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Buffalo said: For a science guy, Mcgann is working Rube Goldberg style. Comical truly
Rube would be the definition of convoluted but entertaining. I find him neither.
SILENT? STEALTHY? - sure. The problem w/ Silent Stealthy is basically, shareholders know nothing about a key aspect of the company they invest in, thanks to McGann. Did you ever consider that some potential investors think ISC is a one product company? A one product company with all sorts of crazy loan deals?
In terms of Non-contact NOT being viable- you are so wrong. You try swabbing down a box in the back room of a freight forwarder-- its a job for an automated non-contact multi vortex headed dynamo that uses the software platform from the B-220.
RJ- 3 ph calls and 3 emails- no reply. Two other calls forwarded- no reply. I guess maybe its time for a contentious CC?
The original TSA order was to be shipped in 3 parts. One part would have shipped in fscl.15 with the other 2 by mid cal. 16. So no matter how you cut it, IF TSA is staying to the final delivery schedule, one part is due this June, today as matter of fact.
McGann also hinted at an up-buy at Checkpoint, meaning Smith's are going to the junk pile.
But lets say the TSA order goes out in 4 parts;
- in Q4 fscl: TSA part 1- 292 units
- Rotw Q4 fscl: about 250 units to possibly more...
Round down #s, that's about 500 units at 40K$ asp= $20M in Q...not bad at all and THIS will open eyes if they pay down some debt.
Twitter use = Rebrand? Awesome! I like the position line: Debt Ends Sometime After Soon.
Can I get an .81 close on GSN Award PR day?
TSA ordered 1170 units in 3 shipments.
McGann stated: according to the original TSA shipment order
McGann stated: First part in late May to Mid-June
We are due for a very large $ PR that AGAIN ( thankfully) lists the $162M TSA IDIQ value and ideally contains a statement that all interest due Plat. has been paid. This little ole $12M interest balance is gumming up all things and it must be squashed ASAP. Its very hard to see the SP dynamic changing until THAT roadblock is cleared.
The company is overdue in figuring this out and doing what is necessary to more the SP forward. I hope they wake up tomorrow and realize that the meager SP reflects poorly on everyone.
So McGann, at .77 cents/ share, is ISC undervalued? Please answer that fundamental question.
McGann claimed ISC was capturing tenders ( implied vol) at a 60% rate. He also cautioned that he did NOT expect that capture rate to continue.
It would be EXTREMELY helpful to the company, to investors and an attractant to provide the ongoing scorecard in ECAC active markets. Reason why, potential investors are doing the math, figuring the IDIQ might remove debt IF the margins rise due to rapid rises in ECAC captures.
Say we are actually capturing 80% of the active ECAC market---extrapolate that against $45M thru Sept. that's about 35M at 50% margin it drops down almost 18M in cash, or full payment of the BAM loan.
When there is clarity, there is confidence. ISC is providing very little. Huge problem in my view.
RJ- I lifted this from the TOC. I believe it is all about ISC!
10.4 ETD of the Future: Performance & Operational Goals
10.5 Advanced Sample Collection
10.6 Dual Sensor ETD Technology
10.7 Integrated Explosives, Chemical Warfare and Narcotics Trace Detectors
fant- great post! And spot on, in my view. For investors to even suppose that a CEO is lying to them in a CC is absurd and beyond the pale. The company would be dragged into court so fast...
Worse, to be an "investor" in ISC and not understand the unique nature of gov. certifications and world wide gov. certifications means THEY should NOT be invested here.
All sales this year are credited to Glenn as he led the way in gaining all the certs. worldwide that allowed ISC to quote on. No Cert= No Quote.
I certainly understand frustration as I have had ear-fulls of it from people I encouraged to invest into ISC. Sadly, most are much more frustrated NOW, post-IDIQ award than prior to IDIQ award. It was put to me this way: why would you strive for years to gain the largest IDIQ in TSA history and then shut your "mouth" about you success????
Glenn said much and did more. McGann did much less and says almost nothing. While neither is a perfect way, today, I scratch my head and frown everytime I look at the SP and don't hear positive communications about debt restructuring and erasure.
