Empire Building 101
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Seller is back! Who is buying all of these shares at .85?
Furthermore you can't buy CKGT what you sold it for and you can't sell hsyt.pk what ou paid for. Now to mention the costs involved in buying and selling. Know what you own!
Why the BS? You already said you sold here? You have already stated that you sold and moved on. Instead of trying to convince people that hyst.pk is a better buy. Why would anyone sell and buy a pinkie unless they had inside info which is illegal is beyond me. Since you sold in the mid 80's uness you are lying the atock is now trading in the 90's. You have been posting that CKGT.OB is dead money so please move on and enjoy counting your money. Bringing a stock to the board is one thing....
Regardless GL with your new investment!
P.S. People who tend to trade alot chasing the latest tip tend to lose. However, joenatural is the exception. He does DD that INO is exceptional...kind of like Traderfan!
Here is what I posted on dilution on investorvilliage.
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=6804&mn=1076&pt=msg&mid=10183413
"In regard to investor vs trader I am clearly an investor and in for 2-3 years. However I think it is always good to reflect which sentiment dominates the markets. In Hongkong I am running 3 years against market opinion in a special stock of mine, and regret not having switches before. In the end, market flows can beat conviction for a long time, you should consider that in your decisions.
so let´s stay long together"
I couldn't agree with you more. Your example was excellent if it had the fundamentals and not just the TA. The problem they can sit dorment for months and many cases a few years. That's the whole secret knowing when to pull the trigger...I orginally pulled it way to soon on CKGT.OB after selling at $2.50+. I believe like Buffet if I liked it at $2 what has changed with the company fundamentally? In the case with CKGT.OB absolutely nothing except they paid $8Mil for patents which I thought they owned. They explained their reasoning and up until now they have not lied on anything thus the benefit of the doubt. Oh did I mention Book Value will be over $2. Again I love the history here which is over 5 years where many of the problems here are RTO mergers with an unlimited and unbelievable history. The ones I'd run from are the ones claiming to have millions in the bank yet doing a secondary.
Again I like history here but a little concerned on dilution. They are cash starved because of the awesome demand for cigs which will probably need even more cash not to mention product launches.
Looking for some very good numbers from their feed products. I look for $3-4 Mil this year and $8 Mil next year.
I trust management here because of their ownership. They have only diluted when necessary for growth purposes only. This you gotta like!
'cheese head' do I know you? I'm now a hoosier but my roots are Wisconsin.
It was mentioned from a prior poster who talked with Amy at Hawk Associates that they were considering an upgrade with an auditor. IMO, this goes hand in hand with an uplisting snd only speculation on my part. I reamin very optimistic here and the market does not scare me as all major sell offs have been very profitible to the investors who invest on fundamentals and not market sentiment. Good Luck!
"The long history is one thing that reassured me to invest,and I will keep it but it seems to be to early to increase positions."
The history is the main reason I believe. As far as to early too invest it very well may be the case. With a demonstrated growth of 30%+ it certainly will come in favor once again. If the cigs are as strong as many think they are the 30-35% growth
will be blown out of the water. Buy when nobody wants the stock providing fundamentals are intact has proven time after time to be very profitible.
"In the case of CKGT the 8 mln expense for the animalfeed patent is worrying (will they repeat that in 2011?) and nobody knows the cost structure of activey marketing the cigs. Will they give out a guidance for 2011 ? Would be good to get an idea."
While I don't see history repeating itself I certainly expect an annoucement pertaining to construction of a much larger Corporate Office. In an R&R ponyshow CKGT.OB expected margins in the high 30's before the launch. I don't see much changing as they have put off new product releases. This tells me they have very high expectations here and margins could increase. As far as 2011 forcast I've sked but have not had any replies.
"In my view nobody dares to take positions in case some shorters would ride an attack.It may take longer to overcome that effect."
This is a view I do not share especially if your investing and not a trader. Right now your viewe has been communicated beyond belief yet even with CCME many are seeing past the forrest otherwise this to would be below $10. If buying when their is blood in the streets is trully the time to buy then obviously the timing is right. Unfortunately panic mode sets in and everyone and their brother has their finger on the sell button...instead of buying.
