Empire Building 101
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throwerw of all people you should be in s position to give an honest opinion as you live in China correct?
What is your opinion of the cig manufacturing purchase in particular? Apparently you like them enough to have picked them in the pic 16. Obviously you have done a little tire kicking in the last 12 months. Remember you made allegations I don't remember what they were but later recanted. Where so you see this company in a year based on your DD. What are your estimates for 2011?
I agree with the .01 divi statement but doubt management would do that.
Do you own any stock in ckgt?
No I did not. My biggest concern is getting the word out and what they are going to do different. They are going to get a shareholder list from the company and do a mailing to all current shareholders. SRRY.OB did this last year and I thought it was an effective way of getting the word out to current shareholders but feel they did nothing to get the story out to new eyes. If Equitrend does an e-mailing as they are notorious for(P&D) this could be an effective way verses doing not at all. Who knows this could give them a little credibility which they sorely lack.
I do not believe this company has no intention of doig a put notice without a much improved stock price.
Brian shortened the phone call saying that he had another phone call he had to take. Maybe we hear something Monday??????
Opps I forgot about the time zone. Figured the market was open....Anyhow I did talk to somebody by the name of Brian. They are very excited about ckgt.ob because it is the only stock they cover that is over a buck(LOL)! IMO, they are going to do the same as Hawk did which basically transferred any questions to management.
Brian did say that he was going to China the end of this month for 10 days to view their operations. At that point I would think they will do something similar to what Chad has done with SIAF.PK to get the story out. Apparently Brian has had many calls today related to ckgt.ob
I feel that ckgt.ob is worth no less than $3-5 per share.
Let's see what comes out prior to earnings. They are to have direct contact with these guys atleast twice a week which started this past Monday.
Just called and again nobody answered. I made it a point to let them know this was the 3rd time and nobody answered or called back. They ask for your name, the stock, and a number to call you back. Here is the number (800)953-3350
My concern is they don't just do a fancy report on earnings but actually do something to get investor awareness out to the public. It makes no sense to give someone 5k a month for something that is clearly spelled out in 10q's and any other SEC document. They might as well hire a fluent speaking person and do their own IR for about 1/10 the cost.
Lots of people were complaining about Hawk, well atleast they naswered the phone and did answer e-mail.
Guess it goes with the old saying "Be careful what you ask for, for you might just get it."
Left a message both times. Will call tommorrow. Been very busy.
I'm goin be the first here on a revenue estimate for Q3 which is going to be huge. With the 3,000 stores for distribution added in Q3 should help sales soar. This news was announced in April so my assumption they had no impact in Q2. With sales up 34% in Q2 we should see a mimimum of 50% which would put sales over $12Mil.
My actual estimate is north of $12.5Mil and would be totally disappointed with anything less. Margins will be probably flat to slightly up from Q2.
Let's see how well the advertising expense helps the top line. Cashflow should be great. Still expect to hear something from the new IR firm very soon. I believe they still have a plan to excersiae the put but they need to get the price much higher otherwise plan b.
I do not think earnings per share will grow much as we have 15% more shares vrs 09. However, they should be up 20% in aggregate vrs last year vrs only 10% in q2
Not from me. AS a matter of fact I'm getting ready to pull the trigger very soon and buy more.
Why my estimates were to high last Q
1)Advertising costs are expensed as incurred. Advertising expenses totaled $139,175 and $0 for the six months ended June 30, 2010 and 2009.
2)Research and development costs related to both present and future products are expensed as incurred. Research and development costs totaled $104,015 and $0 for the six months ended June 30, 2010 and 2009, respectively.
3) increased amortization from patents-Patents and licenses amortization expense was $134,634 and $68,595 for the six months ended June 30, 2010 and 2009, respectively.
Operating expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2010 totaled $1,310,483, an increase of $52,672, or 4%, compared to $1,257,811 for the six months ended June 30, 2009. The increase in operating expenses was mainly attributable to our new research and development expense of $104,015 for the six months ended June 30, 2010 and increased amortization expense due to newly acquired patent.
Adding in an additional $400K last Q definately would have put earnings at around .09 with the increased shares and the higher tax rate.
Guess it is time to focus on Q3 results.
IMO we have went to great lengths to find negatives with the new IR. However, we have focused so much on the negatives we totally missed the positive. Whether it be a mass mailing or direct contact with institutions they will put more eyeballs on this little gem. That will be good as that alone has been the problem. Nobody knows nothing about this little gem except our friends and family. Our time is very near and with a clear turnaround in microcaps and a little PR we will double very quickly.
