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Possibly the buyer put his order in high so MMs would not pull back the ask after filling only a token 100 shares, you think? I saw MMs playing games with CCME a few days ago when I was chasing the lower numbers. I tried to wait till a level 2 bid was there behind the lowest ask that actually had more substantial share count. That way they didn't were less likely to play those 100 share lot games.
"A large purchase of an existing facility in another city"
They are going in the right direction because:
(1) They have sufficient facilities in current geographic region.
(2) A large facility multiply earnings much more vs. medium size
(3) Cash plus shares is better than shares only
(4) Cash needed for filling the new tanks and advances to suppliers -- I have a hunch that during the December 2010 diesel shortage that any wholesalers who had NOT paid money in advance might have been pinched out of being able to obtain refinery supplies during the time of greatest demand
So how do you explain we hit $3.95 last fall with a low P/E?
It will happen again.
$2.30s in your dreams.
"Dillusion"? Did you pass fourth grade, Zester?
I also don't think you ever looked up the meaning of the word, "accretive", that must have gone over your head, too.
Recap of conference call anyone?
I'm kind of busy with work deadlines today so I'd appreciate anyone who can do a quick recap of the most salient information, beyond what is already stated in the 10Q.
Thanks in advance.
LPH: Using diluted sharecount, TTM-GAAP EPS = $0.51 = $0.10 + $0.25 + $0.04 + $0.12
Technically, non-GAAP numbers are a better way to evaluate the business's profitability and growth for the long term investor, since the non-cash adjustments due to change in fair value of outstanding warrants do not affect the company's cash flow or operations whatsoever. (Although when warrants get cashed in that does add $2.255/warrant to cash on hand.) However, as we pointed out many times, the stock screening software used by many of the major services do present fully diluted sharecount as if all warrants are converted.
At yesterday's closing price of $2.59, that's a TTM P/E = 5.1.
Prior to 10Q, old TTM EPS = $0.24 = -$0.15 + $0.10 + $0.25 + $0.04
Using yesterday's closing price of $2.59, the old TTM P/E = 10.8
So with this earnings release, TTM GAAP EPS increased 112 percent,
and TTM GAAP P/E just DECREASED 53 percent (from 10.8 to 5.1)
LPH: Using diluted sharecount, TTM-GAAP EPS = $0.51 = $0.10 + $0.25 + $0.04 + $0.12
Technically, non-GAAP numbers are a better way to evaluate the business's profitability and growth for the long term investor, since the non-cash adjustments due to change in fair value of outstanding warrants do not affect the company's cash flow or operations whatsoever. (Although when warrants get cashed in that does add $2.255/warrant to cash on hand.) However, as we pointed out many times, the stock screening software used by many of the major services do present fully diluted sharecount as if all warrants are converted.
At yesterday's closing price of $2.59, that's a TTM P/E = 5.1.
Prior to 10Q, old TTM EPS = $0.24 = -$0.15 + $0.10 + $0.25 + $0.04
Using yesterday's closing price of $2.59, the old TTM P/E = 10.8
So with this earnings release, TTM GAAP EPS increased 112 percent,
and TTM GAAP P/E just DECREASED 53 percent (from 10.8 to 5.1)
LPH earnings out: P/E just dropped -54 percent
My predictions of Q EPS & warrant fair value were right on:
12/31/2010 quarterly EPS fully diluted:
Actual = $0.13
My prediction = $0.128
12/31/2010 fair value of warrants outstanding:
Actual = $14,664,070
My prediction = $14,253,152
Change in Fair value of warrants from previous quarter:
Actual = $2,174,000
My prediciton = $1,763,000
(Insignificant compared to net earnings)
Given current share price of $2.59,
As of 2/14/2011 P/E = 10.8
As of 2/15/2011 P/E = 5.0
(P/E dropped by -54 percent, making LPH undervalued)
Because P/E is very undervalued, PPS is going to rise until approximately P/E = 8.0, corresponding to a PPS = 4.15,
or a P/E = 9.0, corresponding to a PPS = 4.65.
That represents PPS appreciation of 60 to 80 percent.
