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TSLA and AAPL are fighting the 3 day resistance, while FB on second super-strong day (could be "it") and AMZN look tired, yet FNGU shows strength (wonder who's creating it, can't be FB alone)
Meanwhile the OIL has obliterated the resistance and now climbing higher dollar by dollar !!!
The last and actually huge shoe to drop would be the Gold. They are suppressing it successfully until now. They will try any and every trick there is.
Once the Gold start running, the game, this game, is over.
I think that because the present US control (to manipulate) over the markets, that gold-shoe drop can only happen by fundamentals.
Like when actually demand for assets and Gold (the ultimate asset) start gaining momentum to the upside, then the fed and gang and whoever president happens to be will all be powerless spectators of the tumbling American life and a hyperbolic stock market (an asset) which will help nobody as the store of value need will trump the gaining need.
Too high ATR increases premium so risk of losing (and losing big) if position is wrong and/or the price takes even a slight calming.
Too low ATR (like now) is bad as while the premium is nice and low, the price of underlying SPY moves so minimum (I call it "like under the profit-line radar"), that any overnight gain is bellow the decay. So it's almost useless and outright stupid to try using options for trading swings or holding longer as the advance in SPY will be neutralized by the decay while you carry the risk.
And as you advance the decay curve grows against you so more and more decay day by day.
This game played by the rulers explains the nearly linear moves in SPY - which I call in one word , "speed" (I think it defines the whole thing)
The work around would be daytrading. But as we know it, the rulers closed that door as well by making sure most of the moves as pitiful as they been happening OUTSIDE the trading hours, so nearly nobody that is an insider profits in any way (unless you become extremely modest and trade the ETF itself).
There is one more workaround and I have been posting about it few times recently - "the juicy trades".
In other words, WAIT very very VERY patiently for a price spasm and fish that, a spasm down to a support which has more meat on the bone, and don't do nothing in between, and close that position as soon as you see ST resistance, and wait for the next opp.
This way is still good, but those opp are rather rare understandably.
It's perfectly logic, and has benefits like making you calmer, and opening up more time for your life, while still being in the game.
That's what I been trying doing myself
It doesn't have merit re reliability - open vs in reverse of prior 30min close.
Last 21 days barely 7 cases. I think it was coincidental.
I noticed time of tagging support is critical. The idea came to me because the myth going around that retail are morning traders and big money is late in the afternoon.
My work panned out ok, but still not that reliable. But being above 50% reliability I do pay attention when I remember.. I do tend to forget.
I tend to look there when I try to determine if I should hold overnight or not, it helps the coin flip
I think the myth has something to it, not entirely bs
Not juicy charts my friend, but juicy Trades ...FROM charts
For example, you see a potential for breakout, then you look for weakening resistance, then upon breach of resistance you buy that. But you have WWWWAAAAAIIIIITTTTTTT , that's the tricky part2
Trick part1 is strongly dependable on your charting ability, and is always buy support, always sell resistance, ignore in-between Russian roulette churn
live well
gotta go
cy
Today is profit taking day. It doesn't mean selloff by any stretch of imagination.
This is like a beacon on the chart.
Usually if it's more upside the big money stay put for the most part, even add to their position on the dip. So if the profit taking keeps going then it's more than that..
This is part of charting
Profit trading days CAN be lucrative for puts, but if there is more upside then big money buys the dip and you can see puts in red.
So buy puts at resistance (only) and sell them at support (don't hesitate)
And of course, but the dip
Yes I am sure you can trade SPY options in your Canadian account.
Go do some investigative work, go talk to FEW Canadian brokers (not just one), I'm sure you'll figure it out.
Trading futures though is harder for Canadians I believe. But just stick to options for now, it's close enough.
Look, I didn't say anything about "breaking out" charts. You do.
I don't trade breaking out charts. By extension I don't search for them. So I have nothing to offer.
Did I study? Yes. As a serious chartist I did study breakouts. I even traded some. But it's not something I really like. It's a lot of gambling in there , too much for my taste.
