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I think everybody is confused. Confusion may remain no matter how the weeks unfold. $15 million or more within next 3 months has to be better than bankruptcy. $20 million carries the company through April, so that is far enough to interact with more phase 3 news
So negative non-events are EVENTS and positive EVENTS are non-events
No, beliefs can't be put to a bunch of defined tests. If the theoretical optimal was applied would a $1 invested at Sep 2013 be worth a lot more than a penny now, beats me. Another truth is the smart $1 over most of these months would simply have gone elsewhere knowing optimal rarely happens.
Impossible to test, but intuitively 100 percent of investors believe certain things could have been done better, excluding the obvious salary story. Hey but certain things could have been done worse in the FDA arena imo
No, the truth is OTC had to be done, was never a biggie from beginning to end. The biggie is if terrible financing can now turn to good financing.
Bankruptcy is still a possibility, but I lean towards the Goddess snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. The ball is in her court to sweet talk some serious money this way, you can bet she has a laser focus on this drama
Just as funny if a $50 million dollar deal or close to is done, watch all the deniers of it being impressive, for now objective says watch the action first
or any message board poster
I don't know whether ratio of 100 rights to 1, but makes sense. So for $1 million worth of stock rights, a fat cat needs a current stock position a bit north of $10,000 in value. Game playing is a questionable activity when the big prize is maybe looking for a $2 million profit or triple from $1 million
Turntheship can be pretty accurate, but whose to say if investor presentation last week was worth Simpson visit or not. It is all a small gamble if subscription pledge was to be refunded due to lack of fire power.
Speculating it might take a few putting up $1 million roughly, less than 5 percent of hopefully rights offering
Possibly an interesting story then but talking about cloudy. When would outlying regions of world be interested in using? The blockbuster hep c drugs were sold in India for peanuts
No they could issue 100 rights for each share if they wish. In fact why not?
The tricky part is everybody that exercises rights will be subject to the backstop, if so keep some extra cash handy.
I think the most likely risk is I write a check that has to be refunded because offering is a flop, and then bankruptcy fears come strongly back into play. If the offering goes through and I get shares, I hope there are people standing shoulder to shoulder with me that believe FDA promise land is a good possibility
We are going to find out I suppose, my current thought is to put up big money for a risky play. If all went perfectly $50 million buys maybe an end game market cap of $300 to $500 million market cap with no further dilution, we will be sitting at approximately 30 million shares for end of phase 3
Well, you are right about one thing, this is a puzzle, I have my little position and wait to see what the heck
Who can possibly accurately and completely answer all questions, being we as little folk are only half way up the evolution scale on comprehending financial world. If Simpson pulls this off, she is a Goddess like it or not. The only promise is we are living in interesting times
Bond, I think more research on fast track, that 60 day quote did not work for me. My guess if one took NDA submission time plus fast track approval in a super fast finish, I think 8 months at least.
The part I look for is early termination of phase 3. I very much doubt if termination in 2018, good chance in 2019. I suspect minimum of mature data on 100 patients, maybe 100 patients reached earlier this year, I hope so, then one year for maturity.
I sold out Friday, bought 1000 shares today, but may sell some if any price spike.
If it goes through, Simpson and team will have earned enormous credit for leveraging the phase 3 milestones to do a hefty financing deal. When the stock last fall quickly plunged to $1 million market cap, I thought the curtain was going to close.
All the credit to you on this post. If it goes down that way, investment community is going to come around to seeing this very positively imo. Enrollment is an outstanding issue, but money can be applied fully to getting enrollment at an optimal level. My guess would be about $25 to $30 million from here until end of phase 3. Excellent chance of no more than 30 million shares outstanding at the point of an exciting market cap.
One primary risk is this is not the best time to buy with above scenario, but a better time than from mid 2010 until now.
