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Amazing what a little validation did for this beaten down stock. What would the SP be with a mid tier Pharma and $30M upfront. My guess is $2 plus. If we can follow this with on time BLA submission and strong TNBC cancer data in the next month we could be on our way to getting off the OTC w/o a R/S. Could realistically happen at BLA approval. Then we get serious.
One step at a time.
Here’s the bottom line.
Samsung can bring down the cost of 700 mg dosage COG per patient per year to $10k-$12k. AGC is our current manufacturer for BLA and initial product supplier for Vyera. They are triple the cost. Those are the facts. We will not shift to Samsung until next year if all goes right. If Samsung was our manufacturer for the BLA this would be different - they are not, not to mention the $15M needed to get into the cue for production with Samsung.
One of the challenges with the Vyera deal is maintaining profitable margin without pricing Leronlimab out of the combo space because of the COG on 700mg. This is an expensive molecule and the doubling of the initial dosage of 350mg to 700mg doubled the COG.
Numbers don’t lie.
That’s your world Dolphin. I appreciate your insight but know very little about it. At the end of the day the stock will move upward strongly when money issues have been derisked and the clinical data continues to mount.
Hood had me laughing when I think of the topic of the post being what it was.
This is not directed at you Dolphin.
I’m not disputing that. It’s the notion that he is running the company from prison. I spoke with Craig Eastwood today and they thoroughly vetted management and were impressed. This idea of getting in bed with a shady company is not what is happening here. Powers is righting the ship. Two hungry companies working together to get on the map. I like where we are today much more than where we were yesterday morning. It’s not what I hoped for but we had to get on the train at some point.
GLTU
I could care less. The crook is not running the company and hasn’t for years. Your quote that he’s running Vyera from a cell phone in prison is simply not true. Powers is at the helm and has a strong resume. Why don’t you highlight his persona since he is who CYDY will be in bed with.
Tony, thank you for your overview. I’m aligned with most of your observations. This is first step of many to come. I say that because I believe the science will continue to perform. Although Nader’s methodology and style is rough at best he is relentless. We will keep plodding along and have delays but the science is going to be revealed.
Have a great Christmas Holiday!
Lol
Well stated BL.
It did however solve a little piece so we got a little lift in SP. The short term SP hinges solely on BLA Approval and improving financial conditions. Better plan in place than we had pre-deal. 8 cents better so far. Hopefully better deals are around the corner and the SP will continue to tick upward with steady progress.
One side note on Vyera. The crook is in prison and not part of the company and hasn’t been for quite some time. The man at the helm has a strong resume and determined to right the ship. We can help each other go where we desire to go. That’s where stories are made.
I could care less what her play is. She is not a big investor but rather a blogger.
Fines, please reel it in and let this play out. Enough play by play. Please restrain yourself from reposting negativity. Once around the block is enough.
“This is a company run from a prison cell by a guy convicted of fraud using a "contraband" cell phone.”
You sound like you are connected to some pretty shady people yourself.
There is enough material here to paint the deal any way one chooses. My take is we are in a better position than we were this morning. As BH said beggars can’t be choosers.
Our pathway to revenue is now viable providing BLA approval and Nader is incentivized to make that the number one priority as it will get this company out of the gutter in terms of raising $.
It’s one step at a time and we just took the first step that will hopefully get us to the big steps. Many details to be determined to qualify the full scope of this deal.
I applaud Nader for pulling the trigger and taking the best option.
Is he the best man for the job? No, we can upgrade and do much better. Did you hear him on the CC. This man has a heck of a time communicating. It was a train wreck that was saved by the fact that he actually delivered the deal he promised. Not a Blue Chip BP that’s for sure but a company that believes in Leronlimab and it’s potential. We have to start somewhere and somewhere is better than yesterday’s nowhere.
Overall I’m a hole lot more bullish than I was this morning. As BH said onward and upward.
Or is he assuming CYDY will pay for that and operations over the next 2 months before needing more $$?
