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Here's a couple of charts to mull over and after this I'm going to crack open a nice bottle of red. It's been a good day.
SOX:SPX ratio..I think it's trying to put in a double bottom. If your wondering why I have the fibs where they are...I cut off what I thought was a bubble top. 3 other charts that may be of interest to some.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$sox:$spx,uu[e,a]malayiay[d19900101,20051231][pc8!c26!c3...
Watch for NASI to start to turn up at the 0 line, if it doesn't ...ouch. If it does, then we have some sort of bottom but then I'd be watching for a right shoulder to form. (I'm always worrying about something)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$nasi,uu[e,a]dicayiay[d20040504,20051231][ph.02,.20!c26!...
Looking at IBM to test the 40 week ema for a bottom. Looking for BKX to also test it's 40wema fwiw.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=IBM,uu[w,a]wacayiay[d20030301,20051231][pc40!c26!b8!c34!...
and one more, looking for one:vxo to bottom at the .06 area...sort of an ABC down to there. Although that TL could hold it. That's it...nighty night all.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$one:$vxo,uu[e,a]dalayiay[dd][pc8!c26!c34!f][vc60][iut!l...
What's Monday? Glad you mentioned that....being from the Great White North I wasn't aware there is a holiday Monday. Glad I didn't buy any near month options. heehee
Watch for a macd cross here...then things will get ugly...I cried wolf the other day, but I still think it's going to go.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$vxo,uu[w,a]eacayiay[d20][pc4!c8!c26!c34!h.02,.20!f][vc6...
Well they're manage to close the dow above 10500. They may drop the futures over night and gap this baby below 1076 in the morning. This could get a little more ugly than I thought. Still looking for 1140/50 low late next week.
spx hourly , test of lows and bullish divergence. (so far)
to be clear...looking for short term bottom only
Thanks AJ, and back at you too. Nice to be acknowledged, this is a good board.
I've just bought puts on PD. Have a look at the chart and take a look at the pattern on COPPER. A breakdown on copper should throw PD in a tail spin. fwiw
link to copper:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$copper,uu[w,a]wacayiay[d20021001,20051231][pc8!c34!c8!c...
I can't remember if I posted this here...I posted this on another board back in early Dec. Comments are from then too. If we indeed are just in a big bear market rally..an ABC ..then TRAN may have topped. I figure trannies should bounce at that next TL but the best we are going to do is a test of top. I still think the broadmarket, ie vle and wlsh have topped but we are still going to get new highs in the big caps. So what I'm thinking is that we get a new high in the dow but TRAN won't confirm and we'll have a big nonconfirmation again. If we get another leg up, I'll be watching OEX to top out 600/615. All crystal balling blah blah stuff. I'll link an oex chart but it's real busy and messy. Comments on that oex chart refers to an ABC but it's more like finishing a 5 at 600 area. Hey...it's slow this afternoon, might as well throw some ideas out there.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$tran,uu[w,a]wacayiay[d20020101,20051231][pb200!c40!c8!c...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$oex,uu[e,a]macayiay[d19950101,20051231][pb10!b40!b80!f]...
Utilities are often a leading indicator of market strength, often leading by 6months or so.(so "they" say) A break of neckline would also crack the 10ema on the weekly, which would lead me to believe the 40wema will get tested. 40 week ema is approx. near the last breakout area.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$uty,uu[w,a]dacayiay[db][pd20,2!b200!b50!c4!c8!c26!c34!f...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$uty,uu[w,a]wacayiay[d20040401,20051231][pc10!c40!c4!c8!...
If that's a short squeeze goin' on over on tasr.....I would really like to meet the genius that was shorting down in the low teens.
And on the indices...if we are going to get any rally today, it's going to come after oil stops trading or backs off. imvho
Anyone playing the canuck buck? I covered a short taken yesterday this morning and was looking to reshort. I just looked at an hourly and noticed that we may have a cup with handle forming that would target a test of the highs. Just a heads up. I'm flat and will wait.
and on a side note...what's goin on over at AMEX , looks like they are going to bust option trades on aapl this morning.