I was referring to trades that has a lot of potential and they are LITERALLY in any chart. Specifically the trades where you buy support.
Since I don't do breakouts I did not refer to that, but if you think (for yourself) that that's a juicy trade, then by all means look for them.
Quote: "I just did this just to look and see if I can look at something...other than the unreliable Max Pain to get a gauge of options"
Here is another thing that seems promising (I myself studied it but only on/for QQQ), the "pay" structure.
I have not done OI work, so I can not tell anything on its performance, but sounds interesting.
Now "pay" structure is like a cousin to your OI work.
The concept I had was that options are bought, calls and puts, and one side will win and one side will lose, and since the big money is involved where money is, then the winning side should be the big money side.
From here I had to look at how they get paid and how the pay goes from OEX to OEX. I mapped it pretty well. It was a very long process. But it was very pleasant. There is a redneck on this board that apparently did similar work and presented it numerous times, but yet nobody gets it which is funny really. I won't name the redneck.
That direction is a valid direction IMO.
I never had time to resume, much less bring that work over to SPY, which is sad thing. I am SOOO to busy. I realize now that your work in OI , this concept, is likely to be very helpful to that work, I feel it, I sense it, only that I can't figure out yet how or what to insert.
My work on OEX is pretty abstract (which adds to its beauty) , it is comprised of if/then abstract lines with OEX cutoff (or "zero") points.
I noticed a strong relationship once I looked in that direction. This work I done nearly 10 years ago, and I was home a lot of time, so plenty of time which now it's a luxury.
I thought corona will bring time, it didn't, I'm deemed essential, only snatched 2 weeks at the march peak then was rushed back at work. That totally good, no complains, I like working, it's active and healthy.
Good thinking and direction, so keep doing what you are doing.
Hi, "Finding charts" ?! Who are you kidding. Just choose what you like and go to the chart/s of that. ALL charts are good and trading off them is under the same "juicy trades" rule.
On SPY and options (and other US equity likely), you fell behind. You CAN trade (BUY) SPY options in Canadian account and RRSP account/s.
Let's say you have $50,000 CDN$ - from it you can buy $3,000 USD worth of SPY options. Meaning you either borrowed the USD funds or exchanged. If the setup is exchanged, then upon selling the funds will remain in USD side of account (RRSP including) , otherwise it all reverts to CDN$.
And it seems there are also some Canadian ETFs tracking SPY, like XSP on TSX, just do your research.
If you are new to options just start with 1 (ONE) option until you learn WELL how it goes. And don't buy cheap 1-3 days expiration but minimum 2 weeks if not 2 months out so you have time to ride the waves and swings and not be kicked out if it expires.
As for if to buy ATM or OTM or ITM, it's too much talk, just do your own research.
But if you get it right, if you are a good chartist, then you can get millionaire with options as it has one of the highest potential out there.
Look, swing is comprised of legs. Yes, not much up down recently, but you can still take a direction as per trend and go about your work. This is using a strategy. (you need to develop)
I am very busy myself, nearly no time to watch, lost good profit sometimes as SPY turned against me while I was busy driving or with people, but I do trade.
I take a position, then if it drops I buy another and so on, withing reason. Just develop a strategy, and you don't have to be always watching. Most everybody can take a 5min here and there (even longer) to check on the trade. I keep my phone closed but it's opened with chart and browser so when I have a min I open it in a sec literally and I peek and even trade as it's always open. I have a cover that automatically close or open my phone. I made my setting so I can have the phone as readily as possible.
Even on the hwy I can peak at a chart on my phone on the holder, chart that I deem more important at the time prior to trip and open up, but I most of the time just have a peak and switch to podcasts and music and almost ignore SPY (very boring a lot of times).
It's totally doable, not the same as being home and hands on with a big screen monitor, but decently doable. You can also take smaller positions so if things are bad is not that big of a deal but enough for some diner, gas, and steak ;)
Doable
I'm thinking that using ALL available strikes could skew your picture.
I think that if you limit your calculations to monthly ATR bracket where most of interest is , then the numbers should be more telling.
