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CAMT:
Just a thought... any reason the escalating West Bank fighting could disrupt CAMT's operations (or other business in the area, for that matter)... any historical examples?
I've looked into it a little and see that CAMT's top management are in Israel, but a lot of operations are performed in Europe and America...
Please feel free to correct any misperceptions noted above.
SSKILLZ1: You mentioned in this reply "...and then I get hit with a statistical outlier." In previous posts you've said something to the effect of "99 out of 100 times, a stock with an RSI of 95 will come down at least 10%." (Please be advised that I'm not going to look back and see exactly what you said... but it was something to that effect.)
So my question is... what's the evidence tell us? What's the definition of a "statistical outlier" relative to the RSI? I mean, if we're using a p value of .05, then at some defined RSI value, 2.5% of the stocks will go against the average and go higher (the other 2.5% will go lower than average; "average" defined here as 95%)... So the statistical outliers will be the sum total of those two ends of the bell curve - 5%... (and I could be wrong here in the use of these stats... Jack and Coke is hangin' out tonight...)
Has anyone done an actual study on this topic? How likely is it, based on someone's published work, that for example, a stock with an RSI over 90 WILL come down, say 10%, before it goes higher?
Seriously I'm not questioning you or trying to downplay you... just hoping that there might be something out there more convincing than your own anectodotal experience (which don't get me wrong is valid!)... and in my estimation, if anyone would know of some published evidence on the subject, it would be you... Thank you... this board has made me use the training for my field in a whole new way...
SVL: SSK I love sales like this... am buying more tomorrow... limit price $3.35 - where it closed today...
Housing Stocks...
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=
%7BCB635E4E%2D6585%2D47EC%2DB4BC%2DBFFC45FC5EB2%7D&source=blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo
http://www.forbes.com/2006/07/10/kbh-real-estate-cx_gl_0710autofacescan07.html?partner=yahootix
Wow those are long links but I couldn't figure out how to get them more brevitous. I hope "brevitous" is a word...
Anyway they're regarding KB Homes and Dominion Homes recent reports.
MSGI... I hear what you're saying but the more I read about CAMH the more I like the story... the science, the support by the FDA, the insurance companies signing on one by one (including Medicare), the potential market, the proprietary technology, the management... I liked it for PSL3 a month ago at 1.70 and continue to like it now at 2.35... but I'm bound by that little thing called "earnings" in both doubling-down here and bringing it up over at VMC! Ho Hum!
But of course I could be wrong and the whole thing could blow up in my face - I am after all a rookie.
And MSGI... I looked for your picks on PSL3 but do not see you. What gives?
Get me the hell out of VPHM...
And double down on SVL (I'd double up on CAMH.ob but rule #3 prevents it, no? In other words, if I'm allowed to double down on my wildcard, please do that instead of the SVL. Thank you.)
CHID.ob:
Dissapointing. And they have the balls to project 2007 EPS of .16 without the one acquisition... 2006 EPS was supposed to be .13 with both "successfully completed"! Doesn't make sense - I mean wasn't 2005's FY EPS something like .05? And they expect us to believe these 2007 projetions without the acquisition? Fool me once!
Selling Tomorrow unless I hear a good argument against it!
* Of course I could be wrong. On the other hand, I am the typical uninformed emotional investor... most on VMC are far more skilled at analyzing stocks... so to get me to sell like this says something about what's going to happen the next few days to this stock, in my opinion.
Len:
Thanks... I understand Floor and Ceiling effects in healthcare research but hadn't thought about it in this case, until now. You da man.
And I would've sent this message privately if I had a subscription... it doesn't add anything to the board... so feel free to delete it if you'd like.
PRZ RSI:
http://partners.tradesignals.com/xyz/charts/index.php
I used the "6 month" RSI to come up with 99... the "12 month" RSI indeed is about 73 here.
And, if I'm not interpreting what the "6" and "12" mean correctly, please clarify... I've searched around for a crystal clear explanation of it, but, the best I've found is how Tradesignals does it:
http://partners.tradesignals.com/xyz/help/rsi
Being a fairly conservative investor I'd rather go with a "6 month" RSI to see if a stock is overbought, and the "12 month" RSI to see if a stock is oversold.
