Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I wish but, if I had to take a poke at it, I'm rather sure they covered yesterday and this am. After all, they had two free days at disneyland ahead of everyone else.
-Dave-
You're probably right on the twist...and also the data will not include storm data. But, if there is any drawdown without the storm being included we're off to the races...also check out that link I sent you..the buyers are starting to step in.
-Dave-
LOL!
-Dave-
I'm thinking we're just gonna kind of flutter around here but, at least it gets us a little further out of the 'danger zone' This afternoon and tomorrow will be key.
-Dave-
How true....like you said..this ain't over. IMO that's just the first of the oil/gas company 'damage parade'..there will be more. I kind of figured it would happen yesterday when I heard CEO's saying 'cautiously optimistic' over and over again...translation== "I think we're screwed but, I'm not gonna just come out and say it" hahaha!!I've always loved that phrase!
-Dave-
And..heeeeeeere we go. Upticking. Will it hold? IMO this will be an unfolding story that will develop throughout the day and will lead into tomorrows EIA numbers. I still think the big boys are going to make money on this coming and going. JMO
-Dave-
CNBC BREAKING NEWS--------""Baker Hughes CEO says disruptions are just as severe as Katrina....and is very concerned."" Interesting.
-Dave-
Finally starting to see a stoch crossover on the 15m chart...if we can see it on the daily and/or weekly we'll be in trend reversal...is that correct?
-Dave-
Just change the ticker symbol.
-Dave-
Good tool for keeping track of buyers vs. sellers in the market.
-Dave-
https://wwws.ameritrade.com/cgi-bin/apps/u/PLoad?pagename=streamer/nasdaq_bookviewer.html&stock=TSO
Are the petroleum inventory numbers coming out today? CNBC's economic calender said they were when I checked this morning..maybe they're running a day behind because of the market being closed monday...wow! That means that we could get a double whammy tomorrow.
-Dave-
6.95 is our next level of support...if it breaks that it could get really ugly. Then again, it could turn around in a heartbeat on the right news/information. Oil seems to be holding between 105-110...NATGAS should settle here soon if it continues to trade in sympathy. Watch the EIA numbers closely at 10:30..
-Dave-
Well, that's somewhat of an improvement..NATGAS inventory numbers come out tomorrow. Petroleum inventory numbers out today...If there's any significant drawdown in petro,and it rebounds NATGAS could have some sympathy reaction to oil. Looks like Hanna is gonna shred where I live. Taking the same track as Hugo and Fran...both of them thumped us up here when they came through. You need to watch Ike..like I said I think he's gonna end up being your new buddy.LOL
-Dave-
Thanks D&D..I saw the same but, my chart reading skills stll leave alot to be desired. Therefore, I have a question...can gaps fill to the upside as well? TIA.
-Dave-
Yup..I was kicking myself in the a#% for taking profits on LEH on Friday when I saw it up to over 17 today and almost jumped back in....now I don't feel so bad that I didn't. Do you really think that fund had that much to do with NATGAS selling this afternoon?? If so, that was a big friggin fund. Also FWIW I'm showing a close at 20:04 for 33.45. I think your right though, we'll rebound after this week's or next week's inventory numbers. IMO there will be quite the drawdown.
-Dave-
OMG!! This aftermarket session is getting ugly.
-Dave-
CITGO wanting SPR released to them..hmmmmmm I wonder why?? Damage maybe?
-Dave-
Overall market still tanking...at least I don't have to worry about feeling bad for being on the wrong side of it..I was pretty pissed when I saw that I didn't have much cash left to throw into a 300 point day because it was almost all in TSO, UNG, RDC, and HAL...oh well, they'll pay me before too much longer.
-Dave-
CNBC news alert---------"oil production 'could' return to normal in two weeks"..didn't catch what they said about NATGAS.
-Dave-
I need to find something to short...there's always a good dog needin' to be kicked! Any suggestions?
-Dave-
Nope..not for a minute too many variables, known and unknown, in play. Just hard to watch right now...also it's pretty interesting that the overall market is selling off. This morning they were talking about this being a turning point due to oil being so low. Honestly, I don't think anyone knows anything right now! LOL
-Dave-
After absorbing what Boone said..I believe he was speaking mainly about there is plenty of supply if that supply is tapped into at a higher level than it is now..bottom line is we're dealing with the here and now, and the here and now says there isn't enough of any of the energy commodities...in any case, I am now sitting right at my stop and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't starting to pucker. 33.23 is the 52wk low and we're getting close..if it makes a strong high volume break below that we're going much lower IMO..at that point I'd probably sell at least half of my position and get back in when it finds support.
-Dave-
I know...I just watched it..ugggggggghhh!!! But then again like Dennis Neal said..he shorted oil at 100 too!
-Dave-
I did to but give it a few days...if there is any drawdown in the weekly inventory numbers tomorrow morning this could turn on a dime.... Personally, I think next week's numbers will be the tell-all and the deciding factor on this trade.
-Dave-
I feel your pain...I'm in coastal NC. I think Hanna is gonna get me and Ike will end up being your buddy.:))...anyway, not looking too bad so far in the pre-market. OBV is trending up so, somebody is picking some shares up. I think oil is the commodity taking the a#$ kicking today. NATGAS seems to be holding it's own.
-Dave-
Wow! Gonna be an ugly open. Of course it all depends on if the opinion of the market views this as a buying opportunity...I think the camp on lower/higher oil and natgas is about 50/50 right now. It could go either way. I'm still just above my stop (barely) so I'm ok for now. If it breaks I'm probably selling half and scaling back in throughout the week. Ike looks like he's gonna be a mf'r!
-Dave-
Hmmm...natgas and oil starting to uptick, first green arrows I've seen all day..go figure!!!!
