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AJ how about all of the above <g>
Here are a couple of candidates that have a big picture h/s look to them...banks and brokers.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=c,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][J49402610,Y]...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ben,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][J...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=wb,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][j4...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=gdw,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][j49127...
The main thing im watching here on the next push or two down are the 60 minute charts on the Dow/SP....if we get another push or two down with diverging MACD I'll be out of my shorts.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[h,a]ehcayiay[d20][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]ehcayiay[d20][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,2...
At some point we'll get compressed enough to get a nice snapback move.
AJ didn't have time to scan all the posts but did you catch the VIX classic channel breakout and spot on backtest this morning and subsequent reversal. Bearish for the markets imo.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$vix,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[de][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,26...
Bank stocks/financials look headed lower if this plays out...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$bkx,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][J4780...
Setups list updated for those interested. Retail stocks and selected financials look poised for further downside.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID897936&cmd=show[s48722860]&disp=...
Jim I joined you mid day. Looking for a move back up into 200 day/neckline area.
Here are the weekly charts on the major indices....major technical damage this week. I see that trendline you are referring to. Very possible we get a bounce off those levels to backtest the recent breaks through the 200 SMA/EMA areas or necklines on the daily charts.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[w,a]whcayiay[df][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9]....
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]whcayiay[df][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9....
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]whcayiay[df][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][....
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$tran,uu[w,a]whcayiay[df][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9]....
Zeev this site has been pretty reliable and they have the current P/E on the SP 500 at 19.50. Factor in the expensing of stock options in the second half of the year and you'll have a further contraction of earnings thus making the 19.50 current P/E look rather favorable/conservative/low.
http://www.vtoreport.com/
(Scroll down mid day to the right of the SP 500 chart)
AJ sounds reasonable....perhaps a backtest of our neckline around 1163 or maybe only a backtest of our 200 SMA/EMA area just below. Exited the majority of my short positions into the close. Nice trend day down thanks to good old IBM.
Hey AJ....yes looks like we broke through necklines on the indices today on the Dow/WLSH/SP etc. Here are some updates....very common for backtest or breach of these necklines to shakeout shorts before the next leg down....if that is to occur my guess would be next week sometime. Tomorrow could be a nice trend day down...fairly rare to get a bottom on a Friday after a decent down swing.
OSG broke badly today as did some other oils. The breakdown in the Golds today makes me think the US Dollar is on the cusp of a double bottom breakout that projects to 89-90ish.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!l...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,26...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$wlsh,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,...
EK QCOM looks to have done nothing more than to backtest its broken neckline today and failed right at that level. Shorted the issue today on that move. Expect lower levels in the issue in the days ahead net/net.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=qcom,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][J4887...
Big breakdown in NEM today out of a 2 year symmetrical triangle....mirroring the XAU...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=nem,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[d20030207,20051207][pb50!b200!f][vc6...
Nice call yesterday to stick with your shorts.
>>>I've been following your stockcharts.com page and those 3 year trendlines on the indexes. Could you explain the preference for linear charts. An alternate explanation for support here is the 200-day SMAs accross many stocks and indexes.
If we were using log charts wouldn't we expect resistence when we reach back to those same trendlines that were broken on the log charts a while back?>>>
I've always used linear just my preference. Have seen arguements both ways on the issue. If those uptrendlines end up breaking convincingly trust me you'll see some institutional sell programs kick in. I expect them to hold for the short term.
Robb
Gizmo agree...after 1.4 and 1.3 billion shares last Friday and Monday you could feel the potential for a sea change. Today was the first day this year I've seen fear on the shorts behalf my guess from the washout volume the prior couple of days. Need to get past the 50 SMA's to push out some of the record short side interest.
Zeev would keep close watch on our recent resistance levels of 10,550 Dow...2020ish Naz...and 1192 on the SP where the 50 SMA comes into play...if those levels clear we should run some.
Thanks....I actually shorted SPY on the open in hopes that would play itself out down to our 3 year uptrend supports....covered once we started to reverse. Today sure beats the recent 5 point range bound days we've been seeing as of late! Some very nice hammers off our uptrend supports today so I expect this bounce to continue for a few days. Volume which dried to a crawl the past 2 down days came in on today's reversal. As always we'll see how it plays out.
P/C 1.40....nice Rx for a short ramp...
You bet...thats what 3 year uptrend supports will do and a P/C thats 1.40.
Burk that pattern looks pretty well set. Similar pattern on most other indices as well. If we break 1179ish not much support until the 1172 level. If we do bounce as you suggest these patterns could get negated. As always we'll see how it plays out.
Nice looking H/S taking shape on the SP 30 minute chart....the day was spent spinning up the right side shoulder/bear flag.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]fecayiay[d10][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9]...
Volume is drying up at support...COT shows the commercials have covered their shorts the past 2 weeks especially on the NDX...P/C is getting up there...we remain oversold on the weekly charts. Never like being short when the Naz puts in this type of low volume on down days. As always we'll know in time.
Volume drying up rapidly in the markets as we approach our 3 year uptrendlines.
The reality is we're just pinballing between the 50/200 day moving averages....neither bulls nor bears have control. Once this range breaks should get a decent directional move.
