Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Punit has a history of raising a lot of money in stock offerings going back to Inovio. He did manage to get Inovio a major Licensing deal with Roche. He will do the same with Oncosec when the time is right...meaning next year when PISCES data comes out.
It is a fact that Amgen paid up to 1 Billion dollars to get their hands on T-Vec with the buyout of BioVet in 2011 so they could combine it with Yervoy and later with Keytruda. This was a huge bet on a belief in combination checkpoint therapy. The 1 billion dollar speculation on Oncosec is simply a comparison of what could be fetched for another therapy with similar response rates. Not out of the question at all and good to have a benchmark to compare to. Merck would not have to split money with Amgen if they took over Oncosec and have similar response rates.....a big money discount in my mind.
Capital Raise out of the way, stock price remains above $1, so no delisting fears. No worries here, price will move higher with upcoming SITC conference. We may see an added boost when they release first time data on the multi-gene construct at SITC. Oncosec invested a lot of money on their next generation ep device, we should see the fruits of this investment because this will be a clue as to where we are headed with deep solid tumors. So with the capital raise out of they way this sets up another big catalyst for a share price move. Also final data on TNBC should be released by early next year before PISCES data, so we do have more catalysts ahead.
I agree this is a perfectly timed offering in between data releases. SITC will give us the full data that explains the increase in complete responder rate. Even Adam F. is waiting for the SITC release to make any more comments. This will shoot higher on the SITC release. I am glad they are getting the offering out of the way so all focus can be on the data.
Oncosec vs. T-vec article from 2014:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/29879435-shallum-furbush/3564275-valuation-case-for-oncosecs-immunopulse
With regards to what Oncosec could be potentially valued at, Furbush posted an article 3 years ago comparing T-Vec to Oncosec therapy and I think it is worth a read to get a handle on the competition. A few major points of interest are that T-Vec and Oncosec monotherapy resulted in about the same response rates. When combined with Yervoy, the rates were much higher for T-vec and Amgen went on to combine T-Vec with Merck's Keytruda for a much higher rate of success. Since Oncosec has reported recent results with Merck's Keytruda they are on par with T-Vec combo with Merck. A big difference here is that Amgen bought out Biovet (T-Vec therapy) for 1 Billion dollars in 2011. Oncosec is still a tiny microcap company with a 26 million market cap. If Merck wanted to sidestep splitting profits with Amgen they could get about the same results using Oncosec/Keytruda combo. A buyout or licensing deal with Oncosec might be much more lucrative than splitting profits down the middle with Amgen.
T-Vec trials enrolled large numbers compared to Oncosec, but T-Vec uses a virus and Oncosec uses electroporation. A big positive for Oncosec therapy is no toxic side effects. Their platform could easily be done on an out-patient basis. No toxicity means Oncosec therapy is safe and the risk of future lawsuits would be nil.
I agree, this could go either way, licensing route or buyout. Good results next year and Punit will have his choice whichever is more lucrative.
OncLive put out coverage with a short writeup on friday. BioWorld online also put out an article on the recent Oncosec data on friday. Oncosec is getting alot more eyes on them with the recent data updates. The data is very encouraging especially because more partial responders are becoming complete responders. Keep in mind that the FDA granted Oncosec fast track as well as orphan drug status based on a lower response rate earlier this year. That rate just improved to a 50% BORR. If Oncosec replicates these numbers in the PISCES trial next year we are most definitely looking at an early approval and bump up in timeline to commercialization. The better the overall response rate, the more patients Oncosec will likely treat when approved.
http://www.onclive.com/web-exclusives/immunestimulator-boosts-pembrolizumab-in-melanoma-patients-with-cold-tumors
1,000 patients treated at $50,000 would be 50 million dollars. If you multiply this conservative number a few years out and a ramp up in melanoma cancer patients which is expected to explode in the next 10 years, then you really get a much higher number a few years out for this one indication.
Merck would be absolutely foolish to not simply buyout Oncosec if they are given the opportunity. Punit may actually not want to give up the company if this turns out to be too good to give away. I think next year this will turn in to a licensing and milestone situation and an expansion into other indications such as TNBC. NSCLC will be the largest cancer market that Merck will dominate with their most recent 1st line approval which leapfrogged over Bristol Myers. I could see Merck making Oncosec and offer to run a new combo trial for NSCLC with trial funding.
Positive PISCES trial results next year will lead to rapid changes at Oncosec.