LPH earnings out: P/E just dropped -54 percent
My predictions of Q EPS & warrant fair value were right on:
12/31/2010 quarterly EPS fully diluted:
Actual = $0.13
My prediction = $0.128
12/31/2010 fair value of warrants outstanding:
Actual = $14,664,070
My prediction = $14,253,152
Change in Fair value of warrants from previous quarter:
Actual = $2,174,000
My prediciton = $1,763,000
(Insignificant compared to net earnings)
Given current share price of $2.59,
As of 2/14/2011 P/E = 10.8
As of 2/15/2011 P/E = 5.0
(P/E dropped by -54 percent, making LPH undervalued)
Because P/E is very undervalued, PPS is going to rise until approximately P/E = 8.0, corresponding to a PPS = 4.15,
or a P/E = 9.0, corresponding to a PPS = 4.65.
That represents PPS appreciation of 60 to 80 percent.
LPH ** earnings this week **
Expect GAAP EPS over $0.12-$0.13.
Expect change in fair value of warrants less than $1.7M (less than 10 percent of net income - negligible)
Expect trailing 12 months GAAP EPS to drop the 12/31/09 negative quarterly EPS .... -0.15 Q goes away and is replaced by +0.13.
Expect P/E to drop negative -52 percent instantly making LPH undervalued and a big hit on the stock screeners
Starts this week.
That's a little more realistic. Growth companies NEVER give away all their profits to shareholders, NEVER.
And as far as bias goes, what I said is essentially consistent, now that you say you are in cash, I'm sure this being options expiration week, you would sure like there to be more downwards PPS pressure as it would allow you to deploy cash. So while you are not short, you are hoping for the lowest entry.
You must admit you do exaggerate when you get carried away, which is fairly often with CCME in the last 2 weeks. Your opinions float in the wind depending on what direction you want your cash to flow for a good deal. NOT the kind of due diligence and unbiased reasoning I'm used to seeing here on CGS.
Go ahead and express your opinion, however, I am also going to call you out when it gets absurd and starts to sound purely like spin.
GLTA.
I'm now convinced you ARE short, rato.
At first I thought you were being your usual self, some of your imaginative arguments ended up being the thesis of new hit pieces on seekingalpha, but I just chalked it up to your inquisitive and creative mind.
Now you question, "Why aren't they paying 100% of cash flow as a dividend, rather than the "token" 5% to 10% of cash flow that has been proposed?" "There is just no reason why it shouldn't be paying a 2.00 to 3.00 annual dividend right now."
Ummm, yes, there are a few reasons, not just one reason for that not being a good idea for long term for CCME (or for shareholder value as measured by long term growth and ROI). Firstoff, what company have you EVER heard of in China that gives out 100% in dividends? Not even the state owned oil giants CNOOC or PTR do that. CCME, like all companies, want to preserve capital because it is the lifeblood of both survival (the rainy day chest) and the fuel for growth. Without growth, in 5 years the competition will have grown yet CCME will have stood still. In advertising and especially digital media advertising, you have to be looking for the latest edge on exploiting new markets, new platforms, and innovative ways to more efficiently and more broadly sell advertising. You can't do that with tying up all your profits in dividends. Look at what companies give out the highest dividends -- they are companies who have a foolproof monopoly like phone companies. Even that is becoming a bad example - G-networks are changing so fast that any digital communications firms that don't reinvest their profits into developing and rolling out the latest technology are going to lose customers to their competition.
What happened to Andy Li's instablog -- is he editing it? I see no reason why it would get pulled.
When yahoo boards get to 70% bashers for 3 weeks it signals a market bottom. At least that was the case last August.
Rick could you clarify in comments RE short term bets was what you were referring to?
The reason being is that your opinions are widely read and respected, I don't think you intend to cause an avalanche of longs selling when you really meant for those that were using options. You can edit under the user comments to avoid too many readers acting like lemmings; that is what started this whole knee jerk reaction anyway, the herd mentality instead of the wait-and-see mentality.
Rick I do believe your intentions are honorable and thank you for posting here and writing as a Street contributor.
That being said, the long community is in a different boat than the options community. Furthermore, BOTH sides are sensitive to any potential "sheep scaring" at the moment.
