Empire Building 101
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Here is something to think about for anyone interested in buying CKGT.OB They tried prohibition years ago abd they have aggressively went after smoking In US and now many parts of the world. I still believe smoking and drinking are here for the duration but that is only an opinion.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Citi-Downgrades-Tobacco-siliconalley-1427991831.html?x=0&.v=1
Who is the lucky buyer scooping up all these cheap shares?
Sure would like an update on the dilution. Anybody know anything for sure? My guess is 1.25 Mil/Shares at 80 cents
2011 Revenue Forcast and we rock!
Here is another PR that talks about providing 100 tonnes of pulp which will be used for healthcare beverage products. They appear to be getting their ducks in a row for a whopper of a year and unless we have all been scammed, we have a tiger by the tail. Surely Tony doesn't bite.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/CORRECTING-and-REPLACING-bw-96606087.html?x=0&.v=2
Tgaderfan I must disagree with you and Drexion. Did you not read this PR? I believe we see news soon and Pappy's launch of healthcare products is in the works. Like cigs I think it will be outsourced. Here is the PR.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Kangtai-Cactus-Biotech-bw-3476255498.html?x=0&.v=1
I believe the price will reach a fair PE 6 of and agree with your .50 although the potential is their for higher earnings.
Yes, last year I had gains of 2,880%
Congrats on a very good year Joe!
In 2009 I had gains of 1800% and thought I was doing good! Unfortunately I lost 30% in 2010 as I was overweighted in ckgt.ob and undeweighted in ccme.
Some very good traders and investors here. Keep up the great DD and thanks to everyone for such a great message board. Looks like the year is going to start off very good.
Personally I would be very happy with $3 by yearend. In the event the cigs start smokin anything is possible. They need to uplist this year. Unfortunately they have been very quiet on this front.
Here are my predictions for 2011
1. US markets (S&P)- flat
2. Chinese markets (Shanghai) up 15%.
3. CGS space as a whole up 15%.
With oil nearing $100 it is only a matter of time before investors run to the exits in the US. Oil, IMO will once again be the villian and destroy any chance of a continued recovery. I think they call it the R. word.
Once this happens all the naysayers will come to see it our way(talking heads). This will bring lots of attention to board favorites with CCME at the top of the list. Personally ckgt.ob is my favorite with expectation very high for the new cig launch.
2011 will be the year of individual stock picking and basket approaches within any industry not the free lunch as in the past.
Many on the CGS board are calling for Chinese listed stocks to appreciate up to 50%. Personally I believe many such as ccme, sutr, cpsl, ckgt, and srry have the ability to double rather quickly. I'm very skeptical of US listed stocks except large multi-nationals as the US has huge deficit problems that aren't going away anytime soon. Tax increases are imminent and their is NO way about it. Not to mention the rising price of crude will put the brakes on much quicker than many expect.
I do own HSY,KO,KFT,KMB,MO,MOT,and WAG for US listed stocks and feel they are somewhat safe because of their dividends. IMO, CGS's are in much better position to outperform the US for a variety of reasons starting out with expendible money. The US consumer is strapped with debt and wage increases which are practically nil aong with job growth. The reporting of unemploment is totally ludicrous as many people are not even counted as once their benefits are exhausted they no longer included in the computations. Most manufacturing jobs are lower pay with 2 tier now the norm. Commodity prices will pressure food inflation much more than many suspect. Currently 40 million on food stamps and I believe this will grow an additional 10-20% annually for the forceable future.
Now you have CGS's within our space where they do have an inflation problem looming. Wages are the culprit with 20% increases annually. However, look at the buying power as they have a middle class that in all reality lready surpassed the US and growing rapid. I am willing to gamble within our space before adding any more money to the US markets. I personally believe the risk in China is much much less except for the scam risk than in the US. AS far as the inflation wage risk in China it to will subside as more jobs go back to the US because of the fuel costs.
IMO, the US goes back into a reccession before the next election.
Any price predictions for ckgt.ob yearend?
Happy New Year's to All along with Peace, Prosperity, and Good Health.