My guess is we see $1.50 this week and possibly more.
Sure would be nice to see some follow-up on a few things I was told such as an update on dog and pony shows as promised along with an update on cigs. Common management let's start PRing pertinent info not a PR firm that appears to be more of P&D rather than looking for l-term investors.
We are bouncing off the yearend bottom while siaf.pk will be making new highs in short order. Even csgh.ob has moved up considerable from its lows. Atleast I have a few printing green.
What really sucks is they really have a nice story yet nobody within management understands this function as a necessity but merely pacification at the lowest level. This is so disturbing in leiu of them trying to drum up funds for the ramp up in the new cig manufacturer they recently purchased...so pathetic.
Get the price up and stop wasting precious time on the expansion. Doing it right is essential but you also have to strike when the irons are hot.
Now we have a PR company that doesn't have e-mail. I've called twice....
My thoughts to the Kodiak deal and more news may be flawed as they have until 11/27/10 to deliver the put notice. They report q3 results by Nov. 15 and the results are good, the stock rallies, and at that point do the put notice. It had been posted that they had until the middle of Oct. which was untrue. Always substantiate anything you hear or read on a m.b.
The fact remains they have a "right to walk away" if the stock price isn't what they believe it is worth(I agree). Remember they walked from the Seaside deal.
Item 1.02 Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement.
On April 30, 2010, China Kangtai Cactus bio-Tech, Inc. (the "Company") entered into a termination agreement (the "Termination Agreement") with Seaside 88, LP ("Seaside") pursuant to which the parties agreed to mutually terminate the Common Stock Purchase Agreement, dated November 5, 2009, between the Company and Seaside 88, LP (the "Purchase Agreement") with no further obligations. The parties agreed to enter into the Termination Agreement because the Company believes the financing terms as contemplated by the Purchase Agreement is not in the best interest of the Company at the current time.
Apr 30, 2010 2.30 2.35 2.30 2.35 21,900 2.35
They certainly will walk here also. They walked at $2.35 they sure as heck arn't going to let this put option go at $1.0
The following is directly from 8K.
"Pursuant to the Investment Agreement, the price per share will be determined once the Company submits a written notice (the “Put Notice”) to the Investor stating the dollar amount in U.S. dollars the Company intends to sell to the Investor and will be based on the following formula: eighty three percent (83%) of the volume-weighted average price of the Company’s common stock five (5) days immediately preceding the date of the Put Notice and five (5) days immediately following the date of the Put Notice. Under the Investment Agreement, the Company may not deliver the Put Notice until after the resale of the Shares has been registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Additionally, provided that the Investment Agreement does not terminate earlier, the Company has a three (3) month period, beginning on the trading day immediately following the effectiveness of the registration statement, during which it may deliver the Put Notice to the Investor (the “Open Period”)."
Now look at the new firm. Right off the web-site.
Let Equititrend initiate, structure and execute your next fundraising transaction. Equititrend specializes in:.
PIPE Financing
Distressed Company Financing
Convertible Debt Financing
Merger and Acquisition Financing
Mezzanine and short-term Bridge Financing
Early Stage Venture Capital
Asset-based Debt and Credit Instruments
Regulation D, Rule 504 and Rule 506 Private Placements
Reg. D, 144 Capital
IMO, if they don't get their price this Kodiak deal is dead. These guys want top dollar for any dilution and are unwilling to take any less. They will probably do $10 Mil cash flow for the year. Obviously, this management is a lot smarter than many give credit.
I haven't contacted the new IR firm. However I did contact hawk and they are done as of the 30th which is this Wednesday.
The new firm has no e-mail imagine that! My guess is they are going to write-up a P&D article very soon and in all reality this week. Not at all a step up in IR IMO. Proabably buying shares before the mailing or mass e-mailing. This is IMO only.
They list no clients on web-site. How did management ever get involved in this is beyond me.
Anybody selling here? I find it absurd to sell at these levels yet their seems to be an endless amount available. Maybe mm's trading amongst themselves trying to get shares. Anybody have any clue as to who is selling?
I blieve we see product updated news very soon. Otherwise with the price being so low the put option expires. Management is very well aware of this and it only makes sence that they release this before the 90 days. The clock started to tick in july and they only have until mid-October to excersize the option.
Is it possible I'm misinterpreting the put option? Any comments?
I expect an updated product release as early as next week. I;ve been saying new product vur no longer feel that will happen. Then again maybe a double dose of real news will set the stock in motion.