Ash, those Maxim calculations are very conservative and assume only a fraction of the 10,000 potential patients for melanoma and a 2021 approval timeline. I think we get an accelerated approval on good numbers next year. I also think that Oncosec tapped the ATM with the recent share spikes. Leading up to the SITC full data release we are likely to see more of the same price action. If they announce that they have executed the ATM fully already that would set us up nicely for the SITC news. We know the numbers are better than expected, but when we see the actual data and charts that explain fully that more partial responders are becoming complete responders at 24 weeks Oncosec stock will move higher and maintain a higher share price. I expect that Adam F. will like the data also and have a nice writeup on Oncosec shortly after SITC.
The latest slide deck lists this:
"Favorable PISCES Data Could Unlock ~10K Stage III/IV Melanoma Anti-PD-1 Failure Patients (US Only)"
Punit threw out the multi-billion dollar comment when he went on to state where the value for immunopulse-il12 combo therapy might be if you multiplied the number of other indications they could go after.
Punit also has compared t-vec to Oncosec therapy in terms of a buyout value. Biovet (t-vec therapy) was bought out buy Amgen for around $1 billion I believe.
I received an Oncosec report from Maxim a few months ago stating that they believed that with an FDA approval for PISCES, Oncosec could turn profitable in the year 2021 without an accelerated approval (their conservative estimate-and $5 target). They estimate a profit of $45.7 million first year, $92.3 million 2nd year, $144 million 3rd year, $220 million 4th year in melanoma. So with accelerated approval that timeframe could move up to 2019 as the year they turn a profit.
Maxim also put out numbers for Merkel Cell and TNBC if Oncosec were approved for those indications later by 2021-2023. TNBC would be close to the melanoma numbers, but a little under. TNBC would bring in about $40 million first year and $70 million second year. Merkel Cell lower numbers at $25 million first year, $53 million second year, $69 million 3rd year.
So multiple indications get you to the billion dollar mark in time if you have a growing cancer population as has been predicted (sadly) in the future 10 to 20 years.
Even if it is priced at half that, Oncosec will make a hell of a lot of money. Orphan drug designation comes with economic incentive too. $150,000 per patient in all reality is probably too high but would be nice.
The volume in the past two weeks has definitely put Oncosec on the radar at the very least. I still believe that the largest misunderstanding about Oncosec is that the market has a hard time interpretting exactly what they are.....a medical device company or a drug company, which doubles the risk. They are a hybrid company that uses electroporation which has been viewed as weird science for a very long time. Finally with an FDA approval next year Oncosec will have definitive proof of their platform and will no longer be viewed as weird science.
Orphan drug designation will give Oncosec 7 years of exclusivity when they get accelerated approval next year. With an annual patient population of 3,000 patients at $150,000 for 7 years, just in the United States alone, that is a huge market opportunity. Just the prospects of that alone should have institutions hoarding into Oncosec stock with the recent data release.
I totally agree that Oncosec and Merck will later develop the combination therapy as a 1st line therapy but the quickest commercial opportunity right now is accelerated approval for checkpoint therapy failure population. I think it is an excellent strategy because success with the PISCES trial would be absolute proof of Oncosec's platform in combination with Keytruda....and shave years of waiting for an approval for validation. Once we get an FDA accelerated approval next year Merck will be all in and expand the pipeline with new trials for TNBC, NSCLC, Head and Neck cancer....etc. The future looks bright.....I gotta wear shades.
They have also said they will execute the ATM (obviously on data releases to take advantage of price spikes and reduce the dilution). The ATM is for roughly $8 mil so we are good until data release mid 2018. Good results will have Merck 100% stepping in with financial support.....something similar to KALV (Kalvista pharma) recent deal. Just for comparison, KALV market cap spiked to 150 mil and is now around 100 mil market cap after their deal with Merck. Since Merck went big on Cubist for 8 billion, their more recent strategy has been to go after or support small cap biotech companies.
I am not worried about the volatility. The updated data release was better than expected and makes me more confident than ever that Oncosec will succeed with the PISCES trial. Even Punit sounded surprised with the increase in complete responders and BORR at 50%.
Strong daily volume continues here. Very bullish wedge formation on the charts. We are primed to head to $2 and breakout from there very soon. News is too bullish to ignore.
I just submitted a question request for Cramer on MadMoney. Maybe I get a call from CNBC to ask his take?
I think this will actually close at $2 today after people got fooled or stopped out of their shares.
Call me goofy, but I just e-mailed Cramer(madmoney) with a request to highlight Oncosec on his show. What the hell....why not.
