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Raggy!!!!!! Yeah Scoob??!!
(Not a knock on you spots.. though Scoob don't like Cats - odd as it seems - you have changed your tag around the time I am reading a Scooby Doo story to my 5yr old (Blake Jr) which is about "cat creatures"... go figure.. sigh.. story had nothing about loans though.. :)
Well my well planned exodus (of Mel Gibson?) of my very profitable PMs has dwindled to slightly profitable - aka GGG formally BHK, NPG, NGX. GOZ and MR are underwater. AGI and CKG are still doing well.
Meanwhile, on the other side of town, my piddly shares of CUX still doing well likewise SU.
The booby prize goes to RDM (Rhonda) which has awakened from its sleepy teens into the twenty somethings - flirting with "-" and "+" gains. If only a market existed to easily absorb my shares.
Hats off and shout out to Jim_P for the brass balls moves with RRI. I was leaning to buy at 750 - watched it fall and did nothing - frozen - either in fear or denial... impressive (as said in Quake III Arena) move today for RRI - deadcat or for real? The shadow knows...
I laugh - PYR, CPST and RRI doing quite well. Except for a tad of RRI in my RSP, my happy no income tax house wife should be overjoyed knowing that she was up a minimum of +40% for the trio, in her US "non-registered" portfolio. My "scooby snacks" if you will.. er ah.. "Hers"...
Anyahoo, onto more serious matters. I have taken some of your how abouts and have hit a few brokerages with some questions. If one of them would reply, I would be able to provide some positive feedback. I have actually done some commission "reverse engineering" to see how my green hand holder compares to the rest of the street.
Speaking of Mel Gibson & Brass Balls.. oh how to tie one on Blake..
FWIW: That was me in the movie you know....
"Have you made your decision, for Christ?!"
Alec Baldwin gives a short but powerful and biting performance as the executive motivator, Blake, sent in to announce a new incentive program that pits the agents against each other in an intense competition that ends with two of them losing their jobs at the end of the month. He mercilessly harangues the down-on-their-luck, lackluster agents by asking them "You know what it takes to sell real estate? It takes brass balls to sell real estate." He insults them further by rubbing in what third prize means - "You're fired --do I have your attention now? Hit the bricks, pal, and beat it, 'cause you are going out!"
In closing.. either (A) I am gonna once again see all my profits go down in flames or (B) I am just so wacked out of it, things may turn around and I will do ok....
Of course anything can happen (as Benny Hinn would say.. and it can happen to youuuuuuu).. and that is what makes this all so much fun...
Cheers all!!
SoB
SOLD 50% (OF TOTAL) CQL @ $9.09 (+18%)
Swiper no swiping..
Swiper no swiping..
Swiper nooooooooo swiping...
Ohhh mannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!
(Why? I_NEEDS_MONEY.COM)
Cut cut cut -- the lighting was all wrong!
Good to see I too am not alone in this arena. Forgive this giant post. It clears my head and gives me directions and goals plus perhaps it will lead to others providing feedback.
For years I have been filming on our Sony camcorder - hoping that one day, in a galaxy far far away, that I can rip into the computer and spit out VCDs/DVDs.
So now I might have number three on my top 10 time wasters:
#1 Computers
#2 Internet
#3 World of Movie Making
#4 TV?
..
..
I ended up getting new gear just after Xmas that hopefully would lead me toward the promised land.
Intel P4 (HT) (2.8) -- built in FIREWIRE (USB2.0 but of course)
ASUS P4P800DX
2GB RAM (ram drive perhaps?)
ATI All-in-Wonder 9600* 128MB
Existing 7200RPM 120GB PATA drives (currently 2 out of 6 in my collection..)
Antec P160 case + Antec 480W P/S
XP Pro (SP1a)
** I want to thank sites like 'sharkyextreme' for providing buyer guides. Without them, I would be lost with all the possibilities. I spec out each component when I buy a new computer, but I do so every 2-3 years. That is dog years - nothing can be carried over from the past - so you either start from scratch or spend every waking moment taking in all the new technology. (I would prefer to spend every waking moment reading about stocks so at least I can make serious money and pay someone to do this). See http://www.sharkyextreme.com - folder "Guides". Even with the guides, it took me weeks before I could widdle the price and go for the new system.
Case/MB..
The main criteria was ensuring that firewire was built into the motherboard. Further, this MB had onboard connectors for attaching to ports on the front of the case - another requirement. I found a lot of cases nowadays have "USB+HEADPHONE" jacks on the front, but not all have, in addition to these, FIREWIRE and MIC jacks. The P160, high priced and all, fit the bill. But I felt with video ripping it might get a hotter than most - it is aluminum and comes with a 120MM fan at the back and an optional spot for one strategically placed in front of the harddrives. Finally, the case and power supply were high on my list and I wanted to ensure they were of high quality.
ATI AIW.. take Deux...
I had the 2nd generation (circa 1997) of the ATI All-in-Wonder. Not impressed with ATI's support (read: lack of, that is) and how they just said "no support for TV tuner under Windows 2000". In 1999 I bought a Matrox card (G400DH). This time around, other than Nvidia, there was nothing out there that was a leader as was the ATI Radeon cards. The original goal in mind, I took a chance and got another AIW card.
FYI: 9600 versus latest 9800 differences:
9800 (PLUS) DVI
9800 (PLUS) better "graphic processing" engine (~x2 of 9600)
versus
9600 (PLUS) DUAL Monitor (2 VGA or 1 VGA + TV)
9600 (PLUS) FM Tuner
9600 (PLUS) $110US cheaper
What happened was, ATI made the 9800 then, for whatever reason, went back and made the 9600 AIW version - this time introducing DUAL monitor support for the first time, plus throwing in an FM tuner to boot. Compelling reasons to go with the less expensive 9600 over the 9800. Paying for minor improvements (even 2x the graphic power) are useless when in 6mths to a year the gains are like 10-30x. Also as a side bar, I am on the CPU all the time - so a TV tuner with a built in recorder were worth the $40US premium over the standard 9600 (save hydro with another "TV" on in the house).