AS far as the new IR there certainly is enough bashing going on which is not doing anything. To begin with the only client they ever had to anyones knowledge was a non growing entity which was virtually a scam.
Here they have a company that is growing at 35-40% clip for the forseeable future. Hopefully they will give this firm the info needed to get the price up and the awareness out. The oompany needs to get the story out to the public and institutions. Most people are griping about a lack of PR when the real problem is not attending dog and pony shows and get the story out where it would be beneficial. Doing one show a year isn't going to cut it and neither is pR after PR. If you don't know about ckgt what good is a PR.
We have several people within the CGS that have ties or better yet their own websites which do have good traffic yet they continue to make it a point to ignore ckgt.ob and continue with the same old same old stocks such as UTA, CCME, LPH to name a few. What a shame to bash csgh.ob for the only dilution in 2 years with a solid plan yet nada for others that have diluted including their "favorites" they continue lavish the boards with posts about my stock is so "undrvalued" and a host of conspiracy theories.
CKGT.OB will do fine as long as they continue growing the business and improving the bottomline. In order to win the race you need a good horse and a jockey. Lacking either will surely not give the l.t. results many we all want.
CKGT.OB has an excellent jockey(management) who is showing the direction they are going without numerous PR's(cigs & feed) and the horse being their prodecuts (cigs, feed, and beverages) with excellent growth and acceptance. I'm very happy about my investment and realize china small caps are out of favor and until that changes nothing chnages!
In stead of bashing sell your stock and buy yoir favorites and contnue with your conspiracy theories galore. Sheech enough is enough. Yes i would like to see a 5 year plan but annualize at 30% will probably give you a very good idea and that may be very low-balled.
Is the big seller gone? Lots of selling in the last 2 hours yesterday. We should go straight up to a buck today (LOL)!
Patiently waiting for the news...anybody know or hear anything Zack or throwerw??????
Good luck on the .75 shares. Kind of hard to disagree with ya traderfan. I'm fully loaded and believe the q will be much better than most expect.
Never thought I'd say it but certainly glad I hold a few shares of siaf.pk
Allegations of fraud are now rampant. In most cases nothing more than accusations. The best way to counter these attacks especially for the companies that are extremely cash flow positive is quite simple.
1) start paying a dividend to show some legitimacy like SIAF did
2) annouce a stock buyback
3) insider buying
AFter reading CGS daily I find it disturbing that each and every day they talk about CCME paying a dividend and annoucing a buyback which I think is essential.
However, nothing speaks volumes louder than when management buys on the open market. This is the key to instill investor confidence. Why should anyone buy if management isn't willing.
Paying dividends shows legitimacy but the divi can always be suspended. Annoucing a stock buyback may or may not happen and costs management zilch. Buying stock on the open market with your own money will effect management in the event the company fails and has a direct impact on managements own financial well being.(Opposed to cheap options etc. which management usually passes out with very little consideration for who they work for although their is a time when this does play a vital part.
Really find it hard to believe with all the educaetd people on these boards they have not exploited this option more. Hopefully, management understands this. To many special perks(take a look at congress, IMO same as many managements) and people are just getting sick of it.
Remember the quote "All people are created equal..." It is no wonder the world is in the mess it is!
I thought we were going to get news nada a 2 minute video from Zack. Heck we will be lucky to hold a buck. Come on management I thought we had some PR's coming our way.
Maybe the smokes are really a fraud and the ones I received were only a figment of my imagination.
Where is the updates????????
Timing is probably wrong as usual...however the expectation is not. We should see news very soon. The smokes alone will take us to the next level.
This week should see a drastic improvement in stock price. here is a WAG for this Friday $1.50 and $2.00 end of Oct. Things are much better and the price will soon reflect that with the PR we have all been waiting for. It won't be long!
I really don't know but it certainly would make sense. Especially since they trashed the Seaside deal with a much higher price. This is looking more and more like manipulation and unfortunately their isn't a whole lot we can do about. Hopefully we get some news very quick. I expected news last month.
WE could see $1.5 Mil in Cig Sales this Q. as the expansion is underway. I like this quote" will significantly increase shareholder value" I know our space here has been dead for awhile but sheesh this is a mouthful here. We are at some point going to see these results and IMO they already started in Q2 and the growth over the next year will be mind-boggling. Pappy probably underestimated(LOL)!! We could see Q4 cig sales of $3.0 Mil
China Kangtai CEO Jinjiang Wang said, “This acquisition enables us to produce cactus-based cigarettes in our own facilities, which will provide us with stronger cost control and production flexibility. By leveraging Dadi’s brand name and sale channels in The Philippines, Taiwan and Myanmar, we can expand our cactus-based cigarette market sales to Southeast Asia, which we expect to help us significantly broaden future sales. We also expect this acquisition to be accretive to earnings and to significantly increase shareholder value in the long run.”
