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I'm around, don't worry. Just stopped posting as there is nothing to post, or to learn here.
Veracity of what posters claim on this message board can be proven only in time. See what transpires. Ken's lack of any attempt to clear this muddy situation speaks volumes. The next business update will likely be a nothing burger, and a heavy selloff could resume. This recent run up in the share price is orchestrated, there's no follow through, and no material news. We need more than a CC, we need to know why Amgen left the building, and more importantly, we need a cash deal. Soon.
Wednesday morning tidbit:
Now that Ken is finally back from vacation, he is busy this morning reading through the NEO termination notice and is finalizing 10-K report to be released tomorrow. No conference call is expected as the company is in the cash conservation mode. All vacations for 2019 are now postponed until after May '19, and the company is looking forward to rightsize the workforce in the first month of 2019. The number of salaried employees is expected to be reduced to just over 30. Thus, the cash is anticipated to last until August 17, 2019.
“any moron can see the potential here “
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I can’t say I’m smart, and if I don’t a potential here would it be reasonable to suggest that I am not a moron? Did I get it right that only morons see the potential here? Your logic is too convoluted to me.
Correction: it’s NOT the science that failed.
PS. Can’t edit it on my Commodore computer.
Frankly, nobody on this board knows why Amgen bailed on NEO. It’s all speculation, whether it’s manufacturing issues, exorbitant price, or something fundamental with the science. Only Amgen management knows for sure, even it’s possible that Advaxis management is just guessing why this transpired.
In this vacuum, the markets are not speculating about the reason for discontinuation— they are assuming the worst possible scenario and selling. We are in a “prove me wrong” mode. Advaxis needs to show it’s now science that failed. They have to come out clean from this mess and tell us what happened. The prove could be a deal signed with other BP. Until then, nobody will believe a word that comes out of Ken.
Time to acknowledge we all made a bad investment.
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What’s your next step then? Sell and move on? Or, sit tight and pray for a miracle?
I personally made that acknowledgement few months ago and decided to wait it out. There’s no point to sell, it doesn’t make any sense financially as my original investment has been cut by more than 60x.
Friday afternoon tidbit:
When I looked at my IRA accounts this morning, I was shocked to see that ADXS positions were down 98.6% on average! That's a total destruction of hard earned cash in less than 3 years.
The company's market cap is measly $18M, and we are well below a point of no-return threshold of 30M. If someone looks from the other galaxy, they could see how a black hole devours this ugly dwarf in slo-mo.
I'm a Walmart greeter, and a whole lot poorer than 3 years ago. There is not a chance for me to get a job at Advaxis with my GED, remember?
I do not trust what's posted on GD -- positive or negative. My point was these last reviews are reflective of the collective mood at the company. That's all.
I cant'd disclose my sources, I never will. It suffices to say that it's not the top management. James used to say he had a sort of direct communication line with former CEOs, and I'm not sure he has such a line with the current one.
All I can tell is that the GD reviews are direct voices of ADXS employees and highlight the state of the company -- the DISARRAY. Folks started jumping the ship some time ago, it accelerated with the layoffs, and now with almost everyone is working on polishing their resumes and searching for jobs. The overall mood is "we are doomed". Can you provide any concrete example that what I was told is NOT true?
James said:”There is no manufacturing issue.”
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James,
How do know? It’s an honest question. I assume the mfg issue, rather cost of the production and delivery, could be prohibitive to make this treatment not economically viable.
Did you have any conversation with Amgen to make that statement? I wouldn’t trust Advaxis on this feedback.
We actually closed green in this bloody day. Why? Is there a reason to celebrate?
We are priced at the bankruptcy levels, and markets assume very high probability of that happening. All major sellers left this equity, we have bag holders like me and some predators. The tax loss selling seems abated, and we are at standstill until something happens.
I personally do not see any major sell off from these prices. There’s no reason to sell now, and shorts are done covering, okay, almost.
It’s going to be quite few weeks. Tomorrow we shall see an annual report released quietly. No comments from the management. Ken is in shock after returning from his vacation. He might actually need another time off to recuperate and recover.
I keep hearing his days are numbered. I think those are just rumors.
Thursday morning rumination:
I was expecting higher selling pressure after the NEO dumping. I thought Amgen would be dumping their 3M shares immediately, maybe thy did maybe they did not. Now I started to think they might have dumped their shares before handing the news to Advaxis. If I were Amgen, I would do the same - I’d sell forts, and then send a notice to the partner. After all, they were no longer insiders, and do not need to file Form 4. It looks like someone knew that and used this information to short and/or unload shares. This explains the continuous pressure on the share price for the past month or two.