IMO the monthly ATR is about $10 so let's say +/- $10 (so $20), so either $20 around ATM or $10, take your pick.
You are right that we need historical data to get to any conclusions.
Then that historical data made into a chart and over SPY chart for better visualization.
I see a problem but only if you try to collect only OTM data: As price moves some of the OTM will cross into ATM.
Thanks for the work
summer doldrums lows until November rally
LOL
This is actually the good times, the beautiful..
All making money, free money for all..
The ugly will be later when the piper comes, just like it came for others in the past..
Make as much money as you can now
There are few troubling issues in that article.
It says that from February market peak to March low, shorts had $375bn paper gains.
Why saying "paper"? It implies nobody and none were cashed. So $375bn just sat there and no one, nobody cared to cash it out? I find that preposterous, so I deduct it's a lie.
Then it says that stocks rebounded 50%+ re S&P 500, ..... and losses on shorts since March lows are now $383.5bn ???!!!. This is also preposterous.
This calls first paragraph/statement a lie, as implies those shorts were in fact closed and profit taken, not just "on paper". And implies that those shorts that closed immediately put same money right back to buy back new shorts at that same low and those shorts are now under water same amount??!!!. It's all a lie imo as it doesn't make any sense.
If shorts held the positions from February to now they will be at worst just break even. But nobody let $375bn go to waste.
And all this is ... "according to S3 Partners, a data provider"
Sounds like M6 from James Bond
Which is not far fetched as all this is ... by unscrupulous GS
But then a question arises ... what's the purpose of the article ... ???!!!
Juicy trades are trades that have bigger profit potential in case you get it right.
Quote: "Juicy trades ONLY.....That's what one should look for (it's FINDING them that's the hard part).
Yep, if I was a programmer that's ALL I'd be trading - juicy trades (I'd tell the program to seek things like this)"
Finding them it's not "the hard part" ... as you don't have to "find" them.
They are in the chart, always. You need to stay put, exercise patience, and ..... WAIT FOR WHAT YOU LIKE !!!
Waiting can be oftentimes unnerving, but you make peace with yourself that you DO WAIT.
It's like hunting say a bear. You stay put and wait for a bear to cross your hiding spot. You don't shoot at anything else.
In your HECLA chart bellow, one would wait for a low of cycle and nothing else. It takes a long time, but the pay is big and the risk is low , ... and you also get a life as you don't have to be glued to computer for petty pennies trades.
Alternatively you put few stocks on the waiting list for Juicy trades.
This is an example. For SPY I wait for some pivots that I believe will pay me more than regular. This is the concept.
How you determine cheap?
Simple. It's relative.
A same vanilla ice creem can be 1$ or in a different circumstance 5$.
Beer same.
Even charting services (paid subscription).
I look at the intrinsic value to determine premium. Easiest is ATM as it's zero, so anything above , the entire cost it's premium.
Same for OTM.
So they charge say OTM 10$ for november, but in higher volatility it can go 15$ or even 20$ , so you can see it's cheap so to speak, as it won't go much lower than 10$, that's the bottom price.
It's just an example.
No matter what you would buy it got to be cheaper now than after some market action starts.
That was the point
But you don't buy so why matters
lots of intraday gaps, no liquidity
regardless if gap is down or up, no liquidity usually means no buyers
But I'm not playing for pennies, I can take my time, patiently, and then some
Waiting for juicy trades
ONLY
I need a support break to make my move
resistance holds
support holds
1 against 1
if support breaks, then I'll have resistance AND support break , so 2 against 0 , the way it should be
I'll pay a lil extra but that's ok
..The "missed" decay until then should probably compensate for that Lol
9 days in tight range at ATH
I'm thinking buying some cheap November puts
with all this flatness they are the cheapest you can get
After some plunge the premiums will get prohibitive
imo ... 2 tier game
and insiders to position "under the table"
Quite few times I wanted to buy a pivot and it was only reached in the futures not the money
Yes, the myth goes that "election uncertainty" makes the market volatile, sideways, up until the election, then after election when uncertainty is lifted the market rally.
