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Ok, but how 'good' a reason 'could' it be??
Agree, I grabbed some shares at .111 earlier in the week as a 'momentum' trade.
Intrigued that they pulled the r/split and apparently believe they can get to the $ share price to
meet the listing requirement.
Wondering what they 'see' in terms of POTENTIAL sales/revenues. Especially since even if the PH 3 is 'good', they are still looking at maybe 9 months at the least
for the fda to 'act'.. and that pushes any new sales past August..
one thing that can be said is, while it looks like it has 'bottomed' out.. can it give the market a reason to want shares again..
Time for a 'pause'?? Be happy if it could hold over $6+ while its Moving Average line which got 'lost' catches up..
Gets too far apart and its interesting to see how the share price and MA line seem to want to get back together. And unfortunately, it usually involves the share price being dragged lower..
Disclaimer: finally getting the move we have been looking for. 1st target price: $14 (hemo sector), 2nd target price: $25 (IF they can get the oncology sector)
Whats a CONSERVATIVE market cap??
231 Mil shares outstanding, current market cap $29 Million...
gets to 50 cents: 5x: $150 Million - is this 'justifiable' IF this product passes the PH 3?
a $?? 10x?? $230 Million?? is this 'justifiable'
Note: not saying these aren't possible as folks are more than willing to overpay to 'get some'.. but...
Anyone have any idea on the potential revenue expectations??
Disclaimer: own some just for the phase 3 trial update, be happy to see it hit 20-25 cents. And acknowledge its possible for the market to run it up to say 50 cents IF the news is positive as the market is looking for anything that can be called 'undervalued'.. But beyond that?? A full $ to get away from the de-listing??
Back in with the first buy in a long time... Still have a target price of $25.. Ticked that CRMD has taken so long to get going cause it made me miss one heck of a buying opp on ATNM sub $5...
Now to start selling covered calls and see if I can keep the shares..
Good luck..
Its all about MARKET CAP vs potential revenues.
Some of us who have been in this for a long time had a market cap of around $600 Million based on 'conservative' guesses for sales/pricing.
Gave me a target price of around $25-30 or so BEFORE the 1-5 r/split, with only 25 Mil or so shares outstanding post the 1-5. But now thanks to the dilution to raise cash, a share count of around 58 Million? Now my target price is down to around $14..
So while a 1-5 r/split has occurred, dilution that doubled the number of outstanding shares took place, the MARKET CAP that we 'guessed' at way back around 2016-2017 hasn't changed, won't change until the company/anal-ysts shed some more light on how things are going, and the anal-ysts update their revenue/profits and market cap 'expectations'..
So yeah, it has room to 'run' to the target price, thanks to the 2 frigging CRLS, the damage done has been to the target price expectations thanks to the dilution..
Good luck..
Been quite a while since I last owned shares (back in the 2017/18 timeframe). Been monitoring the developments from a big picture standpoint.
So after seeing the excitement over the Bascom PI activity, wondering if you have seen anyone project a 'timeline' on where things are vs when they might get to the end of a viable PH 3 for 'anything'..
Again, I am just ramping up my research into their status on their trials, et al.
Own no shares, but thinking committing $5000 at 20 cents or less would be a good idea.
Thanks
disclaimer: biggest position is in CRMD which is around $4, has recently been approved by the FDA and has a 'conservative' target price of $14. Sales are expected to commence before 1 July. Not a sexy development that attracts the market, but a NEEDED development. With a potential target price once they get approved for an even bigger sector of the market they could serve of around $25+ some... Yep, the potential for a very nice return, worth checking out..
current target price is $27 based on the one product they are going to apply for approval of.
To see $100, all of those other ones in development/trials are going to have to 'show' something during their PH 2s..
Disclaimer: nice frigging move off the $4/sh lows... Been wondering WHAT someone knows and I suspect its got to do with
the pending NDA submission which is expected to take place sometime before the 3rd qtr..
Don't own any because I am still fully committed to another one about to commence its sales post its FDA approval...
And its something that should have happened at least 2 years earlier but thats been delayed and ruined my plans of rotating some
out of that one into ATNM..
agree with you... What was the purpose for the question when it would be very easy to look thru their PR to see if one had been
issued.