XP.. finally..
Everyone might balk at the high price tag for XP Pro - but they really have made giant leaps to improve the product.
- built in "pcanywhere" (Remote Desktop) which is far better than pcanywhere
- built in web/ftp server (apparently SMTP but can't get that working)
- built in scanner software
- built in picture viewer
- built in movie maker (recently upgraded to boot)
- far more stable than 98..
- UNIX like command line options
- doesn't sit for 30minutes on the blue screen scanning your harddrive after (and if) you crash
- ability to run in the tasks in the background and "switch users"
- NTFS (512byte blocks - far better than that "should it be 8K or 16K crap FATCAT32)
.. and on and on..
SONY...
Not much to say. If yourself or anyone can help with this - I don't have the manual handy. As you record there appears to be some "auto-indexing" or "snippets". As you rewind the tape, the "counter" keeps going to "0:00:00" then back up (new snippet). See more below on this.
Life continues..
At this point in the story, I have barely scratched the surface on my way to utopia. The accomplishments are few:
(A) FIREWIRE (DIGITAL)
- I bought a "4p-6p" FIREWIRE cable - paid $4.50US - buy at a local computer store since the big boxes will try to sell them for $15+++++ easily
- Camera is SONY - has "iLINK" - SONY site says "standard IEEE1394"
- With XP Pro installed, I was able to plug the camera in, turn it on. Instantly in "My Computer" it shows "SONY DV" icon. It then starts Movie Maker.
- I was able to rip in a few seconds of video. Played ok. -- first test was a screaming success (see E for more)
(B) ATI - (ANALOG)
- ATI has built in recorder (for TV; FM; INPUTS) plus "TiVO" / "VoD" / "Video on Demand" capabilities
- Has SVIDEO out and audio out; but also has a breakout connector to give you SVIDEO or COMPOSITE VIDEO IN; RCA audio IN
- I have been able to "record" video from a VHS tape directly into the ATI. A mere test is where I have finished.
(C) Roxio V6 DVD Maker - (comes with VCD support)
- I was able to rip video via FIREWIRE directly in this product
- storybook setup - you can add your own audio/video; chapters apparently
- automagically burns a VCD for you - was able to put it (was on a CDRW) in my Panasonic DVD player and it worked no problem
- didn't explore all options on this
(D) Windows Media Player - WMP v9
- you can rip video too but limited options it seems
- I ripped in VIDEO via FIREWIRE (DV) but had no sound
- I made some adjustments and was able to rip VIDEO/SOUND via firewire but I lost frames
(E) XP Movie Maker version 5.1 (upgraded from CD install)
- same as (A) with a much better interface than ROXIO (C)
- As videos are read into the system (any product I would think) from the SONY, the "snippets" are shown separately - and can be manipulated separately or saved as a single file
- Storybook look - you can move "snippets" around into your "storybook"
- you can add titles and credits to your storybook
- create the movie (single file)
- this version asks "where will this movie be played?" to enable you to create files in formats and frames per second (fps) that can be viewed on various machines
So now where am I with this? My goal is to make movies up and then:
(A) Distribute on VCD/DVD (I don't own a DVD writer today though);
(B) Provide streaming video over the net (various qualities/sizes);
(C) Archive in digital format;
For thet streaming, I just copied over to my web directory and then from outside was able to retreive the movie.
So everything works, right? Well there is "Hertz and Not Exactly" and baby it Hurtz alright. Getting the connectivity working is the easiest part of the exercise it looks like.
The hardest part is deciding on the best quality to rip the movies and then how to export them.
- Some of my movies are coming from legacy tapes that cannot be digially imported (VHS).
- Then there are old Sony camcorder tapes - I think, although analogue in format, they can be moved across the firewire back to the computer instead of through the RCA jacks. My camera has DV out, but not DV tapes - it uses Digital 8 tapes.
- The third kind of tapes are the standard Digitl 8 tapes (native format for the camera today; digital)
The biggest problem is - understanding and coping with all the formats, file sizes and that "judge" dreaded word - CODECs. With music the formats, although many, most are using Mp3 and the methods for encoding are easily found. However, with movies the field is expanded and there are more issues introduced partly due to the sheer size of files. Want to spend hours reading on capturing, ripping and recording? Look at VCDHELP.COM - which, when I can find some time, is where I will be spending my time.
Consider music. Say you have a CD that is of high quality - your bit rate could be "192" or "160" or "128". So if you use "128" you might find the quality is "so/so". If you lose the original CD, you will never be able to achieve a better bit rate. However, suppose you ripped it at "192", you could always make a second copy at "128" - now would "128" match the quality as if you ripped from the original CD at 128? Probably not. You could have two versions - one for archiving and one for listening (e.g. the most Mp3s on a CD to listen to) - e.g. to preserve and for everyday use (I do see the value of two copies, unless 192 is the only rate to listen to)
With movies, the same goes. I can rip in the movies at the highest possible quality, then export, but the export would be massive if I don't use a compression algorithm.
I see people uploading "DVD" movies (2hr) using DiVX encoding at qualities that result in 700MB files (ok quality) to say 1.5GB (great quality - pure DVDs are 4GB). Some movies use a poor encoder - sometimes the audio/video get out of sync or when you move the position slider, it takes a while for the movie to play or play properly. Nowadays the defacto standard appears to be DiVX.