My extreme bullishness with CKGT.ob has more to do with actually getting cig samples and the responces to flavor, packaging, etc. With all the negativity towards smoking and its effects I believe a safer cig is going to get lots of media coverage going forward.
I've been upfront with my views and if your not a trader please express your views and not what the media and everyone else wants you to believe. China is waaay to tied to America as the western style of living has not only been accepted but embraced beyond even my optimistc expectations. China does understand this unlike many of these countries with dicatorships which are in total disarray.
Long and Very Strong CKGT.OB!!!!!!
Looks like someone painted the tape at EOD. Continued weakness will not abate until news as MM's are in control with such low volume.
With this continued weakness within our space with many companies going the the route of reverse merger mania in the last couple of years I've one question that puzzles me. CKGT.OB went this route 6 years ago. Why are they being stigmatized with the broad based fraud allegations with a history this long? Most companies that have had fraud allegations except for UTA(which have been refuted) have had a very short history.
Being out of favor is one thing but trading at these levels is crimnal to say the least. I understand that y/y comps are down on a net income basis. Does that merit a PE as low as this? Not to mention they have 60% market share.
Understand that their are others in the same situation but are they growing at 35% a year with no insider trading for 3 years? With a history(5+ years)along with smokes which are touted as a safer cig tht will be going international?
The price alone is indicative that I'm the fool here but like the captain I will not jump ship as many have done so. While I made the statement that cigs would go international this is MY opinion based on my DD.
My projections are for an uplisting this year along with a new auditor. Also news cig related for major expansion beyond Asia.
Also construction plans announced publicly for a new corporate office to be completed in 2012.
Agreed Arno but atleast they are recommending this stock. Hawk currently picked 5 out of the 15 or so they cover and CKGT was one of them. I am very optimistic and think after Q1 we are off to the raises. Only 300 shares traded today! If it goes lower I have a stink bid in.
CKGT.OB Picked for 2011.
http://www.amistockreports.com/11_01_05_AMI_2011_outlook.pdf
This is why I think CKGT.OB is an absolute steal. Read Business Outlook.
China Kangtai Cactus
Shares Outstanding (MRQ): 21.24 mill
New Shares / Dilution (TTM): 1.54 mill 7.80%
Cash (MRQ): 0.55 mill 3.01%
Account Receivables (MRQ): 6.41 mill 35.12%
Account Receivables (Q/Q): + 1.66 mill 34.92%
Long-Term Debt (MRQ): 0.05 mill 0.28%
Revenue Growth (Q/Q): 9.04%
Revenue Growth (Y/Y): 16.31%
Net Income Growth (Q/Q): 47.09%
Net Income Growth (Y/Y): -8.94%
EPS Growth (Y/Y): -15.53%
Net Margin (Q/Q): 24.2% (17.9%) 6.30%
Net Margin (Y/Y): 24.2% (30.9%) -6.70%
EPS | P/E (2 MRQ Projection): $0.36 2.36
CFPS | P/CF (2 MRQ Projection): $0.22 3.89
Price/Sales (2 MRQ Projection): 0.50
Price/Book (MRQ): 0.46
Auditor: Michael T. Studer CPA
Forward Projections (Fiscal Year)
EPS | P/E (Estimates updated 2010-10-31): $0.25 3.44
Basic Facts and History (show more)
Reporting Type: U.S. Company (10-K Filings)
Going Public: Reverse Merger on 2005-05-13
Business Outlook
In China, cigarette manufacturing is a government monopoly, which designates only one cigarette brand for each province. We are now the first publicly held company to sign a joint manufacturing agreement with a government-owned cigarette manufacturer. This will enable us to make important progress in growing market share for our products and further enhances our revenue growth potential. This agreement creates mutual benefit for both companies. The low-nicotine and non-nicotine cactus cigarette product coincides with the government's initial step to promote less harmful products to the huge smoking population in China. It is estimated that more than 300 million people in China are regular smokers. Furthermore, we plan to export "Tai Shan Sheng Chao" cigarettes to Russia, South Korea and Japan through our established sales channels. We are confident that cactus-based cigarettes have a promising future to broaden shareholder value for both companies in a long term.