But again, ya can't get one till an NDA review has commenced as far as I am aware of.
But on a side note, nice move developing in the share price and have to wonder if its in anticipation of the NDA submission pending..
disclaimer: hadn't bought any back yet because of a delay in things moving forward in CRMD (has been approved, expected to commence sales in April, but the market has not run it up as expected in anticipation of this occurring as it would normally be expected to happen: share price $3.33, 1st target price is $14-15 and I own shares. So yeah, its slow move has cost me a chance to flip some of those shares for ATNM which I had fully intended to do.. Dang nab it all)
So did investors get a 'gift'?
Just heard about CKPT after the CRL came out. First comment is, resolution of the CRL could take longer than folks expect, just went thru it with CRMD and they got 2 CRLS due to the manufacturers QA issues (4 frigging years for the fda to agree to the 'fixes' and all the while the manufacturers were ALLOWED to continue operations under the fda umbrella, someone explain that one)
Anyways, so looking into CKPT, like the low share count, don't like the low cash on hand cause can only read it to mean, thanks to the delay, they will likely need to conduct a cash raising operation (ATM or flat out secondary). CRMD had to do this and it really cut their target price down.
So, just thought I would check in, see what folks are saying, and quite frankly, a bit surprised given its a cancer related treatment, given how the market is pricing so many bios as if they are selling gold, that CKPT was where it was on the share price..
But going to be studying their trial analysis, how good they see it working. And really tired of the fda holding up drug approvals for drugs that CAN/WOULD help save lives vs delaying the approval especially if it worked. Now I wouldn't be as 'upset' at the fda if as in this case, they tell the manufacturer, since you are bad enough for us not to approve a potential life saving drug, your operations are totally suspended.
Otherwise, to me, the fda has its priorities screwed up.. when it allows operations to continue.. but puts a life saving drug into limbo land.. again, CRMD has something going for it, hell of a lot better than the current standard of care, but was delayed 4 frigging years over QA issues.
Good luck
Kind of nice to see it pulling back from its highs. At this stage, hopefully folks took the gains it gave with a disclaimer that I did sell out way too soon as I didn't see the run getting as crazy as it did.
But that said, liking the pullback. Chart is suggesting more downside is 'possible'. Given that they won't complete the study until in 2024? IF this market continues to 'sour', expecting it to get 'cheaper'..
Disclaimer: like it, but own none at the moment. Just checking into see if anyone had anything to say..
a lot of 'baby' bios are getting hacked up. CRMD for example just rec'd FDA approval of a compound that WILL become the standard of care because of its effectiveness. And despite the news, since the 'launch' isn't till (later?) in the 1st qtr 2024, its gone 'no where' on the news.
ATNM has gotten clocked, but what the heck, given a target price of $20+ (if they would stop selling frigging shares), its a 'gift' at these prices. But like CRMD, its going to have to EXECUTE (get approved and get sales going).
Got 1 other that has very good potential, but again, folks just don't seem to be interested in something that isn't 'doing'
I was just browsing thru their website, going over their Nov presentation. Was looking for an update on the BLA filing, see someone posted its now into the 1H 2024. Was going to start accumulating, but a look at the chart is indicating $4 may not hold now. So going to continue to be patient. Cause I suspect given the early stages for the rest of their effort (and years to an endpoint), the only thing that might turn this around would be news of the filing. And with that pushed back? LIke CRMD, the market is not being kind to baby bios. Course the other thing is, when the market turns from 'no price is too high' to lets get 'real''? Whats a 'fair value' takes on a whole different perspective. (example: Sava back when it was completing a PH 2 hit over $120/sh look at where its at now..and I would argue its still overvalued given what they have PROVEN)
Disclaimer: still being patient to buy back in.. And getting it down here just increases the potential reward if they can get approved)
But the opportunity to be taken advantage of.
Had another one CRMD get I suspect 'shorted' down heavily in the run up to its pending decision date (Nov 15th. Now at $3.3-3.4 range, target is still $14-15)..
Been watching ATNM and kind of wondering if it would get a similar share price hit.
And as far as I know, its still on track for an NDA submission before the end of the year?? So going to take advantage of this and start accumulating a position. And see it still has a target price of $27 making this price level or less, one heck of a buy given that their development 'appears/sounds' successful/approvable.
