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Adding at $1.9 .. low volume sell off .. continuation from Friday
We probably used different ways of getting to same $3M / quarter number .. so encouraging number maybe close
Now , question is if they will launch or funny things will happen like Focalin initial fiasco
I am trying to get a handle of expected leg term royalty from Serq sales
Looking at Focalin .. The 15mg and 30mg uses to enjoy $200M sales in 2013 before generics kicked in. We know these two made about $600k royalty for IPCI last quarter , 3 years later
Seroquel , all strength enjoyed $1B ..
assuming MNK can be half as successful as PAR launch .. royalty on sales (excluding profit from manufacturing ) should be about $1.5M a quarter, 3 years down the road
Manufacturing profit should be about same as royalty ... leading to $3M a quarter total net .. 3 years firm the road .. profits should be higher initially
Stock action suggests Purdue must have a very strong case .. I wonder if anyone has looked into the case in details
Someone needs to figure the merits of lawsuit .. Is it a string, medium or a weak case
$15M a year till Rexista gets resolved /commercialized in 2019 is pretty good ... Rexista adds $50M royalty on top of CF positive ... valuing company at $350M or $12 a share
Endo Seroquel last Q sales ... Fourth quarter revenues totaled $1.24 bn (vs consensus of $1.16 bn), representing 16% growth due to first-to-file generic launches for quetiapine (Seroquel) and ezetimibe (Zetia). These products added roughly $300 mn of combined sales during the period.
I should say sustained CF positive .. they got to CF positive for a couple of quarters during Focalin 180 day exclusivity
Samsa .. I think CF positive is something unique that has not been in past 5 years .. that should put a bottom in stock price
News flow also should be good
1- Serq commercial opera
2- additional Focalin mg
3- CF positive
Maybe
Partnership/commercial for gluc
New ANDA under MNK
Patent settlement
So hang in 2 more years until you know Rexista outcome .. if it gets commercialized then you have a $25+ a share
If so, we should bounce back mid to late next week .. a few days to digest
Just a theory ..
Last half an hour seller comes in to push price down .. as he gets paid on his puts based on closing price .. illegal but happens
I have it at 1.98 .. I have seen this way too many times ... great opp to add here below $2 (hopefully)
Could be the guy that it's put expires today is selling today and buying at lower prices ... great opp to add today below $2
Hard to believe people will sell this under $2 .. But, it will go there today to clear sellers there
My thought as well .. that is why am surprised that aegis analyst was taken off guard .. wonder if he knew he has lost underwriting .. his clients shorted prior to expected news and they bought on downgrade
Surprising is he did not factor this in his analysis .. Lawsuit was expected
Aegis downgrade from $8 to $2 seems strange , given, even I, expected this to happen.
Did he give this zero possibility ? Very strange
Samsa .. Thank you .. makes sense
Regarding two approved and not commercialized, Is your thought that they are worthless .. What is value of those ?
Samsa .. Do you know if case with Purdue is dropped or settled in 5
Months, would FDA date of sept 25 be kept or delayed by 5 months?
How much bonus are we taking about if all remaining ANDA gets approved, outside MNK deals
Gross margins in Serq should be 50% and Focalin 100%
So, Q3 .. 1.8 + 2.4/2 = $3M to offset expenses ?? CF even ??
Samsa .. Will they be CF positive in q4 after 180 day exclusivity runs out?
Are earnings here real? Almost 10 cents EPS last Q and Q1 probably around 15 to 18 cents based on new ships launched late Q4 and early Q1 and that is with 30% production !!! And 70% to be released in 2017 ...
Is this for real or Chinese scam
Well if you are short or want to go short, then you consistent message .. if you are long or buying then inconsistent message
Are you long here, shirt or just
In sidelines ?
Interesting .. thanks ..
Is Rexista as dangerous as Endo that got slapped by FDA
Strange they did not announce it.
Typo last message
$5M/year run rate after all doses launched and after 180 day exclusivity expires .. i.e Q3 2017, going forward
Also , SEROQUEL XR net revenue Q3, going forward should be about $8M a year.
I don't want to talk about q1 and q2 due to one time 180 day exclusivity and staggered launch points
$5M/year run rate after all doses launched and after 180 day exclusivity expires .. i.e Q3 2017, going forward
Also , net revenue Q3, going forward should be about $8M a year
I don't want to talk about q1 and q2 due to one time 180 day exclusivity and staggered launch points
Expected net revenue
1- From PAR, after 180 day exclusivity expires and all generics launched ... $5M a year
2- For Serq, net revenue expected about $8M to $10M
$13M to $15M
PO is Purchase Order
I used it first and PO is Purchase Order. MNK has already placed its first PO.
What are your best estimates for
1-Serq revenue, cost of revenue, IPci mark up on cost of revenue and IPci share if profit share
2-royalty from PAR assuming all mg launched in Q3 and 180 day exclusivity expired
Presentation update today
MNK still planned May 1st. Means they have placed a PO for launch .. no surprises there
I thought something may have gone wrong there. Seems on track
Why do you think Glucophage is big value?
$590M was brand and genetics
Say generic take $300M split among 3 .. New player takes 10% or $30M a year sales with max profit of $7M a year
Peanuts
That is what I think .. Move them next door to Boeh Ingel and develop B531!.. Give us $50M . No compkaibs
Everything adds up except egg keep 3 scientists and a seasoned director of devices on staff .. None have the right experience for the new company ...
That means .. Neither part expects much cash to be generated from sale of legacy assets or settling the lawsuit .. That would mean, if q large cash comes in, it needs to be given to us as dividend so as not to mess up the deal