(Source: Business Wire, 2010-12-15)
The last line is clear "we are confident that cactus-based cigarettes have a promising future to broaden shareholder value for both companies in a long term"
Doesn't this register with anyone besides me? Broaden shareholder value for both companies. Sheesh, to broaden CKGT.OB would be an expectation as it is so small. But here we have a government owned cig manufacturer stating what? Remember they are going from 80 brands to 20 brands in China within 5 years. IMO, this puts CKGT.OB squarely in the middle. It's no wonder they have put all energies squarely in cigs.
Looking for some news this week with the smokes. Markets are closed this Monday so the wait continues. Looking for a rally here as their is NO basis for this stock to be at a PE of 2. Some people are selling just for the fact their patience is running thin confirmed on the Yahoo board. If nothing else we should see a rally into earnings. Growth up 43% and no interest for Q4. Wait until we get Q1 results this is gonna rock. Q1 revenues were up 65% in 2010 with low margin product. This will not be the case when results are released in May.
Good news Steve as I believe this news is major. Too many are discounting this and will be sorely disappointed once it becomes a reality.
Certainly awfully quiet here considering the new manufacturing plant should be in full production soon if it hasn't already happened. My guess is we hear news right after the Chinese New Year.
Imagine what a PR like this could do for the stock.
"China Kangtai Annouces Major Expansion As Cig Demand Soars"
While I doubt they would ever PR something like this I believe it is very possible. Don't forget who they are affiliated with and what the impact this will have. This will bring credibility and institutional interest. While this may sound insane or even an irrational statement and construed as pumping this is exactly what my DD suggests. My understanding is Cigs are going very well and management is focusing here for the near-term as margins are excellent.
My concern is the immediate need for cash.
Certainly would NOT want to be in CCME's situation with almost $200 Mil in Cash and the inability to initiate the stock buyback announced months ago.
Looks like we have people selling here. Probably people using the proceeds to buy CCME. I thought about it yesterday when CCME was at $10.60 but couldn't pull the trigger. I believe....our day will come.
As I have stated no ownership. This friggin thing is all over Yahoo and now I post it with a link and I'm shorting it. This is probably a good reason to cancel premium membership. Sorry I'm not in the cheerleading group but I ain't negative either as I have no funds to buy or short!
I understand and that trully was not my intent. I thought it was newsworthy and nothing more.
Here is another link....different than the last one. I hold no shares as I'm stuck in CKGT.OB
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Levi-Korsinsky-LLP-Launches-bw-3600995954.html?x=0
No idea if they will but the fact that they are investigating is certainly not going to be good news. They are like cockroaches and from my prior experiences once lawyers get involved it is time to move on. JMHO
It isn't a lawsuit yet only an investigation on Yahoo board.It was on prior post. Here is the jest of it all.
BENSALEM, Pa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Law Offices of Howard G. Smith announces that it is investigating potential claims on behalf of purchasers of the securities of China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (“CME” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ:CCME - News) concerning possible violations of federal securities laws. CME is a Hong Kong-based provider of television advertising on the Company’s network of television displays installed on inter-city express buses in China.
The investigation focuses on allegations that certain statements issued by the Company between March 31, 2009 and January 31, 2011, regarding CME’s business, operations, and prospects were materially false and misleading. On January 30, 2011, analyst firm Citron Research published a report alleging that CME has misrepresented, among other things, the scope of the Company’s operations, its financial performance, and the extent of the Company’s claimed strategic partnership with a government-affiliated entity. The Citron Research report concluded that the Company “does not exist at the scale that they are reporting to the investing public.”
If you purchased China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. securities between March 31, 2009 and January 31, 2011, if you have information or would like to learn more about these claims, or if you wish to discuss these matters or have any questions concerning this announcement or your rights or interests with respect to these matters, please contact Howard G. Smith, Esquire, of Law Offices of Howard G. Smith, 3070 Bristol Pike, Suite 112, Bensalem, Pennsylvania 19020 by telephone at (215) 638-4847, Toll Free at (888) 638-4847, or by email to howardsmith@howardsmithlaw.com, or visit our website at www.howardsmithlaw.com.
Here come the lawsuits...and usually never a good ending for the common shareholder. The vultures are coming and even if everything comes out clean this ain't gonna away anytime soon.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Law-Offices-of-Howard-G-Smith-bw-1061930965.html?x=0&.v=1
Thanks Steven for calling Amy. I;ve been very busy and unable to call Amy although I did get an e-mail today from her. Again Thanks.
