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There are at least two kinds of traders, those who stare at charts and those who stare at the market factors. Charts give you raw data on the buying and selling patterns of other traders, data which can be used to predict the future buying and selling patterns of an analyzed stock. But at least for the moment, I think WDDD is a scenario where you throw most of the charts out the window for the time being. Why? For these reasons:
1. The event currently underway is historically unprecedented in the life of WDDD. There is no way for a chart to predict that which has no prior history in the company. Charts function extremely well where there is no news. But WDDD has news of a Markman, and of other similar companies with pre-Markman rise in share price, and of low float and undervaluation, and of some really great lawyers on the case, and of Activision with a history of settling, all of which the charts cannot see or account for.
2. This stock is not going to trade like a pump & dump, triple zero, penny stock. In the triple and double zero stocks, anyone with a piggy bank can buy one million shares and dump them on the market quite soon, but with this stock priced at 40 cents right now, many of the impetuous, trying-to-gain-enough-money-on-one-stock-to-pay-off-my-mortgage traders never enter, and for that we can be thankful. Moreover, this board has some great DD. Investors throwing a lot of money at this stock are well-informed. This produces a thoughtful collective and drives away a lot of would-be emotional investors, and for that we can be thankful.
3. As I mentioned before, WDDD investors appear patient. The whole premise of investing in WDDD is undergirded by a 4-month wait. Low volume on charts, therefore, does not equate to panic selling. "Why would anyone panic...we're hear for the Markman, haven't you heard, and that's not until June 27! Sit down, relax, and enjoy the ride..." We're all aware lower volume will come, but that is to be expected. It will be followed by the next wave of investors who became recently aware that WDDD even exists.
If you stand back and consider where WDDD is in reference to VHC, PRKR, and VRNG, it is chronologically after them. Investors who have learned a great deal about the patent litigation process are looking for the next play, of which WDDD is a great one. Therefore, I don't believe WDDD is going to have the same gradual rise in share price leading into the Markman that PRKR and VRNG did. Rather, I think the next 2 months (March especially, and April) are going to see a rather dramatic rise in the share price as new investors pour in early, ahead of the crowd (and thereby they become the crowd), and the last two months prior to the Markman (May, June), the price will churn, some shares will change hands, and there will be a small pop in price 1-2 weeks prior to June 27 due to investors wanting in and very few wanting out anymore.
What does this look like? I'm going to go out on a limb and do that which is ill-advised: offer a hypothetical share price, according to which I am trading (but according to which I'm not in any way recommending anyone else trade), based on the information above guided by that which already took place with PRKR and VRNG:
Market Capitalization (Share Price) Time Frame:
80 - 100 million (~$1.00 - $1.20) Late-March to Mid-April
80 - 120 million (~$1.00 - $1.50) Mid-April to Late May
120 - 140 million (~$1.50 - $1.80) June into the Markman
180 - 200 million ($2.20 - $2.50) June 28 if Markman success
I have no idea June 28 if Markman un-success
Whatever you do, don't view this with authority. These are my own thoughts on how this will go, and I'm trading accordingly, but do your own analysis to determine how you will trade. If this is helpful, great; if not, throw it out the door. Only time will tell the accuracy; hindsight, not foresight, is 20-20. Have a great day all.
ps-I will throw my own guess-estimates out the window if we receive news of other lawsuits. Other lawsuits, depending on the company sued, could easily bump up the prices 10-15%.
Here's the WDDD cycle as of the past few days:
1. Large buy pops price 2 cents;
2. Small profit takers sell a little dropping the price 1 cent;
3. Price churns and accumulates 1 cent higher than before;
4. Repeat.
And we're still only getting started.
Yeah...it's probably not a very bright move on my part. But, like I said, I genuinely wish those remaining well! I hope that by next week I'll look at my Scottrade ticker listing and see that VRNG is well above $5.00/share. I would be ecstatically happy for y'all, and I hope that will most certainly become the case!
