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Ken, we would not mind at all if you wanted to include Merlin, but delayed by 48 - 72 hours as on the public area of C2.
We have a Batman head and shoulders on the 15 min chart. Is that worth anything???
And don't forget the all important "Gleno" position/countertrend indicator just went bullish yesterday. That should just about guarantee the sell-off should begin soon.
So, you don't think enough bag holders have piled on yet? Seems all we get is a bull flag and then another round of buying kicks in.
So much for September living up to its reputation as bad for stocks...
The basic problem is that we are all trying to play by the historical TA rules in a game that is rigged, at least for the short term. With the Fed squarely behind the market bulls, they are simply not susceptible to the same level of fear and psychology that they would normally be if they didn't feel Bennie will be there bail them out yet again if needed. So, in the face of the worst developing economic conditions in a decade, the mindless dip buying continues to be the order of the day, and the MMs contribute by manipulating the gaps and generating just enough movement to continue raking in the money, i.e. ours (and only they know what the plan is on any given day).
As of the last half hour print from CBOE, the Index Put/Call ratio is about double its normal value. Index puts are frequently used by the MMs (smart money) to hedge their positions, often in advance of a planned sell-off. This PM could be ripe for one of Poker's famous Acapulco Cliff Dives.
Gap closed. As long as Bennie has their backs, the bulls will be emboldened and remain fearless, buying on any little pullback.
All the idiots and market cheerleaders they continue to trot out on CNBC are still in denial about whether or not we will have a recession, but one day soon, the market will suddenly wake up and it will be like the scene at the drive-in movie in Twister. "It's already here."
I think the market will eventually go down big, just maybe not in our trading lifetimes...
Of course, the Government conveniently excludes food prices from "core" inflation, so that intentionally masks the problem. Isn't food one of the basic necessities of life, just behind oxygen and sex, and what exactly is the rationale that lets them not count it in the inflation tally?
Re: Fed Policy, to my mind, Paul has it just about right...
"Ron Paul has slammed Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke for deliberately depreciating the value of the dollar to artificially bail out Wall Street while poor and middle class people lose their homes and have their living standards lowered.
During a Banking Committee hearing on Capitol Hill today, the Texas Congressman confronted Bernanke and accused the Fed of trying to solve the problem of inflation with more inflation by creating artificially low interest rates that have no effect because of the dollar's weakness.
Paul questioned how it could ever be morally justifiable to deliberately depreciate the dollar and pointed out the fact that the dollar collapse was a deliberate policy on behalf of the Fed.
Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Alan Greenspan have all been busy bad-mouthing the dollar over the past few weeks even as major players like China and Saudi Arabia consider dumping US treasuries, a move that would immediately trigger a dollar meltdown.
Ron Paul identifies the true culprits of the planned economic implosion while the establishment media and the yuppies celebrate the hollow "solution" of an interest rate cut that has no substantive benefit and only increases the risk of another depression by sinking the dollar to historic lows and ensuring foreign holders of US debt run for the door at breakneck speed."
Bernanke's weak canned response (non-responsive to the question) was that the Fed fights inflation. Yeah, right...
Short, for the moment...
If that in fact is true and not just more global warming hype, then it is due to a natural process, and not the result of mankind raping the planet. The false science of global warming is the presumption of cause and effect, which, as any credible scientist without a political agenda will attest, the case has *not* been made.
Well, the story is that the Vikings were the original PR men. They had a nice place that they didn't want to get too crowded so they called it Iceland. Then, when they discovered the vast frozen expanse to the west and wanted to encourage settlement, they called it Greenland. The last Ice Age ended ~ 10,000 years ago, but Greenland has been pretty much as it is now since then, so in the naming, they were not reflecting how it really was.
Sounds like a wise approach. When the market action is against your better judgement (or perhaps against every fiber of your being), best just to sit it out until the euphoria has run its course. You might miss some on the turn, but that might ultimately be better than being early and being wrong while the market grinds higher.
Can't say I believe in global warming either (weren't there ice ages in the past that came and went, well in advance of *any* activity attributable to human endeavors???), but here is the TOMO link. On top of yesterday's gift to the fund managers who were in deep kimchee with subprime paper, they are pumping $9.75B today, but of course, that is not inflationary either.
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm
Since Bennie and the Feds have now caved so pitifully on their fight against inflation in order to stave off a recession (an endeavor in which I believe they will ultimately fail), one school says that you have to own assets which rise with inflation, i.e. stocks. Until the recession is upon us, fully entrenched, and business activity actually contracts, the market could go significantly higher. Not many sellers out there this morning...
Clearly, the Fed caved to the market whiners (poor homebuilders who continue to glut the housing market, mortgage lenders, and hedge funds who own their worthless paper) and as you have so aptly pointed out, by the time the Fed acts as it did today, it has *always* been too late. However, it may be prudent to note that the market can be like a mortally wounded deer who can run for a couple of miles before realizing he is dead already.
I will be the first to admit that I'm not really very good at this. Mostly, I just muddle along...
EC, re: predictions, it is a fact that every Short or Long call will be right *eventually*, the trick of course being the timing.
Qs at 50.03. Looks like a great place to go Short.
My daddy once told me, "When your horse is dead, you get off." Reminds me of my third wife...
Seems the bears that have tried to jump on this at the close the last two days and have gotten their heads handed to them. Many are saying the market is positioning itself for the presumed Fed announcement of a rate cut on Tue, but rather than guessing and being wrong, I believe a smarter play might be to fade the initial move, especially if it goes extremely short term OB or OS.
Re: your PM, not today, but just voicing a personal opinion on the future direction. I think today's buyers will be tomorrow's bagholders (figuratively if not literally). Looks like some profit taking (finally) here into the close.
(Re: PMs, no longer a paying member)
The Boys are probably just letting the last of the tail end Charlie retail bag holders jump aboard before "getting worried" about the financial and housing mess again. Not much conviction to today's rally as measured by the lack of any real volume.
...and yet, it continues to creep defiantly higher.
The beauty of "Uncle Franklin's Ponzi Scheme" was that there were about 40 paying in for every one receiving benefits, and you had to be 65 to get it when the life expectancy back then was, guess what, 65!
You are right, of course. Not quite time for the Fat Lady yet.
As a student of military history, there is nothing quite like slaughter on a wide scale to stop the most determined assault in its tracks (e.g. Pickett's Brigade at Gettysburg), and we simply haven't seen that yet. Sure, there have been a few good down days in the last month, but then all the spinmeisters start talking bargains and all-but-guaranteed rate cuts and the herd gets all fired up again. When the big players return from their end of summer vacations next week and assess the whole situation, the other shoe could drop. The as yet unknown financial exposure of many institutions to the subprime paper mess may be the lynchpin. Meanwhile, yesterday and today were good days to be Long.
What did you guys do over here to get the bulls in such a lather???
Naz intraday IPC is 3.26 (at 1100 ET)...
Still don't think the Fed manipulates the markets?
Poker, still not convinced the Fed, with "the Boys" acting as their agents, don't manipulate the markets for their own purposes?
Concur, a good level to go Short if you weren't already and had the CO Jones...
Nice call. Missed it by .02 on that burn, but then, we aren't done yet.
Yes, but it is almost time for the Fat Lady, and it isn't looking good. Wasn't your HOM projection ~ 48.60?
Perfect bear trap just executed by the Boys. They got me good...
Oh, just "advertising"...
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