I really don't think it is a scam at all but it is probably the only legitimate stock that is still down over 50%. Finding it very
difficult to believe we haven't moved at all since tax selling with the potential this stock has. Maybe next year....
IMO, I still believe that cigs are going to be HUGE with the deal with the government. The implications with this and the move sanctioned to a healthy cigarette all but assures our future. Maybe I'm the only one dumb to believe this and put over 50% of my funds into this.
As far as getting a different auditor that may very well be good news. At some point management will wake up and realize they get no respect until they get off the BB. We should hear something this year as they have been told many times and eventually this point becomes clear also.
Management has made it very clear the direction they have chosen and the rational. With this in mind and the limited info it is a given that margins will be increasing as management had called for high margins in the range of 40%. IMO, Amy's comment about spreading themselves to thin is well thought out.
How long is the Chinese New Year?
Undoubtedly this stock is acting more and more scammy. While not totally convinced at this point this thought is coming to mind lately. If it wasn't for actually seeing the samples of smokes I'd be long gone. I e-mailed Amy again today and demanded answers. If no reply I will be contacting them as they are the listed I.R. firm and they need to respond. Has anyone heard anything? This can NOT be good.
This is very interesting. They plan on eliminating 80 brands by 2015. Lots of talk in China about safer cigs and government intervention. This could be bigger than anyone could ever imagine considering the amount of smokers in China and Asia.
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90778/90860/7192765.html
Preaching to the choir yet nobody cares(old news). Full production starts in Feb. We should see $1.5 Mil in Q1
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Kangtai-Cactus-Signs-bw-2324137813.html?x=0&.v=1
Certainly seems like unlimited selling here. We need an update on these cigs. Everything is gaining traction except our little gem. Maybe I'm wromg and this is a scam. I'm beginning to wonder. I used to get answers from Hawk but not anymore.
Unfortunately they have until March 31. With a yearend filing they get 90 days to file.
Snow I would have to agree wholeheartedly to your comment. The problem IMO was to get farmers to actually try the products. Unfortunately they did not give samples to farmers and do the promotion they did with the cigs. Once farmers actually try the products and can actually validate what the company ssys, sales will increase. That being the case we are seeing sales growing very nicely as y/y sales with feed will be up 100%. Once the demand is their management should raise prices and the margins go up. Look at cactus cigs unless you have actually tried them who could believe? With the samples given to me I passed them out and many said they were similar to a Marlboro although somewhat weaker. CKGT.OB needs to market everything they produce as a heaalthier choice. With the amount of R&D and with the caliber of people involved, surely their is merit in the claims they have made.
You were correct. My post was more focused on top line growth which will ultimately lead to an improved bottomline. SGA should go down on a percentage basis. My point being margins will be down from historical levels with no expectation to return as feed becomes a larger part of their business. With such an accurate call what are your 2011 expectations with the limited info?
Know that we know what expectations are for Q4 cigs and the demonstrated growth in existing businesses, feed sales become much clearer for Q4 and they will be excellent.
Neutriceuticls $2.5 ($3.0 Mil)
Beverages $3.0 ($4.3 Mil)
Cigs $.285 ($1.2 Mil)
Feed $.800
I gave Neutriceuticals a 25% growth vrs year ago which is probably waay to high with growth basically flat for 2010. I gave Beverages a 45% growth being historical norms and the given is cigs. Thus we have $8.5 Mil with the remaining $3.7 Mil Revenues falling within feed and possibly raw materials. They have a pulp contraact which will probably fall in raw materials. IMO, we will begin to see feed sales go balistic and the patent expense becoming transparent with these new results. However it would be nice to see Beverages get a bulk of these sales as the margins are much better.
Now its the margins...good grief. We knew they would come down with feed growing rapid with lower margins.
I've always said cigs would be huge while many were very skeptical. Orginally being a wait and see attitute for many, which was understandable. Now we revisit the margin issue which when thoroughly examined is explainable. Q1 2010 margins were down huge because of a huge order(up 600%) for raw material which has since been discontinued for higher margin cigs. This transition has been costly in regards to margins but has been creeping up q/q.