Disclaimer: own none at the moment, but going to after this takedown.
I am starting to wonder if the 'length' of time to get something approved is relational to whether its a 'baby bio' vs one of the big pharma - fda 'revolving' door companies up for approval.
And yeah, the covid scam/hoax demonstrated how things 'really' work when 'something' is 'desired' didn't it.
agree. Just that I am 'all in' on CRMD and its pending Nov 15th date with the FDA.. Looking for $12 to $15 on that one for starters. Damn delays in its approval have cost me 'opportunities' on another one as I have had to 'wait'... far longer than expected over 2 years ago.. And now a bargain on ATNM
Be nice to roll some of that one into some shares sub $8 on this one..
Been a while, but have been monitoring the share price trend. Also tracking the FLOAT, hope they can keep it sub 30 Mil shares (26 Mil) so that the darn 'target price' doesn't get hit like it has for one I am heavily in at the moment (delays in their approval timeline has forced ATM dilution).
And know this won't be a likeable comment, but if it can hold sub $8 into the end of the year?? With a target price of around $25-30?? Be a happy buyer for the run into their approval decision (question is, are they still on track for an NDA submission late this year??)
disclaimer: currently own none, but am bullish especially as the price has slid lower
Had bought a few thousand shares @ $1.35 and lower range.. Sold them on this pop at around $1.90. Long ways to the 1st qtr 2024 when this trial ends..
Hopefully the share price retries the $1.50 or below level.. Would like to buy another round..
Street target price: Avg based on yahoos finance page is $31/sh...
Something to track although they say they have a lot of cash on hand (they should they doubled up the damn share count to 25 Million) is the 'share count' which as of the end of the 1st qtr 2023 is around 25 Million..
So from a timeline standpoint, end of this year for an NDA submission.. add 9 months to that..
If I had shares right now, I would be selling the covered calls for what I could get, at the $10 level. Just don't see a reason coming in the near future to jeopardize $10/sh..
disclaimer: still don't have any, loaded with CRMD which just got their timeline clarified, sitting at $5/sh, target price $15 on 41 Million shares outstanding. And if they get the additional sector (oncology) we know they will be asking approval for, well that puts the target price north around $25+.. Just going to take till the end of the year for an FDA decision from the looks of it.
Been watching the share price and have to say, its gotten 'attractive' again at sub $10/sh..
See that they intend to file their NDA later this year, so given the time after that for a decision (around 9 months after the NDA is accepted),
Guess I will be looking to take another 'round' with this one..
and agree, unless the fed death agency screws around with them, the data indicates is should be approvable.
disclaimer: own none, but will be looking to accumulate.. Good luck.. at least there is a timeline now..
ATNM PR makes me think I missed something. For in the PR, they discuss their 'financial/expansion' activity in the EU..
and say the market share there MIGHT be bigger than what they have in the US.
IF this is accurate, my target price looks like its going to be 'way' low cause I didn't 'see' this coming.
And I hadn't heard anything about the EU mentioned before in terms of a revenue stream.
Be interesting to see what the analysts do with this info, what target price they start to 'update to' now.
Disclaimer: I own none, but one of my kids held onto their shares and is enjoying the run (we were selling calls for some time, so the cost basis is sub $10/sh)
nice run in progress. My son kept his shares so he is now up some on them.
Still have a $20/sh target price due to the higher share count. Hopefully for those holding,
when they start to talk about marketing, they get better numbers in terms of reimbursement rates.
Good luck to those holding. Note, I am still following their other programs in progress, but they have
a ways to go..
Note, son will likely take what it gives and move the gains into shares of CRMD if that still hasn't gotten
the clearance from the fda to move towards its own approval.
Again, good luck
On this one, I don't trust the change in a biomarker to be a hard confirmation that it really is having a positive affect.
Why I didn't like that they tried to say, hey we can prove we can change a biomarker, therefore, we can claim it IS helping folks. (before they discarded that effort way back when)
so what have you seen in terms of data to support your statements on sava?
For my understanding of the PH 2 was that what was reported in terms of 'response' was NOT part of the official data gathering the PH 2 collected. But instead was reportedly 'observations'.
Thats the part I challenged folks over. Did the PH 2 actually 'measure/intentionally' collect this data in a manner that was trustworthy/planned/intentional or just 'anecdotal'.