For God's sake why the company does NOT put the TSA IDIQ award in every PR with the full potential dollar amount is sickening.
WTH does that mean? Seriously, "not because of but in spite of ". Then the stupid joke at the end over Glenn's apartment--not nice but noted.
What? DO BIZ WITH THE US GOV. AND THEN COME BACK HERE AND RELATE THAT EXPERIENCE.
Worse, go to France, receive STAC certification for your gear, then have the same gear get cert'd by ECAC...then have some lame brain at French airport xyz say: We have to test you again. All the while France is under attack by terrorists.
Do you have any idea how hard this process is? How many YES' turn into MAYBE's and then decay into NO or flip all the way around back to YES? It will boggle the mind.
All the while this is going on, you have the lies and deceit cast about by some of your competitors. Crafty sorts which know exactly which buttons to push and with a certain pressure.
I would hazard this guess: Christ himself would have said the same things to us as Bolduc said, but he would have used a different disclaimer. ( OK, bad joke)
Nowak-- go do business with a secretive arm of the US gov. that has to address the scientific community's product ecosystem within the restraints set forth by Congress. Tell me how Congress has NO role in anything that goes on DHS/TSA etc, would you? Or the external events that drive security decisions about approvals and equipment purchases.
IF you really thought he lied to you, then do something about it.
I think he relayed info he had at the time and extrapolated that info into events that came to be EXACTLY where ISC is at right the hell now. The man was a prophet.
He gave me his strategic vision for ISC. Aside from a clam-job in the CEO suite, we are still on that track. I listened and at the end I said: I'll follow along but you know, this ride is going to be very bumpy. You stay on course and I will encourage MANY to join this company in its quest.
- ACSTL
-TSA QPL
-STAC
-CHINA
-RUSSIA
- Airport bfe in France
- S.AM
All came to pass. ALL. The flies in the ointment- US BUSINESS...it failed to care much about the cargo it inspects and then forwards. OK, not perfect, but it is yet to be, IMO.
Ya'll been drinkin the same "water" on this board and its not good water.
I am sensing you like the style of this new management-- yes or no?
Did they ever lead you on? Are they not jackasses in new clothes too?
Not sure how to figure you;
- you buy shares
- you speak to Bolduc
- you then hate him but you still own shares
- the company achieves what Bolduc said it would
- the new regime fires Bolduc and the SP tanks over a PR re: the firing but you still own shares.
- the SP stinks and continues to stink yet you still own shares...hasn't the effect of firing Bolduc taken hold as of yet?
Buffalo, no offense, but you a riddle wrapped in a fortune cookie and written in Martian.
KB- give me an example where you were 100% sure Glenn had prior knowledge and then mislead an investor called "kidneybeans" by saying something to you he knew was false?
I propose your arguement is with TSA, not with Glenn. But that is just me. I am aware of what transpires between the gov. and vendors to the gov.
But go a bit further, did you ever confront Glenn with current knowledge that refutes his past statements to you? Did he ever give you a reasonable explanation as to why things changed?
I spoke to him once. I listened to every CC. I have no problems with anything he ever said on a CC. Sure, I was disappointed but I am sure not half as much as he was when things did change.
But if you think he mislead you, what about McGann and Jones? Did they mislead you too?
Then consider Plat. Partners...did he mislead them also? They sure were willing participants in the whole evolution of a dead as a doornail company into a company that secured a $162M IDIQ from TSA. Do you know how rare that is?
Wouldn't you think, if he lied to me about xyz, there is no hope of anything coming from TSA or from China or from S.AM or from STAC or from ECAC or from abc airport in France who disregarded STAC and ECAC and had to run their own ETD test? Or from the doubters here who screamed bloody murder when I said that Dr. Jones is the best marketing director working in ETD today---or that he was and in fact did, build a world class selling infrastructure--- all screaming responses said: he can't sell anything, he lied, he fill in the garbage.
I believe that reasonable men can have fair differences of opinion. But some things are proved beyond a doubt just after the finish line. Bolduc was one of the most truthful and open CEOs I have ever spoken with. And smart too. And honest. Did he bring home the largest IDIQ in the history of ETD? He did. And investors are grateful.