The impact of today's article on TheStreet would be MUCH more beneficial to investors were they to have read it when CCME was at $19 to $23, not AFTER a short attack.
While I have recently added to my long position in CCME, I did so by maintaining a constant percentage of high risks holdings in my portfolio by simultaneously selling an equivalent value of other OTC stocks that were already considered in the highest risk category.
CCME is not marginable by most brokerages at this moment anyway, so whatever your long holdings are, the stock direction won't affect margin equity thresholds.
Someone please do an IP domain check on DeloitteWatch, thank you
Big blocks sold CCME. Short manipulation now and PPS in $11.40s.
Next week will be a big rebound again.
CCME was recategorized as unmarginable well over a week ago by all the major investment firms. So those with big positions in CCME had to reallocate their portfolios last week, not this week. More likely this week's downdraft was just general negative sentiment due to interest rate hikes and CCME short attacks. Next week is earnings and even if macro sentiment remains cool at this time, LPH will be sitting with a nice attractive P/E after earnings, so just give it time. It will happen.
Added more CCME at $12.20. Now I have a portly portfolio belly full of CCME.
Added more CCME. Now I have a portly portfolio belly full of CCME.
You probably ignored those pre-checked boxes that said to install the ASK toolbar. On my home computer I made sure I unchecked all that crap.
Work IT security blocked me from installing chat. Oh well, I get more work done that way, LOL.
Not true. They're chatting instead of typing is all.
First IHub CCME or China stock post?
Not listed in "DayTraders Stocks and Bonds"
Seeing only these rooms listed below:
MindOverMarket com Premier Platnum
MindOverMarket com LiveTeam ProTraders
Forex Traders Room
Connected Traders
fred frecklheads hotdog trible trades
Two Percent Club
trade news
2243 Pips in Jan2011 NoLosingWeeks MyEuroForex
The Stock Haven
I Trend
Oil and Gold profit Scalp
Traders Freemasons The Apocryphal Trading Group
StockBarometer Market Chat
The Jerry Olson Trading Team Guest Welcom
3 Blind Mice ES Traders
access a trader
Trading with Foresight
Bulls n Bears
Forex Funds Management
Kentucky Fried Trading
Mkt Cycle concluded Traders PM MarketEye
Tfaliving com
---------------------
3 additional rooms in other languages
I cannot find "CGS" room -- it's not appearing.
Do I need a pay subscription?
Only dropped PPS 20c, then a big buyer grabbed 56K shares.
Tootalljones: My perspective is a bit different. I've been in several different CGS stocks and I am well aware that ANY stock can be attacked. In particular, the hard-to-understand business model of CCME's advertising margins made me skeptical way back last summer. But over the course of the fall and winter I read a lot of good due diligence on CCME and was impressed with what I saw. However, I still didn't make a first buy in the high teens/low 20s because I had a hunch that Mr. Market could create selling pressure in the event of either negative macro sentiment or a short attack on CCME, even given that this stock is in the cream of the crop as far as well-vetted China stocks.
Therefore, I made a first buy AFTER the short attacks had brought down the price, since at that point short term AND long term risk-reward both looked favorable and pretty safe. As far as those who bought high well before the short attacks, they need to remember that investing horizons will always vary, and you haven't lost money until you sell. Therefore, almost all short attacks that are completely lacking in substance and which are successfully refuted will have waning residual effects that do not last for much more than a few weeks to a couple months. A very undervalued stock with a solid reputation like CCME will eventually recover and surpass previous highs if it is truly solid and has growing earnings without excess dilution.
However, that notwithstanding, there will always be a "risk-premium" built into the valuation assigned by the market for US-listed China stocks, so you really cannot ever expect P/E to fully approach that of many of the typical comparable US companies. JMHO. GLTA.
Actually, this is a serious question:
It has always intrigued me that when I compare the content of many of the short posters on Yahoo to the normal range of content for Yahoo long posters, I have the following observations:
(1) Extensive use of derogatory adjectives to describe longs;
(2) Grammatical errors with all caps and repeated letters;
(3) Absurdly exaggerated loss predictions for longs;
(4) Frequent use of miss-spelled profanity;
(5) Allegations of fraud but without explaining in any way, shape, or form, exactly what data led them to reach this conclusion.
