I would recommend buying and holding INTC for 5 years more than I would GME or CMG (both good growth companies but no dividend).
The desire to pounce on $8-9/share is precisely why we won't see it.
Single figures this year...I disagree that this is a distinct possibility. While I would say that it is possible since a further major market meltdown is also possible, I think it highly unlikely that you will be able to buy INTC shares for $9 this year. An approximate 6% dividend yield on a stock that is all but guaranteed to rebound to higher levels no matter how long the recession lasts is just to compelling to ever be offered IMO.
Fooled 'em this time...pulled my stop loss order and my trade stays intact (down 40 cents or so). I violated one of my new rules NOT to pull a stop loss. We shall see if the current bleeding stops around 13.75.
It's a slow fade...I'll be stopped out of my shares today (for a another losing trade). My model puts us back into the old range of $12-$15 for the next 2-3 months.
I've been doing my part in the past few weeks...moving money up the capital structure, out of treasuries and into munis and corporate bonds (even some high yields).
Bought some shares back at 14.10 this morning. I am hoping we see >15 before we see <13. I think some analyst will come out soon and say that businesses are actually still buying a few computers after all.
LOL, wait Obama hasn't even made it to the alter yet and you are saying the honeymoon is over! Let's let him consummate the marriage first.
Interesting....so you could see another 2000 pt haircut on the DOW in 2009. But why not more selling on a day like today? Seems like perfect weather for sellers to come out in droves. Bad Intel guidance, Indian Enron fraud uncovered, bad jobs data etc. and throw in a recent run-up that could have some profit to be taken. Seems like the kind of day that should contribute that 2000 point drop (maybe it still will).
Distracted by politics...My original post a while ago was going to be about INTC honest...here it is finally.
The expectation of a sub $11 share price for INTC just doesn't seem likely IMO. On a down day in the markets, Intel comes out with just horrible guidance in several areas (revenue, margins, investment losses) and the stock falls about 5% on heavy volume (and has recovered somewhat from that). I can envision another such warning in the next quarter perhaps which could produce a similar stock price reaction, but it seems that there just aren't many additional sellers at prices near the $13/share level. I'm not really convinced we will even see <$13 again but I still have buy orders in at that level. To see <11$ I think another market meltdown on the order of the Sept-Oct action would need to occur and I think that highly unlikely, unlikely enough to be a buyer in the $13-$14 range.
Statistically, you're in the minority
Sheesh, what do you know about where I am statistically? My comment was purely anecdotal just like yours (and many others) about the inability to get any consumer credit.
No wonder mas takes exception with a lot of your arguments, sometimes you just come right off-the-wall.