"I see a stock that should regain its former highs early on in 2011 as revenue continues strong & as margins improve to feed the bottom line. "
"They are starting to outsource more & more & with the arsenal of products yet to be introduced I see that as a good sign."
With an imminent ramp-up in smokes starting February and two other divisions cranking out 50% growth this remains unbelievably cheap by all metrics.
We should see Pappy's launch of health product in 2011.
Any Revenue estimares for 2011?
Will it be the average 30% growth or does it explode?
Personally I think it explodes and Q4(43% growth) is only a precursor of future expectations.
Steven
Forgot about the land sale. So in essence, they did around .37-.38 last year and will be about the same this year. Between the doubtful accounts and land sale about .05 a share.
snow,
I do believe we are in very good company with both companies. Personally I'm not convinced with the fish ponds or whatever they are called. You have valid points. Q4 will be key as they are calling for some very good numbers. If these fish ponds are so profitible why would you want partners? Especially with this amount of cash. This is my biggest problem along with the ability to duplicate through theft by partners and competitors. When you diversify risk you also share profits. Once the competition comes or a better mouse trap then what happens to the business model.
As far as ckgt and the cigs I feel the expansion into new countries and a new mouse trap(safer cigs) will be provide a much larger audience. Behaviors such as drinking and smoking come second nature and in most cases are life-long addictions and socially acceptible.
I believe .35 is a few pennies short but definately within your range. In reality they probably will be totally flat y/y. They have .22 in earnings for 9 months and I believe they will equal q4 last year because of the huge increase in sales thus I expect .37-.38 earnings. Last years's Q3 had a reversal on doubtful accounts to the tune of 500K. Thus the .11 reported was the same as last years even though it was reported as .13
IMO,next years earnings will return to the norms of 30%growth and 50% net income. As for earnings I believe the .55 projected by a few posters will prove to be low but for all intent & purposes a fair guide.
While I tend to agree with you on the earnings, the fact that SIAF has an IR firm that is shareholder friendly is the reason for the price. SIAF is very active with shareholders answering questions and doing videos showing their facilities and very clear on their future plans. With CKGT.OB no IR internally and vaguely answered questions and currently no questions being answered. I trust managment much more at ckgt.ob than siaf.pk While the divi paid by siaf.pk was no more than a gesture of gaining credibility after the filing debacle. With the grandiose plans siaf.pk have they should not be paying a dividend at all. Remember they have a lot of tax breaks and without them they could not afford any dividend. As far as being listed they are going on the bulletin board which IMO is only a tad better than pinkies.
Furthermore ckgt.ob has a B.V. of $1.89 per share and probably well over $2.00 after this Q with 21.4 Mil O/S with sales of $36 Mil for 2010. SIAF.PK hs a B.V. of $1.47 per share with 51.9 Mil O/S and $31 Mil in sales for the trailing 12 months. The only real positive I see with SIAF.PK is the cash on hand $15 Mil.
IMO,ckgt is clearly a better buy on all fronts. Don't think for a second that this cash position with SIAF.Pk is as strong ss it appears. Their growth will not come cheap as they're in a capital intensive industry.
While we can agree to disagree CKGT.OB beats SIAF.PK on almost every metric. Fortunately for SIAF.PK they do a much better job marketing thus the price variance.
I've e-mailed with no responce. Their was a death within is immediate family awhile back.
Why would I be here "24/7 for years bashing stocks?" Same reason some people talk about sports or politics all day. It's a hobby, perhaps a compulsion. But a darn profitable one. I've seen how stupid most investors are and have avoided it by putting my funds in quality things like bonds and blue chip stocks.
If you have no ownership or interest how would it be profitible?
I believe we now understand. Again how would this be profitible?
With posters putting out 4 year old PR's and implying fraud along with year end selling... dah. To many good samritan posts on this board and yet no holdings but blast management. Don't know who is worse, management for no update or the good samaratans that have ulterior motives here. Ain't nobody spending this much time except for their own gain. If anyone professes to have no interest they are definately up to NO good. Why else would you spend so much time digging for dirt with no intentions of buying. Why ren't they spending time looking for new opportunites as to wasting their time?
and believe me their is defintely unterior motives here!
