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And the way common is falling into the red. Would you infer that the settlement would be friendly to jrpfd and bad for common?
50/50 for $0 or $10 is a bet I would take all day given these low prices. Amazed we can’t even hold $1.50.
Average joes were very silent today. Wonder if they were the big guys on fnmas and fmckj, after the news on Friday.
Rick, after 10 years, you know the MM games. The court ruling is more of a catalyst for pfds than commons. Just look at their price action today.
Want to revisit this and make a new prediction now? I still stand by +/- .02
It is great to see some of the big AJ plan supports advocating for the preferred holder’s lawsuits now. The only catch is, with a settlement, the sweetener will be favorable conversion to common. Which means even more dilution after the warrants are exercised.
Just mms trapping people as the common will finish +/- .02 for the day
I thought you were completely against Berkowitz and his lawsuits? Did the recent development change your mind? It is great news for shareholders as it now gives litigating shareholders (pfd holders) pressure for the gov to settle.
FACT- his statement was correct.
Busy morning John.
They got swept.
I’m curious why some average joes hate the lawsuits when it caused the spike today?
Thank god for Berkowitz and these lawsuits. Finally putting some pressure on the government.
He is scaring everyone talking about as much as +5x return when common would never see $5 again. Not really sure what his tactic is.
This board is about the GSEs, not self promotion and self appreciation.
Ouch. Starting the day off with some decent size sells and a gap down. I was busy watching the Kav hearing yesterday so I assume the FHFA hearing didn’t go too well.
Wow, the MMs are holding us down so people can accumulate. So very nice of them. Hope everyone has their finger on the buy button, if they have any cash left after these 10 years.
The notion that any poster, who isn’t preaching for $300 per share, is a paid poster is ridiculous.
I say anyone who is preaching a triple digit share price is a paid common poster.
Is that how it works?
Maybe he saw the letter you have from the SEC stating the warrants are illegal. That would be 2 people in the world to see it. That could explain the decline.
That has to do more with his investment in Sears. The two are not tied together. If they were, Ackman, Paulson, TIAA Cref, Austin police pension fund, teacher funds and many others would be “junk”.
Here you go,
"Pershing Square says its preferred investment in Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC) now amounts to 21% of its total investment in the two GSEs.
The preferred stake is a hedge in case a Frannie resolution favors the preferred vs. the common shares, says Pershing."
And since we are trying to be fair, Bruce sells do to redemptions. Again there is no way commons can be worth anything and have pfds be worth nothing. Although pfds can be worth something while commons are worth nothing
The link is below in case you have not seen it before.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3341611-ackman-adds-preferred-bets-gses
Oh man, csp plus dilution plus conversion of pfds plus warrants.
Will we even own 5% of the company after this is all done with?
No wonder Ackman opened a pfd position to hedge his risky common bet. He must see the flashing neon lights.
I remember hearing the same thing about 2018. Do we just push it back a year every time it turns out false?
A decision by congress is not needed.
I was trying to “dumb” it down for the Lemmings although it appears they have all moved on.
I imagine this dismal volume will continue until tax loss selling begins. Would be a decent time to sell, wait a month to realize the loses, and then rebuy at a lower price.
I say yes. I think it is about 50/50 odds we either hit 0 or 10. Given the current S/P, statistically speaking, this is a good investment around $1.50.
So you want them to include all the NWS money?
If they do that, they would not hit the 10% moment and would still owe the government money.
I think he was alluding to Watt’s event now being a non factor with hardly any media coverage given that the Rosenstein and Kavanaugh events are also on Thursday.
All the nws money? They barely broke the 10% number. The money would not come close to being enough to recap.
This news will be buried as that is the same day Rosenstein is meeting with trump.
With Watt gone in a few months and the amount of time needed for an investigation, that statement is worthless IMO.
I just hope someone submitted the AJ plan to FHFA. My 13,000 common shares would look great at $1,000.
Why stop at $1,000? Make it $10,000.
Early morning dose of the average joes.
In which position does the government make more money?
Can we take this sticky down since the plan was suppose to be implement last February. No longer relevant.
The common tactic of proclaiming “you are a paid poster” for pointing out the inconsistencies of being able to achieve the administration’s wishes of being able to achieve recap thru just retained earnings and no dilution.
It is simple. The only way to do what the administration has publicly stated is thru dilution. That is why all the other “plans” fail. Just retained earnings will not be enough. The gov will not be writing a check to shareholders as they have won all court cases so far. Their only motivation to release and recap them is the warrants.
You can twist it however you want but taking care of the GSEs during this administration means getting it done by the end of the first term as a second term is not guaranteed. And the only way to do that is thru dilution as retained earnings will not be enough.
The problem is, those plans do not align with the administration’s previous statements so they are not workable.
Have any other plans met with the administration? Have the average joes presented their plan? Has the post card plan met with them?
The moelis plan is the only plan that has been presented to the gov that 1 is feasible and 2 fits with their statements of getting them recapitalized before the end of the first term is done.
One common misconception displayed here is that retained earnings and no dilution would be adequate. Retained earnings will take way too long and does not reflect prior administration statements.
This sticky needs to be removed. It is quite outdated and not relevant anymore.