Let's hope I'm thinking about this correctly... still learning. Thanks-
PRZ:
Not bashing, but 6 month RSI now at 99... I'm pretty sure we can look the other way under the circumstances, but still, like the acronym goes on my wristband: W.W.S.D. (What Would SSKILLZ1 Do?)
Len or anyone: from the "Phoenix Homes Sit" article:
"Some sellers are beginning to drop their prices. But others must stick to their prices even if they are too high because they tapped their home equity with credit lines, assuming that last year's big gains in appreciation would continue. They didn't, and rising interest rates have bumped the cost of the credit lines."
How prevalent is the "...tapped their home equity with credit lines..." phenomenon do you think? How much did that happen over the last few years; how many are going to get KILLED on it over the next few years? Have you seen any hard data to support - besides the writing on the wall(such as this article)?
Thanks...
CHID: just listened to today's presntation...
* Reported that the first acquisition should be complete in 4-6 weeks from now, and the other "soon after" that... being held up by CHID's auditors who are making sure of the numbers provided by the 2 companies...
* Check out the following to see a slide show and listen for yourselves: http://origin.vcall.com/CustomEvent/conferences/arch_investment/061506/index.htm
* They'll go rom 55mill to 81 mill O/S once acquisitions complete, but they still anticipate .13 cents/share...
* Anyone else have thoughts, comments? Thanks-
CHID should reveal a lot today at the small cap conference... special interest on the "acquisition status". I hope someone here has the opportunity to listen to it.
Saw this...
...and I immediately thought of NowAuto:
http://www.billingsgazette.net/articles/2006/06/07/news/local/88-car-theft.txt
Can anyone tie "Robert Green" to NowAuto Group?? Hmmmmm!!!!
Trade sodi.ob for camh.ob please... camh.ob will be a wildcard...
Trade PDGE.ob for CHID.ob please!
Now that the FDA has approved the Cambridge test for potential defbrillator patients, what's the chance this will become a *requirement* of Medicare's before they'll pay for an ICD implantation? Timeframe?
VMC's in an Economic Downturn?
* Do most here search for VMC's in the same manner during a slowing economy; do you rule out companies that may be considered cyclical, even if they seem to be a VMC? (abh3vt seemed to answer this question a few days ago when he stated something to the effect of "in a slowdown, many 'value stocks' become 'value traps'".)
* Anyone have any VMC's that may specifically be good for a slowdown - even if they've already been mentioned?
Thanks for any thoughts here... I just haven't seen it discussed yet with the exception of abh3vt's comment...
When to buy?
I've read through all the posts so far and have anticipated the slowing housing market for about 10 months... back then I actually resisted buying in Southern Oregon because of my suspicions and have been renting since.
What I have not seen in the posts here is an estimation about when to buy - when a "bottom" may be seen. There was something posted by Len comparing stocks to housing (that housing started to go up once the stock market dropped in 2000, etc.) - now, stocks and housing are falling...
Len has also predicted 2008 as a bottom, at least on coastal areas (if I'm interpreting correctly).
I feel like I'm blabbering. The question is: anyone have any other ideas about when to buy back into the housing market, geography being equal?
TOPT... up 18% AH... only 1,050 shares traded however... just FYI as I believe some here follow TOPT-
Thanks for the reply Lumpy... and I like Lumpy better than Geoff, although there's nothing wrong with Geoff... it's just that Lumpy is more fun to say...
Anyway I hear you and understand that docs must inform patients that the test is "not perfect" and that if the patient decides not to have an ICD because of the "normal" MTWA test, then there still is the slim chance the test could've been wrong... so, I simply hope the company is making this aware to the docs, and more importantly, that the docs are CHARTING that they discussed this with the patients (to avoid liability, etc).
And on the issue about the 400,000 people dying last year because of SCD... how many of those had any signs or symptoms before they did? Actually, I don't care how many died from SCD because I know many of those wouldn't have gone for medical care prior to that event even if they had signs, symptoms, or risk factors... In other words, how many would be potential utilizers of an MTWA test? Has anyone done an external market analysis at Cambridge, or anywhere else, that could shed some light on this?
