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Just So Ya Know the EPA is Going to Come Out With 2014s Ethanol Mandate Gallons
( politico story By ERICA MARTINSON | 11/15/13 2:22 PM EST )
www.politico.com/story/2013/11/epa-ethanol-mandate-99928.html
- EPA expects to make a final decision by this spring.
So We May need to be Aware.
Winter Solstis is December 22nd , So Before March 22
Don't Think It Will Supersede PEIX earnings , because the Mandate reduction is Already Priced In.
But there May be Some Shock and Awe before We Continue Up On Great Earnings Continued Margins and Anticipation Of Higher 2015 Mandate #s.
2 Million shares Of the short position Started their short Position Below $5 , you can see it on the nasdaq site by date.Yesterday Was the Highest Closing Price All Year.
Put Your Chart Next to This , and You will Realize How Many UPSIDE DOWN shorts There Are.
Settlement Date Short Interest
12/31/2013 2,532,087
12/13/2013 2,564,282
11/29/2013 2,556,717
11/15/2013 2,474,711
10/31/2013 2,117,972
10/15/2013 2,007,891
9/30/2013 1,892,046
9/13/2013 1,767,035
8/30/2013 1,789,560
8/15/2013 1,480,022
7/31/2013 1,197,865
7/15/2013 1,121,704
6/28/2013 1,056,435
6/14/2013 937,223
5/31/2013 844,206
5/15/2013 659,801
This is the KEY!!
Shares Short (as of Dec 13, 2013)3: 2.56M
Short Ratio (as of Dec 13, 2013)3: 3.60
Short % of Float (as of Dec 13, 2013)3: 24.90%
including inst. ownership and inside ownership.
So float is about 10 million shares and 25% short which is HUGE!!!
Key Statistics by SuperID
Once this hits $7.00 plus they will realize their Dilemma
Heeber,I Suspect a Double by around Earnings from Here
Just my Opinion Based On Current Conditions,and PEIX history
During these Type of Market Conditions.
Pacific ethanol New 52 week high Closing price Today
he he he.....
http://t.co/09RF2avWXT
YMB Posting News http://t.co/De89JZSri7
Yahoo and Earnings Whisper est. of earnings date
Yahoo
Company Events
Date Event
Mar 24 - Mar 28, 2014 (Est.) Earnings announcement
Earnings Whisper ®: N/A
Consensus Estimate: N/A
Surprise Expectation 1:
Release Date: [not confirmed] 2/5/2014
After Close
Expected Time 2: 4:35 PM ET
Conference Call: N/A
Pacific Ethanol Has Been Known to Report Earnings In Febuary ,and they Generally Report Early if their Earnings are Good (Historically).
But Your Guess is as Good as Mine.
Ray finds out he is on the wrong team | Meemsy.com
meemsy.com/v/5926?
Ethanol margins more charts https://t.co/6lL0aTUIma http://t.co/AgnlzwSkFx
The Energy Report: Keith, there is an ethanol "renaissance" http://t.co/iRTtuddLCP
Ethanol margins http://t.co/eSNlb61EoC http://t.co/CwVYUiZJEm
2 Diff PEIX Research Reports http://t.co/QZ1Pa4736U http://t.co/BriFm2dNQD
research piece
http://y.ahoo.it/NHI2JbxB
Margins 50 cents According to U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA Analyst contributors: Irene Olson, Sean Hill
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=14171 …
Expectations for a record corn harvest in 2013 have helped lower corn prices since this summer, improving ethanol production margins and spurring an increase in the supply of ethanol.
During the 2012 corn-growing season, the United States experienced the most severe and far-reaching drought since the 1950s. By late August 2012, approximately 85% of the corn grown in the United States was located in a drought area, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) World Agricultural Outlook Board. A projected 2012 record crop of 14.8 billion bushels of corn dwindled to a final production level of 10.8 billion bushels by the end of last year's harvest period.
Abundant snow and rainfall in late winter and early spring revived prime corn-growing land. For 2013, the USDA is predicting a record-high corn crop of 14.0 billion bushels, a 30% increase over 2012. Much of the United States is still experiencing drought in 2013, but large portions of the Midwest avoided prolonged drought during the critical growing months.