Zey- you got the sales process all wrong over most of what I read you consistently post. And thanks to you, about 15 people dumped some of their shares. Were you lying that whole time? Ah, you got it wrong. Even after you were told you were wrong, you still got it wrong. Your "consistency" is worthless in a dynamic world.
One thing about GB, he always expressed the best intentions based on what he knew or was told by gov. powers and always tried 100% to make them happen. I have a rough time saying anything bad about that kind of guy. I cannot say THAT was wrong. Its just the process.
Well the difference, in what you are pointing to: he was either a liar or clueless. He was neither. He was "in the process", that is all. 99.5 out of 100 CEOs would have done the same. When you are told that o-t-e is over by xx-xx-xxxx and you share that with owners, but that changes via whatever the reason, you did NOT do something wrong, what you said was RIGHT at the time, but things change.
IF ISC was never cert'd, never approved, you would have what the old imx would have been, DEAD.
Be thankful for what you have, but always be vigilant for what is going on today and be ready for tomorrow. Bolduc gave us this company, we have to deal with that...all the good and all the debt. That is my position-- get the balance sheet clean or at least let me know you are trying.
Huh?Didn't YOU in fact talk to him? Didn't what he say to you come to pass? I am trying to decode what you are saying. Speaking to shareholders was BAD? Is that it? Or is telling them what the TSA told you about a process deadline or event was a bad thing?
Consider the alternative: say nothing, kill any market for the stock, kill follow on loans, the company is then dead.
I think the man worked miracles. Today's debt is the outcome, but seriously, the process is slanted toward well funded multi-nationals. ISC bucked that trend and that is why it is such a great american success story. All the people at ISC should be and likely are very proud of what they have accomplished. But now, the challenges are new ones. The tasks are changing but what are the new courses of action?
I listened to your claim that removing Bolduc would vault the stock to $2 or whatever...not sure that was a lucid thought then, in hindsight, it was absurd on its face.
Do you own shares in IMSC?
Hate to tell you this, he relayed what he was told. So your gripe/slam is with TSA, not the CEO. What did you want him to say: I was told something by TSA but I am not going to repeat it??????????
Really, take a hike, you'll feel better.
IGH- what is the con-ops for use of any handheld and/or the 150-E? Then, what are the specs that are derived from that particular con-ops or are the features driving the con-ops and thus the specs? This question rules the handheld category.
I say this because I know for a fact, the current 150 outhunts any handheld offered by S or M. But both S/M had a handheld on TSA QPL. And it was based on their particular features with a very weak (IMO) con-ops and vague (invisable spec) in place by TSA. TSA has let their listing expire on the QPL.
One might say, Gee, why didn't ISC try to get their 150 on the TSA's QPL? ( the answer is a book, not a paragraph but they did and failed. IMO, McGann solved that but also is a book).
Once you get a ETD DTD that works within a spec'd con-ops, then the next question is, who will pay for it. There are maybe 8 states that are NOT insolvent today.
Look at police militarization, which came about from an LA bank robbery where the perps out armed, out armoured the cops while being outnumbered 50 to 1. The US military and fed gov. began offering arms to cops who got them thru fed grants. FED GRANTS being the key operative word. But the driver is compelling need. Compelling need was two guys with heavy arms gunning down cops with pistols. Compelling need for DTD is points of entry, IMO. And certain High Schools. Border will receive B-220s shortly...but hand helds? Maybe. High Schools? Maybe a really bad inner city school...say top 100 worst in the USA. But who is paying for it?
Shi- today could have been 78 units sold...it matters not until there is clarity on debt, on dilution, on financing, on surviving all of the preceding. Its mystery science- as no one knows the debt structure-- a week and a half ago, on the phone to a relative who bought shares, he says: is the debt 45M or is it above 55M? I couldn't say for sure so I directed him to call the company and leave a message.
The debt loans and re-termed aspects make it a corn maze of sorts. But one thing we know, if July 1st brings interest paid in shares or the 8 cent loan is converted or both, the SP is going to stay capped until Oct. AND BL's smokescreen answer about share selling is officially defunct and due for clarification.