Yes, that is my understanding. If you read the PR Cytodyn is responsible for getting Leronlimab through the approval process. The question is are there upfront payments associated with BLA submission, acceptance, or approval, or all three and how much at each stage?
I have to believe it is BLA acceptance or approval. If it is acceptance rather than approval that would be a big deal. If it is just submission that’s bigger. All this obviously affects the urgency to raise $.
Agreed not the company I’d hoped for but a deal is better than no deal. One step closer to monetizing which is important in insuring this doesn’t leave us with empty pockets.
The next six months are critical. BLA submission, acceptance, and approval and advancement of mTNBC trials. It’s clear Nader is strapped in terms of cash and that is affecting enrollment. Incentivized to make BLA number one priority and that’s a good thing.
All in all more than I expected on this call. Now the reality of this deal will need to be digested to determine its value. For starters risk has been diminished. On the other hand we are still short $ in the short term.
Yes, that’s the way I read it. Not really any upfront cash other than the stock purchase.
Thank you for clarification. That’s a horse of a different color.
I heard 90 million up front period. If that is not so I would like to know.
Predictions of SP move tomorrow. If this doesn’t move the needle significantly I’ll be blown away.
This call was a total bust until the Licensing deal was announced. I was in total shock when I heard the 90 million up front. This means we are done with the BS private raises.
A wonderful Christmas present in that the money card has been taken off the table.
90 million up front
Well, you nailed that gestalt.
Just to dispel the Pestell selling. It had nothing to do with his belief in his own research, I believe he was dead broke and needed the money.
I respect your opinion. You may be right. My gut tells me the rope is shorter than it appears and I can’t stand the thought of this investment going into the proverbial ditch because of poor decision making. Time will tell.
Merry Christmas to you.
Ahab, I know you have been here a long time and loyal SH as am I. We all want the same thing and that is a return on our investment.
The difference here in this forum is what that return should be. That is why we are where we are IMO. If there is a disconnect between the person that controls the asset and the potential parties that are interested in purchasing the asset there will be no agreement. My angst and concern is we have limited resources to think that we completely control the value of the asset. This becomes a dangerous game in which our ROI is at risk.
My belief in our CEO to connect the dots is almost zero. All I have to base this opinion on is his performance. Coaches, Executives, Professional Athletes, and Employees get fired all the time based on performance. Often times they are very intelligent, competent people, they just weren’t able to get the job done for whatever reason.
This situation is as clear cut of an example of non performance as I have witnessed without consequence.
The science is for real as is it’s market potential. There is no arguing that point.
To your point a competent CEO would have frozen his salary and all salaries six months ago and completed the BLA.
Yes, instead he gives himself a raise for sinking the SP and Balance Sheet. Can’t imagine what kind of raise he will get if he were to consummate a deal.
That’s all I’m going to say. AIMHO.
Don’t be so sure. The pressure is mounting.
“My biggest gripe is that Nader hasn’t found a way to reward SH and giving them a path to cash out”
Greed can kill science no matter how strong it is. We have a incompetent miscalculating CEO that is well on his way to dismantling this investment. Worst case used to be $3-$5 per share, not anymore. As BL say he as always thought the company could sell the science for $500M - 1B in a day. Unfortunately we may find out if that is true in the next six months.
This is why Nader has to be replaced. His pathway is unreasonable for where we are currently in the development of Leronlimab. If we continue down this road the SP and Balance Sheet will back this investment further into a corner with diminishing leverage.
Most think BK is impossible. Well consider what that means - we get whatever the company can be auctioned off for when we are unable to hold off our creditors. You can only stretch this so far. The fact that we are in this position is inexcusable.
I know OHM will say we can always raise funds at .20 and then .10. Yes but how much and how many takers will there be with Nader’s inability to ever deliver. That will be the beginning of the end because it may not be enough and it will dilute this investment to oblivion. I know it doesn’t matter because the molecule is worth a minimum of $10-$20B. Does that strategy make one feel secure and confident. It just compounds the already high risk to ridiculous odds.
How long will it takes for SH’s and the BOD to come to their senses?
That’s not the point Ohm.