AD shorting the morning bounces has worked well....and going long the strong trend day down days at the very end of the day has worked on the other side.
Volatility has dried up to a virtual standstill...
Welles...sorry about the delay in getting back to you. I agree with all you wrote about Blaine. It was well worth the investment to learn from him as he was one of the best regarding TA in his day. Back about 2 years ago something happened with the site. We all thought Blaine fell ill or something and that someone else was running the site. For whatever reason things did go downhill in a hurry. I was a member back in the old SecurityTrader days....that was a great site!
OGM thanks for that update...that explains the big volume in MRVL on Friday. As always the smart money knows well in advance.
Not sure why those first two charts didnt load....here goes a second look at the H/S potential setup on the Dow/SP...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!l...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,26...
If these don't take im sure you get the basic idea intended...
AJ you make excellent points with all of your charts. There are many crosscurrents here no question. The Dow/SP both have potential for H/S topping patterns on the daily with significant downside projected targets should they take out their necklines which would break our uptrendlines on the 3 year weekly linear charts.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!l....
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,26....
All the major indices are battling it out with the Dow/SP/Naz trading between their 50 and 200 SMA's. Normally when this is the case conditions are short term whipsawed as neither side has complete control. Also lends itself to a headfake environment in both directions and makes for difficult to trade conditions.
Current EW count projects to 1250-75 on the SP and 11,500 on the Dow....Comp looks to have fulfilled its 5th wave move.
Negative divergence is in place on many of the Weekly charts with bullish divergence on the daily Comp and NDX charts.
Here's another look at the Comp chart sent along by a pretty good chartist over at Clearstation.
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=6450229&usernm=denmo83
I'm personally mostly cash here other than long AAPL and a couple of drug stocks as long term holds which are in an IRA. I maintain contact with a large group of traders some playing the long side others the short side. The common theme is one of frustration the past few weeks...although no doubt the bears have been on the right side since January. The question I have here is will our 3 year uptrend supports hold for a turn back up? After Fridays action we may need a flushout just below key supports in order to see a sustainable move higher.
Personally watching for some further confirmation before placing too much capital at risk.
Hey AJ
You may be right. All the charts lineup and are holding their trendlines off the March 2003 lows so if that starts to breakdown I think we'll have trouble. So far the indices seem to continue to find support off that trendline. I still favor a move to about 1250-75 in time based on my wave count. However, if our key supports break will adjust as needed.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]whcayiay[df][pb50!b200!f][vc60][J48721645...
Our technical negative divergence off the 5/15/30 minute charts played out well today to the downside.
Enjoy your intraday updates...nice work!
Positiontrader the weeklies look bullish imo. Not saying we dont chop around the uptrendline for a while longer. But in general as long as it holds my bias is on the long side.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]whcayiay[df][pb50!b200!f][vc60][J48721645...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]whcayiay[df][pb50!b200!f][vc60][J487223...
The Dow/SP/Naz all remain in bulllish uptrends until they break...take a look at these three charts. Bullish above....bearish below imo. Helps to scale back sometimes to fade out all the noise due to the choppy conditions.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]whcayiay[df][pb50!b200!f][vc60][j487223...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[w,a]whcayiay[df][pb50!b200!f][vc60][J4872286...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]whcayiay[df][pb50!b200!f][vc60][J48721645...
I like some of the tanker group if we do get that push lower in oil near term. Check out OSG and VLCCF for starters...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=osg,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][j48292328,...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=vlccf,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][J4871964...
Looking to position long if we dip in the oil group.
AJ nice job. I've found the semi's in particular to trade inverse to oil. You could see that nicely today. I agree with your take that we bounce for a few days while oil potentially corrects...then a reversal of that move. If the SOX clears the 420-422 area they should run a bit in the short term. Many of the oil stocks look like they are finishing off some nice A-B-C corrective moves.
By the way AD keep watch on the semi's here....could see some rotation out of oil and into the semis. SOX 422 is a major pivot point.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/post_reply.asp?message_id=5984561
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$sox,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,2....
Setups List updated for those interested...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID897936
AD expect some continued upside into the AAPL report. Based on the high short interest in the float....momentum, technical picture in both the stock and market itself. As always time will tell the tale. I'll be out just before the report.
Good Trading to you!
Nice looking ascending triangle breakout in AAPL today...expect it to run into earnings.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=aapl,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,2...
Hi TC...
Normally those type of bullish falling wedges turn into inverse h/s patterns....odds are a neckline will emerge around the 44ish level. Went long the play today. Good catch on the OBV...!
Nice looking long side setup....went long the issue today.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ebay,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][...
Hey Welles...
I'm quite familiar with Blaine. Was a member there for about 5 years myself. Many of us left the site a couple of years back and now post on the link below. Anyway I agree that he's a very good technician but I found that the site had gone downhill somewhat in the recent past versus what it used to be. I agree 100% about the 1160 level. I'd like to see a break of that level to shake out the weak longs and draw in some more shorts which would provide a nice Rx for a reversal.
We will see in time.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=54536
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]whcayiay[d20001211,20051211][pf][vc60][ila12...