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WTM & Mojo - This is a Nothing Burger article and a Nothing Burger event .
WTM - This sounds very much like North America where there are shortages of retail hydrogen, the number of stations and repeat car buyers is dropping and the retail price of hydrogen at the pump is over $30 / kg.
EC - There is NO BOTTOM Yet.
The latest Quarterly Earnings Report was actually a very serious NEGATIVE CATALYST, and drove PLUG's share price to New Lows.
The negative pressure and Down Trend in PLUG's share price will continue until there is a MAJOR Positive Catalyst, strong enough to reverse the trend and stop the bleeding.
We have not seen and positive catalyst in some time.
We still have TAX LOSS SELLING Season to go through, which could easily drive PLUG into the $2.00's.
And I don't see the DOE, Treasury of Georgia being a catalyst in 2023.
More BAD NEWS !
These guys have been consistently RIGHT about PLUG :
https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/11/25/will-plug-power-ever-earn-a-profit/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article
Leftover TURKEY - $3.47 / share !
Goldie - That's funny ! Great Link. Great source.
JMI Gregg - has been pumping PLUG from $75 ! And he looks like a NY derelict to me.
DOWN 99%. WRONG 99%.
Raj - The Blood in the Streets around here belongs to the PLUG LONGS.
From $75 to $3.40 ! DOWN 99.6%
WTM - We won't see any appreciable revenues from Georgia in 2023.
And we still don't know the total production costs for Green Liquid Hydrogen, do we?
Like every other Important PLUG Metric, I suspect GLH is a MISS !
WTM - Institutions hold 70% of PLUG ?
Institutions held 70% of ENRON, too.
WTM -
"Some of the products and services PLUG is spending Millions to develop will never make a penny and will divert resources and margins, from the moneymaking operations."
TURKEY - $3.48 / share !
WTM - Great idea ! Andy should share in the pain.
WTM - NOT as widespread as the title would imply. Less than 100 stations in the US ? And even LESS in most other developed countries?
It will be interesting to see what happens in California with their ZEV mandate for trucks at marine terminals, especially if hydrogen remains limited and is priced at $30+. BEV's perhaps ?
B_B - Who has ever said, "Fully Decarbonize". ?
Experts say that reducing CO-2 production by 80% would reverse the raise in Global Temps.
Some Hybrid vehicles today produce 90% less CO-2.
I really enjoy people who talk about saving the planet, but do nothing themselves .
Here is an Interesting Read :
https://www.barrons.com/articles/plug-power-stock-ceo-accounting-a4c49431?siteid=yhoof2
BUT .... Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, but there are shortages on the planet earth .... The only place in the universe commercializing Hydrogen.
I love Irony !
Hydrogen might be abundant, but it's not always available.
And Hydrogen is Expensive.
But the idiot says : "Hydrogen is Easy."
B_B - Andy is an idiot. A LUCKY idiot.
But still an idiot.
" I can drive across the US in a hydrogen vehicle"
"Hydrogen is Easy "
B_B - Why are you bringing up 45v? PLUG is supplying their customers with mostly Grey Hydrogen, so those volumes don't qualify for any tax credits.
And you are correct, PLUG is bleeding in several areas and not just the lousy supply deals.
I don't think PLUG will be collecting many 45v credits for 2023, because they haven't produced much green hydrogen yet.
Steve - We have needed a NEW CEO for at least 5 years ! And NOT an insider. PLUG's Management have already proven they are totally incompetent !
But Good Luck finding an All-Star to move to Latham or even think of taking on this MESS.
There is more DOWNSIDE RISK than Upside for PLUG, and a Smart CEO has figured this out.
B_B - You can't slow down the BLEEDING from the supply contracts. Those can wipe us out all on their own.
Who engineered those supply deals anyway ?
B_B - Sanjay's, Total Vertical Solution is a disaster and will ultimately destroy the company ,
and it's too late to change course.
"Some of the products and services PLUG is spending Millions to develop will never make a penny and will divert resources and margins, from the moneymaking operations."
MORE BAD NEWS !
The Hydrogen Council has released a 2023 update to its 2022 report titled Global Hydrogen Flows.
They have lowered their 2030 projections from 70m tons/yr to 40m tons/yr. This is a major reduction.
The reason for the downgrade is that both producers and would-be users of hydrogen continue to face challenges, from increasing costs to technological uncertainties to a lack of coherent and stable regulation.
B_B - Were Andy's lips moving ? Then I don't believe a word he says.
It's sad that we need a credible third party to verify anything this company reports.
WTM - The Seeking Alpha Article is quite comprehensive, with excellent graphs and charts which speak volumes.
The DECLINING Margins Chart is especially troubling !
Copying the summary does not do justice to what this article shows. To those who can, this is a great read. I would copy the entire post, but it is too lengthy.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4653021-plug-power-sell-and-do-not-look-back?source=copy_to_clipboard
"Takeaway
Issuing additional equity is likely the most realistic option for Plug at this stage, but it won't solve the underlying problems the company faces, and only buys them more time. It also comes at a very bad time, since the company's share price has been seriously eroded. I have tried hard to avoid the b-word in this article, but this amount of cash burn simply cannot continue for long in this economic environment for a company with these kinds of margins.