Well thought out. I'm in
After looking at the 10Q I'm not 100% sure. Their was an awful lot of warrants that were excersized but were they sold? Maybe a glimmer of hope that some of the selling was done recently and no dilution. They could have thrown the towel in after all the conversion prices were between .60-$1.00 IMO, they did excersize and sell but once again not 100% sure now.
In November and December 2009, the Investor exercised 916,666 A warrants in a cashless exercise and received 598,006 shares of common stock.
In October 2009, the Investor exercised 333,334 A warrants at a price of $0.75 per share, or $250,000 total, and was issued 333,334 shares of common stock on January 18, 2010.
In February 2010, the Investor exercised 475,000 B warrants at a price of $1.00 per share, or $475,000 total.
During April and May, the Investor exercised a total of 275,000 B warrants at a price of $1.00 per share, or $275,000 total.
Joe I agree 100% but the dilution is no where's near as bad with ckgt.ob Many think SIAF.PK is a much safer bet, I for one am not in that camp.
Agreed, and I believe these shares have already been sold IMO.
The only thing the dividend does IMO is give it legitimacy. Other than that 1-2% is not going to give the upward movement many expected. However combining the dividend annoucement with rapid growth and earnings should definately be the catalyst for a much higher price next year.
Traderfan this is directly from prospectus in the filing:
"For the purpose of determining the number of shares of common stock to be offered by this prospectus, we have assumed that we will issue not more than 1,000,000 shares pursuant to the exercise of the Put. We currently do not intend to exercise the Put in a manner which would result in our issuance of more than 1,000,000 shares, but if we were to exercise the Put in that manner, we would be required to file a subsequent registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and that registration statement would have to be declared effective prior to the issuance of any additional shares."
Without an additional filing can we assume this was capped at the 1,000,000 shares? If not I look for the dilution at 1,200,000 shares. Your thoughts or anyone else?
If this be the case things may start to look up very soon.
Steven
That wuld be great. However, I'm not holding my breath as the selling was relentless and the timing unreal. On the bright side we undoubtedly picked up new investors and ample awareness.
Steve,
Anyway, as I said, I find this problematic, but both of you seem to think this is an appropriate, or at least an acceptable, way for management to run the company.
I don't think your wrong at all with your view as I share the same. Management is probablt eating crow after declining the Seaside at a much higherPPS. They tend to shy from anything that could appear as a negative. For example last year when they gave very good revenue forcast they did not give any guidance for net income. They did the same for Q4 of this year but did indicate profits would be good. AS far as the legality with a filing for the put option I believe it was a material event and should have been PR'ed. However, I could be wrong and somebody excersized old options/warrants and sold for a few pennies. Obviously this was NOT purely tax selling IMO. Still hanging on with a thread of hope that it was never excersized but in my heart I know better.
AS far as appropriate or acceptible absolutely not!
For the purpose of determining the number of shares of common stock to be offered by this prospectus, we have assumed that we will issue not more than 1,000,000 shares pursuant to the exercise of the Put. We currently do not intend to exercise the Put in a manner which would result in our issuance of more than 1,000,000 shares, but if we were to exercise the Put in that manner, we would be required to file a subsequent registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and that registration statement would have to be declared effective prior to the issuance of any additional shares.
This would put the cap at 1 Mil more shares as they have not did an SEC filing. Atleast that is how I read this. With a 17% discount that Kodiak received they definately will do fine on this deal.
Must say thesse last 2 PR's brought buying we have never seen before. That is real encouraging especially with tax selling.
Snow,
Without reading Joe' post that is exactly what I told a friend who has also been buying heavily. So much volume it was almost obvious. Hd they not did the PR's, the price would surely have been in the 50's. But then again, maybe they would not have sold so fast.
Hopefully, that takes care of the need for money and the cash flow kicks in. Unhappy about the dilution but the growth going forward surely should not disappoint.