Using the ATI, a 25m (minutes) program recorded off the TV is "exported" in MPEG-2 at 900MB (.MPG) and MPEG-4 at 700MB (.AVI) [options available within the ATI player]. As you can see - the sizes are far too large. 120m would be 3.3GB -- and that is TV broadcast, not a bloody DVD copy. I take the MPEG2 over to a friend's house - and guess what - WMP didn't play MPEG2 - isn't that special!
When I ripped a couple of movies from the camera one ended up as 6MB (DEST). Another example - I ripped in a 2m clip - it was pure Digital in - SOURCE at 250MB - then exported using a format that would achieve 30fps using a "340kbps" broadband connection - this resulted in a 23MB file. Again seemingly a standard compression - but still large - 2minutes is 23MB!!
Next, when at my outlaw's house, their machine was circa 1997. So right off the bat, playing the 6MB file above was brutal. Even if the Win98 Media Player is at the right version, the codec, if I choose to use one that is not standard, must be installed. But the movie was unwatchable. The movie played alright, but almost every video frame was lost due to the lack of CPU power. Here is the other factor - your target audience. Futher the quality also may relate to the VIDEO SIZE. E.g. is it a tiny box on the screen is useless. FULLSCREEN - is it even watchable?
So here are the points I need to address and be satisified with:
- Import at the highest quality possible (Digital 8; VHS; Legacy camcorder tapes; Firewire; Composite)
- Export in various formats
- VCD? That is standard - but you can only achieve something like 35minutes/VCD. Shall I wait for DVD? Will I be able to "seamlessly" string together multiple VCD files for DVD? At least everyone can play VCD who has a CD player in their computer. Most DVD players on the market play VCD too.
- Poor PC format - something for parents to see their grandchildren on their crappy PC
- Fast PC format - high quality a big file -- therefore, I have to be able to compress (encode) to something more reasonable
- RAW? The purest form so I can "Export" later using a better codec? Perhaps the odd flick? All flicks? Worth it?
- Of course do all the above with confidence that I don't have to go back and do something over.. do it once and be happy. If I am ripping from old tapes will I be able to do it again? Will they still be good? I will assume not.
- When you read VCDHELP.COM it isn't so simple to move from one format to another. Some examples deal with having to rip video in one pass then ripping audio in another pass and then putting all the pieces together - hoping they are all "sync'd'. And of course all this entails many steps, programs and hours.
Lots of thoughts and lots to learn. When I rip CDs I own today, I don't think "I will lose this CD so it better be a good rip". I rip with the thought - I can rerip if necessary and I want the most music today on a Mp3 CD. Not such an easy call with this stuff.
BTW: I have just downloaded from Divx.com their free trial of DrDivx... the next chapter begins..
(And think about this - today there are CD's and DVD's. Already they are working on larger capacity DVD's - and perhaps beyond. Plus, CD's and DVD's are not 100% either - they scratch. At least you can create "copies" and/or parity files .. but still...)
SoB
PS: Unfortunately I am a lurker and haven't paid up at iHUB (I have lifetime at SI) - so hopefully I can reply and post more during future Happy Hours -- assuming I am not already pissed drunk at the time.
Much success, mon, on the forum.. Cheers mon!
Still struggling to get rid of the piddly stuff. Yeah I have NPG but nothing big. Like some of the other crap.
RRI taking a big hit this week - was thinking of adding at 750 now 700. CPST has been looking good and holding up and CQL is one few actually up today. Holding strong with CUX - but alas a puny holding again.
Kastel - anybody out there willing to give me $5.04 for CKG today?
Ah a crappy day like the weather.
Blake
SOLD 100% MSSN@2.30 (~-12%) (why is right..) /eom
SOLD 100%_DLR@$1.35 (+9%) Thanks FP.. /eom
ttteesstt
NPG..
I still own that (as little as I have). I bot it when you mentioned it a month or so ago. What are your thoughts on it? You see something on that doc that I don't? (perhaps I should add to my position...)
SoB
Sorry to hear that Michael.
Take care and best wishes for you and your family.
The Blakes
Added to existing AE.UN @11.25..
(That and BTE.UN were screaming BUY!!!!)
SuB
I learn everyday why I am different than most...
I go to place an order to sell some shares of a stock at $1.97 which has a bid at $1.30. The stock traded in the $1.80s range a few days ago.
TD Webbroker (Read: Not TD; Not NYSE) says the following rules are in force:
Price Range over current Bid/Ask restrictions:
0-1.00 $0.50
1.01-5 50%
5.01-50 35%
50.01+ 30%
It means that this stock, is 4 cents over the 50% mark and I cannot place the trade.
The trader can place the order - but not in WebBroker.
What the hell is the logic? Basically I cannot place realistic sell orders. That "after 5 trades your account needs to reviewed" is also BS.
But I will thank the boyz at TD for two things:
(A) More of an incentive to pack my bags and scram... (Ameritrade fits ok; just have to rule out or in IB)
(B) It provides me yet another question to ask with the other brokers before I commit.
Are restrictions like this at other Canadian Discount brokers?
Same crap with options. Looking around trying to play only to find have the bloody combos aren't setup in webbroker.
TD SUX TO BE CUX!
Suxton O. Bluke..
Knives? No. But I did have a run in with a drill bit lately..
Was telling a tall tale about why my nose had a red burn amarksp..
For me in "blah" mode. Nothing screaming BUY!.
Everything is either down a little or in tease mode (down a bit.. down.. up).. Just churning.. Gotta get into FP mode... scheduled cleanups of the dead wood.
Missed a selling op for PYR (1/3=cost). CPST earnings out today. Don't want to set a target - would like to see it break the mid $2.50s..
Chores!
Suxton..
So let me guess...
I had a pretty brutal day - down right across the board.
So I assume with zero posting here during the day, you all are out there buying madly right? No time to post right?
