You made a typo there (VIX instead of XIV).

They are basically the same thing (TVIX is XIV and UVXY is SVXY). Just a preference I guess.

stopped out

My ave is mid 50s and this is just a starter. Not too worried as I think the lowest is can go is low $30s.

I almost always start too early but then build up position and so far it has worked every time. I guess I should adjust my stat buys (could definitely improve my ave)

In UVXY 74.20... Hedge

Jobs report is a no-win situation.
Good number = concern for rate hike
Bag number = concern for economy

Just gotta get through that date and get it out of the way.

Yes, it's surely is too early to load up. Maybe second half of Sept.? Just have to wait and see.
But in any case I cannot imagine world crash as in 2009... or at least USA economy. The numbers are too good and banks and companies are very well protected.

$100 XIV isn't mathematically possible by year end no matter what happens.
No need to even mark this post

Well, as much as I'd like to say "good luck", I cannot... Since we are on the opposite sides of the bet LOL.
We'll just have to wait and see

Congrats on those position.
I just thought you know a secret how to make millions out of thousands.

As you experienced yourself, UVXY is impossible to time, it's pure luck. Eric actually bought at a perfect time but sold waaaay too soon.

It'll go down as unexpectedly as it went up IMO. It's just the way it seems to work. Just a matter of time

First of all, I can always buy UVXY calls or common as a hedge. I just don't see a reason to do so at the moment. SVXY was $10 in 2012 by the way. And yes, I am well aware of decay. But going to 2009 lows is nonsense. When that happens, I'll be all out of SVXY (meaning, it ain't happening soon).

This week every single day I buy UVXY as a hedge for the day (when I don't feel right about SVXY) and basically trade it. Overall I'm up only a couple of hundred $ but all I care about is that I feel safe holding SVXY starter.

But again, what are you doing? All in UVXY calls?

LMAO!
Sure, you can't wait to delete your account.... as you are typing yet ANOTHER response!

I am on the board I like to be at, what difference does it make to you? You shouldn't even be here according to yourself.

And yes, I am building SVXY position.
Once that blue line gets into positive, UVXY is screwed. And while it's getting there, it's a good time to nibble SVXY.

http://www.vixcentral.com (click on Contango)

Just look at historical data from Aug-Oct 2011

Edit: Why don't you tell us how to make millions from thousands?... Just not "Monday Morning QBing" but tell us what to do now.

I don't see anyone on this board board who didn't miss this dump. At least I was on vacation all that week LOL.

It doesn't matter what you think or what I think. It's all about facts and charts and this chart tells me it's time to start building SVXY position.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX:$VXV&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p09762636724&a=294107511&r=1361836435570

You said we are going back to 2009 lows. We'll see but I think you are dead wrong.
Don't tell us how you'd love to delete your account while you are posting using that same account.

TVIX should dump after close... Back in contango as was this morning

So now it's a guess game?
Why not just follow clear indicators instead?

No, it won't go up forever in straight line and recent events clearly show it.
Even if it stops going up here and just lingers where we are (or even slowly drifts lower), it doesn't mean volatility will go back to backwardation.
And when it comes to trading volatility, who cares about printing money and debt? All you have to do is look at future contracts to make your decisions.

That's the way I see it

Pretty nice contango

I see many CNBC "heads" stating we are going lower. I actually think there are more negative comments. But it's all irrelevant. It's all about volatility contango/backwardation and talking heads mean nothing. Big boys are driving volatility futures, not retail. And big boys know what they are doing... they create this market (whether you like it or not).

It's all about contango/backwardation.
SVXY could have easily went to low $30s or even lower if volatility kept in deep backwardation for a while. But it turned back to contango yesterday and closed at ratio of 1 (on the fence). Looks like today it will go to contango. If there won't be any more ugly news from China... And I mean _news_ then I don't see why volatility should go higher than it is now

Thank you for your lessons on this board. I've learned quiet a few things from you recently (I thought I knew a lot)

And we are back in contango

Yea, just when I bought some UVXY as a hedge LOL.
But in any case, I'm glad you feel this way because this is also the first time in 2 weeks it looks like volatility will calm down at least a little.

I see. I was looking for more of a long term puts.
thanks

What puts did you buy? The premiums are outrageous on everything I see.

Thanks for this new pick!

My SVXY ave is just below $60 but fortunately it's just a starter position and I was on vacation when this all started to unravel. Vacation kinda saved me I guess... because I would probably have a lot more if I was watching it all day.
I think this plays out similar to Aug-Oct of 2011... Ugly XIV/SVXY decline (XIV went from something like $24 to $5.50). But we all know it won't last forever and just gotta save $$$ for the "right" moment.

Imagine where TRVN would be in normal market. I'd surely still have it.

Awesome call my man!
Are you riding UVXY? After selling my SVXY (after Greece mess), I started building another one late last week but decided to stop and wait for volatility to get closer to contango.
Let's see what happens next few weeks!
Good luck

I say it sees $35 before it's turns around. $30s certainly a high possibility this week since we are in deep backwardation

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Welcome back

P.S. To be honest, I almost bailed today LOL

I didn't mean to start any "controversy" LOL, just want us all to make $$$.
Speaking on $$$, SVXY is gonna be a sure gainer... just need to time it right and it's getting really close.

That's the thing, I care about posts on this board because I am looking for ideas.
You find time to post about your closed positions :/

Anyway, good for you

Congrats and thanks for sharing but why can't you also post when you start a position? This is not the first time if I'm not mistaken. I'm not saying you are lying (I couldn't care less), it's just people come to this board looking for trade ideas to make money.

Unless we hear something really negative from China, I don't see it going that low. But nevertheless, my SVXY position is only about 40% at the moment. We'll see.
I wish I was around when it dropped to $45... I'd buy 50% right there

Depends how much you already have. If you already have a good % of your money in IMSC, I'd leave it at that. If it's under 5%, I'd add.
Thing is... with such a market pullback this week, you can pretty much throw darts, buy those stocks and you will most likely make good money.
Personally, I am building SVXY position (volatility short) and buying good names like PANW, AAPL, SWKS, etc.

Lifter, you seem to have a good handle on shorting UVXY via puts.
What is a good play for April 2016? Or do you have other ideas for long term?
Thanks

Well, XIV went from roughly $24 to $5 if I remember correctly. That would mean roughly $20 for SVXY.
That's why I'm being careful and not buying in fast. Back in 2011 XIV was actually my first experience trading volatility and I learned many lessons since then.

I've built about 25% of my ideal SVXY "full position". Most buys were between 50 and 55 as I'm thinking it could easily go to 35 if the fear escalates even more. I mean, it touched 45 yesterday!

I see. Thank you for clarification

Ah, that would explain that. Did you notice the disconnect between UVXY and SVXY throughout the day? If there was no disconnect though, your explanation still doesn't make sense.