We have done $2.0 in feed sales in the slow 1st half and the total forecast is $4.4 MIl. The launch of poultry feed is supposed to happen this year. This was the news I 've been expecting. Who knows maybe a cacti shortage? Afterall it is Sept.
China Kangtai CEO Jinjiang Wang said, "We are excited to see the strong initial acceptance of both our cactus hog feed and cactus cigarette products. Both market segments show huge potential for growth for our company. China has about 390 million smokers and is the world's largest consumer of pork. Following the successful launch of our cactus cattle, fish and hog feed, we plan to launch a poultry feed product in 2010. The estimated sales for all four of these animal feed products are $4.4 million in 2010."
Many people believe ckgt.ob will be the sole supplier once the factory comes online. This is simply not true as they have a 5 year commitment. How big is the cig business going to be?
China Kangtai Cactus Agrees 5 Year Deal to Produce its Patented Cactus Cigarettes
China Kangtai Cactus Biotech Inc. (OTC: CKGT) announced that they have signed a five year co-operative production agreement with Jiangsu Nanhuanghai Industry & Commerce Ltd to produce cactus-based cigarettes.
Kangtai is a Chinese based agricultural and processing company, Kantai grows and manufactures of a variety of cactus-based products in China. Their cactus-derived products include nutritious food, a wide variety of beverages, extracts and powders and animal feed.
The newly patented cactus cigarettes are expected to increase sales by approximately $220,000 in the fourth quarter. Under the agreement, China Kangtai will provide its patented technology, raw materials, quality control guidelines and technical support. In return Jiangsu Nanhuanghai will provide processing facilities and production labor. The deal will operate on a fee based system whereby Kantai will pay production fees to Nanhaunghai.
The deal encompasses two varieties of Kantai’s patented cactus cigarettes the low nicotine cactus cigarette contains a small amount of tobacco among its blend of cactus, honeysuckle and ginkgo biloba leaves. This cactus-derived cigarette lowers tar and nicotine content by 70%. Whereas the zero nicotine cigarette is made without any tobacco, according to Kangtai Biotech It offers ‘taste and enjoyment’ that is equivalent to regular cigarettes.
China Kangtai CEO Jinjiang Wang commented on the potential market for the cactus cigarette market, while emphasising the deals ability to ‘fast track’ their products development;
"China has about 390 million smokers, accounting for 30% of global smokers. Our cactus health-preserving cigarette market represents a huge growth opportunity in China. Our strategic alliance with a cooperative cigarette manufacturer enables us to fill orders quickly with short production runs”
China Kangtai Biotech controls over 387 acres of plants and maintains an active R&D group that holds 18 product patents and is seeking another 12. China Kangtai's high-quality "green" products are sold throughout China via a distribution network that covers 12 of China's 23 provinces and two of China's four municipalities.
Register here to be notified of future China Kangtai Cactus Bio-Tech articles. Other China Kangtai Cactus Bio-Tech news
02/09/09
China Kangtai to launch patented cactus-based cigarettes in 2009
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Here are some key matrix comparing ckgt vs industry. They are very undervalued at a minimum factor of 2 in all categories. I realize that most microcaps are down. However, most are not growing in excess of 30+% with a history going back further than the most recent Q.
China Kangtai Cactus Bio-Tech Inc: Key Ratios Growth Rates
Price Ratios
Profit Margins
Financial Condition
Investment Returns
Management Efficiency
Ten Year Summary
Growth Rates % Company Industry S&P 500
Sales (Qtr vs year ago qtr) 65.70 15.40 15.00
Net Income (YTD vs YTD) 145.90 82.90 70.50
Net Income (Qtr vs year ago qtr) 145.80 19.80 85.30
Sales (5-Year Annual Avg.) 32.70 6.03 8.77
Net Income (5-Year Annual Avg.) -18.40 9.37 8.44
Dividends (5-Year Annual Avg.) NA 6.35 5.03
Financial data in U.S. dollars
Probably goin tread water here without news. After all we have more shares available with the recent filing. Sheech will this ever end?
Just got back in today at .42 It certainly is worth that IMO and should be at the bottom or very close! Any opinions welcome
Thanks Pappy for saying what I was trying to say!
Yes we have a great future.
JoeNatural you played the religion card with rat on the other board. Now I suggest that you read 1st Corinthians Chapter 6:1-11.