Guys and gals, I'm out. I got burned for several thousand dollars here but learned a lot. I'm plugged in elsewhere now, but I do wish all here the pop in price that we've been waiting for but have yet to see. The cost of waiting here became too much for me. Another reason I exited is that each time I bought in heavily the price dropped and each time I sold a bunch the price went back up (no kidding, actually, I can chart my entry and exit points and almost every entrance was at a peak and each exit at a valley). I'm not superstitious, but, with tongue in cheek, and fully exited, I now expect JJ to rule soon and the price per share to rise through the roof! And I can say, sincerely, I will be VERY happy for each of you who are still invested. Thanks to those of you who sacrificed countless hours to supply us with DD.
Warmly,
Tink
The past hour illustrates what I have suspected true, that we may have assembled into WDDD a bunch of patient investors. In other stocks a momentary lack of volume means price drop due to impatient and skittish investors. But for WDDD a momentary drop in volume means the price just sits there, still as fence post, with no one to sell, waiting for the next buyer. Could it be that we have here assembled an investor group characterized by one word: patience? If so, and I think it highly likely, this will bode well in the future.
Yeah, I realized that after I received the email. Looks like the only way to obtain a Level 2 is by paying. Oh well; it was worth a try.
Those interested in a free level 2 can fill out a request form at this web address:
http://web.otcmarkets.com/level2/
Another reason I am greatly encouraged to invest in this stock is the complete lack of PR's, promotions, and company pumping. This is organic growth at its best, and once official press releases and substantive articles start coming out, this thing will be poised to take off with outside investors who were formerly unaware WDDD even existed.
If you locate a free level 2 would you be so kind as to post the web address at which it can be found? I would love to have one. Thanks in advance.
Good morning Coolerheads,
Your last post well describes my own investing philosophy, which is why I appreciate reading your posts. To further the illustration you commenced, and I'm rather sure you'd agree, there is nothing like DD to act as wax in the ears and ropes lashing us to the mast, preventing us from heeding the deceptive beauty of sirens and enabling us to maintain a steady course forward.
Happy sailing; glad to be on the same ship again; thanks for the quality ropes and wax,
Tink
.378; here's a dip; buy them while their cheap. Next leg up to .4+
Possibly, but is a 5-7 cent correction worth the risk of shorting, especially when the upside potential to this stock is huge?
It is hard for me to fathom why anyone would short this stock pre-Markman, and especially with the history of Susman and Godfrey and Tribble, and the history of Activision settling which is an acknowledgement of infringing. For those thinking of initiating a short position, for the sake of your pocketbook, you may want to study up on VRNG and PRKR pre-Markman. Shorting this stock after the Markman hearing makes a little sense, but shorting it right now seems like a great way to lose money. And if you're looking at WDDD's 5 year chart and concluding that, according to that historical chart, the price is bound to go down, at least be informed of this: WDDD has never been at this historical crossroads before. There has been nothing this tangible, with this great of potential. Keep that in mind. The 5-year high should be blown through in a matter of days, weeks, or months.
I don't care if people short this stock or not, but I do care that those shorting it at least be informed they risk losing a lot of money in the next couple months, or at least so says the historical data from pre-Markman stocks.
For those of you looking for a good entry or addition point (and I'll be one of them tomorrow, trying to add), two items of information may be helpful:
1. The low float which is being bought up fast is in the hands of many people unwilling to sell. Therefore, though this stock may undergo some pullbacks, my guess is they will be few and far between. I think the closest thing we'll see to a pullback or a "dip" is a plateau, with maybe a 2-3 cent drop, due to lower volume. If no one sells then the share price won't dip much.
2. The event upon which shareholders have fixed their gaze is yet 4 months away (Markman hearing, June 27). Therefore, very little will get them riled up between now and then. Patience in holding until June 27 appears to be a general consensus, so, again, this will hamper the likelihood of major dips.
The take-away?