I read the PR yesterday and assumed Qingdao Cigarette Factory would produce the cigs and everything had changed. Originally CKGT was to bring the technology in-house with samples already tried. Now the technology and the manufacture will be done in house at the Qingdao Cigarette Factory. Seemed like a change in direction with yesterdays PR.
The Shandong Province Government authorized the agreement in November. The company will manufacture this new brand using a new paper process technology with China Tobacco Shandong’s subsidiary, Qingdao Cigarette Factory. Plans are to begin full production in February 2011.
You make a much better case. I thought the paragraph above changed everything.
With neutriceuticals sales down in Q3 vrs year-ago and sales up 4% for the year they could very well be next on the chopping block. They did approximately $2.5 Mil in Q4 of 09. In the event sales are once again flat we have some huge growh in the following divisions. With 40 growth in beverages that sould come to $4.3 Mil. Raw Materials has been discontinued thus we have over $5 Mil in sales with the remaining product lines of cigs and feed. Lets be kind and give neutriceuticals 3.0 Mil for 25% growth which I think is a fallacy.
2010 2009
1) Neutriceuticals $3.0 vrs $2.5 Mil
2) Beverages $4.3 vrs $3.0 Mil
3) Cigarettes ? vrs $ .285 Mil
4) Feed ? vrs $ .800 Mil
5) Raw & intermediate discontinued vrs $ ?
6) Packaged Food discontinued vrs $ ?
Total $12.2 Mil vrs $9.523
Obviously we have some huge growth coming from cigs and feed this Q. Looks like something is growing HUGE. With managements statment pertaining to farmers we will probably see huge growth in that division. Also believe cigs perform in line with Pappy' million dollar Q. This is going to get exciting very soon.
It almost makes me think they did the put option and Kodiak is dumping the shares. Unbelievable to think this is just normal tax selling as over 1 million shares in 3 days have traded. Any thoughts or comments...anyone?
"For is it really the case that there's enough demand for three separate manufacturers to be cranking out these cigs? With no details it's impossible to say (unless someone remembers the terms--years--of the originally agreement."
The orginal subcontractor has a 5 year agreement. As far as the purchase of their own facilities they had already provided the details of the 55%/45% split of manufacturing the smokes. With the capacity of 260 million cigs within their own facility thats over 13 Million packs of smokes plus 45% manufactured by the original subcontractor.
While the ssumptions are rampant my understanding is they are currently going to have the orginal line of low/no nicotene smokes produced by themselves and the first subcontractor. The new subcontractor will establish a new market for the new brand with its patented technology in existing and new territories. This is my understanding from the PR's provided.
With over 300 Mil smokers in China alone and being tied in with the government this is a no-brainer. The newest agreement is gravy as they create a new revenue stream without the added expenditures other than suppling the raw materials. Why would the new subcontractors put a strain on their own manufacturing capabilities unless the investment is worthwhile? It would have been much easiar to collect royalties without the added expenses involved.
These are my thoughts based on the available info and appear to be reasonable with no other logical outcome. The volume in the last 2 days has been incredible with an average trade of 4k. The smart money is now here and the herd will follow. This stock has the potential to go parabolic with NO news based on this volume.
Pappy what are your thoughts on todays PR?
Full production in less than (2) months. Along with their own facilities, and outsourcing contract with 4 years. The volume has been incredible and this will lead to a much higher price. Definately some large trades went through today.
The Shandong Province Government authorized the agreement in November. The company will manufacture this new brand using a new paper process technology with China Tobacco Shandong’s subsidiary, Qingdao Cigarette Factory. Plans are to begin full production in February 2011.
With everything going on here lately, just how strong is the demand? It looks to be incredible to me.
Appreciate your thoughts on todays PR!Pappy and anyone else's. Yes even the negative ones and I'm sure their are many negatives today but I just don't see any.
CKGT gaining traction with some very nice block trades today. Looks like volume will surpass yesterdays which is very encouraging IMO.