-Dave-
An intermediate high yes...and short is definitely the way to go right now as it is currently the path of least resistance so, kudos on that trade. However, oil is like dirt...they're not making any more of it and there are currently no other viable alternatives available in the near future. I also wouldn't write off not ever seeing $7 dollar gas. This year or next probably not. But, in our lifetime you can bet on it. I could explain why but that would take too many words.
-Dave-
IMO Oil will go up in a few days. Is that better???
-Dave-
Hahaha..yeah..I can get a little long winded sometimes :)
-Dave-
I'm not arguing that oil has been in a downtrend over the last month or so...it's exhausted after the hard early summer runs. However, I think that the big speculators/traders started shorting/selling it Friday afternoon knowing full well before others that NYMEX would be open for e-trading on Sunday and Monday. That announcement to the public didn't come until well after Friday's session ended. IMO, like I posted on another board, that's the same as having disneyworld all to yourself for a day and on Friday they knew they would have disneyworld all to themselves. And Friday it was still believed that Gustav would be a Cat 4-5 on landfall..I find it hard to believe that energy markets would selloff on news like that 3 days before the event and not knowing what the possible/potential damage might be. Demand destruction and oversupply are irrelevant if the majority of the gulf's oil/gas production is shut down for months...which would have been the case had Gustav been as strong as everyone thought on Friday afternoon...(when the selling started btw). There is no way, IMO, that anybody in their right mind would have gone short in the face of that kind of potential damage....UNLESS they knew they could cover and buy back in on the long side this afternoon or tomorrow morning before all the institutions and other traders were back at work on Tuesday. I don't think for a minute these large speculators would give up the opportunity to make alot of money coming and going both ways..watch the sentiment and energy prices turn over the coming days. Watch how the new catchprase will become 'Damage to the energy infrastructure worse than previously believed.' IMO, the next couple of weeks will tell the tale. However, with all that being said, I've been wrong before. I'm long UNG, TSO, RDC, and HAL. I bought UNG and TSO on Friday and have been holding RDC and HAL for a couple of months...those are my 'cane' stocks. GLTA and keep the gulf coast folks in your thoughts and prayers.
-Dave-
Yup...I think the media is confusing the 'smooth evacutation' which was outstanding IMO, for 'no damage'. I think there is alot of missing the forest for the trees going on IMO. Now, 'spotter planes' have determined that the oil platforms seem ok. Pffffft!!! And, the storm hasn't even reached 'refinery row' yet. As you said, nobody knows ANYTHING right now. Thursday or Friday will tell us more. I'm just glad that as of yet nobody has been hurt or killed.
-Dave-
Hahaha..I'm not writing it off just yet. Wednesday or Thursday will tell us more. However, I think I may have underestimated the demand destruction/economic factor. But, I'm at a loss as to understand how the networks are writing this off as nothing before it even makes it ashore. I'm also taking the current NYMEX trading session with a grain of salt. IMO it's akin to having Disneyworld all to yourself for a day. I have a suspicion that the energy commodities are being shorted into oblivion with no competition on the other side right now. How can a fair value or true consensus of price be established when you're just playing amongst your high rolling commodity trading friends? I have all ideas that when the institutional and hedge traders get to work in the morning the playing field may very well change. I may be wrong but, in any case it is way to early to make a call on this one just yet. There is still alot of information to be assessed and absorbed. JMO.
-Dave-
Glad to hear you're doing well Sherri..and I agree with you. A Cat 3 is a Cat 3..there's also not much difference between a Cat 3 and a strong Cat 2.
-Dave-
Welcome...UNG really hasn't had an opportunity to work/act in a seasonal way. It's a relatively new fund and really has no history in regard to hurricanes. You should probably look at the chart for Natgas..$NATGAS on stockcharts.com. After Katrina NATGAS made over a 50% move to the upside. This fund mirrors the performance of $NATGAS so, I think this will be a learning experience for all of us. GLTY.
-Dave-
Thanks again...NATGAS down -.15...interesting. Any thoughts on this?? My thoughts are that it's being gamed..selling it short today and buying it back just before yelling the sky is falling sometime next week?
-Dave-
Thanks...I finally figured out that it would be on their site. Geez I'm such a DUMB#$@!! Hahahaha!!! Anyway, this is a pretty cool map and a good website. Take care and be safe.
-Dave-
http://rigzone.com/news/hurricanes/gustav_map.asp
I agree Kev...What alot of folks are forgetting is that the 'excess supply' in $NATGAS that has been thrown around since last month is ALREADY PRICED IN. Regardless of what the consensus is saying about how bad the damage to the platforms will be, NATGAS is going higher and soon. All you have to do is look at the historical chart data going back years and years. NATGAS always spikes in late Sept./early Oct. with or without Hurricanes. I wouldn't suggest it now but, based on the above, buying into UNG (natgas etf) over the preceding weeks makes it a no-brainer hurricane play. IMO The downside is limited and the upside is blue sky. Another way I'm playing Gustav is I'm currently holding about 500 shares of TSO. They are the only one out of the large refiners that have no Gulf Coast exposure..if Valero, Shell, Exxon, etc. refineries in La. and Miss. get shredded whatever oil we bring in through other ports will have to be refined somewhere. I believe that TSO will pick up some of those extra refining contracts by default and the stock price should reflect it by December. Anyway, great board guys/gals. I'll be back. Everyone take care and be safe.
-Dave-
CNBC is updating now on their website under futures and pre-market data. I know it's delayed but it will do.
-Dave-
Thanks Fly...where did you find that? I've been checking CNBC and bloomberg. Anyway, to all, I know we're all here trying to make some money but, it's also important to keep residents of the gulf coast in our thoughts and prayers. Take care and be safe.
-Dave-