Amgen is NOT abandoning immuno-oncology, they are just focusing on BiTE which recently showed great promises. Rather than spreading themselves thin, they are re-directing resources on something that they consider is a better option. It's amazing how this PR followed the NEO termination PR, telling us this was in the works long time ago, and either ADXS did not know and were clueless, or just lied to the investors.
Snip from the PR: "The parties will jointly evaluate MP0310 in combination with Amgen`s oncology pipeline products, including its investigational BiTE® (bispecific T cell engager) molecules."
This is where AMGN's money is going to flow -- that's the reason they bailed on us.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/amgen-and-molecular-partners-announce-strategic-collaboration-in-immuno-oncology-1027819622
Amgen And Molecular Partners Announce Strategic Collaboration In Immuno-Oncology
PRESS RELEASE PR Newswire
Dec. 18, 2018, 11:00 PM
THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. and ZURICH-SCHLIEREN, Switzerland, Dec. 18, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) and Molecular Partners AG (SIX: MOLN), a clinical-stage biotech company pioneering the use of DARPin® therapeutics, today announced a collaboration and license agreement for the clinical development and commercialization of MP0310 (FAP x 4-1BB). MP0310 is a preclinical molecule designed to locally activate immune cells in the tumor by binding to FAP on tumor stromal cells (localizer) and co-stimulating T cells via 4-1BB (immune modulator).
Under the terms of the agreement, Amgen obtains exclusive global development and commercial rights for MP0310. The parties will jointly evaluate MP0310 in combination with Amgen`s oncology pipeline products, including its investigational BiTE® (bispecific T cell engager) molecules. Under the collaboration, Molecular Partners retains certain rights to develop and commercialize its proprietary DARPin® pipeline products in combination with MP0310.
Molecular Partners will receive an upfront payment of $50 million and is eligible to receive up to $497 million in development, regulatory and commercial milestone payments, as well as double-digit, tiered royalties up to the high teens. The parties will share the clinical development costs in defined percentages for the first three indications subject to certain conditions. For all additional clinical trials, Amgen is responsible for all development costs.
"MP0310 is the first candidate out of our portfolio of localized and multi-specific immune-cell agonists. This collaboration with Amgen will allow us to test multiple combinations of MP0310 with other agents, leveraging the potential of MP0310. We anticipate MP0310 to enter the clinic in 2019," said Dr. Patrick Amstutz, chief executive officer of Molecular Partners. "The partnership with Amgen underlines the potential of MP0310 and the DARPin® platform to deliver novel therapeutic designs."
"The field of immuno-oncology continues to rapidly evolve, and it's our belief that combination treatments will have a major role to play in the future of cancer care," said David M. Reese, M.D., executive vice president of Research and Development at Amgen. "We look forward to collaborating with Molecular Partners to combine MP0310 with certain oncology assets, including BiTE® molecules, to deliver improved outcomes for patients."
4. Racially unacceptable therapy.
What if the scientists and doctors came to a conclusion that this personalized therapy requires not just a genome sequencing but also is very sensitive to the race of the person. The therapy works for one race and would not for the other. Would you consider that type of controversial therapy to even take to the later stages of the clinical trials let alone discuss in the public forums? Both companies would be immediately attacked by media and social activists.
5. Amgen learned that this is the cure and did not want to the footsteps of Gilead with Havroni and Sovaldi.
6. Sean Harper wanted to take this tech private and made sure Amgen dumps it after him leaving the company. Once the Advaxis share price crashes he gets to buy it for two peanuts.
Meanwhile:
Advaxis downgraded to Neutral from Buy at H.C. Wainwright H.C. Wainwright analyst Swayampakula Ramakanth downgraded Advaxis (ADXS) to Neutral without a price target. Amgen's (AMGN) termination of a development and collaboration agreement puts ADXS-NEO in limbo, Ramakanth tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes Amgen's withdrawal has "considerably increased" the development risk on ADXS-NEO and potentially ADXS-HOT as well. He steps to the sidelines "until the viability of the programs can be assured."
Read more at:
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2838455
The continued silence speaks louder than anything else. They have nothing to say besides what was said in the SEC filing.
Ken was supposed to get back from his vacation this past weekend, but he he changed his mind and decided to stay on the Cayman Islands for another week. He might have conversations with CVI still ongoing, thus until the talk are finished he might not be back before Christmas. If this is correct, we may not hear anything until 2019.
