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OK, it's the end of the month.
Time to see how accurate those end of month predictions are for PPS.
Here's one:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=91125303
They are not new products first of all.
Yes, in 2005 they did just under $1M for Snorenz.
In the 2 years that followed they ramped up international sales and went much higher.
Real sales last quarter, not counting deferred revenue from distribution deals, were $153k, and that included the 2 new products, so it has only scratched the surface of what it could do, The new products haven't even been advertised yet, and the the "fulfilled by Amazon" sales weren't even in last quarter's total, so that total should go up.
Once they get 5 products going, and full distribution, they should be able to exceed their previous annual sales, no problem. So, $3M in "realized" annual sales should not be difficult for them to achieve, and would represent a 5-fold increase in current quarterly sales, leading to a 5-fold increase from current share prices, at least. I believe they can go much higher than that in sales and share price.
The current share price assumes that none of the possible future helpful events will happen, and that they'll just continue to sell $150k to $200k per quarter of non-deferred revenue, with unaudited financials, a chill, and all that. If ANYTHING good happens, the share price should go up.
I stopped trusting his posts long ago.
Great observation.
And now, another 11 hours later, it's up to 116 likes and 3 shares.
This is way beyond what they were getting in July.
I think way too much effort has been put Into this model stuff. The idea that they would have any true impact whatsoever on the company is hard to grasp.
Quite confused by what you're saying:
J1, You don't want to reply on the ROI on this model deal DA is selling? I think it could be just more smoke and mirrors….just keeping the carrot out there for those pumping cash into BRAV and his deals.. Again great idea.. Just do it.. This is retailing 101. Not that big of deal.. IMO
I'm hoping it was the BIG shipment Nick said he was having prepared.
When Amazon has more in stock, they promote the product more, and sales go faster.
Thanks for digging that up.
All retailers have models.. Hell Wal-Mart uses family members of their workers for model s and they are doing alright
Let’s say what you said you saw/heard is true and the VS models have a problem with their speaking ability.. I think the company operation reputation shows that the dummy models are not really hurting the sales or its reputation.
IMO 150M shares is a big chunk bought back by the company based on the current SS. I believe they have bought back at least that based on the volume of the past 4 months trading. It is half the volume of the first four months this year.
Hey, that was a 12 year old news story. Nick was nowhere near the company at that time.
There's a 10 year gap between that story and when Nick came aboard.
As I think about it more, maybe the "meet the model" idea will work in this context.
As a man, I might be a "private" fan of a Victoria's Secret model, but not want to show that in public, especially around certain people. The same might even be true for many women.
However, I've seen certain models on women's fashion sites like ideeli that I liked even better than VS, and I wouldn't be as worried about publicly showing fandom of such a model. So, perhaps there's a niche there that lets VivaVuva do some things that Victoria's Secret can't do, where their models are out at events meeting people and doing PR for the company, or giving tips on modeling, as Danny said.
I like that he said he wants a good level of intelligence with his models, since they'll be out there meeting people and representing the company. I heard one of the VS models interviewed once, and it became clear that intelligence, or perhaps just speaking ability, was not a priority for VS models. So it seems to me that Danny understands the differences, and where he can take advantage of that.
The strategy with the models sounds good, and I believe Danny has the ability to execute it, but it still comes down to execution, as well as the potential of the plan.
He often compared his plan to Victoria's Secret, and I believe there are some similarities, but there are some essential differences. Victoria's Secret is different from other women's fashion because men like to look at their catalogs as much as women, and for different reasons. Women are looking to buy product, while men are looking because it's halfway between a fashion catalog and a Playboy magazine. I believe it's that latter factor which makes some of the models into household names.
I don't think that same level of fame can be achieved with just a women's fashion website, even if some of the products are somewhat sexy, as the whole thing has to be more "wholesome", as it's mostly clothing that will be seen in public, not private. Danny even talked about developing the models into role models for younger women and girls who want to get into modeling. But perhaps that just shows that Danny already UNDERSTANDS that this is fundamentally different from Victoria's Secret, in that he seems to be ready to promote the models more to women than to men.