Thanks.
Has cassava actually confirmed their drug WORKS to help folks?
Just asking cause I have followed it for quite a while and am not convinced by anything they have said to date. And in challenges I have put up to the 'believers' on another site, I get 'crickets' in terms of the 'proof' they believe in.
And I have traded cassava a few times, but after they flipped that PH 2 data from 'this is not good' to 'good' without a good explanation? I have been overly cautious to believe they have confirmed anything until the PH 3 results are out.
and even on this one, I was cautious and didn't own shares up until the last minute before the Ph 3 results were talked about. And I still don't own a lot of shares just cause its ALZ related and am not clear on what they said.
You again miss the point. I just checked 10 random companies and they all provide links to their SEC reports. This includes a tiny biotech with only 3 employees. Why is AVXL different? Perhaps incompetence in their IR department?
If YOU are capable, all you have to do is go to EDGAR for their SEC reports. This is perfectly ACCEPTABLE, although possibly a 'challenge' for some to do.
https://www.anavex.com/sharedata
Just thought I would drop this info on the board for those that may not have seen it.
Got a letter related to ATNM asking me to make sure I vote for the requested uptick in the number of shares
they want to make available for what appears to be 'compensation' packages. From 5 Mil to somewhere in the 8 Million range.
Thats an additional 3 Million shares on top of the more than doubling of the share count outstanding since they did the r/split down to
11 Million.
What a frigging disappointment... But as a side note, while I have unloaded my shares for another 'opportunity' (CRMD), I do intend to follow
ATNMs additional AWE related efforts cause those could be real share price boosters IF they are successful. But will be waiting for the PH 2 results before I consider buying any shares.
Good luck.
Anavex is in trouble and shareholders are being hurt because our incompetent CEO keeps f’ing up and his BOD does nothing to protect shareholder value (which is their fiduciary responsibility).
A whole bunch of folks need to relax and let the CEO/company and board DO THEIR JOB, which is to get their development to market.
IF the development is successful/works, your 'share price concerns' will be taken care of.
If it works, investors who took a 'chance' could end up being rewarded. Frankly, in my books, the CEO and BODs real job is to protect the best interests of the company FIRST. We are out here for the record, trying to take advantage of their WORK and EFFORT aren't we. So maybe we should let them do their job instead of whining 'woah is me'.
Nidan7500,
agrree with all you said. its a WIP, and its not going to be an easy road to travel despite how much has been tried and learned so far.
Good luck.
Good message.
Only thing to be a bit more patient for is the data scrub to be complete. Its going to speak for itself once it does.
With the relevant questions being, will it confirm it works, and if it does, how well.
disclaimer: managements comments so far appears to be saying, we 'like what we see'. Given that they are a lot 'closer' to whats going on than I suspect any of us on this board??
Honestly .. the longs here are like having the French defend your flank
Love this comment. Yeah, been saying on another site to those whining and bitching about the share price: either 'trust' management who you apparently did to get them thru the PH 3 or get the hell out cause of what you 'fear'. Cause the only thing thats changed is the PH 3 has completed and the next phase has commenced
Find it amusing to see folks let GREED, FOMO override their 'concerns/fears' that they then bitch about, especially those that comment as if they are sitting in on managements meetings, and observing the decisions being made.
Anything is possible, but my 1st target price range is $3 - 4, maybe $5.
Reasons:
1. established competition, going to have to demo they are 'worth' being the one 'desired'
2. non-US based company. Will the market embrace them, give them a favorable share price
And of course, is WHEN is it 'possible' and that won't be until the end of the Ph 3 monitoring period is complete in my estimation. Which of course is into early 2024
But in the act of disclosure, just starting to accumulate shares figuring a 2-3x return from this price range would be pretty darn good.
Damn.. in MY message that I am replying to, I made reference to a company in a PH 3 that is nearing the completion of enrollment. I said NGENF, but what it should have been was NSPR.