If you are worried about your Xmas presents, ADXS has already delivered them to you -- just be sure to check your leather portfolio.
What? We used to know that a prolonged silence from the company means an imminent buyout? Did something change recently?
Remember the company logo: "We are here to cure the Cancer"?
I think their primary goal goes well beyond that -- it's an immuno-investology company. Once you lose in the Advaxis, you get vaccinated against disastrous investments like Advaxis for your lifetime. Unless, you fail to learn from this lesson.
Monday morning tidbit:
The Holiday bonuses were supposed to be distributed this Friday at Advaxis, however, the management decided to rescind the scheduled payments to the employees referring to the challenges in the state of the business. Modest lump sums amounting to about 28% of the base salaries will be privately distributed to the top management of the company to celebrate Hanukkah.
The company re-iterates that the Christmas presents to the shareholders have already been delivered.
I believe you will have better buying opportunities soon.
Listen, the whole stealth SEC filing of the Amgen bailing doesn’t pass a smell test. If Advaxis had any positive to say, they would have had a conference call.
An assumption that Amgen bailed on Advaxis due to an upcoming HOT program doesn’t not hold water. If the main concern were the price disparity between HOT and NEO, they would have just grabbed HOT the same way as they did NEO. I do not believe Advaxis management was asking exorbitant prices for HOT, they just don’t have any leverage to do so.
The main reason appears to be MFG issues, and if so, I would expect they face similar manufacturing issues with HOT.
Too little, too late, bro. Our ship has sailed some time ago, and left us on an uninhabited remote island with no drinkable water and food. We are doomed. Look, Ken or someone else would never go to this island to vacate. He chose Bermudas and Caymans.
We are left alone on this island and there us no way to escape it. Pretty soon, folks will turn against each other and the bloodshed will erupt. Many cases of cannibalism will be evidenced. It will not end pretty.
I think Amgen used Ken's absence to severe ties with Advaxis, not allowing Ken to re-negotiate the original deal.
PS. You need to be careful when to take a vacation.
I need to confirm this but someone told me the conference call was not scheduled yet due to the delay of flight from George Town, Grand Cayman airport. Ken should be departing from Owen Roberts International Airport in 4 to 5 hours. Ken is expected to issue a PR sometime on Monday after a BOD meeting this weekend.
KB now stands for Kentucky Bourbon, HOT processed in the presence of listeria flakes.
It seems that the AM you visited last April was actually the last one for this company. The management is likely drowning their sorrows in the King of All Beers -- SAPPORO.
Over 2M shares traded in 90 minutes. Can we get to over 5M shares by the close? Officially, we have 2.5M shares short, could be higher if naked shorts are unreported. Are they covering? If they are, we could see the shares close at 0.30. So far, I was expecting much higher volume.
Yes, CATs have 9 lives. How many have you been through?
I agree the game is over, or almost over. I'll be quick to sign up for a CA lawsuit should the ambulance chasers pop up soon. Sidransky must be sued for all his sins, and don't forget to include Lombardo and Ken. Would be nice to list O'Connor as well.
Life is short, and Advaxis life is even shorter.
It's a shame the management stays silent. Ken needs to go, he's absolutely incompetent. So are the BOD members, and their chairman.
There's virtually no support, no buying, just shares are dumped. Low teens by the end of this year. Wow...
Can anyone provide a single rationale why the management is silent? I can't and it makes me more convinced that they have been blindsided and have nothing to say. In any case they need to stop hiding under the cardboard boxes and face the music.
#unfreakingbelievable
The real overhang for the share price now is going to be over 3M shares that AMGN is expected to dump. Will they unload now or wait until the contract expiration on 2/09/19?
I'm afraid we are to see low teens (as in cents).
Dew,
I'm not sure that NEO can be re-licensed to other big pharma. Why the other BP would want to take on NEO if the MFG costs are too high and the process itself is too complex? Assuming that AMGN bailed on ADXS due to high costs of the drug is there any compelling reason for other BP to take on those high risks seeing that ADXS is actively promoting HOT program? I'd assume the possible partner could just take HOT, and require that ADXS completely bury NEO.
AMGN is $125B company, and could have afforded to wait and help us with refining the MFG process, but I'm afraid they saw something else as well that made them really uncomfortable and forced them to pull a plug. Something smells here, but it's not a dead corpse of NEO yet. It will die in less than two months.
Yes, Ken has been playing a 3D chess game with big pharma as some prolific posters said here. Now we see how he strong armed big pharma and we got a check mate , meanwhile. He obviously ain’t Bobby Fisher or Kasparov. More likely a novice.