Throughout grade school, a threatening communication style, constantly derogatory and obscene language innuendo, very poor writing skills, absurd exaggerations, and critical comments completely lacking in any basis whatsoever to support one's thesis or position were considered to be qualities that strongly correlate with poor communication skills, dysfunctional social development, pathological aggression, and lowered IQ range.
So if the short side positions are so profitable, why are there so many idiots out there on Yahoo touting short positions with such an infantile writing style?
I find it hard to believe that all of those posters are actually that big of idiots in real life as they appear. If they are just pretending to act this way, then what is the psychology behind this approach for communication - it can't be very effective at convincing people, can it? Or is it possible that Yahoo truly does attract sociopaths, bullies, and criminals in droves to post as shorts on message boards?
Just a thought for some serious comments or discussion.
There should be a US law that states that it is illegal to publish on any commercial website any article that mentions a specific stock in a negative light from a contributing author, unless the author of the hit piece has an independently verified US telephone # and physical address That way if anyone just "happens" to find out they violated securities laws and committed fraud by fabricating evidence that places the company in a negative light, they are fully accountable for the consequences of publishing information with the intent to manipulates markets.
That should be the standard for ANY REPUTABLE publishing agency or media outlet in the 2011 internet world. There has to be accountability.
The CCME story is just getting started. Stay tuned.
Muddy Waters has no phone number or physical address in the US where they can be reached. Mr. Chimin Sang is probably offshore, too. However, Mr. Andrew Left was just arrested on unrelated charges last month, so he may still be in Florida.
Suggest the article follows this storyline:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=59711605
"Fraud May Be Running Rampant Among Companies Alleging Fraud"
The above is an example headline of what needs to be exposed by the news media.
Start off with a recitation of the facts about this month's news where a judge sactioned an ex-con and supposed fraud investigator who was proven to be a lying short seller in Miami that we posted here yesterday.
Transition with talking about the background of many of the short sellers is actually in question. Reader due diligence should be always exercised in researching the author's integrity and reputation.
Cite the example of the felony convictions of Andrew Left with references.
Next address the topic of readers should pay particular attention to the sources of information with any fraud allegation.
Then discuss the Chimin article which contains evidence that tax filing statements were fabricated.
Then discuss the Muddy Waters article which contains evidence that the spreadsheet was fabricated.
*** I recommend someone with good CPA skills and detailed knowledge of SAIC/SAT filings write this article.
**** It should be submitted to a much higher level of visibility than merely SeekingAlpha. TheStreet.Com, MarketWatch, and Forbes should be our target publishers.
Does anyone on I-Hub know any of the contributing authors in either TheStreet, MarketWatch, or Forbes, and have the ability to collaberate with them?
If someone does, they should send them a straw man proposal with the above outline, followed by links to the best websites where specific items have been shown to be fraudulent, then closing with an offer to collaberate on the article.
Write all three publishers at once.
"Fraud May Be Running Rampant Among Companies Alleging Fraud"
Start off with a recitation of the facts about this month's news where a judge sactioned an ex-con and supposed fraud investigator who was proven to be a lying short seller in Miami that we posted here yesterday.
Transition with talking about the background of many of the short sellers is actually in question. Reader due diligence should be always exercised in researching the author's integrity and reputation.
Cite the example of the felony convictions of Andrew Left with references.
Next address the topic of readers should pay particular attention to the sources of information with any fraud allegation.
Then discuss the Chimin article which contains evidence that tax filing statements were fabricated.
Then discuss the Muddy Waters article which contains evidence that the spreadsheet was fabricated.
*** I recommend someone with good CPA skills and detailed knowledge of SAIC/SAT filings write this article.
**** It should be submitted to a much higher level of visibility than merely SeekingAlpha. TheStreet.Com, MarketWatch, and Forbes should be our target publishers.
Does anyone on I-Hub know any of the contributing authors in either TheStreet, MarketWatch, or Forbes, and have the ability to collaberate with them?
If someone does, they should send them a straw man proposal with the above outline, followed by links to the best websites where specific items have been shown to be fraudulent, then closing with an offer to collaberate on the article.
Write all three publishers at once.
