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But there has been virtual silence for the last 6+ months. Why would that indicate a deal is about to be done now?
Agreed, I don't think the options expiration will matter for anything. In the money options are executed at expiration, so they would need to have the shares before that, or sell the option before expiration. If the options holder already owns the shares, there is no reason to hold down the price, it's a wash.
I could only find orphan and fast track with the FDA, do we have the same with EMA?
No, I think it crashed back down as soon as everyone realized the end was still in sight, no consistent revenue before the money runs out. One possible exception here is that we don't know the details of several agreements, and it's possible there is enough money coming in to stay in business longer, but apparently the market does not believe it will make the difference. The market could certainly be wrong.
A couple of weeks ago didn't you say the MMs would always make options available for a big trade based on black-scholes, etc.? Why wouldn't they make this trade available when there is practically no risk for the market maker to close out the position for the holder? In any case, if they already bought the stock, and they only hold the stock and a corresponding number of put options, they have no risk now. So again, this thinking that the expiration date matters makes no sense. If these were out of the money puts, it would be a whole different story.
If they can continue to manipulate it, then they should buy more, further out in time put options, keep doing the manipulation, and not worry about the upcoming expiration date. Any way you slice it the expiration date should not matter, it would only matter if they think there is some event that prevents the manipulation between this expiration date (1/19) and the next expiration date. In any case, I'm not a big believer in the manipulation, not saying there isn't some of it, but I still believe the real explanation for the long decline is the looming running out of funds, which has yet to be addressed.
But there is no need to pin the price at this level for the options, either sell the options which is likely quite possible, or buy the stock and exercise. I suppose there is risk they push the price up in buying the stock, but that doesn't seem like a big risk these days. I don't think there is anything special about the options expiration date, nor will there be any change in the price action based on it.
Another big milestone is first patient dosing of NEO in 1H 2018. I'm hoping it happens by April.
I don't think they should extend the expiration date, the warrants had that known risk, it's not really in the interest of shareholders.
I don't have any warrants, but the action of the last two days is definitely making me restless. All the gains from last week are gone.
That's what I said, you only hold the option if you believe the stock is going down (or you believe you can push it down in this case). That's the bottom line, there is no reason to hold the option unless you think the stock is going down, just like being short. Just like we hold our long position because we believe it will go up eventually, a put option holder must believe the underlying stock will go down more before expiration in order to continue holding it.
Maybe, although that's usually not a problem for options this far in the money. In any case, you could simply buy the shares and exercise the put option against those shares. You will need the shares anyway if you are waiting to exercise at expiration.
The put holders would only continue to hold them if they believe they can push the stock down further between now and Jan. 19th. Otherwise, if they thought it was going to go up and out of their control, or even be flat, they would simply sell and close the position now.
Looks like we are stuck back in the 3.20-3.25 resistance.
I'm at least a little bit concerned that Advaxis has not made more of the new FDA rules, it appears like they are tailor made for AXAL. I would have thought they might even have a press release that they are going for accelerated approval based on those rules, etc.. Even if they have a resource problem, at least show that they are looking at it.
But don't you think they would have a good chance of accelerated approval of AXAL based on the phase I/II results and the new FDA rules, where this can be done in parallel with additional clinical testing?
I'm just happy that $15-25 is not wishful thinking.
Never going to move higher as each week passes until the financial problems are addressed. Otherwise every day is just one day closer to running out of money. If that suddenly becomes less likely, it could all change.
Certainly not convinced things are going to turn on a dime next year, but hopeful that sometime soon they can really address the money problem and then it might happen.
I'll add one more glass half full idea. I think it's possible there may be a deal for AXAL/DUAL in the EU and/or USA ready to go, but the partner may have required that the EMA filing be completed before any deal is finalized, or effectively it became required in order for Advaxis to get the terms they wanted. Along these lines, we may get one announcement that there is an EMA filing and a partner.
I still think the only thing that stops this from going down, whether it's manipulation or other selling, etc. that's causing it to go down, is a clear and likely path to viability - right now it's just not there. This is why every day the company is worth less, and long term the stock is going down. Until there is enough money in the bank to get to the point where there is enough income to sustain operations, we still have a problem. Personally I believe they need something like $60M+ (or about another year of time) to even come close to make that likely.
This is just brutal, getting difficult to have any faith that things are going to get a lot better next year.
I was thinking about posting something very similar, I agree. The change in the CEO status without any rhyme or reason is very disconcerting.
Maybe I'm missing something here, why would anyone exercise the warrants and buy for $5 per share if they can buy it for less on the open market?