The only uncertainty I see is if the longs make another +1% gain or another +5% gain
so far
"daily swing" huh, that's a new one ;)
P/C ratio says market is at a MAJOR top
But it's not a timer.
Timing it it's another story
Level is not a problem
Feb highs and Aug highs are prime material for throwing money on betting on top
Failing to close the month above Feb should be helpful as well.
But even if it does close above Feb to flush out top-betters it still can correct quite dramatically , even more so since everyone will be bullish and high-fiving and more complacent than ever
Trump had zero chance all laughed. I remember!
Biden has zero chance now they laugh...
Now Biden stated that he's going after fat cats with taxes and whatnot , WallStreet fatcats too...
I don't like this BS manipulation but I don't like THAT either should it happen, but post-elected are known to backpedal on promises.. Electorate is just dumb believing.
But if Biden wins and it should happen he says "I'm too old, WTF, nothing to lose personally" and punches the fatcats then we'll be in for a very very interesting market and chart.
No matter who wins I see inflation and SPY higher due to inflation alone. If money gets doubled so SPY and any other asset and cost of life, it's economics 101.
Inflation Tax coming to bite all the daydreamers' heads off
don't tell yourself what's needed, that's a mental trap, it will put a bias in your mind and you will not be neutral anymore.
Only profit and money is the point and focus (I add safety for myself)
Actually it's exactly the gut feeling that gets a technical trader in trouble.
The indicator says sell but the eyes see that the market is green, so gut feeling collude with the indicator.
It's the contradiction the problem, too many "know it all" messing with the mind.
Using technical one has to kick the gut feeling away. Or just use the gut feeling if that's what's working.
Mixing the 2 is trouble.
I feel the gut feeling like everyone else, but I let the chart dictate me what I actually do.
The gut feeling I tend to use is actually also technical, it's looking at the market and feel and think out-loud... "where did I see this before..." (A: "in such and such circumstance and this and that happened")
But I find that while gut feeling works sometimes, it's the technical side that works more reliably.
For example if the market is making my gut feeling sell sell sell, but technically it's a buy the dip, then that's what I have to do even tho I may feel unhappy to do so because it would hurt the "feeling" of "somebody" Lol
I made a rule for myself to not "beg". I want to be a man, to be in control, not to be dictated conditions.
So to that end I close my position inside trading day, regardless if I think/feel price can run further in AH.
I do trade AH but because certain circumstances, and really really REALLY rarely.
One thing I would do in AH and is NOT begging, is ENTERING a position. THiS can happen more often for me. Why? The reason is that sometimes I NEED to see the closing before deciding to buy. But then I'm finding myself in AH. And is not begging as I usually hit the ask.
Buying at bid side is begging, but it's ok in intraday .... but I lost few great trades that way, so I said screw this sht, if I like a trade just go and pay and buy the ask. If I find it unpalatable to buy the ask then the trade is a lemon for me, something stupid mistake so better stay away.
it goes without saying that closing a position I also prefer to hit the bid - unless I believe price will go higher, then I plant my position on the waiting side (ask).
Last trade I was waiting and waiting and waiting, got tired at bid ... which went bellow me yet my buy order was not filled, so I said fk it, so I modified my order and hit the ask and that was it. But I closed the position stubbornly placed at ask (begging) as I knew price (of puts) will go higher a bit (before collapsing).
It's every time a little different, but common theme for me is I want to be filled so generally I don't care to beg but pay whatever the market says.
That's just me (maybe).
Vaccines have problems. My sister died from vaccine which was supposed to immunize. Many others died.
The virus itself it's not a vaccine, it's the real thing, and immunization from it itself is the real deal.
In Europe at least until late 1900's it's been a common procedure to get the children infected ON PURPOSE with some child diseases so "to get over it". If someone had a sick child, then all mothers around would bring their children asap to play with the infected child. Not all the diseases regarded this way, but still, so it's not my own idea about this being a way to solve some diseases and maybe this corona.
The problem I see is the relatively short lived immune period.
To overcome that then mass immunization need to be implemented, ideally all at once (in few days), just like voting - I see this as a patriotic thing.