Done that, I cross-posted that exact headline on YMB a few minutes ago.
Court orders sanctions for Minkow after short attacks
Watch out Carson Block, Andrew Left, and Chimin Sang - A Miami judge has set a precedent regarding libel and slander against a similar fake fraud investigation outfit run by former con man Barry Minkow:
http://www.laweekly.com/2011-01-06/news/barry-minkow-s-new-scandal/#
LA Weekly, Jan. 6, 2011
"A Miami judge has ruled that former Los Angeles con man Barry Minkow lied, concealed material witnesses and destroyed or discarded key evidence in the libel and extortion lawsuit filed against him by home-building giant Lennar Corp."
"Florida State Court Judge Gill Freeman on Dec. 27 abruptly granted Lennar's request for sanctions against Minkow, who now must pay attorney and investigative fees estimated in the millions of dollars."
"...a judge will decide how much Minkow owes Lennar — a possibly ruinous price tag approaching hundreds of millions of dollars."
"Lennar saw its stock plummet more than 20 percent — nearly $500 million — in the two trading days following the January 2009 release by Minkow of his Fraud Discovery Institute's report critical of Lennar."
"Lennar general counsel Mark Sustana said this week, "We hope that the court's findings with regard to Mr. Minkow's dishonesty will protect other companies from having to expend substantial time, money and resources to fight Mr. Minkow's unfounded allegations."
"the repercussions are significant, Nockleby says — "especially for someone like Minkow, who is trying to rehabilitate himself and put himself out there as a fraud investigator, someone who is teaching the feds how to investigate frauds."
"But last summer, Judge Freeman declared that Minkow has no credibility and "will lie, plain and simple."
"In its Oct. 14 cover story, "Minkow 2.0," the Weekly described how Minkow shorted stocks in order to profit from companies that, soon after he invested in them, were the subject of critical reports issued by Minkow's fraud institute. Minkow shorted Lennar a month before his negative report on the company, then lied about it in an April 2009 deposition."
I guess that means no more visits from China back to the USA to visit family members during holidays, birthdays, weddings, or illness for Carson Block. Andrew, well, I guess he isn't going to be so lucky as he's already in the states.
Duplicate please delete
LPH 10Q 7 days, TTMGAAP EPS increasing 120%
LPH news release said it is on target for 500M revenue this year.
LPH quarterly income will not disappoint.
If quarterly income goes up only 10 percent, then TTM GAAP EPS will suddenly appear to be more than double the figure reported at this time (fully diluted accounting for warrants, currently TTM GAAP EPS = 0.24; will be AT LEAST 0.53 as of 2/15/2011).
As of 2/15/2011 LPH will have all the stock screener fundamental criteria in place:
P/E of 4.5 (based on current PPS of $2.39)
HUGE YoY PEG growth for FY 2011 which ends June 30th.
YoY demand for oil increasing exponentially for China.
Solid industrial customer base in Shanxi, coal/industrial province
Several CGS down exactly -37% for last 3 months:
These are exactly -37%:
CBEH -37%
CCME -38%
CHGY -37%
LPH -37%
NEP -35%
TSTC -36%
Others right around -25%:
AMCF -25%
LTUS -29%
RCON -23%
ZSTN -29%
And a few that don't fit the mold:
AERL -6%
CCCL -15%
LLEN -16%
PUDA +6%
SIHI +4%
UTA +8%
Every story is different, but I do consider probability of reversion to the mean based on 3-6 month history, and it's pretty much completed for the top group, all other things being equal.
Rato: You said, "I just cannot understand what they were thinking to sell this company at that valuation in a situation where they were well capitalized and had no need..."
Here's a pretty obvious answer from the I-Hub CCME board:
"Jacky explained that they did not anticipate the overall world markets would improve and thus they accepeted a lower valution. This was common during a tough economic period for any company, mining companies are a prime example given they are easier to value and takeovers are common. It may not be so easy to believe now because the macro conditions look better today; but at the time CCME wasn't the only company that was giving itself away for a song. His explanation is highly probable and highly believeable given the situation last year. Also, CCME was new to the business, and honest mistakes were made. The need for capital was over estimated in my opinion."