I’m no novice on the valuations and numbers - that’s my strong suit. I invested because of the strength of the science and the belief that there was value. I have no argument with the numbers.
As for Nader, read my posts. I was as strong of a supporter for Nader as anyone up until a few months ago. It has become apparent for reasons already stated that I believe he has taken the ball as far as he is capable of. He has fumbled the ball too many times so he needs to be benched.
We now desperately need a Quarterback with experience to navigate the last 20 yards. If you watch football it’s called the red zone or the scoring zone. For us as investors it’s the boom or bust zone.
This is very well stated BL.
“Can CYDY management fix the issue and close the gap between MC valuation and projected revenue valuation? To date, however, nothing management has done inspires confidence that they are up to the task. “
We are where we are because of very poor decision making based on one miscalculation after another. Why is it so difficult to see the forest for the trees? What is the common denominator? Is it not a pattern that Tony C left, then Pestell was terminated, and now Our CFO has been replaced? Our CEO does not tolerate anyone that disagrees with his way of thinking, period. The SP and balance sheet is in the toilet and it’s ALL on him.
Just view the last PI interview with Christine. A refreshing new face and voice and then back to the same mantra.
Dr. Patterson we need more of. Articulating the science and leaving it to what we know at this stage. Two patients in and the results are compelling although no where enough to start talking Cancer Cure.
Patterson will leave that conjecture to Nader, who first brings up the surprising turn of events that has changed his mother in laws life. After two injections she is on her feet cooking and feeling great. I am happy for her while I am disappointed once again with Nader’s lack of professionalism and talking about a Cancer cure. Wonder why he is not respected or taken seriously by BP?
That sets up his next move preparing shareholders for no deal because he has to be extremely careful at this stage because of the astronomical Cancer play.
Seriously this is his M.O. Now he has a way to justify no deal. What’s more insane is he has shareholders buying in thinking they have a 20-30 Billion $ buyout in our future. Maybe we do if he can some how raise the the capital and run the table for the next 5-10 years. Do shareholders want to risk there hard earned $ on that pathway? Apparently some do. OMH thinks anything under $15 per share or 10 Billion is paltry. We sit at .29 and he says anything under 50 times the current SP would be giving Leronlimab away.
Talk about irrational exuberance. This is how a great investment heads South. It’s like experienced mountain climbers that take on Mt. Everest. They are not as smart and disciplined at 29,000 feet. The climber knows that they have to eclipse the coveted summit by a specific time or turn back. If they don’t they are pushing the odds big time. The air is so thin they often don’t think clearly, push the window and end up dead.
Nader is pushing the window. That would be acceptable if it was just his money - oh that’s right he hasn’t invested any of his own money.
Ohm, what do you consider a paltry buyout offer and this point in Leronlimab’s development?
Misiu, I understand what is going on with the science. It is quite powerful. Unfortunately great science isn’t going to cross the finish line without financial support and prudent management decisions.
What once seemed impossible to me is a very real consequence. When the SP and balance sheet is driven into a very vulnerable position combined with trading on the OTC shareholders need to wake up to the possible.
Leverage is something that can be a beautiful tool when on the right side of the equation. At this juncture we are on the wrong side because our options to raise money has been severely compromised. I am not naive with our circumstances. This deal that Nader has been selling needs to have legs or you will see precisely what I’m describing.
There is nobody that will be more pleased with the deal Nader has outlined. What do you see as our financial options if this deal does not come to fruition?
I am prepared to face that reality and I don’t like what I see.
I’m calling it the way I see it Rabbit. Been a loyal Nader supporter for nearly seven years. I’ve seen this dance and am done being fooled. He is completely ineffective.
Forgive me Fortuno, but your survey is irrelevant because we are not going to be around in three years much less a year If Nader is not replaced. Without a change and a recovery plan we will be BK in less than one year and the SP will be zero.
Let me spell it out.
Successful CEO’s realize there strengths and weaknesses. They also understand the strengths and importance of those that make up the team because they understand that success is a team effort. The sum is greater than the individual parts.