The biggest margin problem is feed. Margins are historically in the 15-18% and will impact the businesses marginally by about 3-5% points. While this appears large remember this particular segment is going to grow expotentiously(sp) to the tune of 100% annually for the next 3-5 years which alone will put pressure on margins even with higher margin cigs and beverages. Cigs/Beverages will offset some of the margin pressure as they will be in the 40% range it will not totally offset the 15-18% feed.
What I find puzzling is so many individuals on CGS board have bashed Chinese Microcaps while the worst offenders are the uplisters, such as TSTC, UTA,and NEP to name a few with accounting issues, unsubstantiated contracts, raising money on offerings with the stock at all-time lows with millions in the bank. IMO, these are the real culprits with margin problems etc.
Steven
Traderfan what are your thoughts of cigs in q4? The $1.2 mil in sales is very encouraging to say the least.
"But, I've talked to Zack --- I had a few nights of difficulty sleeping after talking generalizations with him as he isn't interested in talking specifics... as that is his competitive edge."
My understanding is Zack and you have both visited China and are some what friends. Yet he refuses to talk specifics and you had problems sleeping. Whoa...you went to China and clearly have a very good concept of what is happening and he won't talk to you because he wants to sell this info for a profit. This is a friend to stay clear of. Yet Zack posts the stocks he owns and makes it clear they passed his DD. I find this very unprofessional and unacceptible to say the least and not one mention of the stocks he interviewed.
Looks like feed is going to be huge! They did 800k last year and it looks like they do in excess of $2.0 Mil. Our time is coming once this becomes official!
Maybe not with ckgt.ob. In Hawks article with ckgt.ob they arer forcasting $1.2 Mil in cig sales for q4. Don't know how I missed that. It must have come from management. That is up 100% from q3 cig sales. Here is the link.
http://www.hawkassociates.com/pdf/profile/CKGT.pdf
Don't know how I ever missed this but it is on Hawks website. Says q4 cigs are estimated at $1.2 Mil. This is going to be very good news. Did anybody ready this? Its been in there since Dec. 15 no wonder we had all that volume. Please read this.
http://www.hawkassociates.com/pdf/profile/CKGT.pdf
Agree... but didn't that article with cyxi's CEO which has been scheduled for execution for fraud kind of state China's view of fraud. If I were a CEO I would certainly have 2nd thoughts before doing something tht could be perceived as fraud. Obviously they don't believe in 2 chances. Definately this article is not good for our space.
I believe the selling is coming to an end! Also q1 will be the last q under $10 Mil. Before you say anything remember Q1 09 had sales in the $3 Mil mark so obviously anyone with half a brain can see where this is growing I mean going. My expectation is over $9.0 Mil. Again I think the selling is about done and the only thing we need now is the eye-popping PR we have all been waiting for.
We should soon find out alittle bit more about those huge volume days a month ago. A very nice write-up is coming soon!
I've e-mailed Hawk 3 times in the last month with no responce. These were questions pertaining to Kodiak and PR related questions. For example the CEO stated that cigs would be 20% of sales in 2011. Exactly why would you not PR 2011 guidance? Another being their facility producing 55% while the 1st outsourcer does the remaining 45%. Now you have the last cig agreement or is it a JV? While I believe strongly in ckgt.ob they need to do a much better job of explaining themselves in their PR's as people are more confused after reading them. Very surprized as Amy always got back with me. Aanybody been able to get any answers from Hawk. My HOPE is this is so big...opps I'm dreaming.
I've e-mailed Hawk 3 times in the last month with no responce. These were questions pertaining to Kodiak and PR related questions. For example the CEO stated that cigs would be 20% of sales in 2011. Exactly why would you not PR 2011 guidance? Another being their facility producing 55% while the 1st outsourcer does the remaining 45%. Now you have the last cig agreement or is it a JV. While I believe strongly in ckgt.ob they need to do a much better job of explaining themselves in their PR's as people are more confused after reading them. Very surprized as Amy always got back with me. Aanybody been able to get any answers from Hawk. My HOPE is this is so big...opps I'm dreaming.
Anybody know what happened to Zack Buckley? Last I knew he was in China but have heard nothing in months?