I hear ya.. I get it.. ))))))))
(Poor Scooter Girl)...
Saxton...
Sears... BINGO!
Did I mention this?
My DVD Player (Panasonic Model) was on sale for $199 at Sears - so I ordered it an picked it up.
1) Price at 2001 Audio Video and even Future Shi* was $229 (READ: Sears is competiting on the newest gear; and beating the competition!)
2) Even after 3 months if I have a problem I will take it back - FS has 30days and 2001 AV? Restocking and/or instore credit (AS IF!)
3) Because it was ordered at Catalog - I get around having to deal with the "AV department" - the people at Catalog take anything back without questions.
4) No greasy salespeople to deal with trying to upsell me or trying to over talk the features..
I also like Sears for major stuff specifically because of the inhouse repairs. When you are spending $1K+ on Washers/Dryers/Treadmills etc - piece of mind costs little. For 5 items you get 28% on the maintenance. So it pays to buy most things from them.
The electronics are hard though - they don't have much in other areas (receiver; TV) that appeal to me - well today anyways.
Merci!
Blaubluke...
So what? A Rolls Royce, Sir Franklin Pembleton?
Well for that you need a driver who will also wash the car for you whilst you trade stocks. That would be the icing on the cake...
My version of a top-o-the-line dishwasher was Kenmore Elite. Though I was toying at looking at Bosche <sp?> Miele's Vacuums are about $1000... looked good alright the one I saw. (Usually I get the Kenmore's on sale for $150-200 that are already $100-200 off.. (esp the Sears Online Outlet Store)..
Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet!
Blyke....
Yes, and with TD.
TD they have the mysterious "G" and "H" accounts. If I am suppose to move money there then short - is beyond me.
CD - HBC is a short in my books. (repeat repeat repeat). But they are trying and want our business. HA HA HA! UTTER JUNK! (No I have shorted nothing). I can barely do well with longs). Closest to shorts are PUTS for me.
Bluke..
You are mixing price with service.
BestBuy - a "maybe", Wal-mart - a "never".
I go to Wal-Mart knowing what I want - and ask where it is. To ask the person who can barely speak English on "does the DVD player have component out" - forget it!
BestBuy - yeah, those teenagers and twenty nothings know a lot. Like at Orifice Despot (not bad.. Stimples?) They are on salary I believe unlike Future Sh*t which are on comission. (even though owned by same - I can double check that).
What I am looking for is a company that can piece together the parts - I can go to Sony Store for that. But we are mixing COMPUTERS + AV - that's still a niche in my department. Again I exclude the BestBuys of the world - they are mixing "gear" to come up with a solution; Gateway should be putting together "their gear" for a solution.
Macs shine not because they are building crap like Dell and selling it as a unit - hoping all the pieces work as intended. Instead, everything was designed to work with the Macs as configured. I have said this before - with Mac I expect everything to work (you know.. because of the patents), but with the PCs - it is hope.
Your experience with Dell - one ofs. Why you had to wait beyond day 5 is beyond me - was it escalated as high as possible? (But I agree the single purchase was not wise; a system would be something else; even then, I preferr to review and have my system built - as I did - with exactly what I wanted)
But Dell only sells online - yet they are killing the market - so it must be working. If people don't think service is crap at Wal-Mart they are blind.
I went to the bank on Friday (no two!). Anyways, after working with two people now that "were" bank tellers and then dealing with a teller with the same attitude as them (read: b*tch), I am convinced that most are are bred that way. I go to banks not to chit chat or deal with them - but because I was forced to at gun point. (TD took my GST payment at the machine away; I had some office account business at Royal). We all know service at banks are crap. I say to the woman at Royal "Stamped photocopy" - she does the paperwork and says here. I say, "receipt? " She says "what receipt?" I say "the receipt that says I gave you this piece of paper and I will not be hit with a $15 charge". She gets up to get a photocopy - pissed she had to do work - her friend two tellers down looks at me with the look of... - what an A55HOLE I must be to ask a teller to get off her a55 and get me a photocopy. I am so a5hamed!! I bit my tongue and said have a wonderful weekend. A botched photocopy - but I had proof and copied at home previously to boot to cover any fraud. I was cursing all the way home. And my opinion of Royal can't get much lower - seeing as they are the king of nickel and dimers.. the KINGS.. their royalty logo fits them well.
Enough Bloke.. enough...
Anyahoo, my point is - Gateway will do well if they can sell "systems that work". Cost is another factor. Case in point - my "Cambridge Soundworks" was bot to work with my '99 computer but also because I expected it to work with my DVD Player once I got one. Doesn't work. Piecing together gear is a lot of work.
(Yes we differ on the stock - you appear to be interested in a run up and dump; myself, I would love that too - but I think they could be a turn around story like AAPL). The difference though between AAPL and GTW is - Apple is the only game and they can markup whatever they want. I can't afford an Apple - end of story. Its their throat they are cutting. For Gateway - there is more to the story. I will continue to review)
BTW: I officially have changed my opinion of you. If you weren't already, you are now. RICH (period) I too wait for the day when I have enough coin that I can, without worry of the inflated high price, buy a mac similar to yours - no, lets be generous-lets buy two macs each with two 24" flat panels.. and an iPod or two. Ah yes, that day, I will be RICH.
Do you expect me to talk? No Mr. Bond, I expect you to Die!
All is not Bleke
(btw: congrats!! Very very very large smile on my face for you.. and a nod..)
Not 100% where you are going with this.
In Canada we have:
Registered accounts - including Retirement Savings (RRSP); Education savings (RESP) and Retirement Income Funds (RRIF).
Each has their own rules.