Nice move on ffiv...that's a breakout on the hourly . broke above DTL
Disagreeing is good Jerry...that's what makes markets. My opinion only but as I said...I'll play the break so technically I'm not bias. Bias is a four letter word. heehee
Interesting daily chart for the spx. Falling wedge or H&S. If sentiment were a little more bearish I'd have full confidence in the falling wedge....however...as I mentioned yesterday, we need a scarey dip and I still think we sell off all next week. So...I'll play the break. H&S measured move would be to a possible channel line I drew in. Don't like the action in the futures, oversold bounce yesterday and then some excitement before AAPL's numbers. Futures didn't budge AFTER their numbers. AAPL is more company specific anyways...in fact it's more product specific.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]dacayiay[d20040801,20051231][pb200!b50!c4!c8...
and I think 1196 should cap this rebound, don't think we get much past that before another leg down.
Geez...those cme calls are up 2 bucks already, Thank you IB alarms!
nice wedge break and that little inverted H&S moved almost to target. However..we dont' want to see it close back inside the wedge..fake poke means hard down to the bottom in most cases.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SPX,uu[w,a]eacayiay[d10][pc4!c8!c26!c34!d20,2!f][vc60][....
spx right on the 50dsma....just a heads up
bought the feb 210 calls, not cheap but this thing could run back up to 220 in an afternoon.
CME is probably a great buy right here.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=cme,uu[w,a]wacayiay[d20040201,20051231][pc4!c8!c26!c34!f...
If I didn't know any better, I'd say this market is waiting on APPL....sure feels like it. I can't find a market that's moving..currencies have dryed up too.
What ever pop we get today thru friday is short lived I believe. I think we sell off next week into lows 1040/50 and then a very swift reversal after opex. There is still no fear out there, we need a dip to dirty the diapers.
Money today is headed for the safehavens......like RIMM and TASR. wink wink, nudge, nudge.
if we break 1184 spx, there could be some upzn momo.
Das isn ze doonsiden tergetzn fer Herr Mathais toozn.
Could be putting on a wee inverted h&s on the spx hourly. Forming right shoulder now if it holds the neckline.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]eacayiay[d10][pc4!c8!c26!c34!d20,2!f][vc60][...
A picture is worth 10 or 20 words. Play the break either way. Could make a case for a wedge. The blue TL coming out of nowhere is a neckline on a bigger H&S. fwiw.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]eacayiay[d10][pc4!c8!c26!c34!d20,2!f][vc60][...
OH..and the 50 day ma coming in at 1186.07
yep, and you've got the midband, 26ema and 34ema right there too. Same as RUT, I saw no bullish divergence at the lows.
Well above it now, parallel resistance is next. blah blah blah
Could be just a kissback to neckline before more afternoon down. If we close an hour back above, we may have a short term low in place
test post
spx is going to close beneath the 50, dow very close to doing the same.
This may interest anyone looking for a short...H&S top formation and macd could be putting on the right shoulder too.
I've still got a target of 385 for the measured move off the H&S top on sox. AJ, have you got a count on sox? Maybe ABC complete or ...... a real bear might count that we are in a middle of a 3 down still
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$sox,uu[e,a]dacayyay[dc][pb200!b50!c4!c8!c26!c34!f][vc60...
Let's see what they do with INTC last hour.
It's not the logic I try to understand....I've done alot of observing and have used the setups in the past and they do work. But your right, I can't explain it.
Follow this one just for interest sakes, if I'm right, rsi should hit 70 or just slightly less. But it has to break 50 first
spx hourly
support or downage?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]eacayiay[d20][pc4!c8!c26!c34!d20,2!f][vc60][...
Here's something to watch if we are going to get another swift leg down. Keep your eye on a vxo hourly. There is an inverted H&S on the rsi, neckline right at 50. A move through there and we are most likely getting at least another 10/15 spx downside points.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$VXO,uu[w,a]eacayiay[d7][pc5!c13!c21!f][vc60][iut!Ub13!L...
When dyslexia can help in trading long...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=tsra,uu[w,a]dacayiay[db][pb200!b50!c4!c8!c26!c34!f][vc60...