1. Buy the dips as small as they may be.
2. Buy the plateau's.
Coolerheads ("Newbie" from the free forum, I presume?...),
I, too, have had to re-assess WDDD in light of VRNG and the sour taste it left in my mouth. I entered VRNG when it was above $5.00 (oops), which would be akin to entering WDDD when it's above $3.50 - $4.00. As of right now, WDDD is so low in price and market cap., and the information is so new to the broader market, that there is as of yet very little downside to it. If WDDD is trading above $2.00 pre-Markman then I would be the first to urge new investors to proceed with caution, but given the interview questions by Joe Natural, and the huge amounts of money already made on WOW by Activision, trading at anything below $1.50 or so pre-Markman shouldn't make anyone uncomfortable.
If you talk to the CEO today, could you ask him the following (if not, not big deal; I'll call him in a day or two. I don't want to inundate him)?
1. Would the amount of money WDDD seeks from Activision for infringement justify a market cap. (without multipliers) of $300 million? $500 million?
2. Does WDDD have additional streams of revenue in the works (i.e., additional lawsuits to be filed against infringers)?
If you get around to asking these, thank you very much.
Warmly,
Tink
I love it! Whisper back to them, "How do you know this stock cannot keep going up gradually until the Markman hearing? Did a little birdie tell you? How does that little birdie know?"
As far as I can tell, we've only just begun. Volume has only started to come in, and the more shares are locked up early in the game the higher the price will be for those who want to jump in later on. I agree with an earlier statement made that heading into the Markman hearing with a 200 million Market Cap. is fairly reasonable, if maybe a little much. I expect that on June 26 the market cap of WDDD will be between 100 and 120 million. What happens after that will be determined by the hearing, but it sure looks favorable at this point. And I agree with you, Rain, that investor interest may drive the price way over any of our predictions. The patents owned by WDDD are in a market which is making a ton of money right now.
Hey Rain,
Again, thanks for the heads-up on this stock; the only reason I'm here is because you mentioned it.
I concur with Mr. Level-headed in that I'd love to see your back-a-the-napkin sketch regarding a range of amount WDDD will seek against Activision for infringement. Anything you offer will be most useful. Thanks in advance.
Tink
What amazes me and is most encouraging is the hands into which this low float is falling: the hands of those interested in the Markman hearing 4 months from now. As people keep coming over to this thing in the coming months, the price will just keep going up and up. It would be interesting to find out just how many shares there are currently available in the hands of those willing to sell before Markman. I bet it's not many anymore.
Do you guys still think there are shorts who still have to cover? If so, I feel really bad for them...that's a lot of money they've lost, and if they don't cover soon, it's only going to become a larger loss. I really hope, for their sake, that no one is currently short on this stock. And if someone is short, how much longer do they wait to cover? Do they wait till the price is .5 or .6? Sorry for all the question on shorting; I've never done it, don't even know how to do it, and have no interest in ever shorting a stock.
I'm here to invest in a legitimate company with a legitimate patent claim, not to try to steal money from other investors. If you're that desperate for money that you have to come onto a stock message board and scare investors into selling into your hands, and then praise it to high heaven so you can sell it into the hands of others, then you need find a day job, or another one. How is what you're doing any different than stealing hard-earned money from others whom you intimidate? I'm confident that if you do get a job in which you work your tail off and come home tired, you'll quit trying to steal money from others who also worked hard and came home tired. If I were you, I'd be ashamed of myself.
A 2-hour chart?...are you serious? We're here for months, not minutes and hours. If you're not here to invest for a while, then just come and go and don't bother posting.
We can probably expect this each morning for a while until whoever is short covers. It's nothing more than a scare tactic, a tactic which has yet to work for him.
Well said regarding the float. Yesterday I took another 24,000 shares out of the float, and once I pull out of VRNG I intend to grab another 30,000. The more shares we get locked up here the more large volume will equate to large runs.
Great point. I'm rooting heavily for VRNG right now, still have a smaller position in it. Hope it goes well and that Judge Jackson grants a rather high RR.