Probably a little of both. Regardless, somebody has been buying absolutely huge blocks yesterday and today. I've got losses here but refuse to sell as I believe cigs are going to be bigger than everything CKGT produces combined.
I believe it is great news. However, as usual, many disagree. The PPS and the volume tell it all. But then again, maybe just continued tax selling.
Agree their is warts but without warts everything is usually fairly valued. As far as the bogus PR wiith earnings I agree as they flip back and forth on GAAP and non-GAAP reporting to make them look better.
My concern is the Kodiak deal which is material. They had until Dec.8 to either do the put option or expiration. While the dilution would be minimal it certain is newsworthy either way.
Obviously they want this awareness but I doubt this has anything to do with their cig manufacturing plant as this pertains to new product line. Here is a direct quote from the PR.
The Shandong Province Government authorized the agreement in November. The company will manufacture this new brand using a new paper process technology with China Tobacco Shandong’s subsidiary, Qingdao Cigarette Factory. Plans are to begin full production in February 2011.
New premium member as of today.
More news and it appears to be very good and clarifies a few things.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Kangtai-Cactus-Signs-bw-2324137813.html?x=0&.v=1
Guys I think your reading way too much in this period. Remember that timing of shipments can distort qtly making any qtly look better or worse initially. Here is another quote about smokes once again from the CEO.
"Our growth is driven by several important factors. Our cigarette business is growing even faster than we originally expected. For the first nine months cigarette revenue was $1.7 million up from $42,000 in the first nine months of 2009. In the third quarter of 2010, cigarette revenue was nearly $660,000. We believe we are going to continue to see robust growth in this segment of our business."
Remember management's forecast was $35 Mil Revenues which was totally accurate. They obviously knew N.I. on a PPS basis was going to be difficult and gave now such numbers. Knowing this does not give me a good feeling bout Kodiak. My guess now is they extended the time...unless they want to PR that this week after todays news gets digested. Now that would be so profound...
Their is (3) types of people (a) people who wonder what is happening (b) people who watch things happen (c) people who make things happen. Managements can be categorized in the same way. (a)They can do nothing and just slowly die. (b)They can buy out the competition while watching them grow (c) or they can be very innovative and use their resources on their own new products/ processes. WE all no where we stand.
P.S. You need to listen as management is telling us the cig business is growing rapidly and the patents are going to be very profitible as farmers are getting on board...Steven
Probably lots of tax selling and this was the news that helped those who were selling off their losers to offset winners.
Prices
Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
Mar 3, 2010 2.31 2.45 2.16 2.18 189,900 2.18
Mar 2, 2010 2.36 2.45 2.30 2.31 38,800 2.31
Mar 1, 2010 2.40 2.40 2.30 2.35 27,600 2.35
Feb 26, 2010 2.29 2.40 2.29 2.40 29,500 2.40
Feb 25, 2010 2.31 2.33 2.26 2.29 23,800 2.29
Feb 24, 2010 2.35 2.39 2.22 2.32 43,100 2.32
Feb 23, 2010 2.40 2.44 2.35 2.38 44,100 2.38
Feb 22, 2010 2.45 2.45 2.38 2.40 27,200 2.40
Feb 19, 2010 2.40 2.40 2.39 2.39 25,900 2.39
Feb 18, 2010 2.40 2.42 2.38 2.40 5,900 2.40
Feb 17, 2010 2.38 2.45 2.34 2.45 24,000 2.45
Feb 16, 2010 2.35 2.42 2.35 2.38 39,400 2.38
Feb 12, 2010 2.40 2.40 2.24 2.32 34,300 2.32
Feb 11, 2010 2.32 2.43 2.30 2.42 92,200 2.42
Feb 10, 2010 2.28 2.31 2.25 2.30 58,700 2.30
Feb 9, 2010 2.35 2.40 2.30 2.32 42,800 2.32
Feb 8, 2010 2.31 2.35 2.31 2.35 11,700 2.35
Feb 5, 2010 2.36 2.37 2.11 2.32 97,300 2.32
Feb 4, 2010 2.49 2.49 2.36 2.38 45,000 2.38
Feb 3, 2010 2.50 2.56 2.48 2.48 88,000 2.48
Feb 2, 2010 2.41 2.51 2.41 2.50 37,500 2.50
Feb 1, 2010 2.37 2.53 2.37 2.51 48,700 2.51
Jan 29, 2010 2.45 2.59 2.32 2.37 42,000 2.37
Jan 28, 2010 2.45 2.50 2.41 2.50 25,600 2.50
Jan 27, 2010 2.50 2.62 2.34 2.40 94,100 2.40
Jan 26, 2010 2.31 2.61 2.04 2.51 289,200 2.51
Jan 25, 2010 2.49 2.50 2.30 2.35 165,900 2.35
Jan 22, 2010 2.42 2.51 2.35 2.45 54,300 2.45
Jan 21, 2010 2.58 2.65 2.31 2.43 191,500 2.43
Jan 20, 2010 2.55 2.64 2.50 2.59 40,800 2.59
Jan 19, 2010 2.73 2.73 2.47 2.60 219,600 2.60
Jan 15, 2010 2.80 2.82 2.73 2.73 53,400 2.73
Jan 14, 2010 2.88 2.88 2.80 2.82 12,700 2.82
Jan 13, 2010 2.90 2.95 2.65 2.80 79,700 2.80
Jan 12, 2010 2.98 2.98 2.83 2.90 70,500 2.90
Jan 11, 2010 2.85 3.00 2.80 2.98 194,700 2.98
Jan 8, 2010 2.81 2.83 2.70 2.80 77,800 2.80
Jan 7, 2010 2.92 2.92 2.81 2.81 53,500 2.81
Jan 6, 2010 2.86 2.92 2.85 2.91 64,300 2.91
Jan 5, 2010 2.73 2.86 2.65 2.86 152,200 2.86
Jan 4, 2010 2.87 2.87 2.63 2.74 120,900 2.74
Dec 31, 2009 2.65 2.71 2.60 2.71 58,300 2.71
Dec 30, 2009 2.69 2.74 2.61 2.65 35,500 2.65
Dec 29, 2009 2.64 2.74 2.55 2.67 49,900 2.67
Dec 28, 2009 2.50 2.71 2.40 2.64 263,200 2.64
Dec 24, 2009 2.75 2.80 2.44 2.60 247,200 2.60
Dec 23, 2009 2.72 2.90 2.63 2.72 70,000 2.72
Dec 22, 2009 2.87 2.90 2.71 2.72 66,600 2.72
Dec 21, 2009 2.67 2.90 2.67 2.81 130,100 2.81
Dec 18, 2009 2.60 2.71 2.59 2.68 70,700 2.68
Dec 17, 2009 2.62 2.63 2.45 2.50 74,900 2.50
Dec 16, 2009 2.53 2.62 2.47 2.60 64,500 2.60
Dec 15, 2009 2.72 2.73 2.50 2.56 137,600 2.56
Dec 14, 2009 2.50 2.80 2.45 2.70 272,600 2.70
Dec 11, 2009 2.08 2.43 2.08 2.43 158,300 2.43
Dec 10, 2009 2.09 2.09 2.02 2.08 21,900 2.08
Dec 9, 2009 2.06 2.09 2.01 2.06 35,100 2.06
Dec 8, 2009 2.09 2.13 2.07 2.10 32,400 2.10
Dec 7, 2009 1.98 2.10 1.98 2.09 91,600 2.09
Dec 4, 2009 1.96 2.09 1.96 1.98 55,600 1.98
Dec 3, 2009 1.97 2.13 1.96 1.97 203,700 1.97
Dec 2, 2009 1.98 1.98 1.85 1.97 144,600 1.97
Dec 1, 2009 2.09 2.09 1.98 2.05 43,400 2.05
Nov 30, 2009 2.14 2.14 1.95 2.07 175,800 2.07
Nov 27, 2009 2.10 2.15 2.00 2.14 156,300 2.14
Nov 25, 2009 2.21 2.22 2.05 2.16 350,400 2.16
* Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.
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