I am not sure how the $1.75 fits in, plus it is still only a proposal if I understand correctly
The price and times may struggle, but over all $15 million of itself not toxic in quality, almost great. After all look at miserable market cap
I am not certain of the answer except this tiny $2.4 million deal is not even worth thinking about. There is no reason to believe rights offering has to care about a note conversion at $3 so could be any price for rights offering. The important parts are I think initial execution of rights offering, and then additional filling. If there is an initial quick filling for $15 million or more, I don't see a likely downside at this time even if at $1.75. $15 million could be seen as skimpy, but nobody was thinking $15 million as likely last week
Considering imo the quality of investment community currently following this company, probably well over 80 percent make little effort to digest something like this and I don't think it is solid as a done deal also. When it is solid still most of us want to see how the action actually comes down. There is still no knowledge of what the initial deal price would be. Is it more like $1.75 or $3.00?
Trying to keep it simple, good time to buy a little but it is not time to chase a strong price if the case imo. People don't trust the company can do go a good financing deal, stay loose and relaxed, buy when it seems right
Tra la la la we should take money from Genghis Khan if it gets us to FDA promise land
That brings back star wars. To be concrete, this is an OM product essentially for purposes of value imo. Our wise leader knows the option has to be in house, keep the faith but donate modestly until a big offering looms closer
It is kind of like a card game where all the cards have not been dealt, but certainly beats a bankruptcy filing
Guessing number of outstanding shares in 2019 would be the hard part. Market cap probably between $300 million and $500 million when phase 3 is finished. I suppose stay at that range then for 1 year until approval. Assuming all goes well, sometime within the next 6 months is best time to buy probably no later than next 30 days with the launch of a rights offering.
Good grief, I probably posted on that close to a dozen times before as well. Besides to the math, original supposed to hit 240 patients this month and June 2019 for phase 3 estimate end as mature data on 240 patients.
I would say then 6 months for submission, so a delay of just one month under that scenario poof submission estimate in 2020
Because of just maybe early termination versus enrollment issues tough because of ongoing money issues, etc.. makes a guessing game. Simpson is properly only promising more info for 2nd half of year
Either quarterly or a previous presentation or both, easily remembered and all tied to consequences of being behind on enrollment. By the way June 2018 was when 240 was supposed to be enrolled
Maybe some will listen, Simpson honorably has stated she doubts she can do the NDA submission by the end of 2019, it is a black and white assertion on her part. She of course would not extend hopes for an early termination of the trial, A+ to her on that, but we can speculate early termination. But even with early termination, it would take about one year from time of termination to actual approval. Early termination though would be huge, it is ever so simple to comprehend.
Also I don't think she ever said no more convertible, she said no more variable financing. I am not sure though a rights offering is different from variable financing, so the issue remains imo. If I understand correctly a rights offering could get the company a lot of money quickly, so outright toxic may be something the company can say NO to. As an example if the company raised $15 million fairly quickly in a non toxic manner, probably additional financing can be shut down if toxic
I am not the one obviously making claims that Simpson is unreliable on interaction with shareholders, strangely enough you are one of the closest to agreement on that. I don't really claim she is perfect on all attributes, just I trust her above ALL posters
all I know SCHEDULE 3.1(a)
SUBSIDIARIES OF THE COMPANY
1. Delcath Holdings Limited
2. Delcath Systems Limited
3. Delcath Systems UK Limited
4. Delcath Systems GmBH
5. Delcath Systems B.V.
Jennifer has never indicated b/o or partnership interest. also no pharmaceutical ever expressed interest here, right every one?
I don't think so, but lots of tidbits under schedule 3.1
Ancient history is rather individual, but who here should not be analyzed with a grain of salt or a dozen salt shakers. All that matters is today and whether I am making a smart buy, sale, or hold
If I was an expert at this stuff, I would have escaped some previous situations. Simpson my Goddess and her team are still heroically swinging, win or lose. Bond, Rap, Ticker, and other bulls may come out in superb shape. I am here to try to buy low, sell high, what a game
Possibly contemplated - my feeling is don't be duped into going all in on this, still a cagy risk/reward cat and mouse speculation