I'm just wondering if the potential for that is high enough for it to work. We'll see.
Most of them were NOT promises, and most of them are coming true!
Well, yes, it just shows that his mistake is that he announces things before he's sure they'll happen, but we already knew that about him. Yes, it annoys me, too.
What I LIKE is that he doesn't let that dissuade him from changing his mind if he comes to realize that it's best for the business to change plans.
He is good at reading situations and reacting in ways that benefit the business. He is not afraid of change.
Actually, the call was only about 25 minutes.
Also, when we're told it's a strategy update, I don't expect numbers. I expect discussion of strategy, and that's exactly what we got.
Numbers will come in the quarterly calls.
Beezerr, geez, I was thinking the same things, and about to write up my own reply saying the same stuff, but you saved me the trouble.
Making projections on revenue 6 to 10 quarters out is suicide for a CEO. The most any company should provide guidance for is the CURRENT quarter, and MAYBE the current fiscal year, but even that is for more established companies with more predictable revenues.
I also think, for DANNY, this is his sweet spot. This kind of model search and generating of media buzz is what excites him, and gets him motivated each morning. If he sticks to the nuts and bolts of retail clothing logistics, he'll get bored and perform worse over time.
This is what he's good at, and what excites him and a lot of the people around him. Do what you're good at, and the money will follow. I expect this to go very well. We just need some patience. It'll take at least a year for it to really get going. By December 2014, a lot more people should know about Bravada.
there will be a VivaVuva girl/model contest...contract....etc...etc...
Yes, cancelled because, as Danny said, the exposure was low, just a one-time run, and he learned that for the same production cost and expense, they could get 20 times as much exposure from doing their own national advertising campaign, which is exactly what they're going to do.
There's another example: best arguments against MDIN are 2 year old scandals involving a financing company they were involved with, but it was the financing company that was up to no good, not MDIN, other than a mistake in judgement in doing business with NIR.
2 year old news is not very convincing.
Guilt by association is not very convincing.
On the positive side, clearly verifiable, increasing sales on Amazon are convincing.
Patent deal where Celprogen took stock instead of cash for the rights to their patent are convincing.
Again, they don't have 13 million in online sales. Nobody is saying that.
They have 13 million in agreements with distributors.
They had $153k in actual sales last quarter, most through their own website. Only a fraction of that was through Amazon. So, 19 reviews is entirely believable.
They're probably now getting more sales through Amazon this quarter, since the "fulfillment by Amazon" started in the early part of this quarter.
The number of new reviews has increased since "fulfillment by Amazon" started. It sat at 15 reviews for many months. It has jumped up to 19 in just a few weeks.
Now, as we can all see, Amazon is selling them faster than they can keep them stocked. This is a great problem to have.
Wow, same day they got a shipment in to Amazon, and they're already running out again.
It was probably a small shipment, one of those "tide me over" shipments until they can get the big batch ready.
But still, what would a small shipment be? 100?
Just another example of misinterpretation.
Most of the time when you hear about "Nick breaking a promise", it was never a promise in the first place.
No promise of a dividend was ever made. Not even close.
Seems a little off with such a low float, high volumes day after day,
But if you look at all those "promises", he delivered on all of them.
He has promised that certain things would happen, but not promised WHEN.
I don't think there are any grounds for a lawsuit against MDIN. Sure, they've said things that could be easily misinterpreted, and may be labelled misleading, but none of them have been lies. There's a difference.
Just made some nice gains on NOAH puts (just closed that and took a long position) and TASR calls. Going for a little more runup on TASR.
Just starting to see gains on my SSH puts. I expect a lot more room left to run on those.
Just trading regular options, not weeklies. What's a good broker for weeklies?
Yes, they do need a lot more than 18 units to get big revenues.