I did buy 'some' at $1.14 after I posted that prior one, plan to keep slowly building a position in it, but it has a ways to go before the PH 3 is completed. Thanks to a 1 year 'monitoring' period post enrollment in the trial. Not too thrilled to see the share price moving up, but why I started nibbling was I expect the PH 3 to go as well as the PH 2 did (not a 'complex' development in terms of whether it will 'work' or 'not', cause the PH 3 is essentially an extension of the PH 2)
On a follow up, AVXL did release data from their Ph 2/3 EARLY stage ALZ trial. While the data 'sounds' positive, and the market 'somewhat' liked it (nice pop in the share price), they do need to clarify what they said in terms the market can 'understand' without questioning. And they did surprise late Friday with a release saying they will hold another CC on Monday pre market. So that could get interesting.
(disclaimer: only own 500 shares of AVXL at a cost basis of $8.75/sh) (intention was once the market absorbed the end of the PH 2/3 trial news, planning to keep selling covered calls once the share price settles down. And buy calls for the decision day once the NDA was accepted for review) IF I like the odds of approval. Tho have no idea how to 'put' a value on the shares till they do with what they say.
So reason for posting this was because of the clarification on NSPR and the follow up on AVXL. And note, thought I had all of my ATNM shares taken away at $7.5, but do have 2000 in an account that I had sold $12.5s (Jan expiration) against instead of the Nov $7.5s Will make a decision on whether to hold them come Jan vs keep selling covered calls in a 'take what it gives' mode. But at present, not buying any new ones.
I had sold the $12 covered calls just about 2 weeks ago for $3/sh. So up until just before the close, thought they were going to expire in my favor. Till that late surge into the close commenced. And while I saw the PR as 'positive', voiced the opinion that they could use a little PR to 'clarify' what they said in terms the market could evaluate without a lot of guessing on our part.
Ended up paying 15 cents/sh between 3:59 & 4 PM to close the darn things out cause I have had shares in past trades taken away from me when the share price closed with in a few cents BELOW the strike price. And I wasn't about to let that happen, nor let that happen for just a few cents 'over' $12.
But heck $2.85 sh in gains for less than 2 weeks was still pretty darn nice.. and note, I was trying limit orders of 5 and 10 cents before forced to pay 15 cents as they were expiring at the strike price. To cap it off tho, sure wasn't expecting a 'needed' clarification this soon, so Monday could be 'interesting'.
But I’m not looking at today as some sort of major event. It’s good to have data but the event I’m looking forward to is the fda decision. All I need to get out of today is data that’s good enough to get in front of the FDA for review.
Fully agree... will they have something 'good enough' in terms of actually helping people, to justify submitting an NDA...
disclaimer: own 'some' shares, intend to close out covered calls I sold (for this week) for gains today. And see what happens.
Challenges
What I THINK I know:
-1st qtr 2023, expected to complete enrollment
-1st qtr 2024 timeframe: end of the 12 month follow up monitoring
-2nd qtr 2024 (maybe??): PH 3 trial results
-9 months or so later: up for an FDA decision, so likely at the earliest, end of 2024 for the approval decision (??) 2+ YEARS from now
-still working to expand sales in overseas markets, but realistically, needs the US market approval
That said, then there is the bigger challenge to come and that is, breaking in/capturing market share from some established big market players who
i doubt will easily see their revenue stream 'interrupted' by an upstart. So the question will end up being one of, is this that much better than whats on the market NOW. Will it be that much better that a shift will occur simply because of the advantages/benefits of the design or will the market say, what we have is 'good enough' and the design is a tough sell, slow to gain market share if any.
As a disclaimer: I finally bought a few thousand shares at $1.14. And I plan to add more simply for the PR events to come (ie, completed enrollment, any planned data releases, NDA filing, et al cause they do get the markets attention. So while I expect there to be opportunities to see gains develop from this price level, I am not sold that this WILL get a good toe hold in the US market at this point in time. But given the low share count, I do see a move to $4-5/sh from this price level as achievable. Which is why I wanted 'some shares' before I get surprised by a jump for something I didn't see coming.
OK, gave up my shares to the covered calls.
And now due to the increase in outstanding shares? As mentioned, no longer as 'enamored' with ATNM as I was in terms of a re-entry price. So, rolled the proceeds into more CRMD shares (target price currently at $20 (mine), $25 by some analysts) this morn at $3.95.