IT- key Centurion on the left flank- hold that line, kill all deserters AFTER you kill the enemy.
Well DEBT is the enemy, not the lack of the General on the Line. But you are totally right, if you look at all great generals in all great battles, the winner was picked by the general with the best strategy, the best position on the field and of course, the leadership of the general on/near the line.
Patton comes to mind. So does Alexander. But what about Napoleon? Seldom ON the line but always in view of it. THAT is our mgt. today. They will buy. And THAT will be all LONGS signal to buy. When they buy sizeable lots of shares, it foretells of very good things. They see the line, but they are NOT on the line. ( the line in this story is share accumulation).
Zey,please try to present in real terms. The debt you lay on GB paid who's salaries? Paid for who's travel costs to build out a marketing network? Paid for who's R-D costs? Who's patent filings? Who's higher rent? Who's expanded employee count?
Weren't you the rabid poster carping about lack of sales? In fact you were. In fact you have no idea how the sales process works. So today, you question the real reason of why the SP is stuck in reverse by laying the blame to the past--well, ah YEAH, ISC was a development company in debt, running up debt in hopes of gaining key gov. approvals to allow the quoting process. They have that accomplished THAT right now.
So why is the SP stuck in reverse?
Pick one:
- sales are NOT strong enough to outpace debt
- debt interest is still growing causing ongoing dilution making investment into a black box with insurmountable debt painted in red on the side of said box
- the company has not communicated with the market as to its current approach to removing debt
- current mgt. is looking to refi to enable their own gain
- only Plat and BAM have enough confidence in ISC at 15-16% interest to loan money to it
- mgt. could have rolled out a secondary but that is too much work
- the new refi at 12% is a coming
Seriously, yesterdays problem was lack of gov. certs, today's problem is lack of mgt. initiative to remove the debt that allowed the company to get gov. certs. Think Zey, you'll figure it out.
IT- you make a good point. IF 77/share was a slam dunk profit for longs and mgt., why would they NOT borrow to buy shares?
Everybody wants to point to sales and say: SEE, THEY ARE A GREAT COMPANY. Nobody wants to speak to debt and say: when will it leave, how much progress have we made in removing it.
Meanwhile, the company hides the debt in the bell tower of Notre Dame but the lingering hunchback keeps ringing the bell silently while every day stealth dilution sets its volume to daily demand.
By the way, watch the Hunchback of Notre Dame if you get the chance- fantastic movie.
Toro- relax if you can, watch for inside buying, at some point they will buy or get shares and that will be the best time to buy.
IGH - ah yes, the human nature gear. You are correct. Two things point to the refi coming thru McGann or Jones or McGann and Jones;
- SP decay as this sets their right to buy LOWER
- S DILUTION as this sets their 1% of shares higher.
Guess what, we have both going on in spades.
But we have one piece of the puzzle to lock in-- the company has to remove the $12M in interest that is accruing interest while stating it will NOT pay new interest in shares. If it does those, then it can also close out the 8 cent convertible loan which stands at about 3-3.25M$.
When your cost to keep the doors open every qtr is some 5.75 to 6.25M, and your debt is dragging on the sales engine, you need to lower all costs. Like salaries, expenses, rent and of course the biggest anchor in any harbor, debt larger than your cap or your rev. run rate.
I like hearing more and more sales PRs but frankly, they were predicted over a year ago with STAC-ECAC-RUSSIA-CHINA and TSA certs while S/M floundered with new ETDs without nuclear material in them. Thank GB for this most excellent cycle timing and keen strategic vision. Thank McGann for streamlining the production process and excellent build output and really thank Doc Jones, the wizard of worldwide marketing and sales for hitting every mark, every time.
I hope they gain those refi bonus' but via the steps I outlined above because it will bring strong alignment between mgt. and shareholders; B and D will have more than 1% of the company each, strong incentives to tamp down costs, pay out converts, control dilution...which then makes a sales PR like yesterdays about 3 to 4 times more powerful.
The bad news lurking, IF the company has NOT used some recent sales profits to pay down debt ( god, why would they not?), the July first convert by Plat. is coming to reload the dump truck.