Adam F. words carry a lot of weight in the market. I'm sure we will get another updated article after SITC full data information is released. This is positive. Now maybe we need to put a call into Cramer live to get his take and get more eyes on Oncosec.
Premarket the price was as high as 1.80, based on market-moving data....it just didn't hold yet....and I am hoping Oncosec executed the ATM at the much higher pricing to get the dilution out of the way. Much higher prices are coming in the future if people will wait for it. To each his own...the data is very compelling and predicts that the PISCES registration trial results next year will be a success.
It was, and the price moved much higher before falling again. Tapping the ATM at a higher price is the best timing for Oncosec right now. They are responsible for funding the PISCES trial so they have to do the ATM....we know this.
I think that is obviously what is going on right now. We will see more during SITC data release too. This is the optimal time to get the ATM out of the way and then we can maintain a higher share price on the actual data into next year. This was expected.
Institutions probably taking retail shares right now. Stay in it to win it!
Suckers will sell their shares now, or were stupid for setting a stop loss on this and just lost their shares. This will rally hard. Data is way too compelling here and Tutees will be adding big time.
The detailed data presented at SITC in a few weeks on the 50% response rate will give us more confirmation for the PISCES trial. 9 complete responders at 24 weeks is a big deal.
True value will not be reflected in Oncosec until we actually get an actual money deal. I truly believe we are on that path. I have had enough patience in this for the last 4 years to wait another 9 months if need be.
Right now success is not reflected in the stock price or the future potential on additional indications for ep-IL12 + pembro. Investors should take this data update as a strong indication of what is in store for the PISCES data results next year, but should also keep an eye out for the data release in a few weeks at SITC. They will release first ever data on the multi-gene construct. I think this will later be used in a deep-solid tumor indication in combo with Merck's pembro. Merck will be interested in this data for sure.
We are in great shape here. I am completely confident that Oncosec will succeed next year with the PISCES trial. The data is too compelling to ignore at this point.
Complete responder number is fantastic! That is what we needed to see. This is an extremely supportive data update. Oncosec is set up nicely for the PISCES trial. I do believe they will get a very sweet deal with Merck from the registration trial. Great days ahead for Oncosec.
Oncosec chart reading has been strengthening every day for the past week. Buy volume is exceeding sell volume now today. I like it. We should have a very nice close today.
Oncosec Barchart.com reading is very strong right now. Current price is just above upper 2 resistance levels.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/ONCS/opinion
Oncosec stock is technically in a strong position right now. We are ready to make a strong move higher on high volume in my opinion.
Adam F. article on Oncosec from earlier this year regarding current combo study with Merck:
https://www.thestreet.com/story/14024725/1/biotech-stock-mailbag-oncosec-medical-and-the-quest-to-turn-cold-tumors-hot.html
Merck doesn't blindly throw 30 million dollars out the window on shaky science. They believe in Oncosec and will pay up heavy when Oncosec puts out the positive PISCES data. We just need to wait for the data.
Just dug it up and posted it. People really need to be reminder of the value here. Out of sight out of mind.
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13578795/1/ziopharm-subpar-cancer-therapies-can-t-support-lofty-market-valuation.html
Ziop market Cap is 810 million vs Oncosec Market Cap at 25 million. Adam Feuerstein is positive on Oncosec.
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13578795/1/ziopharm-subpar-cancer-therapies-can-t-support-lofty-market-valuation.html
Adam F. is positive on Oncosec.
I would agree with that. I would take profits and hold some shares for the longer-term if Oncosec remains an independent company. Punit has talked about an exit opportunity.....so we don't know exactly if that means complete buyout. He has placed people in the company now who know how to get that done right. We will have to wait and see. So many Biotechs explode in share price without a buyout and shed all the gains. I would at least take my original investment money off the table and hold the rest. The potential is huge here on great news next year, the only problem is the market can swipe your gains quickly.
Merck is totally focused on Keytruda and exploiting every possibility with it. They lucked into it through a merger and only started focusing in on it after Bristol Myers had success with Opdivo. Better late than never. Now Merck has leapfrogged over Bristol and imagine the possibilities in Lung Cancer if Oncosec gets an approval for the PISCES trial in the non-responder population.....you can bet Merck will exploit the shit out of this in Lung Cancer and TNBC, Merkel Cell, Head and Neck.....all indications that are Keytruda approved or soon to be approved. The sky is the limit for Oncosec share price.... we just need positive data next year in PISCES trial and we are golden here.