Does anyone go in for a cardiac stress test without previous signs, symptoms, or physician suggestion (the answer here is "only the paranoid")... so what's Cambridge's potential market? (ehwest has done some pumping of CAMH on the PRZ Yahoo board recently by quoting from the American Heart Association a whole lot of meaningless numbers; I don't buy it but his posts months ago led me to do my own DD).
I'm simply trying to get at the actual current market for the MTWA test; the potential market will just be gravy... want to get past the hype... but maybe that's not possible, which is why this is a speculative stock-
I really do not mean to sound like a Bear... if these questions can be answered to my satisfaction I'll be a buyer... maybe their IR dept can help, but I always doubt their reliability simply because of bias...
Thank you!
I've been doing some DD on this company but not bought yet.
Here's just one point of discussion:
* MTWA testing looks very promising with the high Negative Predictive Value; cardiologists will be able to weed out most of those that look like ICD candidates, but are not after they show a "normal" MTWA test. This could reduce costs for the insurance companies who don't have to pay for unnecessary ICD costs, and patients of course could avoid the ICD procedure, etc. This is also good motivation for private insurance companies to cover the procedure and should be the primary point highlighted by the company when approaching private insurance companies, in my opinion.
Question: The NPV values I've seen are, at their very highest, 98%. As I understand, this means that 2% of tests might be False Negatives. So, if 2% of those tested are told they do not need the ICD because the test is "normal"... but then have a serious MI...???(after all, the patients tested are ALREADY at high risk for an MI - otherwise they wouldn't have been candidates for the MTWA test in the first place!)
What will be the consequences when this happens? Who will be sued? If this happens one time, what will happen to the MTWA business? Will this issue scare off anyone else (Cardiologists, Insurance companies), or is it just scaring little old me? Think about it... if 1000 people's tests are "normal", 20 people are STILL at high risk for a deadly MI within 6-12 months... seems like a risky business to me because the Cardiologist can place almost all his rationale for making the decision NOT to implant the ICD onto Cambridge's equipment... leaving them liable-
Thanks for any comments; I hope my concerns are unjustified...
Mr. Sheep:
Let me get this straight.
You are the compilation of the great investing minds at VMC... the "Dolly" synthesized from their DNA, if you will.
The last 2 PSL contests you've been up almost 70%.
If one were to simply invest real $$ as if he were you, would they be assured such returns?
Could it really be that easy???
Thanks for your opinion... can you elaborate on how you came to that conclusion?
RingTheRegister's new one...
MAE
Just FYI for the board. Might be good for a trade as RTR has been good for short-term trades lately, although I must say that Pappy and others here picked GV far before they did!
I do understand it's sort of sissy to trade simply based on a website and not on good hard DD, but as we say in rehabilitation, "whatever works"...
SODI... on the radar?
TREND1's chart show SODI, PYOL, and INB as "buys" (42846).
More about SODI.OB from this this Rookie:
PROS:
* 3rd Quarter numbers (3 mos ended November) indicate EPS to .13 from previous year's same Q .03
* Sales, Gross Margins nicely improved.
* Backlog up HUGE... by 43% (from 5.1 mill to 7.2 mill)
* The "nine-months ended" numbers show similar strength in these metrics.
* Trailing PE of 9.16
* As noted by a VMC poster "ecoblot" on 4/27, Raytheon (Soliton's largest customer) recently posted a great quarter.
CONS:
* Continued costs associated with 1993 bankruptcy.
* Problems and Costs associated with the Environmental Protection Agency.
* They seem to have trouble filing timely reports. (See SEC filings... I may not know what I'm talking about here...)
* Share Price is at $4.25 now from about $2.00 in January... although the RSI isn't too bad, ~60.
* It's an OTCBB listed stock.
In sum, the large backlong, low PE, and nice recent growth make me want to buy... but there seem to be a lot of red flags.
I also do not see a catalyst until they report the '06 10k (may have to wait until mid June)... but I only know what I saw from the SEC, Yahoo, and this board.
Any other thoughts on this VMC'er?
Wade (VPHM)
Nice paradox! You seem to think that VPHM needs something big tomorrow or it will go down, but at the same time think the street has overreacted (implying that it is bound to correct).