Here's a beer and a cheer to a debt free future!
If the company produced 100 units / month from Nov. 14 to May 15, they have plenty of capacity/inventory to fill all orders as planned.
TSA's pdfs are as reliable as TSA's other interactions with vendors, so I guess there COULD be a schedule that is unlike what TSA has published and unlike what McGann has spoken of.
In the bigger picture, TSA is in a sense, sitting on their hands by allowing nuclear containing ETDs that give off false alarms and take far too long to process a result STAY on the line. Further, since current line products (ETDs-AITs-EDS)-personal-procedures have been shown to fail, lets say, MOST OF THE TIME, the onus is on TSA to change faster and for the better.
Next Gen ETD has been approved by Congress, has been awarded to a vendor (ISC) and is needed NOW, not next year. Just guessing, but TSA needs to jump, not dawdle. IF they want 366 ETDs from ISC by this week, I don't see that as a problem nor an unexpected development, rather, as one that was needed 5 months ago. You don't protect the country by talking thru hypotheticals in PDFs while a Red Team report shows your "security wall" to be made of swiss cheese.
One of the key questions usually asked by Congress when they bring an administrator from the executive branch before committee, " when YOU found out that the USA was at risk, as shown in your own report, what immediate action to implement to STOP those threats?"
This cannot possibly be your answer to that Congressman: "I wrote a PDF file that showed delays in implementing the tools Congress paid for that would have protected the American people had we taken action immediately."
FYI- McGann also pointed to a possible expansion of # of units w/ TSA. I believe these would be Smith's line units.
I did read Deployments PDF, which still shows this JUNE to next APRIL, about the time frame of the first 3 part TSA order for 1170 units.
McGann spoke of the original declared 3 shipments to fill the 1170 order with first from Mid May to Early Jun'15.
So until McGann corrects the information he provided, I will rely on him as opposed to a rumor posted on a message board.
In terms of your other numbers, well again, I will rely on the company's PR:
" In a span of approximately two months, Implant Sciences has announced a number of major ETD sales to international airports in Europe, totaling up to 500 units across five countries."
So this qtr. is going to up phenom. #s, not the ones you have posted.
Toro- It is written; shareholders will do what they have to make something out of this investment.
But hold firm, today's flip for 7 cents will be eclipsed by the BEFORE JULY 1ST POP coming from the first TSA shipment. We are so in that window, which IMO, is why we have pulled up from 60s into the upper 70s, current longs-traders-flippers-shorts and perhaps the Grand Dumper are all waiting for the TSA shipment that McGann promised us on the CC. I believe he spoke of a late May to early June partial. My guess, 1/3 of total 1170 order and $23M in revenue.
Consider what that makes the Q look like rev.-wise: 500 in last 2 months from say 38K to 44K/ unit!!! Pretty amazing numbers. And that's before TSA shipment is PR'd!!!!
Literally, ISC could sold 800 units inside of 3 months! At 40K-asp, that's about 32M$ in Rev. I think its higher than that, but using that floor for Q4-15 rev. is going to create a tremendous headline. And a nice opportunity to begin to stamp out debt and ask potential investors to follow our progress to debt freedom.
Now, if insiders did buy a real amount of stock on the open market, then of course the SP would jump as they likely know of ALL the good potentials coming home to ISC. And they will, at some point.
To nano-cap in a lumpy sales sector surrounded by large multi-nationals, staggering debt is our terrorist. We have to shrink it.
Aside from that, I think the next 3 weeks may be the best time of all to own ISC!
I have. No response. Sadly, I will continue to speak about this and continue to try to gain contact with McGann. As a shareholder who sees a management turn CLAM on legitimate shareholder calls, I am very un-happy.
So does a 76 cent a share in a company that refuses to take my calls seem like an attractive investment to me, a current holder of more shares than may be good for my health?
I cannot see how refusing to talk with owners, refusing to address key issues, refusing to speak to the market- are wise and healthy postures for the company or my investment.
What did you hear from your emails to the company?
Join me Nowak in vetching about the debt erasure plan yet to be addressed or spoken about in a voice louder than a church mouse.