During the next quarters, we will likely see if Plug can extend the limited time it still has left to improve its margins. This could be done by taking on debt, but I expect that the equity issuing option is the most likely, leading to a large and likely painful dilution for existing shareholders. Other endeavors can help, such as the DOE loan program, tax credits, and the MOA with Fortescue, but these will likely not be enough.
Plug Power is obviously scrambling to avoid a cash crunch and the company is facing potential existential problems, which in my opinion makes it a very dangerous investment. For the reasons I outlined in this article, I would not want to be a shareholder. If I was one, I would sell and not look back."
B_B - The downward spiral continues. PLUG as an investment and NOW as a SUPPLIER is looking "iffy" at best.
A million dollar spend with a struggling company that might not be around or may not be able to support the equipment you are paying millions for.
NO THANK YOU.
G'day,
First, I am no longer in Vancouver, BC. Every autumn, around your Thanksgiving, I head South for the winter. I am currently in a small fishing village, La Cruz de Huanacaxtle in Nayarit, MX. Great weather, great food and no tourists.
As for PLUG :
A group of us who know the hydrogen business recently met via Zoom and here are our collective thoughts:
I still can't believe PLUG's success so far. "Can't people see the issues?"
They all think Sanjay's, Total Vertical Solution is a disaster and will ultimately destroy the company , and it's too late to change course.
"Some of the products and services PLUG is spending Millions to develop will never make a penny and will divert resources and margins, from the moneymaking operations."
"Would SK ever Buy PLUG ? I seriously doubt that could happen, we like our business model and don't see very much of PLUG fitting into our business."
SK needs to think hard.
Throw good money after BAD , or protect their investment ?
Their PLUG investment certainly hasn't gone the way they hoped ... Of course most LONGS are in the same boat.
SK can only invest more if they can get some control of PLUG, otherwise it's just throwing more good money away.
PLUG's potential for Bankruptcy may have more to do with getting out of BAD, money - losing hydrogen supply contracts.
These supply contracts are costing PLUG Millions, and the longer PLUG's production is delayed the greater the losses grow.
Another 6-12 month delay and PLUG will have NO choice but to declare Bankruptcy so that they can abrogate the contracts and stop the bleeding.
Mac - I don't disagree. PLUG will sell about as many fuel cells for United generators as they do for GSE's.
Bottom Line : The total generator related sales will barely budge the Bottom Line.
Think Funny !
Think GSE's
Think MULAG
Yet another hydrogen product without a market.
WTM - Think Funny !
BMW has been talking Hydrogen for 20 Years !
And NOW they have just ONE concept vehicle ? No Productions models ? After 20 Years ?
BMW NOW Offers more the TEN EV's in FULL PRODUCTION.
BMW's Hydrogen efforts remind me of PLUG's hydrogen production efforts in Georgia ....
Years of Talk , but not much production.
If BMW can make a car that runs on FALSE PROMISES , PLUG will be their Number One supplier.
WTM - I don't like Bombastic Jim Cramer, and I don't know anyone who does.
Nevertheless, he has a large audience, and some people do listen to what he says:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jim-cramer-recommends-selling-10-204848341.html
I would have been more impressed if Cramer said, "SELL" at $60 or $50.
MORE BAD NEWS !
- No HUB Money until 2025.
- I am worried about the DOE Loan even happening
And Now This :
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-hydrogen-tax-credit-rule-could-slip-into-2024-amid-debate-over-its-design-2023-11-16/#:~:text=Nov%2015%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20The,incentive%2C%20according%20to%20two%20sources
Here's a Fun Read :
“I think the only way you’d be able to PLUG in is if you think someone’s going to engineer a short squeeze here, and I’ve got to tell you, that is not a good reason to own a stock. Those numbers were terrible, I say stay away.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jim-cramer-recommends-selling-10-204848341.html
WTM - Why ?
runner - PLUG demand came from Shorts covering Deep in the Money and intraday profit-taking.
Neither is a sign of Health.
MORE REALLY BAD NEWS !
Plug Power slides as Citi cuts, seeing 'narrow way out' of near-term problems
Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG) -7.1% in Thursday's trading as Citi downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy with a $5 price target, slashed from $12.50, saying management's "subpar execution has led the company into liquidity challenges."
"Although there is a narrow way out of the near-term issues, margin of error is small," Citi's Vikram Bagri wrote, adding the 45V PTC clarification, which was a potential catalyst, is "now a much-needed lifeline, which could also pose insurmountable challenges if unfavorable."
The analyst estimated Plug (PLUG) will require $500M of cash over the next six months against line of sight to $930M in liquidity, and believes the company will need more cash by Q3 2024 at the latest.
Plug Power (PLUG) is poised as a leader of the nascent hydrogen economy with its vertical integration strategy and global partnerships, but Bagri believes margin expansion will take longer than expected to play out."
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4037857-plug-power-slides-as-citi-cuts-seeing-narrow-way-out-of-near-term-problems?mailingid=33394715&messageid=2900&serial=33394715.14056&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=33394715.14056