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Too bad he does not apologize to the IWDM shareholders in the same way.
http://soundcloud.com/edwardryan/bubba
His voice reeks of desperation...
Looks like IWDM now has to compete with the car makers.
If internet radio in the car is the future, and the car companies can create their own streams that is not good for IWDM. Seems the barrier to entry of the internet radio business is awfully low.
The rumors are coming from here. No prop desks even the penny pushing ones have IWDM on their radar to start the rumors. Once there is a dilution the new investors will hire a trading desk to generate rumors and generate the pump.
Counter Point - Also please note I cannot respond to Private Messages with my basic account.
1. Michaels has been rumored since February...Lets put this one to bed once and for all. In May I believe it was it was stated here that the deal was done and the only hold up was insurance. Well it is now mid August, so if there ever was a deal it is dead. IWDM will have nothing to do with Randy Michaels.
2. IO for business is not exploding. If you back out early enlistment money qtr over qtr there is little to no revenue growth for IWDM as a whole, so therefore IO 4 business is not exploding.
3. Penny stocks dont do mega deals, the intel is flawed. We were supposed to get 8-10 PR's around april 15th, that did not happen, then May 15th, then June, then July and so on and so forth.
4. Alex Edwards still owns massive amounts of stock. So what difference does it make. The stock has declined over 20% since Stanton left, so how does this increase shareholder value at IWDM.
My crystal ball says those points would be something like
1. TIght clean share structure
2. Randy Michaels and new management
3. IO for business is going into every single subway on earth.
The only accumulation is market makers buying stock to cover the orders they have to fill.
There must not be any smart money left in IWDM, since there is no accumulation going on.
The big blocks come on the Bid and not the ask. In fact there has not been a 100,000 share block in months. There is no sustainable move for a company that has very little cash and a problem with out of control expenses.
I would love to see some solid evidence of a sustainable move but there is none.
A move like that wont happen again and here is why:
1. IWDM has since then burned a lot of shareholders so if they get near .20-.30 many who got burned in the .50 - .68 range will dump.
2. There was a captive audience of about 2800 people who live and die by Bubbas word who loaded up on that run. There is no longer willing parties who will throw new cash at IWDM.
3. Bubba is hands down the biggest thing that will happen to IWDM, so any new catalyst will not have the same power as before.
4. There was no doubt in anyones mind during the first pump and dump, now the second pump and dump is never as powerful, there are more skeptics, especially those that were burned the first time around.
5. Bubba's show was coming off of strength, they were on several terrestrial stations, and sirius before the run up. The world was the shows oyster. Currently they are on 3 stations I think, no sirius, and they have no mouthpiece.
6. Early Enlistment was the peak for IWDM. People were duped into buying 3 years of something that they can get in some form or another for free. Not every listener is die hard bubba army. If they can get the terrestrial show for free through radio stations websites, and the free channel on IO then they will not pay for it. Everyone including Bubba grossly overestimates how many serious Bubba Army there is. I would say that 90% of Bubba Army probably bought the EE so in total there is 3500 or so serious Bubba Army out there.
7. Investors have now got a serious look at the IWDM books, the last run up there were no financials available and people bought in with blind faith. Expenses and cash flow are major issues, these are facts and not rumors, they are burning through cash and will be broke come November without a major capital raise. Expenses are out of control, and you dont see any new value from January until now, but you do see a large increase in expenses. What have those expenses been for?
8. Bubba's show has gotten progressively worse over time. It is basically an infomercial with some parody elements.
9. The Share structure of IWDM has changed since the last run up. During the run to .68 the outstanding shares were around 110 million, they now sit at 133 million. At the high of .68 IWDM had an astronomically high market cap of $74 million. Now with 133 million shares to reach that market cap IWDM only needs to trade at .55.
10. Dilution is coming, insiders know it and therefore are not buying shares. So once the major dilution happens you will see a pop for a month or so to make the new investors money, but after that it will come right back down as we did the first time.