The ethanol margin, the difference between the market price of ethanol and its cost of production adjusted by the value of co-products, is a measure of the profitability of producing ethanol. Between October 2012 and January 2013, the ethanol margin for producers was close to zero. The recent reduction in corn prices had a major impact on the profitability of ethanol production, because purchased corn is by far the largest cost incurred by ethanol producers. On average, one bushel of corn can be used to produce 2.8 gallons of ethanol.
Between January and November 2013, corn prices fell from about $7.50 per bushel to below $4.50 per bushel. A $3 reduction in the price of a bushel of corn translates into a roughly $1.08 reduction in the cost of ethanol production. While ethanol prices have also declined, ethanol producer margins have risen above $0.50 per gallon in recent months.
GERS is Losing the Suit to DEEP DEEP Pockets Including VLO , REX and 24 Others GERS Losing Frivolous lawsuit has been Going On for 3 Years
Patent Infringement Litigation List
Ethanol Producers
1. Pacific Ethanol, Inc, CA
2. Guardian Energy, LLC, MN
3. Adkins Energy LLC, Lena, IL
4. ACE Ethanol, LLC Stanley, WI
5. Western New York Energy, LLC NY
6. Lincolnway Energy, LLC Nevada, IA
7. Bushmills Ethanol, Inc. Atwater, MN
8. Cardinal Ethanol, LLC Union City, IN
9. Little Sioux Corn Processors, LLP, IA
10. Blue Flint Ethanol, LLC Underwood, ND
11. Al-Corn Clean Fuel, LLC Claremont, MN
12. Aemetis Advanced Fuels Keyes, Inc, CA
13. Big River Resources Galva, LLC Galva, IA
14. Lincolnland Agri-Energy, LLC Palestine, IL
15. Homeland Energy Solutions, LLC Lawler, IA
16. Heartland Corn Products, LLC Winthrop, MN
17. Big River Resources West Burlington, LLC, IL
18. Chippewa Valley Ethanol Co., LLLP Benson, MN
19. Iroquois BioEnergy Company, LLC Rensselear, IN
20. United Wisconsin Grain Producers, LLC Friesland, WI
21. Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy, LLC, Council Bluffs, IA
22. Valero Energy Corporation San Antonio, TX
23. REX American Resources Corporation Dayton, OH
24. ICM Worldwide Colwich, Kan
GERS Can No Longer Support their Frivilous Law Suit as they Have NO Money and Will be Going Bankrupt VERY Soon.
GERS Market Cap was 50 thousand dollars yesterday
PEIX Hitting the Screeners BIG Today
finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=210&ft=2&t=,ITT,PEIX,PL,WBMD
http://t.co/Wb5NnwWRs8
Penny Stock Pumpers Hitting It Hard Too
$FOXA $PEIX $SGI $CHFN $CRVL http://t.co/eyyLus2R7R
7 Hours Ago · Like · Comment · Reply · Retweet · Favorite
$PFE $AKR $PEIX $ABIO $UFPT http://t.co/kWDESs0NZL
4 Hours Ago · Like · Comment · Reply · Retweet · Favorite
$BMY $PEIX $JOSB $WMIH $PCRX http://t.co/dA6HMSdhXW
6 Hours Ago · Like · Comment · Reply · Retweet · Favorite
$FOXA $PEIX $SGI $CHFN $CRVL http://t.co/eyyLus2R7R
7 Hours Ago · Like · Comment · Reply · Retweet · Favorite
chartmills Golden Cross Charts From Today Including PEIX
http://t.co/Wb5NnwWRs8
PEIX will be On Chartmills Golden Cross Screener Tomorrow http://t.co/Wb5NnwWRs8
Here's the best part
1. The balance sheet is as clean as possible
2. The company has Extreemly positive crush margin spreads
3. The Other 9% of the 100% Ownership will be bought with Profits this Quarter for CHEAP.
Investors have the green lights to get long the stock , because "shareholder value" has been Increased and profitablity has return.
the only thing traders will need to watch are the basic input v. ouput metrics like:
1.) corn costs
2.) ethanol costs
3.) NG costs
4.) transportation costs.
