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porter,
You wrote: ".and least but not last, another a paulin g deckleration: "I'm an expert in middle yeast policy" " ...
That's really good !!! I'll use it on my Wife, and if I survive, I'll be back.
Thanks,
rr
on a blog Accrued Interest, this quote yesterday:
"For what it's worth, the euro-dollar futures market, which essentially is a traded market on LIBOR predicts the 3-month rate will fall from 4.63 to 3.99% tomorrow."
anyone here follow this voodoo?
rr
AJ:
Add this to the list of stuff I never thought I'd see ...
"I think we may be consolidating between today's lows and yesterday's highs."
yesterday's high: 1044.31
today's so far low: 925.15
A 'consolidation range' of 120 spx points, or, about 10%.
OMG ...
rr
Relatively strong. Other central banks making HelioBen seem relatively grounded.
rr
Stockcharts is back up.
rr
Canna',
Closing the markets will not 'calm people'. Merely let's them panic at the next open.
Don't know of any historical examples where it's worked.
rr
I read one of Mauldin's out of thee box reports last night, I think, which was massively bearish on the semi's. He's got a big email dist. list.
rr
G:
I lurk mostly, but I read all of the posts on this board.
Your work is appreciated. It's a useful, numbers based, view of the market. The institutional buying trends are very insightful.
Thanks,
rr
LG: You know, sometimes what I do at work isn't worksafe ...
Sometime, if you feel like it, I'd find it useful to hear about patterns to recognize 'tops' after 'bottoms'. Specifically, does what you see for a bottom have any influence on what you look for in the next top. Vice versa, too.
Oh, and I'm sure you can afford better beer for your friends. Shiner, at least.
rr
You wrote:"why would there be margin calls with the market up? "
Theory being, it went down, a lot, last week. There's a lot of margin debt. Today's gain didn't get us past last Wednesday. And a good chunk of that came in the last hour or so.
Would a broker call you back and say 'never mind. there's a gap up today?'.
But hey, good to see it's working out. Sort of.
rr
Shouldn't there have been a lot more margin calls today (and tomorrow)?
Does panic really wear off after a shortish weekend?
I'm feeling manipulated, and not in a good way.
rr
LG:
You do good work. I'd bet if you had a party with all your lurkers, we could empty a beer truck in an afternoon.
And, the entertainment value is pretty good too.
Regards,
rr
T:
You do good work. Glad you're back from ... where ever
rr
LG: "Do you know who said ...?"
Jerry Olsen?
Ok, I'll stop ...
rr
Hey, you're right.
LG, can I have all your account names and passwords too? Oh, got any credit cards? Long weekend for the Wife.
Best regards, and TIA,
rr
G,
You wrote:"I think the Rep's knew in advance of this mess so they ran a loser hoping the Dem's would get in because only God can straighten this mess out..and I wouldn't be surprised if He isn't doing this to get our focus back on Him instead of the dollar.."
I agree, except that I think they ran someone they were willing to have damaged. More sacrificial than abandoned.
Same volcano, though
Ameritrade's crashing ... the web site, that is ...
I've got a preferred bank stock that's up 60% plus ...
We live in a country where 'we the People' believe the two parties are somehow bi-polar, in a good way. 8 years of one party in the executive will lead to at least 4 years of the other. Especially if something dramatic and bad happens before the election.
And, yes, we will be considered crazy for having The One (tm) be elected.
Sigh ...
rr
hello,
good to see your opinions and work.
this from DWA. The BPNDX isn't ready yet ...
Bullish Pct For NYSE Bull Percent (BPNYSE)
Updated Through- 10/09/2008 (4.12 Down 1.36)
Best luck,
rr
Probably the same. I only see them here and on Trend1's thread.
Both aj and Trend1 follow the same 'numbers from Les'. Can't be two of 'em.
rr
I'll bet you that the BPNYSE went down today, and that Les' numbers went as close to 0 as they've ever been.
And, I don't think this is the bottom, either.
rr
Too late. I've been throwing up all week.