We have a bully for a CEO that thinks he knows it all when in fact he is reckless and incompetent. If someone disagrees with his methodology and strategy they are eliminated.
How does that personality play out when negotiating. How does this type of ego and management style play out when sitting at the table with the intellect and experience of the scientists at say a Gilead. Our know it all CEO’s strategy is to use his vast HIV knowledge, vocabulary, and communication skills to educate Gilead on not only how HIV science works but the terms of the deal for his yet to be approved molecule. That makes for a short meeting with almost no chance of another shot. Duplicate this arrogance and ignorance a few more times and you acquire a reputation and a label. You are shut out because of your inability to articulate a powerful story and the science. Science cannot move without business savvy and packaging.
I am in no way a hater or a person that gets a rise out of attacking a CEO that is giving it his best shot. I’m a realist. My money is on the line and I want a fair shake.
IMHO it’s not going to happen unless some hard decisions are made.
We’ve had much bigger news and the SP headed South.
FDA Approval, start P3 Mono trial, and more patients for read out on TNBC that will carry enough weight to actually receive BTD from the FDA. That would definitely reverse the SP. All that is going to require time and $.
We can’t get to the holly grail w/o a partner/licensing deal. The current loan shark raising of $ is going to have us limping along and barely keeping the lights on.
Nader is good at stitching this together with bread crumb raises followed by countless delays. Let’s forfeit a chunk and get this across the finish line. It doesn’t matter how powerful the science is if you don’t have the means to develop it.
Nader is all but promising a deal any day. BLA submission is just waiting on go ahead from FDA on dosage-on schedule to complete in December. The future has never been brighter. If he pulls off both BLA submission and the deal he has detailed in December my hats off.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/908383/cytodyn-reveals-positive-data-on-metastatic-triple-negative-breast-cancer-trial-908383.html
I rethought the Eastwood move and while I like Craig and the way he thinks I am a bit reserved.
The question is why was he promoted and now Mulholland’s boss. Did Nader make the move because he wasn’t getting the support and agreement he wanted from Mulholland? Why would he replace a guy that has been with him from the very beginning and knows the financial framework better than anyone?
Throw the Pestell debacle into the mix and it makes one peel the layers of the onion a little deeper. Who is the common denominator. Nader seems to surround himself with only people that agree with his strategy. I good leader does the opposite knowing they need to be aware of different viewpoints because they don’t know it all. That is what an effective CEO does.
As witnessed on the conference calls Nader doesn’t tolerate differing opinions. Once again another piece of Nader’s form that is a red flag.
This is not about mutiny or thinking this message board is going to oust Nader. In fact the count should be deleted as it is in bad taste.
The point is to bring awareness to the BOD in reference to Nader’s performance and hold him accountable to the statements he makes. Shareholders need to know the statements are backed up with facts. To go as far as Nader has with his touted deal has to be substantiated. That is the BOD’s responsibility and they can be held liable if they ignore that responsibility.
To allow him to run his mouth and sell shareholders and the public on significant events that never occur is why the SP and balance sheet are where they are. As shareholders we have every right to voice our distrust and confidence in Nader’s competence.
IMO Nader has been given ample opportunity to bring in a partner at this stage of development. Why has this not come to fruition. My position is he does not possess the street credibility, understand the landscape, dialogue or language that is necessary. His job is to accurately calculate the value of Leronlimab at this particular point in time (not what it COULD be worth a year from now) and let a piece of the company go to guarantee a winner not a grand slam at the risk of striking out. We are not Humira.
His arrogance coupled with his skill set and miscalculations are slowly burying this company financially and alienating Cytodyn within the BP space. Nobody wants to play in Nader’s sandbox. The science is real and scalable we just need an experienced CEO with the network and street credibility to tell the story.
Nothing would make me happier than to see a PR with the details Nader has communicated. With all that has transpired over the years and following his form there is no logic in believing he’s going to deliver the much needed deal. Meanwhile we are running out of time and money and that really pisses me off.
You got that wrong Dolphin. Nader will say the deal was not enough so no deal.