... Then maybe when it's over to not accept foreigners from countries that did not immunized all their citizens.
We can solve this
An unexpected violent move can happen at any time
Don't say it will
But can
Like hitting a nerve
Or like a plane stalling because angle and altitude and speed
THAT is a juicy move you want to trade
thank you for the information update
some places RE-think the reopening of some schools even as new normal
I was thinking that if we let this take its course (let infect as many as possible), and keep a percentage of hospitals dedicated for other stuff, then herd immunity will take care of this
I was thinking why not actually infect on purpose everyone (except bubbles like say old care) so we get over it.
My son said "what if someone you care about dies?"
I replied, "well, if that someone dies it will die anyway, so why prolonging the inevitable and live in agony".
So give everyone vitamins and zinc or whatever , make them strongest as possible, then hit the virus head on..
Just a long time thought I think has merit
(alternatively, create a virus WEAK that is similar, infect everyone with that AT ONCE, so the body get immune to that and then can fight with those antibodies this corona)
I made yesterday for 2 weeks
so I don't have to trade BS days and penny "opportunity"
I can sit back, relax, and watch, and wait for a juicy setup :)
Let the Russian-roulette traders play with the SPY tampered gun for pennies ...
I see big dumps on bid, but it's BS imo
Why I think it's BS?
Because the volume. The volume is small, no pulse..
But it's interesting to see that nevertheless
Everyone is looking at 340.ooooooo
If most (keyword) are longs, thinking "I'm gonna sell my positions there", then the thugs will take the market down to low 330.....
If most are "wanna short there" type of pending guys, then the goons will dance a teasing sexy hard to get dance and then baaammm, go way over 340 trapping those guys....
We know 340, we know "most" wanna do something, but we don't know who those "most" are
I don't see a run today, momo too weak.
And I don't see a selloff showing so then more premium burn?
I guess as long as Gold is even a little red the thugs think there is time still to play crooked
Time is running out and red in Gold is becoming as rare as red in SPY has been
I'm waiting for (but not looking forward to) 100$+++ days in Gold worldwide hysteria
IMO SPY won't selloff as in the end it's an asset but the value in real terms value will be stagnant at best.
In other words we make 100$ we then go to buy a bread
next time we make 200$ and go buy same bread
But SPY will be up 200$ boo hoo
an astute serious trader should notice what I missed in my post in regard to present trading
I won't say what it is
I'll leave it as a test of your aptitude as serious trader
Hint: it's a rather simple basic thing (hence I leave it as a test for whoever appreciate intellectual tests)
(I just realized I missed mentioning it while mulling over the chart and wondering what I could possible do, so unintentional miss - I realized it while I was re-testing some old stuff which almost forced me to look there - I had a "WTF" moment)
Technical-> Yesterday resistance was violated. This means shorting (puts) is not a safe bet.
The candlesticks are small (and smaller) which show lack of conviction. Things can turn on a dime.
Affecting trading -> small ATR lowered the options' premiums down to near bare bone levels. This is good for trading intraday mostly as percentage-wise you can bang big risking the least.
On the flip-side the decay can easily overcome the delta , meaning holding a position multi-day won't bring much profit if any.
TO overcome this situation, those insisting on trading multi-day should trade deeper ITM and longer OEX thus incurring least decay (but forking lots more capital thus less percentage-wise ROI)
So small ATR you should concentrate on daytrades, and having a plan-B trade (punch2) in case price drops a bit more. Prices are small.
If ATR increases to more normal then prices are higher, but deltas remain positive over decay so you can go to swings (daytrading also OK, it's actually always OK).
If ATR goes Big, then it's same like in small ATR only worse because now you risk biggest capital. On the flip-side if you trade correctly this brings the biggest ROI esp in daytrading and selling of options.
Now we're in small ATR phase. Daytrading is safest bet, and cheapest. If trade doesn't work you get out with minimal tears.
And safest is calls since resistance keeps being violated.
To add to your odds buy a seen and recent support - it's really basic stuff.
