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Happy to admit I was wrong about approval of AT-014 this year, still not happy with how long it took the USDA. I would also say this makes me think there is a slightly greater chance they might announce something about HER2 today, there is probably something more here than just timing the earnings announcement with the AT-014 approval.
At this point I am finding it really hard to believe that AT-014 is still going to get conditional approval this year, basically 2-3 days left for that to happen. If the USDA gave them some indication that it would happen this year, I don't think they believed it would take until the last week. Either something changed or the USDA is just incompetent.
I hope so, but I will be very surprised.
In general I agree, I just think it has to hold something higher than $2.85, I would definitely like to see it stay over 3.
Even worse than I was expecting this afternoon, pretty bad if it goes anywhere near 3.0 again.
I was kind of hoping this might turn around this afternoon for a change, but not looking too promising at this point.
Agreed.
First time in a while, that the overall pattern of the day was the typical up in the morning then down all the rest of the day, but it still stayed above water at the end of the day.
I still think that's unlikely, but I think it's possible there is something more here than the typical earnings announcement. Maybe something like a slightly improved date to file with the EMA, or maybe even some effort on filing for AA with the FDA.
I would hope they try for accelerated approval with the FDA for AXAL, or possibly even DUAL, long before the current trial is finished. The new rules seem to say it might be possible based on what has already been done, only requirement is that the new testing continue.
I think it's more likely they will say what we already think we know, which is that the third party completed their part of the EMA submission, and Advaxis will complete the whole thing in January. But it's possible it could be fully completed already.
I'm not expecting much more, other than an update about what will be happening throughout 2018.
Doesn't it seem likely this is referring to GOG completing their piece of the puzzle that was requested by the EMA?
Still hoping that it may happen nearer to the end of 1Q18, and the 1H18 announcement was just to have some buffer room.
Definitely not great if it can't break through $3.20 today, again.
But why short against the box, why not just be short? If they are so confident (and capable) they can run it down, I don't see the point in owning it at the same time.
The usual afternoon slide, amazing how this almost always peaks somewhere between 11:00AM and 12:00PM. Not always, but often.
Don't count on it.
It bounced right off of $3.20 and is not looking too great this afternoon.
It would be rather surprising if he is standing by that prediction, but I don't think we will hear from him.
I would much rather see it close above $3.20, and stay above that. Anything less could be just another inability to make a new recent high.
So much for that idea.
I agree, but I must be short if I have a realistic view.
I think the cash needs and EMA approval are the only things that matter, you can't assume that submission equals approval 9-12 months down the road. Approval may be likely, but not guaranteed and not necessarily in the expected time frame. Let's face it, the EMA could easily decide that the testing to date is not sufficient, and they need some other results to get approval.
But they are evaluated on potential growth, and the potential would likely be judged to be near zero in a so called fire sale. I would agree that right now there is a lot of potential, but there are also huge risks to unlocking that potential.
I think $600M-$1B is a little high for a fire sale at this point, I would think more like $300M, but that is still about triple the current value. Unfortunately the milestone payments are really not worth that much when you factor in the time value of money and the fact that the market values growth over just about anything. A limited time stream of income is not worth that much compared to something with growth.
Although it's depreciating quickly, there may be some value in the equipment in the facility.
FWIW, I don't think the heavy volume this morning was HFT, somebody wanted out and sold a lot of shares.
Volume has completely dried up this afternoon, maybe whoever was selling is done now, or done for the moment.
Yeah, it's all just manipulation, there are no valid concerns here. It's not possible there is real risk and holders are bailing out.
You're right, volume picked up, it was low for the first half hour and it was going down anyway.
The market is telling us it's very skeptical of a deal, an offering, anything that will keep us afloat. I agree a normal company with everything ADXS has in the pipeline would be valued much higher, but if they can't fund their operations to bring some of them to market then there is a big problem. Until that risk is addressed, there is a big risk.
Not really heavy volume, seems like it's down on light volume.
No, I'm saying I don't see anything happening in early 2018 short of a significant cash infusion that will make much difference to the stock price. And that is also far from a done deal.
I think this is very optimistic. At this point, I don't really see the PETX approval or the EMA submission as causing any significant stock movement, only an agreement with a lot of cash or EU/US approval of AXAL is going to make a significant difference. Even initial dosing of NEO will be kind of anticlimactic now, only some preliminary results will be of any interest. Also, I'm not really convinced that any agreement for AXAL is going to bring a lot of up front money, almost certainly not enough to really guarantee viability through the licensing process.
Is there any way they can dilute and make the company viable for a reasonable amount of time at any reasonable stock price?
I don't know FBG, I'm not sure I buy it. There's no reason not to tout the technology even during times you might be talking to a buyer. Again, maybe there has literally been nothing to report, but the first half of the year things looked a lot better to the outside world than the second half of the year. Although I was convinced as anyone that Dan was fired, I'm beginning to second guess that, maybe he left because there was no deal to be made that would bring in enough cash to get through the AXAL licensing process. I know Tony has talked about a partnership for AXAL, but who knows what that might bring exactly. Will it be enough or just another band-aid? I'm not so sure, it's taken quite some time.
As far as the PR goes, couldn't they have made some press releases about the progress of AT-014? Instead we have heard nothing from Advaxis, only from Aratana.
I think there's no way it gets to $4 on just AT-014 conditional approval. Right now it won't go up for any reason.
Just like every other day, up in the morning, down in the afternoon.
Reminds me more of Pachinko, mostly down with a few little bounces up along the way. When will we reach the bottom of the machine?
There were 24 press releases in the first 6 months of 2017, and 8 in the last 5 months. IMHO, there were only 2 press releases since July that were of any value at all. Maybe this is all coincidence and correlates with study results, etc., but that seems unlikely.