The market is saying all is not well with IWDM.
Dilution cometh...
IWDM has nothing to do with Bubba's new studio. Bubba is building that on his own. I am sure that IWDM will be paying a lease for whatever they use there, which is how penny stocks line the insiders pockets.
Once the studio is ready look for IWDM's monthly expenses to increase based on the new lease agreement.
How should IWDM pay for this exclusivity?
This is not news....This was known from the second they released the 10k.
laughable.
IWDM is a penny stock, so you have to think exactly like a penny investor.
Michaels is not coming...This has been known for sometime now.
So they get restricted shares at market or at a discount to market? Thats right, they get them at a hefty discount, and they destroy any value the current share holders have.
Correct me if I am wrong but restricted shares are still a dilution and once the restriction is gone they are free to sell.
How does investment banking work? Does an investment banker just give IWDM a blank check?
Do they require anything from the company? Do they get any shares?
Do they dilute the shareholders, and take shares at a discount to market?
And how will he pay his staff? IWDM does not have enough cash to pay his staff, they rely on the terrestrial gig to pay the bills. Without the terrestrial contract there is no show as you know it.
IWDM time? Wow as a shareholder you should expect a little more from IWDM. The point of investing is to see your shareholder value increase, and by running on IWDM time that does not seem to be happening.
I have done enough DD to know that you dont catch this falling knife, and that funding and cash flow is going to become a real big issue in the real near term. Dont hang out too long, cause without new cash inflows there is not going to be an IWDM as you know it in 2012.
Looks like Steve Langford got a job with Randy Michaels, along with a lot of other talk radio personalities but nothing on Bubba or IWDM.
Publicly traded companies such as IWDM have a limited amount of time to release any news that is deemed material per SEC regulations. They don't just sit on PR's as people lead you to believe.
IWDM needs material events to move the stock, so if anything happened it would have been released.
how?
Just not happening, there are no buyers out there. There is no demand for IWDM.
Now with Bubba on his way out of terrestrial slowly but surely, they are going to need a great deal more cash if they have a desire to go Exclusive.
The stock may be cheap from a per share price, but from a valuation standpoint, IWDM is still not worth anywhere near the $14 million market cap they have today.
If you look at the 6 month revenue and take that out a full 12 months you come up with a figure of about $1.5 million in revenue with a net loss of $1 million. So just looking at the revenue number you have to put a 9x multiplier on this to justify its market cap. You cant put 9x multiplier on a penny stock company with huge cash flow issues, and out of control expenses.
Guess IWDM needs to take some advice from the tea party which they so rightfully endorse and cut spending.
So lets look at the method to the madness.
Get fired from every station, and move the show to IWDM exclusively. Now that could generate some additional revenue, not sure how much as I think the audience that is willing to pay for the show is limited. You saw that with the EE #'s of 2800.
Now I don't know Mr. Clem's financial needs, so I can not comment, but my opinion would be that if he was exclusive to IWDM he would have to work for free, and so would his staff. That I dont see happening.
My guess is he crawls back to Sirius, takes a pay cut, and dumps IWDM shares when he can to put gas in his car.
If Michaels and Zell were coming on board then there would not be a need for an IR firm to get this news out there.
The Wall Street rumor mill would be churning, and you would see speculators, which in turn would bring volume, which in turn would bring share price appreciation, which would in turn generate more buzz...rinse and repeat.
There is no trace of this, so these really are not rumors even.
So to set me straight....
Randy Michaels and Sam Zell coming to IWDM is only known here, and no one on Wall Street knows? Strange that those close to those two wouldn't know about it. I am sure they told 1 person, maybe 2, and in those circles the connection to Wall Street is there.
IWDM is cheap, Load up!
Now 3/4 of the way through the day after the big earning release and just about $1,000 worth of IWDM stock has traded.
It is safe to say that the market did not interpret the earning as positive as some believed them to be.