I agree, everyone dislikes the debt. But to be afraid of it to the point where you cannot speak about it-- that would NOT be the way to go about beginning to erase it.
The first step is point at it ( the debt in case I lost you) and tell it; DEBT, YOU ARE DEAD.
The second step, actually pay off the crippling interest and stop paying interest on said crippling interest or any interest on any principal in shares.
To those saying: no one knows about us and that is why they won't buy our stock. NOPE, they know more about us than we care to admit and that is the debt and lack of expressed will to remove that debt.
Don't get me wrong, I am still an investor and I would be and might be a buyer once again IF they showed some reliability in doing what they said they would do, re-brand the company. To me that speaks volumes as to their will to stand with loyal shareholders who are not dumping shares like the debt holder. Would it not be a wonderful moment should Plat. go long on ISC? ( ain't ever going to happen, but a dream is just that...)
REMOVE THE DEBT FROM THIS HOUSE!
Jump into that breach and leap on top of that grenade, would ya?
Who wants to buy 70M$ in debt along with that 76 cent share? Its a factor and don't say it isn't.
Turmelle was paid in shares priced at 8 cents each. He sold alot the following years. He keep kept some 8 cent shares. The company and shareholders were/ are grateful as there was no place else to turn. Just as Plat.'s initial 8 cent conversion option was the only available life raft for the company.
The company continued to rely on over priced loan options for years while it developed key gov. approvals to allow sales of its newly developed products. Oddly, those approvals keyed to replacement cycles in the USA and Canada. Nicely done, IMO.
However, the company has developed a reputation as a pauper deeply in debt and surrounded by multi-national competitors seeking its demise AND newly emerging technologies attempting to disrupt and capture a portion of its new dominent position in the trace detection sector.
When Roger says NO MORE LOANS FROM ME- that would be a sign of trouble. All shareholders owe Roger a debt of gratitude and about 15% interest for his short term bridge loans.
Shi This qtr. will generate a huge headline in terms of rev. : Say 15M to potentially 27M.
What they do with that rev. is far more important. As far as I can tell, paying interest on outstanding interest is the high sign of a ship burning to the water line. They have to STOP doing that and address this head on.
Time also plays a role in the competitive track so getting the "E" into certification process could potentially mean a partner/parent invests into ISC. This would vault the stock and maybe smoke out the last low ball convert held by Plat.
I know they get all of this and understand it very well. And that puzzles me as to their trying to hide a purple t-rex eating everyone's lunch out on the front lawn.
KILL THIS DEBT LIKE IT WAS MOKTAR BELMOKTAR.
Zey- totally agree that the 220 is a platform. It came from the 200, not the 100 nor the 150 but does share some aspects ( ionizing method).
220 vs 150= different methods of sample acquisition= required certs for each, IMO. The TSA has never cert'd the 100 nor the 150.
Rumor, 150-E will be hyphenated, meaning continually acquiring and ionizing or continually acquiring and accumulating for ionizing. These aspects make the product a world beater but pose some challenges, which I am very sure Todd/Bill are very well matched to solve.
The TSA believes in T/B with $2M invested in solving the issues, however, the TSA will require a new con-ops ( the one used for S/M handhelds is defunct like the S/M handhelds are defunct). This means a cert. process but also portends a huge change in airports.
IG- the "E" opens alot of usage passageways. However, the current 150 is better than a canine, except for the fact a canine can sniff XYZ "yards" of suspect "material" in XX seconds, while it would take a 150 much much longer. Thus my hope for the "E" is it continually interrogates. However than can be achieved.
Some State Police units and NYC transit have S/M handhelds ETDs, my guess, they would chuck any-every S/M handheld for "Rover" in a NY second.
But I am glad the S/M desktop ETDs are NOT platforms and are going thru a rigorous certification that I hope fails, but that I also doubt fails.
TSA approves same machines with simple software upgrades very quickly.
A different method of specimen collection is going to get a full review, IMO, but hey, see if MCG concurs.
And if the "E" was going to be Easy, they could have flown it thru in weeks instead of months.