What do you expect to gain here? Extortion
Cigs and feed are going to be blockbuster IMO. Cigs should have margins in the mid to high 30's with feed approximately high teens to the low 20's.
IMO, these volumes will more than offset the increase in taxes and the increased share count.
With increased governance and smoking bans I look for our safer cig to take off to the tune of $15 Mil in sales next year. Gross margins would give us $5 Mil. IMO, we will instantly become a buyout candidate to a much large company.
Feed will grow at the same rate and possibly much more.
Beverages has been called a mature industry by 1 poster. Sales don't grow 50% in mature market. In 2011 we could see $15-18 Mil.
Management has been critisized for a lack of transparency. I disagree wholeheartedly as they are selling products that may catch on and may not. This with contraints on the amount of cactus available has a lot to do with the direction they take. In todays world you have to be very careful wha you say as people look for reasons to sue.
I am very upbeat about company prospects as they have many new products coming online as cactus becomes available not to mention newe patents. I believe they will be addingto their smokes product line very soon.
My thought was they would be introducing another feed product. I believe the growth with smokes and feed will astonish even the pumpers(LOL)!
I was almost sure we would hear something by the end of the month regarding updates along with possible product launch, new patent.
and dog and pony show. So far nada...
Must be working very hard to get the new cig factory on line. Anybody here anything?
I did ask about the smokes also and awaiting a reply. My understanding is feed margins are going to increase. This is going to surpass all divisions including beverages next year. This is IMO. However, how big does cigs get in the next 2 years? MY guess is $4.0 mil this year $10 Mil in 11 $20 Mil in 12.
My expectation is $55-70 Mil in revenuesin 11 and $100+ MIl. the following year. Yes, call me a pumper but this will heat up much faster than many expect.
snow this is the answer I received pertaining to the patents which came from Frank at Hawk Assocites.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi Steven,
Thank you for your mail and interest in the company.
Here is the answer from the company.
Although patents were registered in the name of Mr. Wang, it was actually Heilongjiang Institute of Biological Development that invested in cactus feed research.
In China, it is easier for individuals to register a patent than a corporation. So Mr. Wang acted as a proxy for the Institute
The Institute signed an agreement in 2003 with China Kangtai Cactus CEO Mr. Wang which agreed to let Mr. Wang register the patents and transfer the titles to the institute.
The transfer took place in 2005.
At that time, China Kangtai Cactus did not have plans to launch a cactus feed product.
In 2008, the company started thinking about this product and got the institute to authorize the company to use its technology.
However, the agreement was due to expire in 2010 so the company bought the patents in 2010 from the Institute.
The Institute has no common ownership with the Company’s Officer/Director or General Manager/Director (significant Company stockholders), or their families, or others employed by the Company or stockholders in it.
It was not a related party transaction and money was paid to the Institute, which actually devoted the money and effort to develop the cactus feed patents.
The company explained this in the most recent 10Q under footnote 8.
Regarding your earlier question, I have not gotten answer yet and will get back to you later.
Feel free to send me email if you have any further question.
Best regards,
Thanks throwerw as that is very good news. I did not do the math but this is the sale price. How much is the wholesale price?
I believe cigs are catch on much faster than even us pumpers believe. They will also have the outsourcers too.
I also believe that feed does as good or better than cigs. What if they do 300% over last year. That was $2.1 Mil which would then put feed at $8 MIl in sales.
I also believe we are seriously undervalued but I am tapped out.
Again thanks
I'm one of the optimist here no doubt. However, it is based exactly on your points of interest.
What I like is so few people have picked this for their top 10 stock picks. I am puzzled tho that you have ckgt in your picks based on last years comments. That to is good with you being over in China that certainly gives you a leg up on DD.
Thanks for thearticle you posted last week.
Here goes the pump...I expect $30 Mil in sales for 2nd half and possibly .50 in earnings after the additional shares have been factored in. The 50 cents is full year.
It is available if you look in the 2008 filings when they actually did the financing. Probably in a few other places but I don't have the time to dig.
If you have a premium membership get with Traderfan as he probably has it readily available.
Go to Hawk Associates website. Once there contact Susan and ask her to get this info for you. It may slao given the expiration dates on annual report but just not sure.
Have you read the 10Q for Q2? If not, read it and onceyou get towards the bottom it is all there. Their was $1.0 Mil financing they did after the 6/30 filing. If you still can't find it let me know.
It is very important to read 10Q and annual reports. I strongly suggest this before ever buying an individual stock.
Good luck and hopefully this works out very well for us longs!