RRSP - you can only have 30% Foreign or you are hit with a 1%/mth penalty on the balance over; another 1%/mth if you own stocks not allowed in the account (Pink Sheet comes to mind; not 100%); you cannot short; you cannot buy "short" options but you can buy "long" CALL LEAPS. Not 100% on the put leaps - I thinkith naught.
RESP - no foreign limit - quite frankly not 100% on what I cannot buy in the fund.
RRIF - I am only 35 and no where close to worrying about it - but I think similar to RRSP..
(we are not as blessed with all the offerings as with the US)
For non-registered - whatever our broker can get us. Anything goes AFAIK. And we have no "LONG/SHORT" capital gains. Just untested laws.
-- but I want to just clarify. I know in the US you can go to Yahoo! and get quotes on MUTUAL FUNDS (as the one you speak of). Not ETFs not CLOSED mutual funds - which are traded on the AMEX.
We as Canadian's I do not believe, we can purchase those funds - end of story. Nothing to do with accounts or shorting or anything else. I can't buy a Fidelity mutual fund unless it is traded on the AMEX (which would make it CLOSED).
If I setup shop with Ameritrade Canada, I would be extremely surprised if I could buy US Mutual funds - again I am not a US resident. Because of the laws surrounding the mutual funds (read: everyone now laugh) I don't think foreigners can buy them.
Anyahoo, just clarifying my statement previously made.
Bluke
Yo Yo Yo Frank.. Longterm thoughts on Gateway?
I heard on ROBTV (the bald guy talking with the good looking female host) - how Gateway seems to be the largest seller of Plasma screens? True? False? He had some good words on them (and bad words on Nortel - which piqued my interest in the fact that he might have something good to say for the long haul read: a good source?)
As I was saying during the holidays about Gateway is the Apple of the PC world (watch for flying Roni's). I am seeing them providing complete home entertainment centers. I purchased an ATI AIW 9600 w/TV and FM tuner - (my second; first was a 2nd generation back in 97). Anyways the point here is - it works quite well. I can have a TV as a second display - watch "VIDEO ON DEMAND" - I can play/pause/reverse - while it still records on the computer. Instead of having TIVO and REPLAY - you can do that with a computer.
So I am thinking if Gateway continues to get their act together and continue to pull together all the technologies they will have a winner. I am the guy wanting to rip video via Firewire from his Sony Camcorder - burn DVD movies to play on my big screen TV. Ok, so all I have is the Camcorder and Firewire and VCD's - but I am no different than anyone out there.
Up to now - Apple - no brainer. But the cost is prohibitive to most. Gateway is going in the right direction I believe.
(Oh yeah, tech spech - this is a long term play - starting now to what? $10? $20? MOON? -- Bush said MARS...)
Gateway took out emachines last week..
Blike
Good question. TD Waterhouse does not allow me to get a quote. I wonder if Ameritrade Canada would.
My opinion - as Canadian's, because we are special, are not allowed to buy US Mutual funds (and vise versa).
I remember I questioned someone on a fund that was in the US because of their "statements" didn't match what the fund actually said. I pissed away time and only when I tried to get a quote on Waterhouse did I realize - CH*T - it is a US Mutual Fund.. not a closed fund traded on the market. Waste of time.
bloke
Jan 30/04-Nightly Business Report - Market Monitor
FP - The name sounded familiar (I like to know the people making calls).. sob
01/30/04: "Market Monitor"- John Dorfman, President, Dorfman Investments
PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is John Dorfman, President of Dorfman Investments. This is John`s first visit with us, but he comes with impeccable credentials. He wrote the "Wall Street Journal`s" Heard On The Street column for years and he`s the author of nine books on investing. Welcome to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, John. Great to have you.
JOHN DORFMAN, PRESIDENT, DORFMAN INVESTMENTS: Thank you so much for having me.
KANGAS: Please give us your assessment of the U.S. stock market`s current level in relation to the condition of the economy and the outlook for corporate earnings.
DORFMAN: Well, the outlook for earnings, I think, is pretty good, and it better be because stocks had gotten ahead of the earnings for quite a while. I think now the earnings are beginning to catch up with stock prices and that`s what we want to see. I actually have a radical prediction for you. I think we`re going to have the first normal year in 13 years.
KANGAS: Really? The first normal year. We could -- yes, what is normal?
DORFMAN: Well, I define five percent to 15 percent up is normal, since 10 percent up is the average. And we haven`t had a year in that range. You know, there have been 12 years that were either heartbreak or delight.
KANGAS: Aha. Well, an interesting and a very good prediction that we want to hear, naturally. But I have to ask you, did the sell-off in stocks on Wednesday, was that whole thing overdone in reaction to the mere possibility of an interest rate hike?
DORFMAN: I think so. My feeling is that the Fed will keep a lid on rates until after the election so as not to be seen as interfering with the election, as the saying goes. And then I`m worried about 2005, that rates may pop up then.
KANGAS: But not until then, it`s not likely?
DORFMAN: I don`t think they`ll rise very much. And the very early stages of interest rate hikes have not been very dangerous in the past.
KANGAS: Well, because you`re basically positive on the market, let`s have some of your suggestions as to what you`d buy at this level.
DORFMAN: Well, we like very much the defense industry, Paul. We think there`s a bipartisan consensus that defense spending needs to be increased. And one of my favorite names there is Alliant Tech Systems (ATK). They make rocket motors, munitions, explosives.
KANGAS: In the mid $50s, I see by the chart here?
DORFMAN: Yes, correct, today.
KANGAS: And it`s had a pretty good run, but that doesn`t care you scare you off?
DORFMAN: No. It, that stock is usually too expensive for cheap stake like me, but we were able to pick it up around 16 times earnings.
KANGAS: OK. All right, let`s move to another one.
DORFMAN: OK, well, another industry we like very much is energy. We think there is a genuine shortage of natural gas in the United States that will become increasingly apparent to everyone over the next five years.