When the 220 had a software upgrade, it still had to be reviewed. But swab is one thing, a vortex collector is quite another. If you were close to right, a S/M ETD would have been approved by now. Same software, slightly different ionizing method= thru the full cert. process.
I am an investor in ISC with plenty to lose or gain. I could care less if you dislike what I post and have no agenda in terms of fooling anybody.
Change in postings? Sure, plenty has changed since I started posting here. Some of which has been stellar, some of which has been disappointing and some of which lies below the surface of this company.
But one thing has transpired that greatly irritates me:
This company captured success and has squandered that momentum. Why should a old 5M/yr company with a NEW $162M TSA GOLDEN IDIQ face SP decay? I don't see a good reason to justify that. Nor do I like that, nor do I want to accept that, nor do I want it to continue.
Truthfully, I post what I think. If that works/doesn't work for you- fine, I have no desire to know who you are, how much you own nor any other detail about you- only relevant thoughts that can help or attempt to help this company gain what it rightfully deserves.
Zey- they have had many more than 1 product, just one product cert'd by TSA. They have sent a 100, a 150, a BTS 200, a portal, a 300 to TSA.
Also, MCG stated that sales in this sector are not just lumpy, they are very small lumps, meaning even harder to see/predict.
I agree and have stated that ISC is and will be the sales leader in contact ETD...until such time as S/M one or both have non-rad ETD's certd. So time is against us.
Re Bolduc- I stated many times, he had a plan, he was executing on that plan and he was apprising the market of the milestones hit or delayed on that plan. What's not to like about that?
In terms of filling orders and securing orders-- well you fail and have flailed at ISC sales as you do not understand the process NOR were cognizant of Dr. Jones unique skills in his position. So he continues on and fullfills what Bolduc started.
In terms of building machines, MCG is doing that. Which is good. As it should be.
Your refer to DMRJ's term extension as a positive sign. I would HOPE so, a $162M contract that can be 100% filled should guarantee that.
THAT is what the company needs to point to and work a refi against. Think about it, IF you are loan worthy with 5M$/yr in sales at 16%, aren't you MORE loan worthy for a much lower rate with a $162M contract in hand? During a huge replacement cycle?
I think they are, yet we paid a higher interest.
EMEA is a market opening but like anything else, how is that market going acquire products/systems. Smiths would have you think that EMEA is going to work in packages with Metal-EDS-ETD-AIT all coming from a sole provider. I sure hope they unbundle their buying and focus on the best in category.
So you like MCG's mgt. take so far, yet you have said he is not a CEO...work on that thought...
Do you even know where they are in the replacement curve globally or what other applications they are trying to sell into?
Good question: the only reliable replacement markets active are the USA/Canada. ISC has 100% of what the TSA intends to replace-had intended to replace. That was Morpho's share of ETDs on the line. MCG has hinted that Smith's may ALSO be replaced. The IDIQ amt. allows for that.
No one has factored the RED TEAM report into the mix. IF TSA finds that Smith's ETDs failed against the latest subs-surfaces-disguises, then add another 1400 to the USA's replacement #.
Canada's purchase will be shared between ISC and Smith's. None for Morpho. But I am not sure if its a new Smiths ETD or the old ones with nuclear material.
ECAC markets--filling in quickly to meet a mandate. As long as the mandated time frame does not slip, ISC is more gold than anyone else.
ROTW- guesses as to what they are doing- China was non-contact but testing swabbing...not sure of their con-ops but swabbing works against very small #s screened out of very large numbers passed through a choke point.
What they will get with the handheld or the integrated screening by the time they complete these sales which will last at least a few years?
Time frame for ISC holding a large % of share of contact(swabb) is set by cert. time table for S/M new ETDs. TSA will resist sole vendor reliance. We have maybe 1 year to as long as 1.75yrs assuming S/M are in cert. process right now.
Handheld is NON-CONTACT...there are NO specs. and NO con-ops. for vortexing handheld non-contact. Until they set how they intend to use it, they can't set a reliable spec. Until they have a working model to test to see its strengths/features, its very hard to say how to use it. Chicken- egg kinda thing. Maybe MCG is stalling, banking on a stretched "E" development curve gives the company a perfect landing into a NEW replacement cycle. IE- in 2 yrs the "E" is certd which sets off a NEW replacement cycle.