That's why the "18 left in stock" just changed back to "In Stock" this morning, meaning a new shipment just reached Amazon, so Amazon will start promoting it more again while inventory is high, and the sales rate (and rank) will go up again.
That's why there are already at least 2 other ways that people can buy online (more if you count various reseller sites we've found), and more ways coming soon (walgreens.com, drugstore.com, and more).
That's why they're already selling 2 other products, with 2 more on the way in the short term, and another 2 more longer term.
You're right, they never claimed to have made 16 million.
Their "deferred revenue" distribution deals total only 13 million.
Their actual sales for last quarter were $153k. That amount does make sense.
But you didn't give us your opinion. I thought you were all about your opinion.
Ugh! The Alexa/Amazon web services thing only gives historical data, and won't give anything for days where the site is ranked > 100,000 , meaning most of the time, except at the peak of busy season.
The only way to get reach and pageview info is to buy an Alexa Pro subscription for $10 a month, for which I get way more than I need, since it gives all kind of advice on how to optimize your own website. I just want traffic info, not ways to optimize a website!
My only hope is that MAYBE the historical info will be given for the latest day, even when the rank is not < 100k.
Did somebody tell you that flattery will get you far?
Kinda in a daze with the more limited Alexa. They took away free "reach" and "pageview" info! I'm a numbers junkie, and they've yanked my numbers from me. Cold turkey! Withdrawal!
I'll probably just do the 30 day "Alexa Pro" trial until I can figure out that "amazon web services" download thing.
Well, at least you could tell your wife you invited people!
Hope it was fun.
Yes, his preferred shares do have super voting rights, in fact, I mentioned exactly that.
But I did make a mistake. I said he got another 100 million votes from those preferred shares. I was off by a factor of 10.
He exchanged 100 million common shares for 2 million preferred, so I'd assumed that the voting rights of the preferred matched the voting rights of the 100 mil he turned in, but actually, he gets 500 votes per preferred share, not just 50, so they give him 1 billion votes.
So, yeah, you're right. He shouldn't have to worry.
Yeah, we've been over that before.
There are terms in the agreement which restrict when it can be paid back.
It's a poison pill put in to keep new owners from firing Nick and Ray. Keep in mind that Celprogen owns over half the shares in the company right now, although their shares are restricted.
Even with Nick's extra 100 million in voting rights from the preferred shares, Celprogen is close to 50% of the votes, and could easily buy enough off the market to get over 50% of the votes.
Without that loan, the chance is much more real that Nick and Ray could get booted out without much of any reward for the effort they've put into the company.
I'm kind of annoyed that on Friday, Alexa took away the "reach" and "pageview %" numbers from public view, which I use to help predict BRAV revenues each quarter.
You now have to pay to get anything more than 3 month world rank and 1 month US rank.
There is something called "Amazon Web Services" through which you can download historical Alexa data for low prices. I'm trying to figure out how to use that to get reach and pageview. If anyone has figured it out, please PM me to help me get it going myself.
Yes, I've seen that email. It's good to see him say the money is sitting in the bank.
However, I caution people that his example is, as he said, "made up". It's a case where you should take those timeframe numbers and multiply them by at least 10 to get more realistic timeframes.
In other words, instead of recognizing a small amount of revenue "now", then more after 6 days then 14 days, and so on, it's probably closer to reality to say "now, then 60 days, then 140 days, etc."
I would actually guess it's more realistic that they'll use multiples of 30 days, such as "90, 150, 210, 270, 360".
Reachin, buddy. Reachin hard.
This is why I stated my theory about a week ago that the distribution agreements (where the deferred revenue comes from) probably pay only SOME of the revenue up front, and they probably only ship a fraction of the eventual product up front.
It's just more logistically and financially feasible that way, and less risk for both sides, since the product is returnable, and there are costs associated with shipping and re-use.
they all have hidden shares in a desk somewhere,