KANGAS: What`s your favorite there?
DORFMAN: I like St. Mary`s (SM) very much. It`s a small pure play in natural gas, a domestic play.
KANGAS: But do you think that recent flare up in the price is justified?
DORFMAN: Well, the price will bounce around with the weather and, you know, perceptions about storage levels. But it was quite cheap before and it`s still pretty cheap now.
KANGAS: OK. And in other area do you like something?
DORFMAN: We have been emphasizing high dividend stocks, Paul, for about 13 months, first in anticipation of Congress doing something about dividend taxation and then the reality. We like Allied Domecq (AED), for example, a British company that`s the parent of Baskin Robbins and Dunkin` Donuts. Now, looking at my waistline, I think you can see that I never go into those places but --
KANGAS: I think they`re in the spirits business, too, are they not?
DORFMAN: Very much so.
KANGAS: Beefeater`s gin, to be exact.
DORFMAN: Yes, that`s correct, and a number of well known liquor brands, which gives a considerable steadiness to that stock.
KANGAS: OK. Let`s have a look at perhaps another of your long recommendations.
DORFMAN: We like Invision (INVN), which makes luggage screening devices for airports. I think people know that they had a big boost when all the airports were required to put in such security. They won`t have another year that good for a while, but it`s so cheap that we think it`s a good long-term investment.
KANGAS: All right. And anything that would you sell here?
DORFMAN: Well, we do a little short selling at my shop. About half our clients do have some short sell bets and surprisingly, perhaps, we`re short Fannie Mae (FNM).
KANGAS: Oh, boy.
DORFMAN: We think that it`s more interest rate sensitive than it ever was because it keeps a lot of mortgages and we`re worried about the security of its massive hedging structure to try and protect itself there.
KANGAS: So you would short Fannie Mae, which has been a long time favorite?
DORFMAN: Correct.
KANGAS: All right. Now, do you own these stocks personally or are you short Fannie Mae, for example?
DORFMAN: Yes, I am personally short Fannie Mae and my clients and I are long all of the stocks that I mentioned on the long side. So I definitely have a rooting interest in the stocks we`ve been discussing.
KANGAS: All right. We have about 15 seconds for just a last minute thought from you, John, if you have any.
DORFMAN: My last minute thought is buy that which is unpopular. That`s the best way to make money in the market.
KANGAS: There you go. I think we all learned a little bit of that from Sir John Templeton, didn`t we?
DORFMAN: Definitely.
KANGAS: Yes. Thanks very much for being with us, John. It`s a pleasure to have you.
DORFMAN: Great.
KANGAS: My guest John Dorfman, President of Dorfman Investments.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
Picking your Brain FP...
CNBC use to have a guy on called "Dan Dorfman" right?
Last night NBR had a guest named John Dorfman - "he wrote the "Wall Street Journal`s" Heard On The Street column for years and he`s the author of nine books on investing."
Any opinion on John?
soB
Who's not ready?
Posted as a Message on TD Waterhouse...
"Please be aware that equity fills on Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange may be delayed due to volume."
Joke!
Michael the Bear..
Ah... so you would say the techs are "overblown" or way overblown?
On the aside, see those wild swings of BKB (PHPI) lately. They are a tech play alright - but interesting as they "sit" there today doing nothing, not participating. The promoter sill in 100% control IMHO...
Ha. Yesterday I felt I was in the movie Cliffhanger.. with someone screaming at me to do something - whilst looking down - my feet barely gripping the cliff.. as the rock debris falls from under me..
Either that, or I was about to give my buddy sandwiches, and I didn't secure the rope properly... but they were good sandwiches.. Totally down for some sandwiches..
I know that I have to become smarter on this stuff. Last tech bubble was 50shrs here.. 10 there.. 35 here..
Blake
To short or not too short? Tech anyone?
Along the same lines is the trading of options. Years ago Corel would either "beat" or "disappoint" and it was a toss up. Oracle another example. So you could try to play - "I think they will disappoint" - but it was a crap shoot.
But the worse thing was, they would "pre-announce" and then that would instantly screw your option assuming you bet the other way.
So the first question is - WHY NO PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS on this stuff now? It is ok to disappoint with a pre-announcement but not to pre-announce better than expected earnings? (Read: F-ING KEY-RAP!)
So speaking of Nortel - yeah I should of got some under $1.. around $3.. around $5.. around $7.. but what about now?
Was that Verizon deal all that great?
I think it is all garbage - look at RIM. A comment a few times is - "overvalued".. well that was probably true at $40. Now $115 and still rising. Something like $1M subscribers. But then if TECH is coming back, those firms will provide these devices to their people. But then again, aren't they farming off tech to India and China? The price of these things (monthly) isn't cheap. You must be online all the time.
With RIM, I am not buying any, but so tempted to look at PUTS - or at least - be prepared for a blow off and perhaps ride it down a bit. But alas the rides are swift - waste of time.
In the long run it is better to see a company like Cisco "meet or beat" each quarter and just keep betting on that consistency instead of investing in companies that are not predictable.
So do you Michael or anyone else have any views on this stuff?
Another angle are the Holdrs -- hold a position as core and then play the smaller guys. Stocks like Nortel could hit $12 in the next few days and be back at $7 by the end of Feb. (PMZ for sure.. har har)
Nortel is here (BDH)
http://www.holdrs.com/holdrs/main/index.asp?Action=HOLDROutstanding&SubAction=BDH&HoldrName=....
RIM is here (WMH)
http://www.holdrs.com/holdrs/main/index.asp?Action=HOLDROutstanding&SubAction=WMH&HoldrName=....
Read this one:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/040130/tech_nortel_stock_1.html
National Bank Financial analyst Tom Astle raised his price target to $8.50 from $6.50 and reiterated its "outperform" rating.