Watching those prices allow investors care free glimpses into their potential profitability each quarter and free them of dilution concerns.Their marketing division rocks and in positive crush margin periods you'll see quarterly operational profit.
It's a Good Thing Dutch,Finally!
http://t.co/xTL6UqBgMs
Crossing as We Speak
Pacific Ethanol Shares Outstanding: 15.54M
Valuation Measures
Market Cap (intraday)5: 90.29M
Enterprise Value (Jan 10, 2014)3: 192.40M
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): N/A
Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2014)1: N/A
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: -0.19
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.10
Price/Book (mrq): 1.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 0.22
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: 31.01
Financial Highlights
Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends: Dec 31
Most Recent Quarter (mrq): Sep 30, 2013
Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm): -1.67%
Operating Margin (ttm): -0.65%
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm): -1.59%
Return on Equity (ttm): -23.79%
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 890.16M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 81.31
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 8.30%
Gross Profit (ttm): -19.52M
EBITDA (ttm)6: 6.20M
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): -16.14M
Diluted EPS (ttm): -1.47
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): N/A
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 9.18M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.59
Total Debt (mrq): 122.62M
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 146.31
Current Ratio (mrq): 3.32
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 4.90
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm): -4.55M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): -3.39M
Beta: 3.76
52-Week Change3: 10.67%
S&P500 52-Week Change3: 24.83%
52-Week High (Feb 15, 2013)3: 7.05
52-Week Low (Nov 14, 2013)3: 2.33
50-Day Moving Average3: 4.32
200-Day Moving Average3: 3.83
Share Statistics
Avg Vol (3 month)3: 548,038
Avg Vol (10 day)3: 634,729
Shares Outstanding5: 15.54M
Float: 14.83M
% Held by Insiders1: 9.02%
% Held by Institutions1: 10.60%
Shares Short (as of Dec 13, 2013)3: 2.56M
Short Ratio (as of Dec 13, 2013)3: 3.60
Short % of Float (as of Dec 13, 2013)3: 24.90%
Shares Short (prior month)3: 2.56M
Dividends & Splits
Forward Annual Dividend Rate4: N/A
Forward Annual Dividend Yield4: N/A
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3: N/A
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3: N/A
5 Year Average Dividend Yield4: N/A
Payout Ratio4: N/A
Dividend Date3: N/A
Ex-Dividend Date4: N/A
Last Split Factor (new per old)2: 1:15
Last Split Date3: May 14, 2013
The numbers will Differ with Sugar,Debt,Sorgum,Corn oil at Stockton,Dividend Payment,Stock Options or Shares for Management,
Cellunator,If Madera Opens/Costs,Buying back the Other 9% Ownership....
None of That Is Factored In
Pacific Ethanol Q4 2013 Earnings Estimate Chart
http://t.co/Z8AJMLa3hF
Return Over Operating Costs per Gallon
http://t.co/MSzYkppQ9w
Keith Schaefer says the crush spread, is higher than forty cents per gallon with an eight-month pathway of visibility with unbelievable margins.
What a Person Must Realize is that is On the Futures Market,where Ethanol is Aprox. $2 a Gallon.
Most people don't Realize Pacific Ethanol is Mainly a Spot Price Player.
Currently West Coast Ethanol is $2.60 per gallon
So Net Margins are Around 40 cents per Gallon Nationally
(Not Gross Margins)http://t.co/eSNlb61EoC
At Net Margins of 40 cents Nationally,That is Margin = 20% of ethanol futures price
Gross Margins Have been Aprox. 90 cents to $1.35 for Nov./Dec. Q4 to Present Nationally.
So Nationally 40 cents a gallon NET,the rest of the 90 cents to a $1.35 to Pay the Costs of Doing Buis.
In 2011 Q3 Pacific Ethanol for the Quarter Produced 12 cents per share earnings,before the 15 makes 1 reverse split.
Split Adjusted thats $1.80 per share they Made in 1 Quarter.
Can They Do that Again ?
I Don't Know
But If They Do , Thats Frigging CRAZY !