My trade yesterday was good, profitable, but an anomaly (puts that is) as I could only do it because resistance held.
Today is different, I won't put money on puts (TODAY, as tomorrow who know how the landscape looks).
Support to buy as we speak (non rigid nrs): 337.5 337.8 ...339.07 but this one depending on this morning if is very strong, otherwise is a pass
Higher support is possible to be built and used, but the problem with that is that the small ATR won't leave much room for trading new support especially if it's higher (for daytrading that is).
My own advice (I hope I can always follow): be patient and wait for the trade you (would really) like. Go into the day expecting that that opportunity may not come and therefore you will NOT trade.
Last week I did follow my own advice. I made only 2 trades. Both extremely profitable. In both I gave the money back. On second trade I was busy with customers in a critical 15min loop so is life of trader that is not available to trade.. I trade with handicaps like that. So this week I waited and made so far ONE trade.
The bottom line is exactly that - not to trade but to have the bottom line (green that is)
(I also invest in gold, but that's not trading but accumulating positions so ATR and all this sht doesn't apply --- except for the patience -- I am patient to add as I only been adding in corrections not in excitement --> BTW I read grandpa Warren Buffett just bought Barrick gold worth 500 million $$$ ???!!! ---> Until now he "HATED" Gold!!! Usually he is wrong if any at most in short term!!! So he KNOWS that HUGE RAMPANT HYPERINFLATION IS BROUGHT TO US thanks to the elite, and also thanks to that elite likely all this will likely finally have destroyed this game and American dollar and by extension American life as we knew it. But 500mill sounds to me more like a hedge, not a doom scenario safe heaven investment. But he also can't possible know everything. But still, an 180 in Gold AND disclosed - no choice actually)
word of advice Morphius, you might not like it, ... consider money you put on the table as sacrificed money!
It must be that way.
It's like a bullet you shoot. It cost money, but will it hit anything?
If it doesn't you lost the cost of the bullet.
Knockout is not just one punch. Only in exceptions. Knockout takes multiple hits.
My point is that you need to put sacrifice positions at different levels and with different conditions, just like punches, then you get the knockout.
Sometimes you get good opps, but that's not often.
Today I got a lesson too, to be insensitive about my own position.
Being sensitive prevented me to double my performance.
it's not easy
Once ???!!!
I literally don't know my number..
I have bite marks all over my dear Asus.. Lol
speaking of "chicken out"
One of my observations is that sometimes trades go from green to red.
I looked at this phenomenon and I feel that is a personal capacity thing. I've done a little work on it, just a little really as I have no time. But it's like each of us has a personal maximization. Therefore it is something individual and every person should do his own evaluation.
So for example if I take a trade I would reach 0.2 profit per OPTION on daytrade after which odds are high to give it back. Multi-day trades could be $3 before plateauing. These are just conceptual examples.
It was easy for me to see this from totals as I tend to use same quantity in my trading (and I think many do too) so say at $400 I'd know my personal potential is stretched.
It's like a charting of personal ability (and/or luck).
So when nearing my personal potential in profit I better be rational, kick away the greed and day-dreaming and close the position.
I think chickening out is our instinctual feel for nearing or reaching these limits.
I'm happy for you.
You deserve it. I like you. You are sincere regular good guy folk. Not many like you.
Bought tom exp at 339. I noticed premiums won't go lower, no selling there... But that wasn't the reason I bought, but helped calm my nerves..
I closed my put 3 bager (almost) at 336.8 area. Reason is too close to the some trampoline algos and just like you I need to eat.
Now I may even go long Lol given the right combo. Problem is the high SPY altitude, so maybe wait for a downleg before thinking about thinking that..
Intraday tho Long is not a prob.
it looks like a potential for an engulfing bearish day potential here..
But I could not hold my POS puts with huge decay, maybe something else.
Still mulling, many trades available.
All the best.
Going to work happy clam today.
squeezing the last drops from the lemon?
... this is the OEX week.....
oh, the audacity
Hero or zero
Let's not blink here boys
Let's sacrifice some dollars and go fishing in SPY pool
SPY rules