It is $8.03US now!! 47 cents more? Yeah right! Either I would be a stupid ass believing such nonsense or Tom is the biggest Ass*hole (sounds similar to his last name though).
Prudential Equity analyst Inder Singh raised his price target to $10 from $7 and reiterated his "overweight" rating.
Go Inder.. Go Inder.. its your birthday.. Go Inder.. its your birthday..
Anyahoo.. part of me says -- buy some NT now.. if it drops pick up some more. -- assuming Nortel is back and will be hitting $20 sooner than later. But I am sure there is better JUNK to make money with.
Comments welcome.. (ha.. probably every other thread on the planet has people buying Nortel.. CHUCKLE)
SoB
[EDIT.. Hey Fity...]
Sold "little" CKG $4.74 out of one acct (+ ~13.5%)
(Read the original post)
Sniff Sniff.. we are under $400PoG. (going up since I sold this.. har har!)
Nothing compared to the beating CPST is taking.
NPG: Another miss managed holding..
SoB
[EDITed]
Why you ask??? Why not....
What me worry?
SoB
Bot MSSN $2.58 (v1.0)
Hey TF - saw you bot HML -- I canned mine - I am suffering from Consolidationitus. Did they consolidate yet (4 for 1?)
SoB
Premature??.. Hey.. that's right up my alley...
Thanks for tip..
I am noticing a few companies are starting to restate their "probable" resources.
Shoulda woulda coulda earlier on CQL.TO .. SU.TO swinging everywhere but still looks good.
Next you will see some company restating how much milk they sold.. whoops.. thats Parmalat I guess.
Semis taking it today (NVLS) Novellus.
Cheers all!
SoB...
Bot CUX @ $2.82 (v1.0) (late to party; watching..) /eom
CUX..
Great move alright. My new CPU has taken away focus. My ATI "drive update" went splended last night at 2AM - TV/FM does not start and there are device errors now. (Why did I hate ATI from the past before? Could it be.. crappy drivers?)
So lets see.. if I spent more time on stocks.. I could have made money with CUX and had a free PC by now.
SU being hammered. Weekend of re-thinking. What I don't own is going through the roof, what I do own is sideways/down the toilet today. Ah bliss..
Yes Virginia there is a Wolf..
blake
Crypologic.. huge moves of late.. (+Blake Update)
Don't own yet. But the move lately has piqued my interest.. (Prof. Kastelco: Definition based on the "arousal" version)
Haven't done much "trading" of late.. my stars include:
FCO.TO (+16%)
-- re-starting a silver refinery
-- I bought purely on technicals (will sell purely on fear)
RDM.V (never mentioned that.. a dog with fleas but the dog somehow loves gold going down the tubes of late). A legacy play - mixed results.
CPST (+16%) - excluding today, the gains and strength has been pretty good.
SU and CQL doing well - though down today (worried more about CQL than SU) (+35% +15% respectively)
Watching the gold and me stocks.. losely..
Blake..
Taxing question indeed..
OT:
Not sure if anyone has an answer for this. Regarding Redback's stock consolidation and warrant issue..
Anyone know the tax implications (assume it was Canadian instead)?
My thought would be:
Attribute the my purchase against the common stock (73 for 1) as normal.
Treat the Warrants (pair) as purchase value of $0.00.
Sounds logical to me. Last time I had Palm and they split from 3COM - I got a huge DIVIDEND on my T5. (A simple letter with a "declared value" was all I needed to get around that bother; well, plus some rule changes Back at the CCRA - at the CCRA -- BACK AT THE CCRA!!)
Any help would be appreciated.
SoB
True.
Here it is 25 years with terms that are open or closed - closed typically between 3-5yrs.
In the US they have 30 years with.. no terms as you can get it fixed for 30 years.
Typically.. someone correct me..
Blake
Re: Our parents did not have credit cards and big car loans.
Well at 35, neither have I. On my second car (in my life; only own 1 car), in a town house (put 25% down - and that was a $200K CDN townhouse to boot; apparently worth $300K now if anyone can believe it because I can't). Two kids, stay at home wife. Never a credit card balance outstanding. Never. Only loan is a mortgage (basic; monthly; non-accelerated). Only thing I did do was borrow against retirement savings to raise the downpayment and lower the monthlys (evil perhaps but happily I am close to repaying that in full about 50% earlier than allowed). --- and not to mention a modest sized portfolio to manage - not bad for my age.
But most people I know - battle with car loans or leases; have higher mortgage payments due to lower downpayments; have credit card debt. RSPs or RESPs? What the FCUK is that? May or may not have two cars; both people work; maybe kids. But the car is probably far newer than mine and the lifestyle affords trips and the like regularly. My last trip was 97. Before that about 5 times in a row to Vegas in the early 90's. Spend spend spend.
All I hear - ALL I HEAR is credit card debt. No mortgage debt. This article was the first to mention "mortgage debt is larger than credit card debt". Since when is mortgage debt bad? (he didn't think so) Perhaps when you are barely making the payments and/or you are using the home for line of credit to pay off the credit cards? Only two reasons I know. If Mortgage was the only debt (mine) I would be laughing. (that is me chuckling by the way).
I listen to Suze Orman (yeah, the l0zer on CNBC who is telling people how to avert financial disaster - like a Porno Star turned Preacher is more like it - since she was bankrupt before). Anyways, I hear these calls "my husband has a credit card debt of $50,000" "we have cc debt of $25,000" ALL THE TIME! Even 100,000!! It is outrageous.
I can't fathom how people live month to month paying out so much credit card interest. Yes the occasional and even running a balance of $5K over time is manageable. But these numbers are massive - and it is as rampant as obesity. Seriously. Somehow people out there think they can drink, spend and eat with no reprecussions. Drugs? Thats another Trick of the Tail..