You might have some people landing on the sidewalk about now.
nfg at all,
rr
Perhaps it makes more sense to think of it as "forced sellers exhaustion", rather than "fear / panic EVERYONE out of the pool" selling exhaustion.
Which may mean, hedge funds are going to continue to go bankrupt.
Pension / insurance companies are simply NOT going to sell, until their cash needs are tighter than a virgin on her wedding night. Not going to buy either.
There may be an end to the selling, but I don't necessarily see fuel for an up turn.
Caution: I have been wrong before.
rr
Might want to stay away from the outsides of tall buildings too, right about now ...
rr
In a world short of capital, where solvency is an issue, 7% up seems less likely to me.
Reversing Tuesday would be cool, though.
rr
Aj,
6834/6356 is a 7% plus move.
Ordinarily, I'd think it was a typo, but not in these time of times.
Really?
rr
This chart bothers me ...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX:$VXV&p=D&st=2007-11-03&id=p37864681343&a=140543234
It's currently in uncharted (() territory, and they're bad lands. I do not believe the current unpleasantness is over, nor do I have huge faith in a big, playable bounce here.
Yours in worrying,
rr
Initq,
Well, yes and no. All the BP's are vectors of bull signals, with both magnitude and direction measures.
Generally, risk increases significantly at low (30) and getting lower, as at high (70) and getting higher. 'Risk' here is a trend change, I'd argue. Between those 30/70 values, direction is more 'trendy'.
Dorsey uses the football analogy of offense and defense.
So, I'd agree that the risk of a trend change to "higher prices" is increasing now. But, just because the "danger" exists of a trend change, it hasn't arguably happened yet.
I get paid by the trend. I need to make decisions on the trend change.
Tough world.
You do good work. Good luck to you with your trades.
rr
Hello Rich!
Yesterday's BPNYSE on the DorseyWright site was the lowest since 1994 (7.67). Anyone have a reference to older history?
Looking at a historical chart of the BPNYSE in Dorsey Wright's book, the Oct 1987 bottom had a PnF reading of 6, which is the lowest reading going back to 1974. According to StockCharts, today's reading is 6.36, tieing the all time low.
DWA, 5.48
Bullish Pct For NYSE Bull Percent (BPNYSE)
Updated Through- 10/08/2008 (5.48 Down 2.19)
Only a few more points to zero. Good luck to us all.
rr
I'm sure you can find something scary in here ...
http://www.rgemonitor.com/
rr
The Dow futures were off about 300 points at 3-4 am et today. Huge swing ...
rr
Start the day with some questions ...
SnP futures now up about 26. Is there any history of stop running in futures?
There are 4 nasty red sticks on the RUT daily chart. Is there any common pattern there? Black crows are supposed to overlap.
Yesterday's BPNYSE on the DorseyWright site was the lowest since 1994 (7.67). Anyone have a reference to older history?
There's a good sized gap in the $SPX at 1100-1080. To get an island reversal, does the gap on the 'far side' have to be or any particular size, or just there?
Futures back to 18-ish in the time it took to type this ...
TIA,
rr
I think tomorrow I capitulate however I can.
Think if I just phone it in now it'll bounce?
rr
Hit the bottom of the gap on the $SPX 1 minute chart and bounced down. RSI (14) looks like it's drilling for oil ...
Well, OK.
It DOES take a lot of choco chips to run all those thought threads, doesn't it?
TGIF,
rr
Now children, either be senatorial or be soccer mom's.
Keep in mind the senatorial one's got us into this mess. Maybe it's soccer mom's turn?
Is that Raines guy a soccer dad?
TGIFF,
rr
AJ,
Knee Capping has never been subtle.
Same tactic, different gun.
rr
LG:
Texas - you're lucky.
My Senators are Chucky and HildeBeast. What can I tell them they've not already heard ...
rr
I don't disagree with you.
You're not going to get what you want.
We are mice among dancing elephants. We do get the Government we collectively deserve. God bless us all.
rr