Every figure posted on IWDM cash, and revenue and earnings has come directly from the 10k filing. Straight from IWDM....If there is more information out there it certainly is not public knowledge.
These are numbers from 2010 before Bubba, before Early Enlistment, before any bubba subscribers, back when they offered some music channels and IO4Business.
Now since they brought in Bubba, and took in $845,000 ish (pretty confident in that ish), they have gone and spent half of it in 2 quarters. They can realize this revenue of a 12 quarter period, but seems they can spend the cash as fast as they want.
Now since they are spending $220,000 ish per quarter, or $73,000 per month without any capital raise and no increase in expenses (i.e. new talent) IWDM's cash balance at the end of December 2011 is projected to be -$18,000 so compare that to December 2010 balance of $2,000 ish, and you can see that year over year might not be so rosy.
Q1 cash on hand $706,000 ish
Q2 cash on hand $420,000 ish
How do those numbers represent an increase in cash on hand?
I guess I will get going on my DD
The market certainly does not agree with this assessment.
There is no story to tell, the only story is one of a struggling company with cash and expense issues.
Why would IWDM want to publish something like this.
No mention of Chase or Michaels in months.
If Chase was doing something positive for IWDM they would release some sort of news about it.
No Chase - No Michaels - No Zell = BK Filing for IWDM in 2012.
$420,000 in the bank down from $706,000 or so in a qtr is not good news. How is IWDM running out of cash in November good news?
Now if they want new talent that cash burn rate will increase significantly.
Clean Slate? In order to start with a clean slate they would need to wipe out all the shareholders so they could wipe out the millions upon millions of shares help by four individuals.
Facts are Facts, in order to run a business you need cash, and IWDM is running out of cash.
Yep...right on...Guess you just have to see what the market has to say.
Cash burn putting them broke and bankrupt in November is a huge catalyst.
IWDM will trade at .50 by the end of next qtr so you should load up.
Make sure to read the actual filing...
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1005758/000101376211002131/form10q.htm
Ok there are a total of 2817 early enlisters, that is even less than I estimated. They accounted for 281,700 share dilution with the Golden Ticket. Company now has 133 million outstanding shares, about 20,000,000 share dilution this qtr: 10 million to Bubba, 3 million to Bean/Edwards/Stanton, 2.4 million to outside parties for services rendered, and others .
Early Enlistment is netting the company a total of $845,000 over a 12 qtr period so this qtr revenue from EE was $70,425. Take that away from from total revenue and you have about $400,000 in monthly subscribers, Io for business, and ad revenue. That is an increase of about $110,000 qtr over qtr.
Now the problem....It cost IWDM an additional $200,000 in expenses to raise revenue by $110,000 even if you add in Early enlister revenue it cost IWDM $200,000 to raise revenue by $180,000. This is not a sustainable path. They are on track to lose over $1 million this year.
Cash on Hand - $420,000 - This is the biggest issue, they are burning through cash and at this rate if they had $706,000 on hand March 31 they are running at a rate of $286,000 cash burn per quarter and as stated before they will be out of cash by November, so financing/dilution is coming.
IWDM seems to have a problem with expenses, but I think it not considered a problem since they are using this as a piggy bank. We they need to they will go out and raise more money at the investors expense.
So really not a very positve or negative filing, the biggest issue is they are running out of cash...
Been Calm for 6 months here at IWDM...One can always say volume is coming, but until the volume actually comes it is all just hot air.
Volume should be your tell.
Dont focus on rumors, or stories, focus on what the stock is doing. When it makes a move on volume either way you will know what to do. Look for 200k blocks, look for million share days. Without volume it is all just smoke and mirrors.
What is happening on Monday?
Selling on the Bid is now illegal?
What happened?
At some point IWDM is either going to go out of business or the stock will go up.
So as long as the call is being made at one point it will be correct or IWDM will be out of business so it will be moot.