Rain,
I thought about that possibility too, but I doubt WDDD would get hit very hard by it. WDDD has not yet gone to trial and received a jury verdict. If it gets that far then VRNG may become for WDDD a sort of paradigm, but for now, in our pre-Markman state, and even after the Marman hearing before the trial, I think WDDD will flourish regardless of the state of VRNG. However, WDDD's post-trial stock trading will probably be directly affected by the outcome of VRNG's post-trial judgments.
Tink
I'm holding all my shares through the Markman hearing. I'm almost finished accumulating (once I liquidate my holdings in VRNG entirely) and won't sell a bit of them until after June 27. With the strength of this case, I am very comfortable with "risking" holding through the Markman hearing for what I think is the high probability that the hearing is favorable to WDDD and the share price jumps another 20-40% overnight. That's what I'm waiting for!
Good luck with that...at this point, with Markman hearing coming closer, I don't know who in their right mind would drive the price down that low when all they would have to do is wait 5 minutes for more buyers to come in at increased prices. It's possible, but only if someone bid-whacks about 400,000 shares on the market at once, and that dip would soon be over and the price returned to where it started.
Well, let's use history to predict where the share price might be by the time of the Markman hearing on June 27. If, as it has been said, the price increases about 250% in the 4 months leading up to it, then let's use .3 as the start price for WDDD. 250% gains from .3 is $1.05/share.
I think we will know much more when we find out how much money WDDD is seeking from Activision...hopefully we see that news sooner rather than later.
The volume today was incredible...and to think, this thing has only just begun. Happy loading-up.
I did.
Actually, many of us here are just getting started loading our boats. I don't think you missed the boat just yet...if the share price were $1.2 right now, then I'd agree you missed the boat.
It's hard to buy shares; each time I try to buy them the ask gets pushed up and my bid goes unfulfilled. I'm guessing, then, that when the next round of buying pressure comes in this thing takes off on another leg up. People are buying and holding until Markman.
I know I'm biased, but I would sure hate to be short on this one right now!
No kidding it doesn't guarantee you anything...We all know that. But what it supplies us in the case of WDDD is a high likelihood that there will be a 30-40% jump in share price overnight, and what comes after that, if the language at the Markman is favorable to WDDD, is a great opportunity for someone to buy out WDDD, or a settlement, or a great court case. All companies and stocks are speculative, and this one is no different, but what is going to draw investors in, and what is currently doing so, is not the lack of speculation but the high probability of WDDD's courtroom success.
Wow, you must be desperate. I will be the first to point out the weaknesses of any stock I'm invested in, but if you think that shorts are going to drive down this share price pre-markman, then you haven't done much due diligence or comparison with relevant stocks. Good luck with your opinion; without being a pumper I respectfully, and adamantly, disagree. The likelihood WDDD has a successful Markman hearing is very high, which would drive the share price up 30-40% overnight. People want in on that opportunity.
Thank you for the answer...extremely helpful. I asked it to help inform me of when best to add more shares of WDDD to my account. Given what you just wrote I will try to add more sooner rather than later.
Thanks; could you state "Why not?" in a sentence or two? Thanks in advance for your time.
I read your answers before I wrote; none of them answered my question. No big deal, really. It appears you are unable to entertain the notion that a "short" may disagree with your assessment of the outcome of the Markman hearing, and in the absence of your ability to believe that the Markman might not go well you are unable to supply me with insight into the investing strategies of those who disagree with you (those who don't think Markman will go well). I should probably address my question to a short...he would understand it.
Good night; thanks for your time.
You haven't answered my question...here it is again: Is it at all possible that there will be no pre-Markman short squeeze because they are willing to gamble that the Markman hearing will be a failure for WDDD and the price will return back down to .1, allowing them to get out profitably? Would a strategy such as this be in the realm of possibility for the shorts, or is this strategy so ludicrous that there will most certainly be a pre-Markman short squeeze? TIA; sleep well tonight.
Is it possible, and I only ask the question, and ask it out of ignorance, that there will be no short squeeze simply because they shorts will gamble that the Markman hearing will not materialize for WDDD and the price will then return back to .1?