Keith Schaefer of The Energy Report On Ethanol Outlook
http://t.co/nrbrYsZk6V
Seeking Alpha Interview of Keith Schaefer of The Energy Report
Banking On Ethanol And High-Tech Fracking: Keith Schaefer
Jan 9, 2014 3:28 PM
Keith Schaefer: Ethanol is one of the most volatile sectors in the energy complex. The industry almost went bankrupt during the crash of '08. It rebounded; 2010 and 2011 were fantastic years for ethanol, with great profits. Then, the drought of 2012 caused corn prices to soar and ethanol profitability collapsed. But here we are a mere year later, enjoying the largest bumper crop of corn in American history. Corn is the main input price for ethanol; its cost determines the rate of profit. With corn locked into low costs for a few quarters, ethanol companies are minting money.ethanol cannot be hedged out more than nine months. And as the new corn crop gets ready for reaping, there is no visibility beyond three months. It is an incredibly volatile sector.But, right now we have about an eight-month pathway of visibility with unbelievable margins. Including the byproducts-corn, oil and distiller's grain-the margin for ethanol, which is commonly called the crush spread, is higher than forty cents per gallon.
The technical signal in question is called a “golden cross.” A golden cross develops when a shorter-term moving average rallies to cross above a longer-term moving average. Because the shorter-term moving average reflects more recent price action relative to the longer-term moving average, this kind of development is typically interpreted by market technicians as a significantly bullish sign
"Golden Cross" is interpreted by many as a sign that the market is turning long-term bullish.These patters usually confirm major changes of market direction. A "Golden Cross" Is generally considered a Green Light indicator to experienced chart readers.Technicians see the Golden Cross as the ultimate bullish signal
Since 2007, the S&P 500 has shown a Golden Cross pattern 5 times, and stocks rallied 4 out of 5 times.
chartmills is one Website that screens for the Golden Cross , and is quite often referred to by experienced chart readers for Bullish and Bearish cross over ideas.Crossovers add horsepower to many types of trading strategies.
Make That Dolla Super !
Yup,Super
(2 Million Short Shares that are UNDER WATER)
The last time PEIX price per share was $5.81,was last year in March
There was Only 687,616 shares short at that time according to Nazdaq.
As Of 12/13/2013 there Was 2,564,282 Short Shares.
2,564,282
- 687,616
---------
2M Under Water short shares
statistics show 4 out of 5 times fierce rallying as a result of the Golden Cross Pattern
Golden Cross pattern happens when the 50 day moving average (indicative of the short-term trajectory)
Crosses Up thrue the 200 day moving average (indicative of the long-term trajectory)
http://t.co/Ckvxxe7Zzv
Look for PEIX to Go Out In Tomorrows Golden Cross News Letters like this one among others
http://t.co/vYUM0i7SdG
Golden Cross Trajectory ,It WILL Happen Tomorrow
50 DMA $3.93 Moving Up Easily 5 cents a Day and the 200 DMA at $3.98
http://t.co/Ckvxxe7Zzv
ENJOY !!!
card Ethanol Operating Margins
http://t.co/uYEcOgobiY
Opis Ethanol Data for Nov.,Dec.
http://t.co/cocVOX0S9C
US. Dept. Ag. Ethanol Summary
http://t.co/0PAUxpCwCN
corn crush spread graph
http://t.co/TYW0Ulm3Gr
ethanol margin
http://t.co/eSNlb61EoC
Pacific Ethanol Q4 2013 Earnings Estimate Chart
http://t.co/Z8AJMLa3hF
Golden Cross Trajectory 4 Days MAX
http://t.co/BzHGSZdE2k
PPS is Running Just above the 8 DMA
http://t.co/Ihrzl1evFd
Bull Flag
https://t.co/Rv131CX1AE
Extensive Fourth Quarter 2013 Interview Of The CEO
http://t.co/GOeYO40wIK
Golden Cross Trajectory 4 Days MAX http://t.co/BzHGSZdE2k
I like it murph
The PPS Running Just above the 8DMA(Playable)
http://t.co/Ihrzl1evFd
Next Target $6.2 http://y.ahoo.it/BKGAppzy