Also took a flier on some AVXL shares at $11.58, and then sold the Dec 2 $12 covered calls for $3/sh. They have an 'event' on the 30th of Nov, to present some data, also rumor has it that on 1 Dec, there could be an update on their PH 3 trial which is nearing completion (a roll of the dice cause their PH 2 did not give me enough to say it 'can' help Alzheimer patients with 'confidence' enough to throw a lot of money into it. So went this route and will likely lose the shares or, if the price holds, as the time premium drops, may close them out and sell another round. Will see.
But one last comment, check out NGENF. They are in a PH 3, only 8.3 Mil shares outstanding, but an Israeli company. They are supposed to complete enrolling their last trial participant by the end of the 1st qtr 2023. Then a year follow up. I don't own any at the moment, but plan to start accumulating after they announce the last enrollment occurred. Target price conservatively, $4-5, suspect higher, but start low and see how the numbers shake out later. So a buy at less than $1.50 could be a decent return.
Good luck. and damn them for doubling up the share count and its impact on the potential return.
It will see the target price IF its approved and sales commence. Thats when the market will start to price in its potential. Can't expect it to happen now in this market environment, especially when its a non-exciting development with limited 'revenue' potential. (ie, its not an alzheimer or cancer drug for example)..
So between now and say the next 3 months, sell covered calls, get what you can for them to reduce your cost basis while you wait.
In the meantime, check out CRMD. Its a gift at $3, target price on it ranges from $20-25 on initial approval. IF they didn't run into quality issues at the manufacturers they chose to use to produce the compound, they would be $20 already, but it delayed their approval. And on top of it, this target price is based on less than 1/2 of its potential market. I know the company is already working on how to get approved for its potential total market, and the target price for that is north of $35-40/sh..
as a disclaimer: I am loaded up on CRMD shares, and just added some down here at $3 the other day. But they are looking at up to another 6-8 months for another go at the fed DEATH agency for consideration (death agency after how they 'approved' the use of the pfizer jab solution that has been hurting and killing folks, and yet the fdeath agency won't pull it from being used)
Got to acknowledge, its NOT the company's fault that there is a process for getting approved that includes time to generate the NDA and then the FDA review (6-9 months).
So I wouldn't be bashing the company at all for whats happening to the share price cause until its approved, the drug is NOT worth anything.
And its the reason why I mentioned I doubted this would see much higher before it pulls back, why some profit taking (especially if you have an account that doesn't tax you for your trades/gains now (gets you when you start withdrawing from them instead). Or consider selling covered calls to get 'something' when it peaked.
Now for me, I am not surprised to see it pullback, especially in a weak market like this. But at the same time, not surprised it ran as strongly as it did in a weak market desperate for something to buy (momentum traders). So now we will see where it bottoms out at, and I won't be surprised to see it sub $10. Just the way the market works. But imagine if you were one of the ones 'chasing and buying' when it ran up, especially the one(s) that paid up around the peak price.
Got an email from ATNM this morn talking about the results of a PH 1 trial. Promising, but lets see, since its associated with dealing with cancer, that means they are looking at, at least 4 years to get to the end of a PH 3 trial??
With nothing else in the so called 'pipeline' beyond a PH 2? The market cap is likely to be limited to what this current development is 'worth'.
So waiting to see what they say with respect to the possible 'price/dose', anticipated annual 'doses' sold, et al.
Yet in the meantime, see the market is starting to trim off some of the 'fun' from the momentum chasers. ATNM held $11-12/sh shortly after they did that 1-30 R/split. Will it try to hold there again?? Or??
To be determined. And this is the tough part of being in a baby bio with its first development finishing a PH 3. Do ya dare to sell when it peaks on PR like this one is hinting might be happening? Hope to buy it 'cheaper' and get the same # of shares back after paying taxes on the gains just taken? Or do you hold and see what happens knowing that the odds favor getting out 'higher'..
Good luck.. disclaimer: been thru this decision before. its a damned if you did, damned if you didn't cause you never know till history has been 'written'..
doubt someone will buy them out for the current development.
Now if they start to see 'success' with their other product lines, I could see a buy out happening, but they are still years away from getting that kind of 'confirmation' that the developments 'really' do work.
My plan was to hold onto some shares, take gains on the rest, and only hold them IF i could get decent covered call 'returns' on a frequent basis. Otherwise, sell them all and try something else while I waited and watched.