I'm betting that all the negativity is priced in and if VPHM reports average numbers tomorrow it will shoot up... of course I could be wrong...
Soren Kirkegaard seemed to take your notion - the notion of paradox - when he wrote, "The paradox is really the pathos of intellectual life and just as only great souls are exposed to passions it is only the great thinker who is exposed to what I call paradoxes, which are nothing else than grandiose thoughts in embryo."
What that has to do with stocks is simple: one must see the side of the Bull and the Bear to beat the market... most all at the VMC do so...
Has Kirkegaard ever appeared on VMC before??? (Just having some fun here... I'll try not to post BS anymore...)
Hog... it took me an SVL and a GV to make up for PRZ... those two rights made up for the PRZ wrong...
Good luck with it though as it sounds like you're still in.
Mike(GASS)
A couple things:
* The CEO is 28. He has some good experience, but this seems to be a red flag... I should know as I'm only 28...
* It's a 2 year old company using debt financing to acquire their fleet - from 9 to 24 ships very quickly. Because of this $50 million dollar debt they're set up to pay about $1.4 million per quarter against their earnings. So, after accounting for the revenue of the expanded fleet with the debt, are you still confident in the analysts/your projected EPS?
* What do you think about the possibility that they'll get a lower rate per carrier going forward? See the below link, and I did notice the CEO's comments in the Dec quarterly statement about that issue:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=3750345749&tid=gass&sid=...
(I know it's just a Yahoo poster but you never know... tis why I'm asking...)
Thanks for any response you may have...
Even with my above questions, GASS seems like a definite VMC in the short term, but they haven't beend around long enough (and I don't know enough about the LPG market) to comment on long term possibilities...
Tyler
Redfeltpoker is definitely working, and has been for at least a week (as long as I've been on it)... and there are lots of people on the real money action games...
Is this the first site for Cyop that can make some real money (please, don't tell me that skillarcade made $$)...
In other words, what does everyone think redfeltpoker's profits will contribute to Cyop's bottom line??
Researcher (and Hog)- just sold my FMD after 30% gain in about 2 weeks... now it seems like it went up too quick, and I'm still waiting on the Bank of America verdict, despite the deals in the pipeline as reported by some, including Tom Brown... I'll wait for a pullback (and the BOA decision) because I like it longterm as their business is good given the recent changes in the student loan environment.
But FMD's not a microcap so I'll say that more PRZ was acquired today - just to make this post legit! regards
Hog... you got a response from someone on the VMC about the undervalued PRZ in Lentinman's post "PRZ is definitely undervalued". Better than a sharp stick in the eye! Good times~
And OT, have you been following FMD lately? I bought in the low 30's and am wondering if the business model is indeed stable for long term.
I do realize you're not much of a big cap guy though; any other small caps you like besides the PRZ? I'm in SVL and GV presently - as I pulled the trigger a while ago after doing my own DD - after getting the tips from VMC and Pappy, respectively... I love having a variety of experts in which to pull ideas!
Hi Hog- How about putting sheeploser's posts on the VM board... I would, but they know you and I thought it would look more reputable... in any case, how happy are you that someone else is on the PRZ board now??? (just kidding of course)
Later!
Patience is a virtue... and I have it... let's hope management is in fact virtuous in their own way... they haven't been to date.
My alias is reserved for the bar... I am in Alcoholics Anyonymous after holding this stock since $5.00, and so am forced to drink under an assumed name...
Seriously Phil if you really care who I am you can find my Yahoo profile on their GV board. Just posted tonight.
I think Phil was being facetious. And yes, because I know you're all wondering, I had to make sure "facetious" was spelled correctly...
GV... picked by 13 of you for the PSL2 contest... up nicely today. Is sentiment changing to reflect forward fundamentals/potential?
GV: I'm on the boat as well and have been about 6 weeks- only concern is management, which doesn't have a good reputation. My bet is they've learned from their past...
Why the pop today?
Thanks for the replies everyone. With the T/A analysis in mind, the fundamentals are still amazing if this company keeps delivering as they recently have been. If it continues to make .15/qtr, even at $4.20 the PE is still only 7.
My thesis is that over the long term fundamentals are more important than the technicals... I hope I'm right with SVL!