I don't think that's going to be anywhere near enough, if that were the case the market would not respond so negatively to any indication that they are running out of runway. And the warrants won't help at all unless the stock price gets over $5.
Dew, given all the positive news and preliminary results surrounding neoantigen vaccines, why is there not much excitement about the Advaxis implementation? Is there some perceived disadvantage of their approach, or is the only disadvantage that they have not yet started a phase I trial? Are the companies mentioned in this article further ahead in that sense?
I think you are overvaluing EMA submission. It's pretty clear the only thing the market cares about right now is how long a runway they have, admittedly probably relative to when AXAL might get approved. The submission only makes the possible approval not systematically push out, in other words it's a non-negative, not a guaranteed positive, relative to what the market already knows. On the other hand, a deal with up front cash at least comes close to a guaranteed change in that equation. It is possible that the EMA filing will make such a deal more probable, so in that sense there could be some value. But if EMA submission is a forgone conclusion, is should not be a deal blocker right now.
Steve, I think the HER2 problem is a little bit more complex. It may be to the point where it's clearly not worth it for ADXS to attempt to bring it to market now given their financial situation. But conversely, the payoff may not be large enough for any other company given what they would have to sink into it (ROI). As hovacre has said before, there is a lot more competition for HER2, and that may further aggravate the risk/reward calculation, even if it turns out to be a viable product on its own.
I think the situation could be this: ADXS knows that AXAL/DUAL is their only chance for revenue in any time frame that will help them stay afloat. They are not getting offers for a partnership that work for them, so they are playing chicken with any interested parties, more or less hoping they get approval earlier than expected and can then get better terms.
Along these lines, I'm very disappointed there was no talk in the call or the press release about any work to get accelerated approval for AXAL with the FDA.
Gantor, likewise appreciate all of your posts. I think ADXS started going down consistently the minute it became clear that it's more or less a one trick pony (for the moment, in terms of something that can be productized soon) trying to beat the clock of running out of money. The AMGN deal was just a blip on the radar that pushed out the end date, but probably did not push it out far enough to gain much confidence, so down it went again. With better management and BOD that could have been a much different equation, but here we are still trying to make it to the point of bringing a product to market.
I agree that in the end this is not a huge move on the stock, but it sure did a good job of squashing something that had some potential.
Exactly, that's the finish line that is in much clearer focus right now.
I don't agree with this assessment. AXAL and DUAL have a very good chance of getting approved and having reasonable sales, but the big risk right now is getting to that point, and that's what the market doesn't like. Until the likelihood of getting a product to market improves, even ones with good chances of approval like AXAL and DUAL, this stock is stuck in a downward spiral. The problem is that they are cutting it way to close with AXAL/DUAL, if they could get to the point of nearly guaranteeing to be able to operate through that approval, things would change in a big way.
The bad news is that we are 3 months closer to running out of cash, and practically nothing (the lower burn rate was kind of automatic if you believe the one time costs) has been done to push that date further out. That's pretty bad news, and to fbg's point the longer we go without solving it, I also have less confidence there is going to be a solution.
Steve, unfortunately you are dead on. Wish I had done the same yesterday, it was so obvious. Part of me wishes these events had happened in the opposite order (AT-014/earnings), it might have seemed a lot less painful. There could be some merit to the idea that they moved up the earnings release to get the bad news out of the way, or they were just ready and wanted to get it over with. I hope there is some solid good news coming soon, because it has been hard to come by for a while.
It's even more fundamental than that, the PR yesterday had pretty much nothing, that was enough to kick things off.
Exactly, status quo is no good here. If this were a company with revenue, making money quarter after quarter, then it might be OK. But when you are about to run out of money, then operational status quo is not very good.
But it's down 13% plus now, I think we are confusing the cause and effect here. It slows down because it gets near 10%, and the market makers know that will slow things down, so it's slow down a little bit before that. Now the selling just blasted right through that. This is real selling based on what came out in the press release and the conference call, and it probably looks even worse because of the bounce from AT-014 yesterday, which is now kind of meaningless.
Pretty much nothing new or interesting in this conference call, not really even many (or interesting) questions from analysts.
Was the positive news a slower burn rate? If that's the best they can do we have problems. The business update was more of a review of what has happened over the last year, basically nothing about what might happen in the future or any real positive news about the development process. It's just reality that no news is bad news right now.
Lower than yesterday's low in about 10 minutes.
This press release was really light on a business update, not really anything interesting. Hope there is more coming tomorrow.