My own thought- TSA just had an awakening- swabbing is dangerous to everyone if its NOT used perfectly and IF the bomb-builder is aware of old sloppy practices.
For debt, you should divide net debt to EBITDA to make a comparison among different public companies. When they reach to your scenarios, even a higher absolute debt amount will not be an issue.
See this is where you miss the sector uniqueness. ETD/Security sales are very lumpy with the lumps being very variable both in time and size. Debt kills non-diversified, sole product companies very fast. My approach- kill debt faster = longer life. Just my take but I don't see your "take" as safe. I would never apply mass market rules to companies like ISC
February to today is not even 2 full quarters and this management team needs better credit for that although I still think that McGann is better as a COO.
I think you miss the boat on this analysis. MCG was COO for over a year with production being his responsibility. So he's doing what he did. Its painfully obvious he is NOT a CEO.
However, he is a great scientist with a deep-wide vision for products...so COB/CSO chief science officer would be the ideal way to let him rule and invent. While a great CEO can manage,communicate, present, plan, sell, market and execute on BOD approved plans.
What I don't like nor see any real benefit to shareholders is having the COB on a 4 man BOD also be the CEO/COO/CSO. And I really dislike this NO-CHECK/BALANCE approach to running a public company. Maybe Miller comes back to court again over this.
These are just my views from where I sit. Oh yeah, July 1st will also bring a huge refill of shares for Plat. to sell into the market. That seems to time nicely with the first TSA order as stated by the COB-CEO-COO-CSO. ( isn't that a one man band mgt. act)
It was NOT a thesis, rather a look into the well. You have that straight, great.
Certainly, not every dollar in op./profit will be paid against debt. But if you are so smart, what % of op. profit paid against debt makes ISC viable? Try to remember your rambling posts about "where are the sales" and about how "Dr. Jones should be fired". Do you have a clue as to the actual sales process? Selling in Europe was started with submission for certification.
Further, right now ISC is benefiting from product refresh in mature mkts. using ETD and the opening of a NEW markets for ETD (ECAC/MID EAST). Somebody timed ISC position absolutely perfectly. However, once NEW swabbing machines are in place, then comes issues for all ETD makers. ISC will then have contact ETD competitors with newly approved ETDs.
As investors here have found out, its a very tough market to predict as it comes/goes but can be driven by world-wide events. Bottom line, out of debt faster = security for ISC. Not much more to my thesis than that. But I don't think ISC will be debt free in 2 years, if that was your take. Say Thank You to Doctor Jones, it will be nice to hear!
KB- totally agree, with one caveat- they must promote their position/products.
So what appears to be lacking are those two tracts: debt reduction plan/ company -product promotion plan...it would help if we had enlightened mgt. that realized those two issues taken together bar the door to NEW investment.
Looking forward, Q4/15 ends June 30th, likely to post 10M in rev. low side and possibly 32M if 1/3 of TSA order ships in the Q. Those numbers are astounding and attention generating, huge opportunity for the company to address the issues at hand and move to front and center.
Will they do that? I pray they do. But I can't say with conviction that it is so obvious that they will.
We don't know the inner workings of TSA, but its fairly easy to deduce that things are all shook up inside their structure. One possible tact: TSA kicks out ALL S/M ETDs sooner than later, ramps the IDIQ to a year and half, relies on ISC to ramp production. Another tact: TSA slows down as new mgrs review everything, Congress injects itself, things go slower not faster. But make no mistake, the USA is more at risk with S/M ETDs on the line and that has to be addressed.
Are you buying shares today? IF so, keep buying tomorrow too. And follow up next week. They are on sale and will be on sale so keep buying.
IT's point is a fair one, insiders want to make money on their investments just like we do. And they will KNOW when it is time to buy. But to each his own. I own more than I can handle but I really don't want to give shares away, nor do I have to. So I am a solid/insider influenced HOLD. But no way should that stop YOU from buying MORE. Stay on the bid and prosper.