I had to point out your statement of "our parents" because I don't see buying more than I can afford. Never have. I wanted a lot whilst in school - but when I got my first job in Mar 13, 1989, I bought nothing until that fall - even then it was a few modest home electronics. In the spring of 90 a modest used car - paid cash. Deferred payments - don't touch them. Managing the use of the credit card to the hilt - almost everything goes through it - but always pay on time. Right now I have about $1500 in free travel from Royal Bank thanks to using the credit card from 97.
I had to chuckle - a pair in the office I worked - the guy leased a car. (to me the only purpose of leasing is for business use only; regular joes that lease - paying far too high a premium to have the smell of new leather instad of ass under their "seats"). Anyways, I can't tell you if it was our fault but we mentioned - "you better watch the mileage - unless you prepaid or got a good fixed amount, you might pay through the nose when you turn it in". The trip was about 40KM/day. I have no idea on the numbers for the lease. So what do you think happened? His girlfriend, who turned in two ways -- she became his wife and she wore the pants in the family -- leased a car (!!!!) Because they realized that perhaps they would have problems and figured if they alternate driving, the mileage would be sufficient. Now chuckle. Unreal.
BTW: It is always cheaper to rent if you don't plan on staying in a home for more than 5 years since the interest part is higher than the principle.
Anyways, I rather look at how long it takes to buy a car with my wage. Seeing as hopefully everyone gets to a point and move to a bigger/better home - I think comparing to the mortgage has less of an impact. Cars today are more than they were - but then again they are better too. But every 5-10 years you need a new/different car..
My tree cents anyways.. now to off to have a caufee..
Cheers!
PS: I wondered all day how I could get the words PORNO and PREACHER in the same sentence..
EDIT: I may be atypical of most families - but that cuz Johnny jumped off the bridge, doesn't mean everyone should follow. I am happy that I can control my expenses and have a portfolio to manage and not have outrageous debts. I just see the everyone out there spending with disregard. I don't agree with it. If I am not the norm, so be it. If I can make money from their heartaches (via the likes of AXP), even better.
atypical - context issue perhaps.
It appeared to be more the norm than not. The story was geared toward "what regulations are there?" "why is the security geared toward a volunteer body instead of federally regulated?".
I cannot quantify (based on memory) but being a random choice - it would be the norm.
Do you think you would have a problem walking around most sites? Thow a white hat on and big coat, clipboard. Really?
I walked into the Hospital -- looked at the board where my wife was - I was only asked "who was I" when I took longer than I should looking at the board. I could have been the raper trying to finish a woman off... I said my name is, my name, slim shady - I could have seen a name and said "I am the uncle of joan smith" and that was it.
Lax lax lax. Ex that is.
blake
As if they CAN check every overseas container.
That's a whole other world..
Touché..
Did you see the 60 Minutes episode with Steve Croft? - he and another fellow walked .. WALKED FREELYaround an "atypical" chemical plant - all over the site. Mere gates that you walk through (broken locks/no locks) with a no trespass sign. They are dressed up - workers walk by and wave to them. They go up to tanks of the most deadly chemicals. No one caught them - talked to them - minded them. Oh that is, until they left, and the security guard came after them with a local sheriff and Steve ended up getting a trespassing ticket.
Chemical plants apparently are to be part of an organization - which adheres to rules - to prevent this. But it appears it is voluntary. (CRAP!)
What about the US/CAN border - middle of the country, just walk in.
I agree - the public is being snowed on the BS when there are SERIOUS issues out there.
My thoughts are - the terrorists aren't into small stuff but into major things. But the Cole was hit and that wasn't so huge. What would it take to crash a plane into a nuclear power site? Just think for one moment - flash to 911, it was against the both the world's greatest icon of capitalism and the US government - if they really were against the people, imagine those planes pointed at major power plants.
Of course no point getting into their head, cuz I can't even understand the market so..
Thanks for your wonderful thoughts Michael...
Cheers!
Current Terror Alert Level
Of a kingdom, beyonnnnnnnd the skies..
Well lookie lookie. I got this huge book about RedBack's restructuring.
Then I got ANOTHER one within a week with slightly different stuff. Didn't read it all except the "73 for 1" - TOSS
Anyways as we all know Blakes take - it was consolidated 73 for 1. I don't mind saying the lark was small compared to most of my other investments but still a loss is a loss.
Anyways my 2K shares turned into 28. But it gets better actually. Today in my account I look and see this:
"REDBACK NETWORKS INC-NEW--Q28-$8.82-T$247.00" (RBAKD)
"WTS-REDBACK NTWK-$5-2JA10-Q29-$8.80-T$255.00" (RBAKW)
"WTS-REDBACK NTW$9.5-2JA10-Q30-$8.00-T$240.00" (RBAKZ)
Huh I say.. HUH indeed. At the split the price was about $0.30.. or $600 value.
Today RBAKD up a $1 so
#1 @ 9.93 = T$277
#2 @ 10.25 = T$297
#3 @ 10.00 = T$300
Total.. $874. .... I am up $274..
Wow a positive consolidation after all.. and they gave us Warrants.. Vultures gave me Warrants.. can you believe this?
To what.. 2010? Jeez.. another tech bubble and I'll be a millionaire.. with all of 29-30 warrants!!
Now you see, if I would have known warrants were included (AKA the book wasn't so thick), I might have actually said - you know what, I'll increase my position a little because the Warrants add a little spark to the investment. Whatever..
If I can get back to even and then even make something, not bad. But my guard goes up if it gets to 50% loss.. which is very close..
Like Godfather - "so why come to me with this generous offer?"
We're having s-e-x.. and Oh.. blake, you can't refuse..
Okay. yes please.. (!!!!!)